凌晨三点，刷到朋友发的朋友圈："表姐失业第 237 天，终于在社区找到了一份月薪 3500 元的网格员工作，每天笑着帮居民跑腿，却在深夜躲在阳台哭 —— 曾经的外企白领，现在连给孩子报钢琴班的底气都没了。"手机屏幕的冷光里，我想起楼下便利店老板娘说的话："今年连矿泉水都卖不动了，以前 每天能卖两箱，现在一周才补一次货。" 这就是 2024 年的现实：全国 3900 万人在失业漩涡里挣扎，45 岁以上的求职者平均投递 100 份简历才换来一次面试，就连体制内的朋友也在说 "绩效腰 斩，年终奖清零"。经济下行的潮水，正漫过每一个普通人的脚踝。 去年冬天，我在夜市遇到摆摊卖袜子的王姐。她曾是某童装品牌的区域经理，疫情后品牌撤柜，投了 80 份简历全石沉大海。"38 岁，没学历，除了卖衣 服啥也不会，总不能在家等着老公养吧？" 现在她每天推着小推车卖袜子，10 元 3 双，赚够孩子的奶粉钱就收摊。 更残酷的是数据：2023 年城镇调查失业率 5.2%，换算成 7.5 亿劳动人口，意味着每 19 个人里就有 1 个在失业。40 岁以上的失业者中，60% 靠父母退休 金或配偶收入度日，30% 被迫从事体力劳动 —— 曾经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at Moutai will not affect its pricing, as the company is primarily influenced by the economic downturn, while it remains the most prosperous in the liquor industry compared to its peers [1][7]. Company Analysis - Moutai's recent leadership changes, including the resignation of Chairman Zhang Deqin, are seen as strategic moves rather than direct solutions to the company's challenges [4][7]. - Zhang Deqin's understanding of Moutai's positioning is highlighted, suggesting that his resignation was a wise decision in light of the broader economic context [4][7]. - The company has shown resilience, with a slight revenue increase of 0.56% to 39.064 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 0.48% to 19.224 billion yuan in recent reports [8]. Industry Context - The overall liquor industry is experiencing significant declines, with major competitors like Wuliangye reporting a staggering 52.66% drop in revenue and a 65.62% decrease in net profit [8]. - The economic downturn is affecting all players in the liquor market, making Moutai's performance relatively better but still subject to the industry's downward trend [7][8]. - The industry is urged to return to the essence of liquor as a flavorful beverage, suggesting that price adjustments should reflect intrinsic value for long-term sustainability [9].

Federal workers missing paychecks, risks to SNAP benefits and companies waiting on permits are creating dangerous economic conditions as the second-longest shutdown in history drags on. ...

#数据1-8月城镇固定资产投资同比增0.5%，创近5年以来最低增速。8月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.2%，增速为一年最低；社会消费品零售销售总额同比增3.4%，增速为自去年11月以来最低。中国8月城镇调查失业率录得5.3%，为6个月以来新高；31个大城市失业率录得5.3%，为去年8月以来新高。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国8月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.2%，预期5.7%；8月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.4%，预期3.9%；8月城镇调查失业率5.3%，预期5.2%；1-8月城镇固定资产投资同比增0.5%，预期1.4%。 https://t.co/Ne0ncqSvWs ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing dissatisfaction among the Indonesian public towards the government under President Prabowo, particularly in the context of economic policies and social inequality [9][10][11] - President Prabowo aims for an 8% GDP growth while not expanding the fiscal deficit, which has led to tensions among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups due to past corruption and inequality [10][11] - A specific policy example is the provision of free lunches for pregnant women and students, which has faced criticism for not including university students and teachers, highlighting the challenges of political support during economic downturns [11][12] Group 2 - The article draws historical parallels between current events and past political turmoil in Indonesia, specifically referencing the events of 1965 and 1998, which were also characterized by elite power struggles masked as public dissent [14][15][16] - The 1965 incident involved the military's rise to power following the assassination of army generals, while the 1998 protests were initially student-led but escalated into broader ethnic violence and political upheaval [15][16][17] - The article emphasizes that the underlying causes of these events often relate to economic downturns and the internal conflicts among Indonesia's elite, rather than solely external influences [14][15][18] Group 3 - The current political landscape in Indonesia is described as having three main factions, with President Prabowo caught between opposition forces and internal elite conflicts, particularly with former President Jokowi [19][20][21] - The article suggests that the outcome of these struggles will depend on who can control the state's security apparatus, which is crucial for maintaining order [22][23] - Potential scenarios include Prabowo consolidating power by weakening Jokowi's influence or a prolonged period of instability, but the author believes that the ultimate outcome will likely not lead to chaos due to the vested interests of powerful families in maintaining stability [23]

Group 1 - Major Japanese cosmetics companies are facing significant challenges, with varying performance across different brands and markets [2][7][30] - Kao Corporation reported a remarkable increase in operating profit by nearly 108%, while other companies like Kose and I-ne experienced declines of 17.7% and 17.0% respectively [2][7] - Several brands under major Japanese cosmetics companies are struggling, with notable declines such as a 57% drop for the brand "Zui Xiang" and decreases for brands like Anessa, Shiseido, Decorte, and POLA [2][10] Group 2 - The Japanese cosmetics market is facing challenges, with a 3.4% decline in the overall market and specific brands like Kose's Sekkisei down by 0.5% [2][30] - The performance in the Chinese market is dragging down overall sales, with many companies planning to withdraw, liquidate, or close stores by 2025 [2][28] - Kao is the only company among the five major Japanese cosmetics groups to show growth across all markets, with increases of 2.4% in the Americas, 3.0% in Europe, and 2.3% overseas [2][30] Group 3 - Shiseido's operating profit turned positive, but net sales showed only a slight increase of 0.82%, indicating ongoing challenges [9][30] - Kose's net sales increased by 0.9%, but its operating profit fell by 17.7%, highlighting the difficulties faced by the company [9][30] - POLA ORBIS reported a decline in net sales by 1.4%, primarily due to reduced sales from its core POLA brand [21][23] Group 4 - I-ne's skincare segment saw a significant increase of 432%, while its hair care segment declined by 10.8% [27][28] - Kao's beauty-related sales for the first half of 2025 reached 211.5 billion yen (approximately 10.32 billion RMB) and 118.5 billion yen (approximately 5.78 billion RMB) for cosmetics, with both segments showing profit growth [13][15] - Kose's high-end brand sales showed mixed results, with Sekkisei growing by 11.4% while other core brands like Decorte faced declines [16][18] Group 5 - The overall performance of Japanese cosmetics companies indicates a need for strategic adjustments, especially in light of economic downturns and increased competition in the Chinese market [37][40] - Companies are exploring growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, but face challenges from numerous competitors in these emerging markets [47][28] - The Japanese domestic market also presents challenges, with brands like Zui Xiang ceasing operations and Kose's Sekkisei facing a slight decline [42][45]

Core Insights - The Thai real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new residential property supply, with only 15,484 new units expected to enter the market in the first half of 2025, reflecting a focus on high-end products aimed at middle to high-income buyers [1][1][1] Market Overview - 99.8% of the new properties are residential, with a total development value of 111.23 billion Thai Baht, and an average price of 7.184 million Thai Baht per unit, indicating a shift towards higher-priced offerings [1][1][1] - If the current trend continues, the total number of new residential units for 2025 is projected to be 30,904, with a total development value of 221.64 billion Thai Baht, representing a 49.7% decrease in unit numbers and a 46.4% decrease in total development value compared to 2024 [1][1][1] Economic Implications - The reduction in residential supply is indicative of a broader economic downturn, suggesting that the real estate market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and cannot independently drive economic growth [1][1][1] - Consumer willingness to purchase homes is closely tied to the economic health of the country or households; a weak economy leads to decreased demand for housing [1][1][1]

Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]