#数据1-8月城镇固定资产投资同比增0.5%，创近5年以来最低增速。8月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.2%，增速为一年最低；社会消费品零售销售总额同比增3.4%，增速为自去年11月以来最低。中国8月城镇调查失业率录得5.3%，为6个月以来新高；31个大城市失业率录得5.3%，为去年8月以来新高。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国8月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.2%，预期5.7%；8月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.4%，预期3.9%；8月城镇调查失业率5.3%，预期5.2%；1-8月城镇固定资产投资同比增0.5%，预期1.4%。 https://t.co/Ne0ncqSvWs ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing dissatisfaction among the Indonesian public towards the government under President Prabowo, particularly in the context of economic policies and social inequality [9][10][11] - President Prabowo aims for an 8% GDP growth while not expanding the fiscal deficit, which has led to tensions among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups due to past corruption and inequality [10][11] - A specific policy example is the provision of free lunches for pregnant women and students, which has faced criticism for not including university students and teachers, highlighting the challenges of political support during economic downturns [11][12] Group 2 - The article draws historical parallels between current events and past political turmoil in Indonesia, specifically referencing the events of 1965 and 1998, which were also characterized by elite power struggles masked as public dissent [14][15][16] - The 1965 incident involved the military's rise to power following the assassination of army generals, while the 1998 protests were initially student-led but escalated into broader ethnic violence and political upheaval [15][16][17] - The article emphasizes that the underlying causes of these events often relate to economic downturns and the internal conflicts among Indonesia's elite, rather than solely external influences [14][15][18] Group 3 - The current political landscape in Indonesia is described as having three main factions, with President Prabowo caught between opposition forces and internal elite conflicts, particularly with former President Jokowi [19][20][21] - The article suggests that the outcome of these struggles will depend on who can control the state's security apparatus, which is crucial for maintaining order [22][23] - Potential scenarios include Prabowo consolidating power by weakening Jokowi's influence or a prolonged period of instability, but the author believes that the ultimate outcome will likely not lead to chaos due to the vested interests of powerful families in maintaining stability [23]

Group 1 - Major Japanese cosmetics companies are facing significant challenges, with varying performance across different brands and markets [2][7][30] - Kao Corporation reported a remarkable increase in operating profit by nearly 108%, while other companies like Kose and I-ne experienced declines of 17.7% and 17.0% respectively [2][7] - Several brands under major Japanese cosmetics companies are struggling, with notable declines such as a 57% drop for the brand "Zui Xiang" and decreases for brands like Anessa, Shiseido, Decorte, and POLA [2][10] Group 2 - The Japanese cosmetics market is facing challenges, with a 3.4% decline in the overall market and specific brands like Kose's Sekkisei down by 0.5% [2][30] - The performance in the Chinese market is dragging down overall sales, with many companies planning to withdraw, liquidate, or close stores by 2025 [2][28] - Kao is the only company among the five major Japanese cosmetics groups to show growth across all markets, with increases of 2.4% in the Americas, 3.0% in Europe, and 2.3% overseas [2][30] Group 3 - Shiseido's operating profit turned positive, but net sales showed only a slight increase of 0.82%, indicating ongoing challenges [9][30] - Kose's net sales increased by 0.9%, but its operating profit fell by 17.7%, highlighting the difficulties faced by the company [9][30] - POLA ORBIS reported a decline in net sales by 1.4%, primarily due to reduced sales from its core POLA brand [21][23] Group 4 - I-ne's skincare segment saw a significant increase of 432%, while its hair care segment declined by 10.8% [27][28] - Kao's beauty-related sales for the first half of 2025 reached 211.5 billion yen (approximately 10.32 billion RMB) and 118.5 billion yen (approximately 5.78 billion RMB) for cosmetics, with both segments showing profit growth [13][15] - Kose's high-end brand sales showed mixed results, with Sekkisei growing by 11.4% while other core brands like Decorte faced declines [16][18] Group 5 - The overall performance of Japanese cosmetics companies indicates a need for strategic adjustments, especially in light of economic downturns and increased competition in the Chinese market [37][40] - Companies are exploring growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, but face challenges from numerous competitors in these emerging markets [47][28] - The Japanese domestic market also presents challenges, with brands like Zui Xiang ceasing operations and Kose's Sekkisei facing a slight decline [42][45]

Core Insights - The Thai real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new residential property supply, with only 15,484 new units expected to enter the market in the first half of 2025, reflecting a focus on high-end products aimed at middle to high-income buyers [1][1][1] Market Overview - 99.8% of the new properties are residential, with a total development value of 111.23 billion Thai Baht, and an average price of 7.184 million Thai Baht per unit, indicating a shift towards higher-priced offerings [1][1][1] - If the current trend continues, the total number of new residential units for 2025 is projected to be 30,904, with a total development value of 221.64 billion Thai Baht, representing a 49.7% decrease in unit numbers and a 46.4% decrease in total development value compared to 2024 [1][1][1] Economic Implications - The reduction in residential supply is indicative of a broader economic downturn, suggesting that the real estate market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and cannot independently drive economic growth [1][1][1] - Consumer willingness to purchase homes is closely tied to the economic health of the country or households; a weak economy leads to decreased demand for housing [1][1][1]

Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the debate on whether money is saved or earned, suggesting that for families with fixed incomes, money is primarily saved [1][2] - It highlights that most families are ordinary and face economic pressures, leading them to prioritize saving over spending [3] - A contrasting perspective is presented where some families are becoming wealthier by practicing extreme consumption downgrading [4] Group 2 - The "Latte Effect" is introduced, illustrating how habitual spending can accumulate significantly over time, leading to lost opportunities for savings [7][8] - The article argues that many perceived necessities, such as housing and luxury goods, are influenced by societal norms rather than actual needs [9] - It emphasizes that true necessities revolve around employment and income generation, rather than consumer goods [10] Group 3 - The article suggests that ordinary families are transitioning from luxury to frugality, benefiting from consumption downgrading in line with current economic trends [11] - Practical advice is provided, such as making detailed purchasing plans to reduce living expenses and being cautious of low-priced items that may not be useful [12][13] - It encourages seeking free learning opportunities and avoiding unnecessary expenditures on courses that may not yield long-term benefits [15] Group 4 - The article calls for ordinary individuals to be mindful of their spending habits and to focus on saving rather than following trends blindly [17] - It warns against the hidden traps in consumer behavior that can lead to financial pitfalls, advocating for a realistic understanding of one's capabilities and the market [18] - The conclusion emphasizes the importance of financial security and peace of mind over material possessions [19]

Core Insights - The mortgage default rate in China has risen to 4.7% in July 2025, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from June and continuing a four-month upward trend, particularly affecting third and fourth-tier cities where the rate has reached 6.8% [1][2] - Economic pressures, including a GDP growth rate of only 4.8% in the first half of 2025, have contributed to declining household income growth, which has fallen to 3.2% compared to 5.8% in the same period of 2022, impacting repayment capabilities [1][2] - The continuous decline in housing prices, with new home prices down 5.7% and second-hand home prices down 6.9% year-on-year, has exacerbated the situation for homebuyers, leading to increased default intentions [2][4] - The financial stability of the banking sector is under threat, with the non-performing loan rate for real estate-related loans rising to 3.7%, and potential new non-performing loans exceeding 400 billion yuan if defaults continue [4][6] - Government and financial institutions are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and adjusting mortgage interest rates [4][6] Economic Factors - The economic downturn is a significant factor, with the National Development and Reform Commission reporting a GDP growth target of 5.2% for 2025, which has not been met [1][7] - The decline in household income growth has directly affected repayment abilities, particularly for high-debt families where mortgage payments exceed 50% of their income [1][2] Housing Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in housing prices has led to a significant number of homebuyers facing negative equity, with some cities experiencing price drops exceeding 15% [2][4] - The number of unfinished housing projects has surpassed 380, affecting nearly 390,000 homeowners, contributing to the rising default rates [2][4] Financial Sector Response - Major banks have increased provisions for potential bad loans, with state-owned banks setting aside over 280 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22.6% increase from the previous year [6][9] - Banks are offering various relief measures, including loan repayment extensions and interest rate adjustments, to assist struggling homeowners [6][9] Future Outlook - The future of the mortgage default rate will depend on macroeconomic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations that policy effects will lead to a peak and subsequent decline in default rates by the end of the year [7][9] - The transition from the previous housing market model to a more sustainable development framework is essential for addressing the underlying issues of mortgage defaults [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has announced an increase in tariffs on Japan to 25% starting August 1, which is expected to negatively impact Japan's economy, particularly its automotive industry [1] Economic Impact - Japan's exports to the U.S. decreased by 11.4% year-on-year in June [1] - The automotive sector experienced a significant decline, with exports falling by 26.7% year-on-year due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Economic experts predict that the U.S. tariff policy will be a major factor contributing to Japan's economic downturn, potentially leading to negative quarterly growth and a yearly GDP growth rate close to zero [1]