日妆持续在走下坡路，且不止在中国市场面临严峻挑战，从整体业绩、业务、地区表现等不同视角看，日妆巨头们也有各自的难题： 海外及除中国外的其他市场(如东南亚泰国)寻增量，花王美洲、欧洲、海外分别增长2.4%、3.0%、2.3%，I-ne清算中国子公司转战东南亚，高丝则致力于 进军海外南方市场并加强泰国店铺布局。 日妆巨头们近年来面临难题已是不争的事实，结合聚美丽梳理的日妆企业最新财报数据来看，还有以下关键信息值得关注： 营业利润冰火两重天：花王暴涨近108%，高丝、I-ne分别下滑17.7%、17.0%； 日妆巨头旗下品牌多陷下滑困境：醉象暴跌57%，安热沙、资生堂品牌、黛珂、POLA分别下滑15%、4%、1.5%、3.2%； 日妆巨头们在日本市场面临部分挑战：如高丝旗下雪肌精下滑0.5%，日本化妆品市场下滑3.4%，醉象日本闭店等； 受中国市场拖累，日妆在包括中国市场在内相关市场下滑占多数，时至2025年，撤退、清算、闭店动向仍不断； 最高大跌18%，日妆巨头们各有难题！ 剔除非化妆品业务后，从2025年上半年五大日妆企业业绩表现来看，仍存挑战。 如下图所示，仅花王营利双增，营业利润大涨107.87%，但净销售 ...

Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]

Core Insights - The mortgage default rate in China has risen to 4.7% in July 2025, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from June and continuing a four-month upward trend, particularly affecting third and fourth-tier cities where the rate has reached 6.8% [1][2] - Economic pressures, including a GDP growth rate of only 4.8% in the first half of 2025, have contributed to declining household income growth, which has fallen to 3.2% compared to 5.8% in the same period of 2022, impacting repayment capabilities [1][2] - The continuous decline in housing prices, with new home prices down 5.7% and second-hand home prices down 6.9% year-on-year, has exacerbated the situation for homebuyers, leading to increased default intentions [2][4] - The financial stability of the banking sector is under threat, with the non-performing loan rate for real estate-related loans rising to 3.7%, and potential new non-performing loans exceeding 400 billion yuan if defaults continue [4][6] - Government and financial institutions are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and adjusting mortgage interest rates [4][6] Economic Factors - The economic downturn is a significant factor, with the National Development and Reform Commission reporting a GDP growth target of 5.2% for 2025, which has not been met [1][7] - The decline in household income growth has directly affected repayment abilities, particularly for high-debt families where mortgage payments exceed 50% of their income [1][2] Housing Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in housing prices has led to a significant number of homebuyers facing negative equity, with some cities experiencing price drops exceeding 15% [2][4] - The number of unfinished housing projects has surpassed 380, affecting nearly 390,000 homeowners, contributing to the rising default rates [2][4] Financial Sector Response - Major banks have increased provisions for potential bad loans, with state-owned banks setting aside over 280 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22.6% increase from the previous year [6][9] - Banks are offering various relief measures, including loan repayment extensions and interest rate adjustments, to assist struggling homeowners [6][9] Future Outlook - The future of the mortgage default rate will depend on macroeconomic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations that policy effects will lead to a peak and subsequent decline in default rates by the end of the year [7][9] - The transition from the previous housing market model to a more sustainable development framework is essential for addressing the underlying issues of mortgage defaults [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has announced an increase in tariffs on Japan to 25% starting August 1, which is expected to negatively impact Japan's economy, particularly its automotive industry [1] Economic Impact - Japan's exports to the U.S. decreased by 11.4% year-on-year in June [1] - The automotive sector experienced a significant decline, with exports falling by 26.7% year-on-year due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Economic experts predict that the U.S. tariff policy will be a major factor contributing to Japan's economic downturn, potentially leading to negative quarterly growth and a yearly GDP growth rate close to zero [1]

Core Insights - In the current unfavorable economic environment, companies are reassessing expenditures, with promotional videos often being cut from budgets. However, these videos are essential for brand building and market expansion, and companies should recognize their value and adopt more efficient strategies to ensure returns on investment [1][11]. Group 1: Value of Promotional Videos - Promotional videos serve as a low-cost tool for shaping brand image, especially during economic downturns when competition intensifies and customer choices become more cautious. They help establish trust quickly and communicate the company's strengths, product advantages, and brand philosophy effectively [3][11]. - Compared to traditional advertising, promotional videos offer long-term dissemination at a lower cost and can be reused across various scenarios such as recruitment, online promotion, and investment solicitation, making them highly cost-effective [3]. Group 2: Efficient Production Strategies - Companies should clearly define their goals and focus on relevant information when creating promotional videos. For instance, if the target is investment solicitation, the emphasis should be on showcasing the company's strengths and success stories, while consumer-focused videos should highlight product features and user experiences [4]. - Utilizing existing resources can significantly reduce production costs. Companies can leverage internal locations, employees, or pre-existing materials to minimize external shooting expenses. Additionally, using lightweight filming equipment or opting for low-cost formats like animations or PowerPoint videos can further cut costs [8]. - Selecting a cost-effective production team is crucial. Companies should compare the works and quotes of small to medium-sized teams, prioritizing those that understand the company's needs and can offer flexible solutions [9]. Group 3: Importance of Brand Building - During economic downturns, companies should focus on brand building rather than completely halting promotional activities. A well-planned promotional video can enhance the company's image at a low cost and support business expansion, laying a foundation for long-term development even with limited budgets [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Taylor, suggests that the likelihood of economic downturn in 2026 is increasing due to weak demand and escalating trade disruptions [1] Group 1 - The potential for economic decline in 2026 is being driven by a combination of weak demand and trade interruptions [1] - The current economic conditions may lead to a deviation from the expected economic trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Swedish Central Bank, Stefan Ingves, indicated that economic growth appears to be weakening, although he does not believe that the current economic downturn will be particularly severe [1] Group 1 - The Swedish economy is experiencing signs of reduced growth [1] - The central bank does not anticipate a significant severity in the current economic downturn [1]

Core Insights - The surge in Chinese household deposits reached 13.21 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, a significant increase of 4.72 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, totaling an astonishing 22.77 trillion yuan in deposit growth. This contrasts sharply with a mere 35.3% household consumption rate, significantly lower than the international average of 60% [1][8]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Deposit Surge - The ongoing pandemic and economic downturn have heightened uncertainty about the future, leading individuals to prioritize savings as a risk management strategy. Many lost their income during lockdowns, realizing the importance of savings [3]. - The sluggish real estate market has also significantly impacted household deposits. The decline in housing demand due to economic pessimism has led families to postpone home purchases, with many cities experiencing a drop in housing prices to levels not seen in three to five years [3][4]. - A lack of safe and reliable investment channels has contributed to the increase in deposits. The stock market's volatility and poor performance of mutual funds have discouraged investment, making bank deposits a relatively safer option despite declining interest rates [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Chinese economy faced numerous challenges in 2022, including repeated pandemic disruptions that severely affected consumer markets. Strict lockdown measures led to a halt in offline consumption, with online shopping unable to compensate for the loss [4]. - Government support provided only basic necessities, forcing consumers to cut back on non-essential spending, further contributing to the increase in savings [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that once the economic targets are met, a stronger response to economic downturns will be possible [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on achieving specific economic targets before adjusting its response to potential economic challenges [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of reaching these targets to enable more robust actions in the face of economic slowdowns [1]