1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market has support currently, but the upward driving force may be limited. The PG futures market shows a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the background of rising external market prices and high - premium support for LPG arrival costs. The spot market has mixed price movements, with some areas in Shandong and North China seeing price cuts, while others remain stable. The overall market atmosphere is okay, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. Overseas supply is relatively abundant, domestic supply is decreasing due to maintenance, port inventories are decreasing, and demand shows an increasing trend in the combustion end with the arrival of winter, while the chemical end demand is relatively stable but profit factors limit the growth space of industry operating rates and raw material demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 20th, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4260 - 4400; Northeast market, 4040 - 4150; North China market, 4250 - 4400; East China market, 4170 - 4350; Yangtze River market, 4510 - 4810; Northwest market, 4300 - 4350; South China market, 4250 - 4450 [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of propane in East China was 567 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 557 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4426 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and butane was 4348 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 559 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4364 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and butane was 4285 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Figures related to LPG spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River) and ether - post carbon four spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, Northwest), as well as PG futures prices (main contract, index, near - month contract), spreads, and trading volume and open interest are provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The PG futures market shows signs of stabilization after continuous declines, but the rebound is limited. The spot prices in domestic regions generally continued to fall. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply and weak downstream demand elasticity. Market pressure persists, but potential support may come from improved chemical profits and raw material switching in cracking units. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff threats, short - term caution is advised [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices on October 15 - Shandong market: 4310 - 4370 yuan/ton [1] - Northeast market: 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton [1] - North China market: 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - East China market: 4200 - 4360 yuan/ton [1] - Yangtze River market: 4670 - 4860 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest market: 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [1] - South China market: 4498 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] November 2025 First - half Import Prices - East China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 537 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 542 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] - South China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 531 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4150 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 536 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4189 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] Market Conditions - The East China civil LPG market's mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with weak transactions and some price concessions. The mainstream transaction price of ether - post carbon four remained stable, with general demand and a cautious wait - and - see attitude [1] - The overall LPG supply - demand pattern is loose, with high exports from the Middle East and North America and potential for further growth. Downstream demand elasticity is weaker than supply due to profit factors [1] - If prices continue to fall, it may drive chemical profit repair and increased buying, forming new support. The low LPG - to - naphtha price difference may lead to raw material switching in cracking units, providing some support to the LPG market [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report - Report Date: April 27, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Xinchao - Investment Bank: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the LPG market will temporarily remain in a state of oscillation. From April 18 - 24, the LPG market gradually returned to fundamentals with the continuous impact of tariff adjustments. The international market prices rose, but the domestic market faced weak demand and increasing inventories [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of April 24, the FEI propane swap increased by 3.4% to $524.86/ton compared to the previous period. The US Gulf MB spot price rose to $456.5/ton due to increased demand from Japan and South Korea. The South China propane frozen cargo arrival price was $654/ton, up $33/ton or 5.38% from the previous period [4]. - **Regional Quotes, Premiums, and Freight**: The report presents historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates for LPG, including the US to the Far East, the Middle East to the Far East, and the US to Europe [9][10]. - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: In the domestic market, civil gas prices in East China and Shandong continued to decline due to weak demand, while prices in South China were boosted by the strengthening international LPG market. The ether - post - carbon - four market continued to decline due to poor terminal gasoline demand [24]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [28][31]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents historical data on LPG exports from Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [33][39]. - **Domestic Supply**: This week, China's propane supply was 704,100 tons, a 43.26% increase from the previous week. Domestic refinery product volume decreased by 5.65% to 40,100 tons, while international vessel arrivals increased by 47.88% to 664,000 tons, mainly in South China. Port inventories increased by 6.59% to 2,840,200 tons [48]. 3.3 Demand - **Chemical Demand**: This week, the domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate was 60.06%, a 3.09% decrease from the previous week. It is expected that the PDH operating rate in China will slightly increase next week. The report also provides historical data on the profits and operating rates of other chemical products such as alkylation, MTBE [52].