液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-21 现货涨跌互现，市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、\t11月20日地区价格：山东市场，4260-4400；东北市场，4040-4150；华北市场，4250-4400；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4510-4810；西北市场，4300-4350；华南市场，4250-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷567美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷557美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4426元/吨，跌5元/吨，丁烷4348元/吨，跌20元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷559美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷549美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4364元/吨，跌20元/吨，丁烷4285元/吨，跌36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期在外盘价格上涨、LPG到岸成本受到高贴水支撑的背景下，PG盘面呈现震荡偏强运行。现货方面，昨日整山 东、华北区域部分下调，其余区域维稳，整体氛围尚可，下游按需采购。就LPG自身基本面而言，海外供应相对 充裕，国内商品受检 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The PG futures market shows signs of stabilization after continuous declines, but the rebound is limited. The spot prices in domestic regions generally continued to fall. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply and weak downstream demand elasticity. Market pressure persists, but potential support may come from improved chemical profits and raw material switching in cracking units. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff threats, short - term caution is advised [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices on October 15 - Shandong market: 4310 - 4370 yuan/ton [1] - Northeast market: 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton [1] - North China market: 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - East China market: 4200 - 4360 yuan/ton [1] - Yangtze River market: 4670 - 4860 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest market: 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [1] - South China market: 4498 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] November 2025 First - half Import Prices - East China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 537 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 542 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] - South China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 531 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4150 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 536 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4189 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] Market Conditions - The East China civil LPG market's mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with weak transactions and some price concessions. The mainstream transaction price of ether - post carbon four remained stable, with general demand and a cautious wait - and - see attitude [1] - The overall LPG supply - demand pattern is loose, with high exports from the Middle East and North America and potential for further growth. Downstream demand elasticity is weaker than supply due to profit factors [1] - If prices continue to fall, it may drive chemical profit repair and increased buying, forming new support. The low LPG - to - naphtha price difference may lead to raw material switching in cracking units, providing some support to the LPG market [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report - Report Date: April 27, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Xinchao - Investment Bank: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the LPG market will temporarily remain in a state of oscillation. From April 18 - 24, the LPG market gradually returned to fundamentals with the continuous impact of tariff adjustments. The international market prices rose, but the domestic market faced weak demand and increasing inventories [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of April 24, the FEI propane swap increased by 3.4% to $524.86/ton compared to the previous period. The US Gulf MB spot price rose to $456.5/ton due to increased demand from Japan and South Korea. The South China propane frozen cargo arrival price was $654/ton, up $33/ton or 5.38% from the previous period [4]. - **Regional Quotes, Premiums, and Freight**: The report presents historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates for LPG, including the US to the Far East, the Middle East to the Far East, and the US to Europe [9][10]. - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: In the domestic market, civil gas prices in East China and Shandong continued to decline due to weak demand, while prices in South China were boosted by the strengthening international LPG market. The ether - post - carbon - four market continued to decline due to poor terminal gasoline demand [24]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [28][31]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents historical data on LPG exports from Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [33][39]. - **Domestic Supply**: This week, China's propane supply was 704,100 tons, a 43.26% increase from the previous week. Domestic refinery product volume decreased by 5.65% to 40,100 tons, while international vessel arrivals increased by 47.88% to 664,000 tons, mainly in South China. Port inventories increased by 6.59% to 2,840,200 tons [48]. 3.3 Demand - **Chemical Demand**: This week, the domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate was 60.06%, a 3.09% decrease from the previous week. It is expected that the PDH operating rate in China will slightly increase next week. The report also provides historical data on the profits and operating rates of other chemical products such as alkylation, MTBE [52].