Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile rebound, with the ChiNext index leading the gains, while major indices opened lower on Wednesday [1] - Agricultural stocks continued to show strength, while Apple concept stocks declined; sectors such as grains, supermarkets, and seed concepts saw significant gains [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) expressed support for central enterprises to actively increase share buybacks and enhance shareholder value [1] Group 2 - Orient Securities noted that during market panic, stock ETFs often act as a "reverse market indicator," with significant capital buying more as prices fall, which may help restore market sentiment [2] - The technical analysis indicated that the market has broken below a key support level, suggesting a continued downward trend, but potential policy support may limit further declines [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the central enterprise technology ETF (560170) linked fund for sector investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts of recent tariff increases by the U.S., suggesting that the U.S. may face recession or stagflation, while China could continue its M-shaped recovery. Countries with significant trade exposure may experience economic headwinds. The recommendation is to overweight gold and Chinese bonds, while underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities [1][4][12]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced a general 10% tariff on imports, with countries having large trade deficits facing tariffs exceeding 30%. This escalation in tariffs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a risk-off sentiment in global assets, resulting in declines in global stocks and commodities [3][4]. - The tariff impact was anticipated, as previous analyses indicated that the market underestimated the negative effects of Trump's policies, predicting that the U.S. economy would struggle to maintain a balanced growth path [5][11]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face a downward trend, with consumption and investment showing signs of decline. The potential paths for the U.S. economy include stagflation (high inflation and low growth) and recession (low inflation and low growth) [11][12]. - In contrast, China's economy is projected to follow a "weak recovery" path, supported by policy stimulus, with expectations of an M-shaped growth trajectory similar to the previous year. China's inflation remains significantly lower than that of the U.S., allowing for more flexibility in counter-cyclical policies [11][12]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - To mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, the recommendation is to overweight safe assets such as gold and Chinese bonds. Historical data shows that safe assets tend to perform well during significant declines in U.S. stocks [12][13]. - Gold is highlighted as a key asset due to its inflation-hedging properties, with projections suggesting a long-term price range of $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. Recent price declines are attributed to market sentiment rather than liquidity issues [17][19]. - The recommendation for U.S. bonds is cautious due to high uncertainty, while Chinese bonds are expected to perform well as monetary policy may counteract the negative effects of tariffs [19][20]. Stock Market Strategy - The article advises underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities, with a focus on high-dividend and policy-benefiting stocks in China. The recent declines in U.S. stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicate a significant adjustment risk [20][22]. - Historical analysis suggests that after a 20% decline in U.S. stocks, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, but these often occur after clear policy shifts [20][22]. Conclusion on Global Economic Dynamics - The economic performance of countries outside the U.S. may depend on their trade exposure to the U.S. and the extent of tariff increases. Countries with high reliance on exports to the U.S. may face significant economic risks due to the tariff pressures [11][12][26]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic landscape and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and their implications for global markets [11][12][26].