策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 美联储降息周期启动下的全球资产分化 ——全球大类资产配置周报 2025 年 09 月 28 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理：孔玥 相关研究 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规展展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07-22，公募基金二季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-07-16，A 股风格转换的历史复盘与回测分析 2025-07-15，2025 年中央城市工作会议内容解读：中央 城市工作会议利好 A 股市场那些板块？ 2025-06-26，2025 年大类资产中期投资展望：驭变谋势 2025-06-22，2025 年港股中期投资展望：时移世易，见 机而作 2025-06- ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate Analysis - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Chinese yuan, attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The article also highlights the potential for a stronger yuan supported by pending settlement funds [4]. Group 3: Policy and Market Opportunities - The analysis from February 9, 2025, points out the market opportunities arising from the "fermentation period" of policies, focusing on proactive fiscal measures and specific industry policies [5]. - On May 11, 2025, the article suggests that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, which could positively influence market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, analysis warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may need to be reconsidered as the market undergoes rebalancing [5]. - The article discusses the distance of long-term bond yields from 2% to 1%, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach to bond investments [5]. Group 5: U.S. Dollar and Global Currency Trends - The article from April 20, 2025, raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and the potential weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status, which may lead to capital flows towards the euro and other assets [6]. - On July 8, 2025, it is noted that while a weaker dollar and "de-dollarization" are distinct concepts, the anticipated interest rate cuts could support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [7]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - The August 16, 2025, analysis highlights a shift in market focus towards the U.S. labor market, with inflation pressures easing, suggesting a potential return of capital to the U.S. [8]. - The article also indicates that despite a recent consolidation in A-shares, investor sentiment remains bullish, with a continued possibility of a "stock-gold seesaw" effect [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB), attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The analysis on July 8, 2025, differentiates between a weak dollar and the concept of "de-dollarization," suggesting that anticipated interest rate cuts may support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [9]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, commentary warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may be shifting [5]. - The article highlights the potential for a rebalancing of investment strategies in the bond market, moving away from traditional linear thinking [5]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Signals - The article from May 11, 2025, points to positive signals from policy developments, suggesting that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [6]. - The June 15, 2025, analysis draws parallels between the current economic environment in Hong Kong and previous periods, suggesting that a weaker Hong Kong dollar and low interest rates could benefit the Hong Kong stock market [7]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Trends - The August 16, 2025, piece notes that inflation pressures have eased, leading the market to focus on the "weak balance" in the U.S. labor market, with a shift towards interest rate cut trades and capital inflows into the U.S. [10]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note regarding gold prices, indicating that market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may already be priced in, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the A-share market [11].

当下的全球金融市场正悄然进入一个微妙的等待时刻，所有目光都聚焦于北京时间9月18日凌晨。 美联储将在此时公布9月利率决议，为当前的货币宽松周期写下新的注脚。 CMEFedWatch工具显示，市场对9月降息的预期概率已飙升至90%以上，并逐步定价今年降息3次（9月、10月、12月）的 可能性。 这不仅是2025年以来的首次降息，更标志着自2024年9月开启的本轮货币宽松周期，迎来又一次关键转向。 在这充满不确定性的十字路口，资产配置何去何从？ 本轮降息有何异于过往的特殊性？ 当下布局又需把握哪些核心要点？ 今日一文说清。 01 本轮美联储重启降息 ——非典型预防式降息的独特性 如果要读懂本轮降息的本质，需要先回溯历史的脉络。回顾1984年以来美联储的历次降息，虽然看起来都是调整货币政 策，但由于背景和目的不同，实际上可清晰地划分为纾困式降息和预防式降息两类。 所谓纾困式降息，本质是美联储应对美国经济衰退的紧急补救措施。 当经济陷入下行周期、衰退风险显性化时，美联储通过大幅、多次降息释放流动性，以对冲经济收缩压力，其特点是降息 次数多、幅度大。 而预防式降息，则是未雨绸缪的操作。 当经济尚未陷入衰退，但已面临潜在 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]

国泰海通证券研报称，中债"熊陡"，美债"牛平"。（1）中债：收益率曲线整体上移，10Y-2Y 期限利差 扩大，呈"熊陡"特征。AAA 级信用债收益率普遍上行，长端信用利差边际扩大。（2）美债：收益率曲 线整体下移，10Y-1Y 期限利差收窄，呈"牛平"特征。鲍威尔在 8 月 22 日杰克逊霍尔经济会议上指出， 经济风险平衡正在变化，借贷成本拖累经济，劳动力市场趋弱，通胀风险可控。这释放出 9 月大概率降 息的信号。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in global risk appetite driven by expectations of a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a rebound in major stock indices and significant movements in commodities and currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices globally experienced a rebound, with the Russian RTS index leading gains due to anticipated meetings between US and Russian leaders [2]. - In developed markets, US stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3% [2]. - Emerging markets also showed strong performance, particularly the Russian RTS which increased by 7.9%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index which surged by 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [3]. - In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bear flattening" characteristic, with the yield curve moving upward and a near 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. Group 3: Commodities and Currencies - Oil prices faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to significantly increase production in September, reversing previous cuts and alleviating supply concerns [3]. - The British pound strengthened despite the Bank of England's cautious rate cut, as inflation rates rebounded to 3.6% in May and June [3].

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The first meeting between US and Russian leaders in four years is scheduled for August 15, which may impact geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US has imposed additional tariffs on India, leading to a pause in defense cooperation [1] - The Federal Reserve's personnel changes are raising expectations for interest rate cuts in September, while the Bank of Japan hints at potential future rate hikes [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - July's CPI remained flat year-on-year, while core CPI has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a mild improvement in macroeconomic conditions [1] - The decline in PPI has narrowed, reflecting the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Foreign trade growth reached a year-to-date high, with both imports and exports showing year-on-year increases [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with margin trading balances returning to 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but ended higher, driven by a weakening labor market and expectations of Fed rate cuts, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] - Oil prices saw a decline due to heightened trade tensions between the US and India, raising concerns over demand, while OPEC+ continues to increase production [1] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - US Treasury yields rose slightly as Fed officials maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, increasing uncertainty around rapid rate cuts [2] - Chinese bond yields fell slightly due to stable inflation indicators, supporting expectations for moderate monetary easing [2] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The US dollar index fell as July non-farm payroll growth slowed and unemployment rose to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw fluctuations, supported by the US 10-year Treasury yield maintaining an advantage over Japanese bonds [3] Group 6: Equity Market Performance - Global stock markets performed well, buoyed by weaker US non-farm data that enhanced expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting risk appetite [3] - US tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, further supporting market confidence [3]