Global Asset Performance - The global market has shifted from policy pricing to risk pricing, with geopolitical factors becoming the main source of short-term volatility [5][6] - Domestic policies continue to focus on stable growth, with the LPR remaining unchanged and a commitment to more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [5][6] - Strong consumer data shows a year-on-year increase of 13.7% in consumption during the Spring Festival, indicating resilience in domestic demand [5] Commodity Market Precious Metals - International gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising from $4,659.29 per ounce at the beginning of the month to $5,278.26 per ounce by February 28, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar [11][12] - The decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by 29 basis points to 3.97% has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its price [11][12] - The structural support for gold prices remains intact due to ongoing central bank purchases and the weakening of the dollar's credit [12] Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices increased from $71.49 per barrel to $72.84 per barrel, primarily driven by geopolitical risk premiums following military actions in the Middle East [14][15] - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, and any disruption could significantly impact prices [14][15] - Despite geopolitical tensions, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels, indicating supply-side pressures that could limit price increases [15] Bond Market U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 10-year yield down 11 basis points to 3.97%, driven by heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [17][21] - The decline in yields is also influenced by uncertainty surrounding trade policies and inflation expectations, which have increased market volatility [17][21] - Short-term yields are more sensitive to monetary policy expectations, while long-term yields are influenced by inflation and fiscal dynamics [21][25] Chinese Bond Yields - Chinese bond yields also decreased, with the 10-year yield falling below 1.80%, supported by a stable liquidity environment and expectations of a lower interest rate framework [24][25] - The demand for medium to long-term bonds has increased due to a slow economic recovery and heightened volatility in equity markets [24][25] Foreign Exchange Market U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index weakened, closing at 97.64, primarily due to policy expectations and uncertainties affecting its valuation [30][31] - The dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished, with funds flowing more into gold and U.S. Treasuries amid geopolitical tensions [30][31] Non-U.S. Currencies - The euro showed slight strength against the dollar, closing at 1.1815, supported by stable monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone [36] - The Japanese yen experienced fluctuations, closing at 156.09, influenced by trade policy uncertainties and Japan's cautious monetary stance [36] Equity Market - Global equity markets displayed significant divergence, with U.S. stocks declining while non-U.S. markets performed relatively well [41][42] - U.S. stock indices fell due to concerns over AI's impact on corporate earnings and rising trade policy uncertainties, particularly affecting technology and financial sectors [41][42] - In contrast, Asian markets, including Japan and A-shares, benefited from improved risk sentiment and a favorable liquidity environment [41][42]

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | --- | --- | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision next Thursday, with a 97.2% probability of maintaining the current rate, and attention will be on Powell's statements [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair may be announced as early as next week, introducing various uncertainties [1] - Several major U.S. companies are set to release their earnings reports next week [1] Group 2 - The U.S. PCE price data, scheduled for release next Thursday at 21:30, is anticipated to be significant [1] - Gold and silver prices have surged this week, with gold nearing $5000, while oil prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are declining, and it is crucial to manage bond investments effectively [1] Group 3 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are showing extreme divergence, with a focus on small-cap stocks and potential regulatory measures [1][3] - U.S. stocks have been stagnant for nearly three months, indicating a need for investment hedging strategies [1] - Japanese stocks are undergoing a correction, necessitating management of currency risk [1] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is facing selling pressure, leading to the Chinese yuan appreciating against the dollar, surpassing the 7 mark, with attention on further appreciation signals next week [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the changing rankings of major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, highlighting Japan, the UK, and China as the top three holders, with China experiencing a slight decrease in holdings from approximately $688.7 billion to $682.6 billion [1][3] - The narrative around China's drop in ranking is oversimplified; the U.S. Treasury market is influenced by various factors such as interest rates, inflation, and supply-demand dynamics, rather than just the actions of a single country [3][6] - The structure of foreign investment in China's bond market shows that foreign institutions primarily hold government bonds, with a notable shift towards more stable assets as opposed to more sensitive instruments like interbank certificates [6][9] Group 2 - The influx of funds into U.S. assets is significant, particularly from European investors, which has contributed to record high levels of foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries despite some reductions from other investors [11][12] - The changing buyer structure of U.S. Treasuries indicates a rising proportion of private funds, which tend to react more quickly to market fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [12][13] - Central banks and large institutions are diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, indicating a trend towards risk management and a more balanced approach to asset allocation [15][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing relatively small fluctuations compared to the equity market, with a notable "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds becoming less pronounced [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in re-lending quotas, indicating a focus on structural tools rather than broad monetary policy [2] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is set to be more proactive, with a commitment to maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure, ensuring that overall spending increases while key areas remain robust [3] Group 2 - Recent movements in overseas long-term yields, particularly in the US and Japan, have had limited direct impact on China's bond market, although they reflect broader economic concerns [4] - The reversal of yen carry trades may continue to disrupt markets, potentially benefiting safe-haven assets like gold, while the direct influence on China's bond market remains limited [5] - The overall macroeconomic environment remains unchanged, with the bond market under pressure and the "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds expected to return, although short-term drivers for the bond market are limited [6]

Group 1 - The global financial market in 2025 is characterized by significant changes, with gold emerging as a key asset due to rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's credit system [1][3] - International gold prices have reached historical highs over fifty times in the year, with London gold experiencing a remarkable annual increase of 64.56%, establishing its status as a core strategic asset [1][3] - The rise of gold is rooted in deep changes in the global economy and monetary order, with U.S. government debt at high levels and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to a nearly 30-year low [3] Group 2 - The China Banking Corporation has shown exceptional foresight in its assessment of gold trends, consistently advocating for gold as a strategic asset since 2023, leading to cumulative investor returns of nearly 150% by the end of 2025 [4] - The 2025 Personal Financial Global Asset Allocation White Paper accurately predicted trends in the A-share market, RMB exchange rate, and bond market, confirming the bank's professional insights [5] - The report indicated that the A-share market would experience a slow bull pattern, with trading volume exceeding 420 trillion yuan and margin financing balances rising to 2.5 trillion yuan [5] Group 3 - The latest 2026 Personal Financial Global Asset Allocation White Paper provides clear guidance for asset allocation, prioritizing precious metals, non-ferrous metals, equities, and bonds [6] - Gold is expected to maintain its long-term potential for new highs, while the A-share market is anticipated to benefit from global easing and domestic capital inflows [6] - The report forecasts that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations, and the yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.9% [6] Group 4 - The China Banking Corporation emphasizes a long-term investment philosophy, utilizing professional research and scientific methods to help clients build resilient asset portfolios that can withstand market cycles [7] - The bank aims to guide investors in seizing global asset opportunities through systematic and disciplined asset allocation strategies [7]

Asset Allocation Insights - Prioritize equity assets in asset allocation, with commodities showing long-term value and bonds requiring strict control of long-end risks[2] - A-shares are entering a "slow bull" phase supported by policy and debt-equity ratio advantages, while US stocks benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains[2] - Commodity prices are supported by AI-driven resource pricing, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums"[2] Investment Strategies - Risk-seeking strategies should focus on "strong rate cuts + strong AI" combinations, emphasizing small and large-cap growth stocks and gold for high elastic returns[2] - Defensive strategies can adopt "strong rate cuts + weak AI" with long bonds, gold, and large-cap value stocks to secure stable returns and control drawdowns[2] - Low-volatility strategies may consider "weak rate cuts + weak AI" with cash and large-cap value stocks to lock in certain returns and avoid market volatility[2] Performance Metrics - Quadrant III (strong rate cuts + weak AI) shows the most stable performance with an annualized return of 16.67% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.48, with a maximum drawdown of -3.90%[11] - Quadrant I (strong rate cuts + strong AI) has a peak annual return of 40.15% in 2025, despite a -15% drawdown in 2023[11] - Quadrant II (weak rate cuts + strong AI) experienced a significant drawdown of -32.42% in 2023 but rebounded with a 29.35% return in 2025[11] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties in overseas monetary policy, geopolitical and trade disruptions, unexpected liquidity tightening, and potential tech valuation bubbles[54]