1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply side has been affected by Australian weather, and the demand side shows a trend of iron - water production resumption, with the port inventory situation improving marginally [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - related issues. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a better fundamental performance [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the short - term supply - demand structure is relatively loose. The price is not expected to rebound significantly in the short term, but coal prices may be supported in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [15][16] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.480%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 976,400 lots, a decrease of 99,718 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.272%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, an increase of 6,457 tons. The position of the main contract was 846,800 lots, a decrease of 72,722 lots. The Le Cong aggregated price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory is being depleted smoothly, but there is no trend - upward driving force [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The position changed by - 15,823 lots to 371,400 lots. The weighted position was 900,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 21.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.62% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipment has significantly declined recently. Australian shipments have recovered after being affected by cyclones, and Brazilian shipments have reached a high level. The demand side shows an upward trend in iron - water production, and the port inventory has continued to decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.12% at 6588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6400 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the disk price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the disk [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.90% at 6066 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6150 yuan/ton, a premium of 84 yuan/ton to the disk [8] Strategy Views - The geopolitical situation affects the market. The black sector may be supported, and coal prices may be beneficial to the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Future market trends are affected by sector - wide trends and cost - related factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.41% at 1214.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal had different premiums to the disk [12] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.09% at 1753.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coke had different premiums or discounts to the disk [12] Strategy Views - The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Although there are some positive factors such as downstream replenishment, there is no strong support for a significant price rebound in the short term. The price of coking coal is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [14][15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8480 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (- 145). The weighted contract position increased by 7235 lots to 375,855 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with different basis values [18] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 36,550 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.44% (+870). The weighted contract position increased by 975 lots to 53,506 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon had different changes, with a basis of 2700 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Views - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1040 yuan/ton, down 0.10% (- 1). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (- 1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,288 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 34,658 lots [24] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, down 1.79% (- 22). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (- 1.09%), with different changes in heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased 22,035 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 16,324 lots [26] Strategy Views - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27]

Market Trends - The capital market has shifted from pricing "inflation" to initially pricing "recession" as geopolitical tensions escalate[6] - If the conflict does not stabilize by April, "recession" will be formally priced in[11] Economic Indicators - WTI crude oil futures rose to $101.18 per barrel, up 2.4% from the previous week[9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 3.23%[10] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased to 4.44%, reaching a 12-month high[10] Currency and Commodity Performance - The U.S. dollar index closed at 100.05, up 0.75 points, while non-U.S. currencies continued to face pressure[10] - The Chinese yuan depreciated minimally against the dollar, closing at 6.91, indicating relative strength[10] Global Market Reactions - The KOSPI index in South Korea saw the largest decline, down 5.92%, while the DAX and CAC40 indices fell by 11.8% and 10.24%, respectively[10] - Chinese assets performed relatively better, with the CSI 300 index down 1.41%[10] Policy Developments - The central bank emphasized the need for financial stability and regulatory upgrades in response to market conditions[6] - The digital yuan wallet upgrade aims to enhance the internationalization of the yuan, currently holding a 3.1% share in global payments[6]

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from an "inflation" pricing logic to a "recession" pricing logic, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic indicators [5][10] - The U.S. stock indices have shown significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 2.12%, and Nasdaq Composite down 3.23% [5][9] - Chinese assets have performed relatively better, with the CSI 300 index down 1.41% and the 10-year government bond yield slightly decreasing from 1.83% to 1.82% [5][9] Group 2 - The global capital market is currently dominated by geopolitical conflicts, with major stock indices experiencing declines, particularly in South Korea and Europe due to their reliance on energy imports [9][36] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.44%, marking a 12-month high, while the dollar index has strengthened, putting pressure on non-U.S. currencies [9][39] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors in the A-share market, with the energy sector showing resilience while technology and consumer sectors faced declines [31][34] Group 3 - The report discusses significant policy developments, including the introduction of standards for "light asset, high R&D" companies to facilitate financing, aligning with national strategic goals [43][45] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on enhancing financial stability through technology empowerment and regulatory reforms, particularly in high-frequency trading and derivatives [43][44] - The digital RMB wallet upgrade is expected to promote the internationalization of the RMB, enhancing its acceptance in global payment systems [45][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has shown an overall recovery in risk appetite. However, the sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict at the end of February has changed the market narrative, leading to a shift from betting on economic expansion to trading stagflation expectations [1]. - In the second quarter, the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict will be the core contradiction in global macro - pricing, reversing three major consensuses formed in the market from late 2025 to early 2026. The market may evolve along the main line of "first trading stagflation, then pricing recession" [2]. - Against the backdrop of rising global stagflation risks, China's economic cycle is undergoing a structural reshaping. The second - quarter asset allocation should follow the core principle of "defensive counter - attack" [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Global Macro - environment Analysis - **Core Contradiction**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle - East in the second quarter of 2026 is the most core variable in the global market, reversing three major core expectations at the global macro - level [5][6]. - **Reversal of Three Core Expectations**: - **Fed's interest - rate cut expectation**: It will enter a cooling and observation period in the second quarter due to factors such as the inflation push from the Middle - East conflict, the uncertainty of the Wash hearing, the unmet conditions for rate cuts, and the conflict's underlying logic conflicting with rate - cut demands [7]. - **Global economic growth expectation**: The expectation of smooth global economic growth has been broken. The risk of recession has been fully priced into risk - asset prices and volatility structures [11]. - **US dollar depreciation expectation**: The expectation of a significant and trend - based decline in the US dollar index has failed. The US dollar will enter an oscillatory observation period in the second quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Underlying Logic of the US Initiating the Conflict**: - **Core political goal**: Use a controlled increase in energy prices to replace rate cuts, achieving the core political goals of capital repatriation to the US and propping up the US stock market [21]. - **Geopolitical strategy**: Strengthen energy hegemony, restructure the global supply chain, and lock in key resources [22]. - **Political appeal**: Transfer domestic contradictions and consolidate the political base [24]. - **Global power - politics layout**: Force European allies to take sides, strengthen NATO's control, and complete the global power - politics layout [25]. - **Analysis of the Conflict's Evolution Rhythm**: - **Expected rhythm**: The US may expect the conflict to intensify in March, leading to a rise in oil prices and a general adjustment of risk assets. In April - May, after achieving phased results, it will withdraw strategically, guiding oil prices to decline moderately [36]. - **Adjustment of judgment**: The time window for the end of the war is adjusted to "May - June" or "before summer", with corresponding probability weights of 30% for ending before the end of April, 40% for ending in May - June, and 30% for continuing after summer [39]. - **Analysis of Supply - shock Reversibility under Different War Durations**: - **Short - term war scenario**: If the war ends before the end of April, the energy supply shock can be mostly repaired through post - war production capacity catch - up, with the annual net loss of crude - oil supply controlled within 300 - 500 million barrels, accounting for 0.8% - 1.2% of global annual consumption [39]. - **Long - term war scenario**: If the war lasts for more than 3 months, the annual crude - oil supply loss will be in the "irreparable" range, and a significant demand destruction may occur, leading to a global economic recession [40]. - **Analysis of Asset Performance under Different War Scenarios**: - **Scenario 1**: If the war ends before the end of April, the supply shock is "pulse - type". Asset prices will quickly return to the pre - conflict logic. Crude - oil prices will decline, gold will face a short - term correction, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US stock market will rebound, the US dollar index will fall, and emerging markets and the Chinese market will experience a valuation repair [54]. - **Scenario 2**: If the war lasts for more than 2 months, the supply shock will become "persistent". The market will enter stagflation trading and then switch to recession pricing. Crude - oil prices will rise, gold will enter a bull market, the US Treasury yield curve will flatten or deepen the inversion, the US stock market will face a "double - kill" of earnings and valuation, the US dollar will first rise and then fall, and emerging markets will be severely differentiated [56]. Chapter 3: Inflection - point Signals of the Global Asset - pricing Anchor - **Core Driver of the Abnormal Movement of the 2 - year US Treasury Yield**: It is driven by the "war - energy - inflation - policy expectation" vicious transmission chain triggered by the US - Israel - Iran war since February 2026, showing a typical "spontaneous interest - rate hike" [66]. - **Second - quarter Trend Judgment**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield is likely to show a trend of "inertial upward rush - high - level topping - inflection - point confirmation", with the main fluctuation range between 3.50% - 4.20%, and may challenge the previous high of 5.0% in an extreme stagflation scenario [69]. - **Core Observation Nodes and Defensive Position - layout Strategies**: - **Three key verification nodes**: April 6th is the core geopolitical window; mid - to late April is the data - verification period; May - June is the top - confirmation period [75]. - **Defensive position - layout strategies**: In the first half of April, hedge against risks by underweighting or shorting high - valuation growth stocks, optional consumer stocks, and cyclical varieties, shorting industrial metals and black - series varieties, and going long on the US dollar index. After late April, go long on 2 - year/5 - year US Treasury futures, gold, and short commodity - linked currencies, and gradually take profits on the US dollar long position. Also, configure long positions in crude oil and inflation - protected bonds to hedge against extreme scenarios [79]. Chapter 4: Domestic Macro - environment Analysis - **Three Fundamental Reshaping Trends of the Domestic Economic Cycle**: - **Economic growth smoothing**: The dominance of aggregate demand has shifted from the private sector to the government sector, and fiscal policy has become the dominant force in economic fluctuations [82]. - **Structural supply surplus**: The traditional price - transmission logic has failed, and it is difficult to start an inflation cycle due to the low utilization rate of industrial production capacity [83]. - **Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies**: Fiscal policy has become the core variable in money supply and credit expansion, suppressing the cyclical fluctuations of the economy [83]. - **Impact of the US - Israel - Iran Conflict on the Domestic Economy**: - **Analysis of two mainstream narratives**: The view that the energy - supply shock will bring substantial benefits to the Chinese economy and that PPI turning positive will reverse the deflation pattern is inaccurate. Cost - push inflation cannot reverse deflation but may intensify stagflation risks [88][93]. - **Analysis of corporate profit and inflation**: Only demand - driven inflation can improve corporate profits and break the deflation cycle, while cost - push inflation will squeeze corporate profits and strengthen the deflationary negative cycle [95][101]. - **The 15th Five - Year Plan Outline**: - **Core strategic anchor**: It is the core strategic anchor for the long - term pricing of the Chinese capital market, with a clear causal - transmission chain from policy text to industrial supply - demand to asset pricing [107]. - **Investment guidance effectiveness**: There is a clear ranking of sector heterogeneity in the guidance effectiveness of the plan. The full - cycle core investment main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan are highly focused, and the annual core strategy is "defensive counter - attack" [108]. Chapter 5: Asset - allocation Strategy for the Second Quarter of 2026 - **Core strategy**: The market's core main line in the second quarter of 2026 is "first trading stagflation, then turning to recession pricing". The overall strategy is based on "defensive counter - attack". In the first half of April, focus on risk hedging and defensive layout. After late April, if the signal of demand contraction is confirmed, carry out a counter - attack layout around the recession - trading main line and the industrial main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are still in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues. For coking coal and coke, the short - term price rebound lacks sufficient fundamental support, and the long - term outlook for coking coal is optimistic. For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate, and for polysilicon, the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom. For glass and soda ash, both are expected to show a narrow - range shock pattern [2][5][10][14][17][20][23][25] Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,124 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, a net increase of 1,525 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0762 million lots, a net decrease of 91,050 lots. The spot market prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 539,561 tons, a net increase of 5,882 tons. The position of the main contract was 919,500 lots, a net decrease of 42,727 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The new construction starts still showed a large decline in the context of the low base in the same period last year, indicating that the recovery momentum of the real - estate investment side is still insufficient. The short - term support from real estate for steel demand is limited, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. Rebar shows both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in inventory, presenting a neutral overall performance [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-5.00), and the position changed by -20,782 lots to 387,200 lots. The weighted position was 900,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 22.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.74% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas ore shipments continued to rise. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output increased by 29,400 tons to 231,090 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and the hot - metal output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to improve slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 27, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.27% at 6,580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6,350 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.50% at 6,012 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton to the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high of over 6,700 yuan/ton during the week, and then declined, with a weekly increase of 184 yuan/ton or +2.87%. The ferrosilicon price rose at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated downward, with a weekly increase of 96 yuan/ton or +1.61% [7][8] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - held non - ferrous metals and short - held black metals. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the price of alloys. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market for both is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 27, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1,219.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had different premiums to the futures. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.51% at 1,752.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang also had different premiums or discounts to the futures. Last week, the coking coal price rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 64 yuan/ton or +5.29%. The coke price followed the coking coal price up at the beginning of the week and then declined, with a weekly increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or +1.39% [12][13] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the coal price. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There is not enough fundamental support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. It is recommended to take short - term long - side operations or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about the coking coal price in the medium - to - long term [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of -1.26% (-110). The weighted contract position changed by -1,903 lots to 368,620 lots. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged. For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of +0.39% (+140). The weighted contract position changed by +1,047 lots to 52,531 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [16][18] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with insufficient improvement in demand to drive prices. Polysilicon continues to be in a negative - feedback adjustment state, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [17][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1,036 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.99% (-21). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32,418 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 45,523 lots. For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.53% (-19). The spot price in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (-1.09%), with an increase in heavy - soda ash inventory and a decrease in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 12,455 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 26,503 lots [22][24] Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market performed poorly last week. The spot trading was light, and the terminal demand recovery was less than expected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,050 yuan/ton. The soda ash market is in a game between short - term supply tightening and weak demand, with prices showing a narrow - range adjustment. The main contract reference range is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [23][25]

Group 1 - The core contradiction of the current global market volatility is not solely focused on the rise in oil prices, but rather on whether the shipping efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage for global energy and industrial raw materials, continues to be impaired [9][10] - The impact of rising energy prices is shifting from an initial price shock (increasing inflation and interest rate expectations) to a supply shock (disruption of channels, raw material shortages, production contraction, and growth damage), fundamentally changing the risk nature from "cost increase" to "supply loss" [9][10] - The current economic environment, inventory buffers, and policy space differ significantly, making this energy crisis more likely to evolve into a recession rather than a full-blown stagflation [10][16] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in more stubborn inflation and a more hawkish central bank policy, leading to a tightening of liquidity [22][26] - The stock market has already reflected expectations of slowing growth, with cyclical sectors significantly underperforming defensive sectors, indicating that the market has not fully accounted for the risks of growth downgrades [26][37] - Observations for whether a full recession trade will emerge include the sustained rise in long-term oil and gas futures prices, the relative performance of cyclical versus defensive sectors, and the weakening of AI-related assets [37][38] Group 3 - High oil prices will suppress the valuations of most financial assets through inflation, policy, and growth channels, with only energy assets benefiting directly [38][39] - Gold is experiencing high volatility due to liquidity risks and geopolitical uncertainties, but its long-term logic remains intact [38][45] - The attack on aluminum plants in the Middle East has intensified supply tightness, opening up upward space for aluminum prices [38][49] Group 4 - The A-share market's recent adjustments are primarily driven by external shocks from geopolitical conflicts, and there is no need for excessive pessimism in the short term [55] - Focus should be on industries with price increase logic due to supply constraints, such as oil and chemical sectors, and sectors with independent industrial trends like energy storage and domestic AIDC [55][56]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East is seen as a significant indicator of the decline of U.S. comprehensive national power, which may lead to a new peak in gold prices as the market begins to price in the potential loss of the conflict [2][39]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Since March, gold prices have experienced a rapid correction, reminiscent of the "Wash trade" in January, driven by high market congestion and expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [3]. - The initial adjustment in gold prices was triggered by the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, which led to a significant strengthening of oil and the dollar, creating liquidity tightening expectations [3]. - As of March 23, the overnight swap market began pricing in an expected 0.8 rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, with other central banks also expected to raise rates [3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment - Short-term technical indicators for gold show oversold conditions, but a clear reversal trend has not yet emerged, with the RSI dropping to an extreme value of 21.1 as of March 23 [8]. - The implied volatility of gold continues to rise, indicating increased uncertainty among options investors regarding future price movements, suggesting that the market still needs to digest recent changes [8]. - The gold-oil ratio has fallen to 41, approaching levels seen during previous significant corrections, indicating that gold may have overshot in the short term [8]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Historical data suggests that during periods of stagflation, gold tends to trend upwards despite rising policy rates, as seen during the oil crises of the 1970s [20]. - Current economic indicators show signs of stagnation in the U.S., with consumer spending growth slowing and unemployment risks increasing, which could accelerate the onset of recession [23]. - The potential for a recession may prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess liquidity risks, possibly leading to a return of some speculative investors to the gold market [23]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. military's limited success in the Middle East could undermine the dollar's dominance, particularly if Iran's countermeasures disrupt the oil-dollar link [34]. - Rising interest rates may hinder U.S. fiscal strategies, leading to a gradual erosion of dollar credibility, which could be reflected in the market's pricing of gold [36]. - The ongoing military engagement in the Middle East is viewed as the fourth significant depletion of dollar credibility, with the market likely to respond by pushing gold prices higher as the situation evolves [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginal improvement and inventory is gradually being reduced, there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances to the price [5]. - In the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - allocated non - ferrous metals and short - allocated black metals [10][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The cost can provide strong support in the short term, but demand improvement is weak [19]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom. The current fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand [21]. - Float glass prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. One should pay attention to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the inventory reduction rhythm has not effectively affected the price [26]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 81,588 tons, a net increase of 5,791 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 1.1672 million lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 533,679 tons, a net increase of 8,827 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 962,300 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is still insufficient, and the support for steel demand from the real - estate sector is limited in the short term. The supply and demand of steel have both increased, and the inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace, but there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 817.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.30% (+10.50). The position volume changed by - 6288 lots to 408,000 lots. The weighted position volume of iron ore was 890,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 24.37 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period continued the upward trend. The shipments from Australia increased to a relatively high level, while those from Brazil decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries remained basically stable, and the near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output according to the Steel Union's data increased by 2.94 tons month - on - month to 231.09 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and it is expected that the pig - iron output will continue to rise. The profitability of steel mills has shown a slight upward trend. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.89% at 6434 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6300 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6490 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 56 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.74% at 5982 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession. Although the long - term trend of commodities is still upward, in the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but these factors are mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market trends of the two are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1230.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1565.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1375.5 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 147.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1360 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1345.0 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 115.0 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.84% at 1761.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1758 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 50.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the price of coking coal may be supported by the withdrawal of funds from the non - ferrous and black sectors. The coking coal's energy attribute may be further stimulated, but the high volatility of oil and gas will also lead to high volatility in coking coal prices. In the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound are insufficient, and one is advised to conduct short - term long - side operations or wait and see. In the long term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.40% (-35). The weighted contract position volume increased by 472 lots to 370,523 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 415 yuan/ton; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was 65 yuan/ton [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 35,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.29% (-1210). The weighted contract position volume increased by 764 lots to 51,484 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 41.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 39 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 39.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4210 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is slightly increasing, but the demand improvement is weak. The high energy prices provide cost support [19]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1036 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.99% (-21). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, a decrease of 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 65,234 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 61,070 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.53% (-19). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons (-1.09%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,828 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 3454 lots [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - Glass: The supply contraction provides some support to the market sentiment, but the high inventory and weak demand restrict the price increase. The float glass market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and one should focus on the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price is expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It affects risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the prices of various assets [2][4]. - The global economic situation is complex, with concerns about inflation, recession, and the impact of central bank policies. The Fed's hawkish stance and high oil prices have led to changes in market expectations and trading strategies [4][38]. - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some are supported by fundamentals, while others are under pressure due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and changes in demand [13][15][33]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's stance on the war, potential impacts of the Iran - US conflict on the global economy, corporate projects, and business suspensions [2]. - **基差年化比率**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis annualized ratios [3]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: The prices of different treasury bond contracts have certain changes. There are also news about power statistics and shipping business resumption. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds [5]. - **策略观点**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets have different trends. There are also relevant policies in Russia and Iran's conditions for ending the war [9]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum. However, in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The copper price rose due to the improvement of market risk sentiment. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while the spot premium in the Guangdong region increased [12]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East is slightly alleviated but may be repeated. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the upward resistance has increased [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The trading volume and inventory of relevant contracts changed. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed [14]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price declined. The inventory and basis of zinc in domestic and international markets have specific data [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [17]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory and basis of lead in domestic and international markets have specific data [18]. - **策略观点**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and the low operating rate of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price. However, the high oil price and the inflow of overseas lead ingots may put pressure on the lead price, and the price volatility is increasing [18]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price declined. The spot price and cost of nickel have specific data [19]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to be weak due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price rose. The production and inventory of tin have specific data [21]. - **策略观点**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. Considering the geopolitical disturbance and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the tin price is expected to be weak [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The price of lithium carbonate increased. The spot and futures prices have specific data [23]. - **策略观点**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The downstream restocking provides support. The supply stability is a concern. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [24]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina price declined. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [25]. - **策略观点**: The bauxite export policy in Guinea may lead to an increase in ore prices. The short - term supply of alumina is tight, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless steel price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [27]. - **策略观点**: The stainless steel price is supported by the increase in raw material costs and policy disturbances. The market supply is still loose, and the demand release is weak. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume, inventory, and price difference have specific data [29]. - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices have specific data [32]. - **策略观点**: The steel market is in a weak balance state. The demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [33]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price declined. The futures price, positions, and spot price have specific data [34]. - **策略观点**: The iron ore price was affected by the negotiation news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [36][37]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about coking coal in the long term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: The prices of glass and soda ash declined. The spot prices, inventory, and positions have specific data [39][41]. - **策略观点**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to be volatile. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range oscillation [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of manganese silicon rose slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [42]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Attention should be paid to the cost and supply - side factors [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon rose. The trading volume, inventory, and spot prices have specific data [47][49]. - **策略观点**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile due to the support of cost and weak demand improvement. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to find the bottom through oscillation [48][50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber have specific data [53][54]. - **策略观点**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. Options can be configured, and hedging positions can be held [56]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products declined [57]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil varieties, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [58]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The methanol price changed. The MTO profit also changed [59]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and do long - short spreads for MTO profits [60]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The urea price changed. The regional spot prices and basis have specific data [61]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to short urea due to the high - level start - up in the first quarter and the limited export quota. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory have specific data [63]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene is neutral to high, and the valuation repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price declined. The cost, production, demand, and inventory have specific data [66]. - **策略观点**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost have specific data [68]. - **策略观点**: The industry is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [70]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and processing fee have specific data [71]. - **策略观点**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and valuation have specific data [73]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [75]. - **策略观点**: The PE valuation has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [78]. - **策略观点**: The cost pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production mismatch [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price declined. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [81]. - **策略观点**: The supply is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was mostly stable. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [83]. - **策略观点**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: There are forecasts for the planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US, export data, and inventory data [85]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation and the relaxation of soybean import inspection standards are negative for the meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [86]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: There are policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia [87][89]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of sugar [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [95]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of cotton [91]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term and positive for the US cotton price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [92].