美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段，或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。中金的 基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个阶段： 中金发布研报称，美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段。由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点，绝对 水平不高，且美联储可以用"暂时性"现象淡化通胀压力，而就业下行风险比通胀上行风险更迫切，所 以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。叠加特朗普施加较大政治压力，预计美联储可能降息节奏较快，或 连续降息3-4次。往前看，10月可能仍为流动性共振的窗口期，宽松交易是市场主线，综合风险收益， A股和港股相对美股的配置性价比更高。由于宏观流动性趋于宽松，且美联储独立性与美元信誉受损， 维持超配黄金。 中金主要观点如下： 美联储降息后的经济路径：经济指标拐点的全景追踪框架 中金认为，美国经济当前仍在走向滞胀(增长下行+通胀上行)或衰退(增长下行+通胀下行)，滞胀可能性 高于衰退。但考虑到美联储已经重启宽松周期，且2026年财政赤字可能重回扩张，政策推动之下，美国 增长在未来某个时点最终会掉头上行。在通胀上行期间，如果增长转为上行，将形成一种 ...

中金主要观点如下： 美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段，或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个阶段： 2025Q4是第一阶段，降息节奏较快：由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点，绝对水平不高，且美联储可以用"暂时性"现象淡化通胀压力，而就业下行风险比通胀 上行风险更迫切，所以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。 图表1：美国通胀已确认上行拐点，未来3个季度或持续抬升 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预期9月-10月中美流动性环境延续共振，美元处于下行周期，对各类资产(股票、债券、黄金、商品)形成利好。与9 月市场行情类似，10月可能仍是宏观相对顺风期，建议维持相对较高的风险偏好，超配中国股票。目前沪深300指数动态市盈率接近历史均值，估值与此 前牛市高点比还有扩张空间。 综合风险收益，A股和港股相对美股的配置性价比更高。由于宏观流动性趋于宽松，且美联储独立性与美元信誉受损，维持超配黄金。黄金年初以来上涨 幅度较快，已经超出与基本面相匹配的水平，近期再度快速上涨，短期回调风险有所上升，建议淡化黄金交易价值，关注长期配 ...

Interestingly, despite the dovish signal, the US dollar had corrected higher, pushing other asset prices slightly lower. That represents the old trading adage: “buy the rumours, sell the news”. In this case, inflated expectations about dovish monetary policy had brought a lot of short sellers of the US dollar to the market, which now tend to fix their profits.Now, as the odds of 3 steps of decline for the interest rate in 2025 are already stacked, theThe market looks forward to trying to find new narratives ...

Core Viewpoint - The September FOMC meeting highlighted the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Economic Predictions - The FOMC's statement emphasized the risks of employment decline, removing the phrase "labor market remains robust" and adding concerns about "slowing job growth" and "increased risks to employment" [2]. - Economic forecasts were improved, with GDP projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 raised, while the unemployment rate for 2026 and 2027 was slightly lowered. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was also increased [2]. Interest Rate Projections - The dot plot indicated an increase in the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 2 to 3, with further divergence in future expectations among FOMC members [2]. - The FOMC members anticipate 2 more cuts this year, 1 cut in 2026, and 2 cuts in 2027, reflecting increasing internal disagreement [2]. Powell's Statements - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for a significant reduction at this time and emphasizing that future decisions will depend on data [3]. - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate remains low, it has begun to rise, attributing the slowdown in job growth to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation, as well as potential impacts from AI [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, with gold prices declining. The market reacted to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts and the balance between employment and inflation targets [4]. - CME data indicated increased market confidence in two more rate cuts this year, although expectations for cuts in 2026 were pushed back [4]. Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The U.S. economy achieves a soft landing without major recession or stagflation, with two more cuts this year and three in 2025, influenced by political pressures [5][6]. 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, leading to a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, prompting the Fed to implement substantial cuts [5]. 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: A historic high inflation or stagflation situation forces the Fed to prioritize inflation control, maintaining high rates for an extended period [6]. - The soft landing scenario is considered the base case with the highest probability, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025 [1][8] - The FOMC statement highlighted the risks of slowing employment growth, removing previous language indicating a solid labor market, and introducing concerns about downside risks to employment [1][8] - Economic projections were adjusted, with GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being raised, while unemployment rates for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered [9][10] Group 2 - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating that there was no need for a significant reduction in rates and that future rate paths remain uncertain [2][13] - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and employment growth is slowing due to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [2][13] - Inflation expectations were adjusted, with Powell suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary, although there are still concerns about persistent inflation risks [2][13] Group 3 - Market reactions included a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and mixed performance in the stock market, reflecting the cautious tone of Powell regarding future rate cuts [3][14] - Following the FOMC announcement, market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, with the probability of the federal funds rate reaching a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end rising to 79.9% [15][16] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. Soft landing scenario, predicting two more cuts this year and three in 2026, with a stable economic outlook [4][19] 2. Recession scenario, where significant economic deterioration could lead to a larger cut of 50 basis points [4][19] 3. High inflation scenario, where persistent high inflation would necessitate maintaining higher rates for a longer period [4][19] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most likely, while the probabilities for recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as lower [20]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is positioned favorably between "stagflation" and "recession," with high CPI confirming persistent inflation and rising initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The combination of weak growth, loose policy, and sticky inflation is historically beneficial for gold [1] - Global central banks are continuing to de-dollarize, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are contributing to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Gold has maintained a strong position above the 5-day moving average, with expectations for a potential breakout to new historical highs if it remains above this level [1] - Recent trading saw gold rebound from 3626, with a target range of 3620-3660, indicating a bullish sentiment [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bullish trend, with a golden cross on the 2-hour moving average and gold prices breaking through the upper Bollinger band [4] - Key support levels are identified at 3625-33, with a strong bullish stance maintained as long as prices stay above 3600 [4]

Is a Fed cut and more market exuberance all but guaranteed. Tim, well, we've priced in a lot of market exuberance and really even after the V-shaped recovery from liberation day. We've done uh you know, probably almost 10% on the S&P, almost 12% on the NASDAQ.And and and it's interesting, you know, you're talking about the Dow today. We, you know, we kind of sometimes make fun of the Dow as an index because we think it's it's the way it's calculated makes less sense to me. That's not what we're here to talk ...

Group 1 - Growth stocks in the US have experienced a sell-off, indicating market tension ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that small-cap stocks may see significant volatility following Powell's comments on monetary policy, with the Russell 2000 index being a key focus [1] - A dovish speech from Powell could trigger a rebound in small-cap stocks, while a more hawkish stance may lead to short-term declines as the market adjusts its rate cut pricing [1] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether the US economy is heading towards a recession, with differing opinions from economic experts [2] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates and refinancing risks, and their performance may be positively impacted by rate cuts if macroeconomic data remains stable [2] - The fate of small-cap companies largely depends on Powell's upcoming speech, highlighting the importance of his comments for market sentiment [2]

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Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]