与此同时，经济学家们预计就业增长将保持疲软，预计月均新增非农就业人数将为5.8万人，低于10月 份调查的6万人。他们还预测，2026年月均新增非农就业就人数将为6.4万人，低于10月份调查预测的7.5 万人。失业率将在2026年初升至4.5%，并在全年维持这一水平。 就美联储的利率路径而言，预计12月实施25个基点的降息，2026年仅再降息50个基点，使政策利率更接 近中性水平。 这项调查发布之际，美国经济第二季度年化增长率为3.8%，为2023年第三季度以来的最快增速。11月 19日，亚特兰大联储将第三季度实际GDP增长预期从之前的4.1%上调至4.2%。 全美商业经济协会（NABE）的一项新调查显示，2026年美国经济预计将温和增长，但就业岗位创造预 计将持续疲软。 这项调查于11月3日至11日开展，涵盖42位专业预测人士。对2026年经济增长的中值预期为2%，高于10 月上一轮调查的1.8%。路透社报道称，这与6月调查中1.3%的增速预测形成鲜明对比。 经济增长预计将受到更强劲的消费支出和企业投资支撑，不过特朗普政府的新进口关税可能会削减0.25 个百分点甚至更多的增长。经济学家还指出，更严格的移民执法 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors should focus on the future opportunities presented by AI rather than worrying about potential bubbles in the market [1][2] Group 1: AI Market Insights - Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management, emphasized that AI is creating opportunities that are not yet fully recognized or understood [1] - Erdoes compared the current AI market situation to a gradual then sudden bankruptcy, suggesting that AI's true value will be realized over time [1] - Concerns over the soaring valuations of AI-related companies like Nvidia and AMD have led to market volatility, yet the stock market remains near historical highs [1] Group 2: Economic Context and Predictions - Erdoes stated that AI is not in a bubble, arguing that the U.S. is just beginning to harness AI's potential, with a long way to go before it translates into net profits [2] - Michael Arougheti, CEO of Ares Management, echoed this sentiment, noting that current investments in AI are minimal compared to its potential, and supply growth is lagging behind short-term demand [3] - Erdoes expressed confidence that a recession is unlikely in the short term, suggesting that if no recession occurs, it would be an excellent buying opportunity [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through previous highs, reaching a new 10-year peak, with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential new upward trend in the market [1] - The recent market increase is attributed to three key factors: the end of the U.S. government shutdown, the unexpected resignation of the Atlanta Fed President, and Alibaba's announcement of its AI model "Qianwen" [2][3] - The economic impact of the government shutdown is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion, suggesting that reopening may not resolve all issues, as new challenges may arise [2] Group 2 - Alibaba's AI model announcement has positively influenced the market, particularly benefiting AI-related stocks, which have seen significant adjustments recently [3] - Semiconductor company SMIC reported third-quarter revenue of $6.838 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.44%, and a net profit of $512 million, up 33% year-on-year, although its valuation remains high [5] - The overall market trend may shift in the fourth quarter, with a focus on AI and technology sectors, while traditional sectors like mining and metals are also experiencing price increases due to global monetary easing [4][5] Group 3 - The technical analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index indicates that it is currently the strongest index, but caution is advised as various indicators suggest potential market topping [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset indicated that certain sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly housing, may have entered a recession due to persistently high interest rates, urging the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Basset highlighted that high mortgage rates are hindering the real estate market, with the lowest-end consumers being the most affected due to high debt and low assets [1] - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing home sales contracts remained flat month-over-month in September [1] Group 2 - Basset described the overall economic environment as a "transition period" and criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's suggestion of a potential pause in rate cuts in December [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expressed concerns that failure to quickly cut rates could lead to a recession, advocating for a more significant rate cut of 50 basis points instead of the recent 25 basis points [2] - Basset agreed with Milan's view, noting that the Trump administration's spending cuts have helped reduce the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP from 6.4% to 5.9%, which aids in lowering inflation [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests shorting the dollar in a "blonde girl" environment where US stocks rise while Treasury losses are controlled [1] - Bank of America warns that tightening credit conditions may trigger passive selling, indicating potential bear market signals for the stock market [1] - Goldman Sachs expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase in both overall and core CPI for September, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [2] Group 2 - Societe Generale indicates that a mild recession in the US could lead to a weaker dollar due to potential rate cuts [3] - UBS believes that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the coming months, supported by rising long-term inflation expectations [4] - Citigroup does not anticipate that the new Japanese Prime Minister will pressure the Bank of Japan to avoid rate hikes, given the current economic context [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil prices will drop to $52 per barrel by Q4 next year, citing inventory increases and refining margins [8] - Singapore Bank notes that investors may still be keen to increase gold allocations during price pullbacks, raising their 12-month gold price forecast to $4,600 per ounce [9] - Canadian banks forecast record corporate earnings for Q3, supporting the Toronto stock market's upward trend [10] Group 4 - Huachuang Securities reports a recovery in fund allocations to credit bonds, suggesting opportunities in 4-5 year maturities [11] - Galaxy Securities highlights a market style shift benefiting the food and beverage index, with a focus on new consumption trends [12] - CITIC Securities observes a divergence in economic data for September, with production remaining resilient while demand indicators decline [13] Group 5 - CITIC Securities notes that recent adjustments to Hainan's duty-free shopping policy could boost sales, enhancing consumer experience and increasing foot traffic [14] - CITIC Securities also reports advancements in solid-state battery technology, which may accelerate the commercialization process [15]

Group 1 - Midwestern farmers are facing a crisis as the loss of a major Chinese buyer has led to a surplus of soybeans and corn, causing prices to plummet [1] - A report from Yale indicates that tariffs and foreign retaliation could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points and increase unemployment by 0.2 percentage points by 2025 [1] - Nomura Securities predicts that U.S. GDP growth in 2025 will only be 0.8%, which is worse than the aftermath of the 2009 financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession from 35% to 45%, while JPMorgan forecasts a recession in the second half of the year [3] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation are being undermined by tariffs, leading to increased import costs that consumers must bear [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Delta Airlines have publicly complained about rising costs due to tariffs, which are affecting profit expectations [3] Group 3 - The European Union imposed tariffs on $26 billion worth of U.S. goods, with Canada retaliating with a 25% tariff on automobiles, disrupting supply chains [6] - Canada and Mexico have united in their response, causing significant disruptions in U.S. automotive production [6] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary downplayed recession concerns, suggesting that short-term pain is necessary for long-term benefits [6] Group 4 - In April, China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, which was later reduced to 10% for a limited time, causing significant distress among American farmers [8] - U.S. farmers are experiencing a drastic decline in business, with many unable to sell their crops and facing financial difficulties [8] - The tariffs intended to curb Chinese manufacturing have instead harmed American producers [8] Group 5 - Gold prices have surged by 50% since the beginning of the year, with predictions of reaching $4,900 by the end of the year [10] - A court ruling deemed many of Trump's tariffs illegal, which could have significant implications for the economy [10] - Yale's data indicates that tariffs are negatively impacting GDP and increasing unemployment concerns, with a 40% drop in orders observed in September [10] Group 6 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion and a fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion [12] - Tariff revenue has only amounted to $6.8 billion by the end of May, insufficient to cover the growing fiscal gap [12] - The OECD has downgraded U.S. growth forecasts to 1.8%, which is considered optimistic given the current economic climate [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts in September, entering a new phase of dollar easing, prioritizing "stabilizing growth" over "controlling inflation" due to rising unemployment risks and political pressure from Trump, with expectations of 3-4 consecutive rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Phases - The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to transition through three phases: a fast pace in 2025 Q4, a slowdown in 2026 H1, and a renewed acceleration in 2026 H2 [2][3]. - The first phase will see rapid cuts due to low inflation levels and urgent employment risks, while the second phase will involve a balance between growth and inflation risks, potentially halting balance sheet reductions [2]. - The third phase anticipates a more dovish Fed chair under Trump's administration, leading to accelerated rate cuts as inflationary pressures from tariffs diminish [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently trending towards stagflation or recession, with stagflation being more likely, but a future recovery is expected due to the Fed's easing policies [4]. - Historical analysis shows that it typically takes an average of 12 months from the start of a rate cut cycle to reach a growth upturn, suggesting that a turning point may be near [4][5]. - A database of 16 core economic indicators has been developed to track turning points, with consumer and employment data being critical for predicting economic recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - October is projected to be a liquidity resonance window, favoring a loose trading environment for various asset classes, including stocks and gold [6][7]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well, with a recommendation to overweight A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the tech sector [8]. - The U.S. stock market may underperform relative to non-U.S. markets during the dollar down cycle, with a cautionary note on the potential for increased volatility in the stock market [8][9]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a high risk appetite in October, with a focus on Chinese equities and a balanced allocation to U.S. bonds and stocks [7][10]. - Investors are advised to monitor policy changes closely in October and November, adjusting asset allocations as necessary based on liquidity conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC anticipates that the liquidity environment between China and the U.S. will continue to resonate from September to October, with the dollar in a downward cycle, benefiting various asset classes including stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities [1][28]. Group 1: Market Outlook - October is expected to remain a favorable macroeconomic period, similar to September, suggesting a high risk appetite and an overweight position in Chinese stocks [1][28]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is close to historical averages, indicating potential for further expansion compared to previous bull market peaks [1][28]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks offer better relative value compared to U.S. stocks due to the easing macro liquidity environment and the diminished independence and credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][35]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to switch between "fast-slow-fast" phases, with the first phase starting in Q4 2025 characterized by rapid rate cuts due to rising inflation and employment risks [4][28]. - The second phase in H1 2026 will see a slowdown in rate cuts as inflation continues to rise, requiring a balance between growth and inflation risks [4][28]. - The third phase in H2 2026 may see accelerated rate cuts again, particularly if a more dovish Fed chair is appointed, and tariff impacts on inflation diminish [4][28]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Asset Allocation - The U.S. economy is currently trending towards stagflation or recession, with stagflation being more likely, but the Fed's reintroduction of easing measures may eventually lead to growth recovery [8][28]. - Key economic indicators should be monitored to predict turning points in the economy, with a focus on consumption and employment data as leading indicators [16][21]. - The report suggests maintaining a focus on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while also being cautious of potential volatility in the market due to previous significant price increases [28][30]. Group 4: Gold and Other Assets - Despite a rapid increase in gold prices since the beginning of the year, the report advises to downplay short-term trading value and focus on long-term allocation opportunities, suggesting to accumulate on dips [1][35]. - The report highlights that during the dollar's down cycle, gold, commodities, and non-U.S. stocks tend to outperform U.S. stocks [5][35]. - The recommendation is to maintain an overweight position in gold due to the ongoing macro liquidity easing, despite short-term risks of price corrections [1][35].

Group 1 - The US dollar has corrected higher despite dovish signals, indicating a market reaction to profit-taking by short sellers [1] - The market is anticipating new narratives and drivers for price action as the likelihood of three interest rate declines in 2025 is already priced in [1][4] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but GDP growth data for Q3 is not yet available, making recession predictions difficult [2] Group 2 - The 10-2 spread remains above zero, indicating a balanced situation, while the US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since February, signaling weakness [3] - Despite weak signals, US stocks have performed steadily, with indices reaching new all-time highs alongside Gold [3] - The upcoming PCE index publication on September 25th is crucial for assessing inflation and interest rate stability [4] Group 3 - The official beginning of the interest rate decline cycle in the US may lead to speculation around selling the US dollar coming to an end [5] - Stronger-than-expected inflation data could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD and other USD-related pairs, while failure to break resistance may indicate Euro weakness against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The September FOMC meeting highlighted the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Economic Predictions - The FOMC's statement emphasized the risks of employment decline, removing the phrase "labor market remains robust" and adding concerns about "slowing job growth" and "increased risks to employment" [2]. - Economic forecasts were improved, with GDP projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 raised, while the unemployment rate for 2026 and 2027 was slightly lowered. The core PCE forecast for 2026 was also increased [2]. Interest Rate Projections - The dot plot indicated an increase in the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 2 to 3, with further divergence in future expectations among FOMC members [2]. - The FOMC members anticipate 2 more cuts this year, 1 cut in 2026, and 2 cuts in 2027, reflecting increasing internal disagreement [2]. Powell's Statements - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for a significant reduction at this time and emphasizing that future decisions will depend on data [3]. - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate remains low, it has begun to rise, attributing the slowdown in job growth to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation, as well as potential impacts from AI [3]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, with gold prices declining. The market reacted to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts and the balance between employment and inflation targets [4]. - CME data indicated increased market confidence in two more rate cuts this year, although expectations for cuts in 2026 were pushed back [4]. Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The U.S. economy achieves a soft landing without major recession or stagflation, with two more cuts this year and three in 2025, influenced by political pressures [5][6]. 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, leading to a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, prompting the Fed to implement substantial cuts [5]. 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: A historic high inflation or stagflation situation forces the Fed to prioritize inflation control, maintaining high rates for an extended period [6]. - The soft landing scenario is considered the base case with the highest probability, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6].