Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart show a clear contraction, with prices retreating from the upper band and finding support near the lower band around 104,600, currently oscillating near the middle band at 105,000. This indicates intense short-term bullish and bearish battles, with the market remaining in a wide range of 104,000-108,000, and key support/resistance levels not being effectively breached [1] - The MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines converging below the zero axis, with a shortening green momentum bar, indicating weakened short-term downward momentum, but no clear bullish crossover has formed, requiring observation of the rebound's sustainability [1] - The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone (below 30) to around 50, hovering in the neutral zone without showing overbought/oversold signals, confirming the oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with prices oscillating around the middle and lower bands (3,500-3,560), forming a typical converging triangle. The middle band (3,580) faced pressure and retreated, indicating insufficient short-term bullish strength, but the 3,500 support level remains intact without a breakdown [2] - During the rebound, trading volume has not significantly increased, showing a price rise with reduced volume, suggesting that the upward momentum relies on short covering rather than active buying, necessitating caution against false breakout risks [2] - The OBV indicator shows the energy tide line oscillating in sync with prices, confirming the current state as a range fluctuation rather than a trending market [2] Group 3: Cross-Asset Technical Insights - The strengthening of the US dollar in the short term is suppressing the rebound potential of cryptocurrencies, but it does not alter the oscillating nature of Bitcoin and Ethereum, necessitating attention to the resistance at the 95 level of the US dollar index and its subsequent impact on the market [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent strength in the black commodity futures prices is mainly a news-driven rebound in both technical and fundamental aspects, not a trend reversal, so its impact on the bond market is limited [1][2][32] - The focus of the bond market should be on factors such as the capital situation, central bank operations, and the progress of Sino-US negotiations [2][32] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog How to Understand the Abnormal Rise of Coking Coal? - **Technical Analysis of Coking Coal**: From the weekly K-line perspective, the current trend of the coking coal main contract remains bearish. Although the bullish force has increased this week, it is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. From the daily K-line perspective, the further upward momentum of the coking coal main contract may be exhausted, and more driving factors are needed for long positions [10][11] - **Fundamental Analysis of Coking Coal**: Coking coal has a relatively serious overcapacity problem, with short-term demand still weakening and the supply-demand pattern not significantly improved. The sharp rise on June 4th was mainly due to news about Mongolia's potential coal export tax, but there has been no official decision. The supply and demand of coking coal both weakened in April, and high-frequency data in May showed weakening demand and potential inventory pressure [13][15] - **Analysis of Rebar and Iron Ore**: Rebar and iron ore futures main contracts also rose on June 4th, but the increases were significantly less than that of coking coal. Technically, their trends are also bearish, with weaker rebound signals than the coking coal main contract. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar have not improved significantly, and its price is in a downward channel. The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has weakened month-on-month, and its price is also in a medium-term downward trend [17][18][24]