Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart show a clear contraction, with prices retreating from the upper band and finding support near the lower band around 104,600, currently oscillating near the middle band at 105,000. This indicates intense short-term bullish and bearish battles, with the market remaining in a wide range of 104,000-108,000, and key support/resistance levels not being effectively breached [1] - The MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines converging below the zero axis, with a shortening green momentum bar, indicating weakened short-term downward momentum, but no clear bullish crossover has formed, requiring observation of the rebound's sustainability [1] - The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone (below 30) to around 50, hovering in the neutral zone without showing overbought/oversold signals, confirming the oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with prices oscillating around the middle and lower bands (3,500-3,560), forming a typical converging triangle. The middle band (3,580) faced pressure and retreated, indicating insufficient short-term bullish strength, but the 3,500 support level remains intact without a breakdown [2] - During the rebound, trading volume has not significantly increased, showing a price rise with reduced volume, suggesting that the upward momentum relies on short covering rather than active buying, necessitating caution against false breakout risks [2] - The OBV indicator shows the energy tide line oscillating in sync with prices, confirming the current state as a range fluctuation rather than a trending market [2] Group 3: Cross-Asset Technical Insights - The strengthening of the US dollar in the short term is suppressing the rebound potential of cryptocurrencies, but it does not alter the oscillating nature of Bitcoin and Ethereum, necessitating attention to the resistance at the 95 level of the US dollar index and its subsequent impact on the market [3]

债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响？ ——债券市场专题研究 核心观点 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主，不构 成趋势性反转，因此对债市影响有限。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 从基本面及技术面如何理解焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨？ 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强更多或为下行趋势中的反弹而非反转，基本面来看 黑色系商品多数仍然供需格局偏弱，现货价格处于中期下行趋势中。从技术面来 看，领涨的焦煤品种主力合约在本轮反弹中出现的信号强于钢铁、铁矿石等品种， 但总体来看趋势仍旧偏弱，做多仍需谨慎入场。 ❑ 本轮焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨对债市影响如何？ 对应债券市场，由于黑色系商品期货总体周期性价格走势较为一致，而黑色系商 品期货价格走强多数情形下同样会对债市形成压制。但综合前述分析，本轮黑色 系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主，不构成趋 势性反转，因此对债市影响有限，对债市的关注点仍然应该落脚在资金面、央行 操作、中美谈判进展等方面。 ❑ 风险提示 技术分析具有一定局限性；宏观经济政策出 ...