Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market has declined across the board. The five major steel products have seen an increase in inventory and a decrease in apparent demand. The rapid decline of coking coal has led to a decrease in speculative demand, and the short - term futures market still faces correction pressure. However, due to the unproven "anti - involution" expectation and the "steady growth" expectation, along with the impact of coal mine over - production inspections, the steel demand in the off - season is acceptable, and the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On August 1st, black commodity futures all turned down. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore were 3,203 yuan/ton, 3,401 yuan/ton, and 783 yuan/ton respectively. The coking coal and coke futures continued to decline significantly, with the decline of coking coal main contract exceeding 7%, and the coking coal main contract switched to 2601 [1] Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting did not release signals of incremental fiscal policies, emphasizing the use of previous policy packages and without more support for the real estate market. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and downplayed the guidance of a September rate cut, leading to adjustments in risk - asset prices. In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [1] - The supply - demand performance of steel is poor. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 13.5189 million tons, ending a four - week decline. The terminal demand in the off - season is weak, mainly due to the decline in real estate investment and construction. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 65.37%, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46%, and the average daily pig iron output decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons. The electric arc furnace steel mills increased production and resumed production, with the operating rate and capacity utilization reaching an eight - week high [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term shock strategy and pay attention to the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation strategy and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overall, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased, the apparent demand has decreased, and with the rapid decline of coking coal, the short - term futures market faces correction pressure. But due to certain expectations and the actual situation, the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of coking coal and coke declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, with price support still in place. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke remained slightly tight, and the fifth round of price increase for coke started. There was a policy bottom, and buying opportunities after price corrections could be considered [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 31, all black - series commodity futures turned down. The closing price of rebar was 3205 yuan/ton, down 4.19%; the hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3390 yuan/ton, down 3.56%; the iron ore futures closed at 779 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke declined, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down [1] Market Analysis - The decline in the futures market cooled the previous positive sentiment. Some traders sold to realize profits, and the increase in auctions narrowed. Extreme rain in coal - producing areas led to a temporary reduction in coal supply. Coking coal demand remained strong due to high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production. Coal mine pre - sales would last until mid - August. The inventory of washed coal plants and coking coal mines reached low levels. After the fourth round of price increases for coke, the profits of coke enterprises continued to shrink, some reduced production, and supply tightened. Steel mills and traders had good procurement enthusiasm, and coke inventories at coking plants were low. The coking industry decided to raise coke prices starting from July 31 [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, take a short - term oscillatory approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On July 30, black commodity futures showed mixed performance. Steel prices strengthened, and steel mills' production profits continued to recover. High - level hot metal supported the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season, and there were rumors of steel mill production restrictions in the north, so the actual demand growth of ferroalloys was limited [1]. - The production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese improved. Short - term production of both was expected to increase, which might suppress prices, but there were also expectations of supply contraction, leading to a long - short game in the supply side [1]. - Manganese ore prices were rising, which supported the silicomanganese market. The lanthanum market was relatively stable, and its price was expected to improve in the short term [1]. - At the end of the month, there were many important events, and both long and short sides in the fundamentals lacked strong driving forces to break the situation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3315 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3483 yuan/ton, up 0.81%; the iron ore main contract closed at 789 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke rose [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Steel prices strengthened, and high - level hot metal supported the rigid demand for ferroalloys. However, terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season, and there were rumors of production restrictions, so the actual demand growth of ferroalloys was limited, and the upward driving force for the market was insufficient [1]. Supply - The production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese improved. Inner Mongolia's ferrosilicon production and operating rate increased month - on - month, and the production area of silicomanganese also had good production enthusiasm. Short - term production was expected to increase, which might suppress prices, but there were also expectations of supply contraction, resulting in a long - short game in the supply side [1]. Cost - Manganese ore prices were rising, which supported the silicomanganese market. The lanthanum market was relatively stable, and its price was expected to improve in the short term [1]. Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - For rebar, investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - For hot - rolled coil, investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market is expected to show wide - range oscillations in the short term [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of black commodity futures today was average. The supply - side favorable sentiment pushed up the price center of the steel futures market this week, but downstream demand may be limited due to weather, and some steel mills have the intention to cut production. The coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations, and the market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the coking coal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton; the prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly [1] Market Analysis - Steel futures broke through the narrow - range shock this week, with the price center rising nearly 100 points due to supply - side sentiment. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since late April but still at a high level. Downstream demand may be limited in July and August, and steel mills will mainly produce according to sales [1] - After four rounds of coke price cuts, raw coal prices rose, squeezing coke enterprise profits. The profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants dropped to - 52 yuan/ton. Some coking plants cut production, and the inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while steel mill inventory increased. Some coking plants intend to raise prices, and the follow - up depends on pig iron output and cost [1] - The total inventory of coking coal increased by 0.93% to 257.209 million tons this week. The inventory structure improved, with coal mines and coal - washing plants reducing inventory, and ports and steel mills increasing inventory. The prices of various coking coal types rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal electronic auction improved, but the third - quarter long - term contract price is expected to drop, and increased imports will impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors should take a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors should take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the price stabilizes and the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The supply - demand structure has not reached a substantial turning point, and short - term structural relief may not support the continuous rise of futures prices. The market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures showed strong performance on July 2nd. The alloy supply - demand pattern has no significant change, and the stable cost supports the futures price. The short - term double - silicon futures may be mainly driven by sector sentiment, and future macro - policy trends need to be focused on [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 2nd, black - series commodity futures were strong. The closing price of rebar was 3065 yuan/ton, up 2.61%; hot - rolled coil's main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 2.24%; iron ore's main contract closed at 722.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rose by over 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Demand**: The steel production restriction news in Tangshan had a certain negative impact on the alloy sentiment, but the overall impact on production was limited. The long - process steel mills had good profitability, with low willingness to cut production. The short - term rigid demand for alloys remained resilient, supporting the double - silicon futures prices [1]. - **Supply**: For ferromanganese, the northern production area maintained high - level operation, and the southern area had both production increase and decrease. The ferromanganese production had increased slightly for several weeks, which might restrict the futures and spot prices. For ferrosilicon, the profit margin was shrinking, the production was relatively stable at a low level, which might support the futures market. [1] - **Cost**: For ferromanganese, the coking coal price was stable, but there was an expectation of looser production. The manganese ore market was firm, and the cost was slightly bullish. For ferrosilicon, the downstream demand for semi - coke was weak, but the cost still provided support, and the short - term price might remain stable with limited driving effect on the futures [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors should take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors should take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - coking**: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and oscillation market or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black commodity futures market was generally weak today. The supply of coking coal decreased due to safety inspections and environmental protection pressures, while the downstream procurement remained cautious. The overall coking coal inventory was still high, and the supply - demand structure only had a short - term structural relief. The upward space and sustainability of coal prices were restricted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 708.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed down, with coking coal down more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts occurred due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressures, and inventory issues. The domestic coking coal supply decreased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal both decreased. Russian coal imports decreased by about 600,000 tons since May, and the customs at three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days. The downstream procurement of coke and coking coal remained cautious, and the overall coking coal inventory was high. After the end of the safety production month in June, some coal mines resumed production, and the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter was almost certain, which would further impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coils: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1] Summary - Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, be vigilant against the impact of sentiment and maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, but the improvement is limited. Coal mines still have the expectation of resuming production. In the short term, prices are still in a volatile range, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally stabilized with mixed performance. Rebar closed at 2,976 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; hot-rolled coil closed at 3,098 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; iron ore closed at 702.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed higher [1] Market Analysis - Last week, steel production increased while inventory decreased. The apparent demand for five major steel products rose by 160,800 tons to 8.8418 million tons. Due to continuous concessions from the raw material side, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded to 59.31% week-on-week. The driving force for production cuts was limited. The daily average pig iron output from blast furnaces ended a five - week decline, increasing by 5,700 tons to 2.4218 million tons week-on-week, and was 22,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The rigid demand for coke was still supported [1] - Affected by environmental protection and maintenance, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises declined. Coke inventory decreased by more than 8% to 1.1558 million tons week-on-week, and the real - world contradiction eased marginally. However, the current supply side of coke is still relatively loose. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a fourth - round price cut for coke, which was implemented at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. The spot market is still under pressure. Coking enterprises' profits have reached the break - even point, and there is no intention to cut production for now. Most expect the coke market to stabilize in the future [1] - After a long - term price decline in coking coal, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased. The unsuccessful auction rate of coking coal in online auctions last week significantly decreased, reaching a low in more than two months. Currently, the decline in coal prices has slowed down. The willingness of coking and steel enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices has increased. The transaction volume of some coal mines has improved, and the transaction price of individual coal types has rebounded [1] - Recently, due to safety and other factors, more coal mines have cut or stopped production. This week, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%. The daily average output was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons from the previous period. Both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend, and market sentiment improved. However, against the background of the off - season for finished product consumption, the downstream's procurement of coking coal is generally cautious. The situation of oversupply of coking coal has not been reversed. The high inventory level and the expected decline in finished product demand also suppress the rise of coking coal prices [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the volatile market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Steel futures prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to the contradiction between capital game and weak reality. The raw material side lacks a substantial driving force for a sharp rise, and the market lacks directional guidance. The market still shows off - season characteristics, with the inventory of building materials increasing within expectations, leading to a slight price rebound. However, considering the pressure of increased supply, it is expected that the market will return to an off - season oscillating and declining trend [1] Group 3: Market Overview - On June 23, black - series commodity futures generally stabilized with mixed performances. The rebar closed at 2,995 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3,112 yuan/ton, down 0.16%; the iron ore closed at 706 yuan/ton; among coking coal and coke, only coking coal closed up [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Supply - Due to continuous concessions from the raw material side, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 59.31% on a month - on - month basis. The driving force for production cuts is limited. The blast furnace operating rate last week increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82% compared with the previous week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased to 90.79%. As a result, the daily average pig iron output ended a five - week decline, increasing by 0.57 tons to 242.18 tons on a month - on - month basis, 2.24 tons more than the same period last year. Electric arc furnace steel mills are facing long - term losses, with some reducing or halting production. As of June 18, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 70.93%, the lowest in three months, down 3.08% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, down 2.19% week - on - week, and the daily average crude steel output decreased by 3.86% week - on - week. It is expected that the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces will continue to decline [1] Group 5: Market Analysis - Demand - With the stabilization of steel prices, the terminal demand has recovered slightly in the short term. However, due to high - temperature and rainy seasons, the terminal demand continues to weaken. A series of real - estate data is still bottoming out. The US tariff increase on imported household appliances may have an impact on China's indirect exports, and the manufacturing demand also faces significant downward pressure. Policy - wise, July is a major window period for domestic policy announcements, but currently, terminals mainly purchase on demand. The lag of macro - policy tools has led to a situation of strong expectations and weak reality in the futures market [1] Group 6: Investment Suggestion - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt an oscillating mindset in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to expect high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price stabilizes from the decline, or consider the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Steel futures prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to the contradiction between capital games and weak reality, and the raw material side lacks a substantial driving force for a significant rise. The disk lacks directional guidance. The implementation path of the off - season logic is not smooth. The strategy should maintain a bearish stance, and profits should be realized when new lows occur [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On June 19, the black - series commodity futures generally stabilized. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2986 yuan/ton, 3103 yuan/ton, and 698 yuan/ton respectively, with the first two rising 0.13% and the latter rising 0.43%. Coke in the coking coal and coke (double - coke) category slightly declined [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply**: Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly dropped to 58.44%, and production cuts were not active. The blast - furnace operating rate of steel decreased by 0.15% to 83.41% week - on - week, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%. The daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons, only 0.19 million tons less than last week, and 2.3 million tons more than the same period last year, with the growth rate narrowing to 0.96%, reaching a new low in more than half a year. For electric - arc furnace steel mills, due to high losses, some cut production or shut down, causing the national independent electric - arc furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate to continue to decline by 2.68% and 1.97% to 74.01% and 56.73% respectively. The daily average crude steel output's week - on - week decline rate widened to 3.36%. The cost - support effect is weakening [1]. - **Demand**: With steel prices stabilizing, terminal demand has slightly recovered in the short term. However, due to high temperatures, the rainy season, the bottom - building of real - estate data, the US tariff on imported household appliances, and the large pressure on the decline of manufacturing demand, terminal demand is expected to continue to weaken. Although July is a window period for major domestic policy announcements, currently, terminals mainly purchase as needed, and the lag of macro - policy tools leads to the futures market showing the characteristics of strong expectations and weak reality [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - coke**: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].