Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is expected to reach new all-time highs before the end of the year, requiring a 3% increase in the final eight and a half trading sessions [1] - A significant broadening of the market is noted, with more 52-week highs and an increase in stocks above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages [1] - High-yield corporate bonds are trading less than 1% away from all-time highs, indicating that recent tech volatility is not a precursor to a broader market collapse [1] 2026 Market Theme - Broadening is anticipated to be the main theme for 2026, with recent tech weakness viewed as a standard consolidation after a record-breaking 13-day win streak [2] - Historical patterns indicate that midterm years are typically the weakest in the presidential cycle, often experiencing a 17.5% peak-to-trough correction [2] - The current bull market is in its fourth year, with historical data suggesting that bull markets of this age last an average of eight years [2] Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) Analysis - Nike's total revenue for FQ2 2026 increased by 1% year-over-year to $12.43 billion, exceeding estimates by $218.31 million [10] - The company reported an EPS of $0.53, beating guidance by $0.16, but faced a disappointing FQ3 outlook with a forecast for low-single-digit decline in topline [9][10] - North America showed a 9% revenue increase, driven by a 24% surge in wholesale growth, while Greater China faced a 16% revenue decline [11] Ondas Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ONDS) Analysis - Ondas Holdings reported a more than sixfold year-over-year revenue surge to $10.1 million in Q3 2025, primarily driven by its Autonomous Systems division [15] - The company's consolidated backlog doubled to $23.3 million, with expectations to exceed $40 million by year-end, prompting a revenue target increase for 2025 to ~$36 million and an ambitious goal of ~$110 million for 2026 [15] - Analysts have a positive outlook on Ondas, with Stifel initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a $13 price target, citing its potential in the unmanned systems market [13][14]

Market Overview - The market has been primarily led by the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies for almost three years, but there are signs of broader market participation, particularly in financials, industrials, and AI-adjacent sectors [1][2] - The equal-weighted index is outperforming the S&P market cap-weighted index this month, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Company Performance - A recent earnings report showed a company achieving 57% year-over-year revenue growth and a staggering 167% year-over-year earnings per share growth, with guidance for the next quarter set at approximately $18.7 billion, nearly 30% above analyst expectations [4] - The cyclical nature of the chip industry is acknowledged, but the ongoing demand driven by AI is expected to sustain momentum in the stock [5] Transport Sector Insights - FedEx's recent earnings and its 2% dividend yield are viewed positively, with management's actions being recognized as impressive [6][7] - There is potential for FedEx and UPS to play significant roles in the evolving Amazon space, with improvements noted in their stock charts [7] Tariff Impact - Nike's results have been significantly affected by tariffs, but the overall impact of tariffs on retail companies appears to be less severe than initially anticipated [10][11] - The analysis of how tariffs affect stocks has become a new consideration in investment strategies [12]

for some insights and stats on the markets. Let's bring in Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Ryan, good to see you. >> Good to be here.Always enjoy your fine cities. >> Yes. And uh glad to have you uh along with the masses that that come this time of year.>> It's crowded out there. >> Um so if we were to get to a new high in the S&P by the end of the year, we're talking about eight and a half trading sessions until we're done. It's like a 3% move.So I mean, what gives you confidence if ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The S&P 500 equity market is broadening outside of the MAG7, with rotation inside MAG7 expected to be a major theme as interest rates move down, indicating optimism on equities and a potential Santa Claus rally in December [2][3] - Decoupling between equities and crypto, specifically Bitcoin, occurred around April, suggesting that associating equities and crypto in the same context may not be relevant in the near future [4] - New organic buyers are entering the Bitcoin market, exemplified by Vanguard opening access to more buyers and JP Morgan's involvement, with IBIT experiencing $32 billion in inflows this year [6] - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease, with the Fed potentially cutting rates by 25 basis points, which is expected to support equities [13] - A decrease in the ten-year note yield to 35% is expected to incentivize home buyers and benefit market laggers, including the financial sector [14] Bitcoin & Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin has historically experienced approximately 20 pullbacks of 25% or more since CME Group started trading Bitcoin futures in 2017, including three pullbacks of 50% or more [5] - The market may want to revisit the April low of $76000 for Bitcoin [6] - Crypto exposure is being considered by advisors, with discussions around allocations of 1% to 2%, similar to dipping toes into commodities like gold and silver [10][11] - There is a debate regarding Bitcoin's fundamental price value, with some questioning its use case within the US and viewing it more as a community-driven phenomenon [8][9]

The central question facing investors heading into 2026 is whether market performance will finally extend beyond the handful of megacap technology companies that have dominated returns for the past three years. "The contribution to total return of the Mag Seven has overwhelmed the other 493 companies in the market,†said Paul Baiocchi, head of fund sales and strategy at SS&C Alps Advisors, during November 11's episode of ETF Prime. The key question is whether areas like small-caps, developed ex-U.S. equities ...

Market Broadening & Economic Improvement - Piper Sandler anticipates a broadening market, driven by improvements in both macro and microeconomic factors, rather than a significant surge [2][3] - The market broadening is expected to be more about breadth than magnitude, indicating wider participation across sectors [2] - Stabilized interest rates and subsequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as catalysts for economic improvement, positively impacting smaller businesses, lower-end consumers, housing, and manufacturing [5][6] - The anticipation of improved economic conditions is leading to anticipatory indicators showing positive signs [6] Labor Market & Monetary Policy - A soft labor market has alleviated inflation fears, allowing interest rates to decline and the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [8] - The current economic backdrop is described as "Goldilocks" in a post-inflation shock world, characterized by a simultaneous increase in the unemployment rate and the stock market [11] - The Federal Reserve's data-dependent approach, particularly concerning the unemployment rate, has influenced market perceptions and expectations regarding potential rate cuts [9][10] Tariffs & Market Uncertainty - The market exhibits a diminishing sensitivity to fear and uncertainty, including potential tariffs, as investors have become accustomed to navigating a "wall of worry" [13] - Investors are adopting a "show me first" approach, reacting to concrete events rather than preemptively fearing potential negative impacts from tariffs or other uncertainties [13]

Market Impact of Potential Government Shutdown - The market impact of government shutdowns has typically been muted, with about seven shutdowns in the last 40 years [2] - The market doesn't seem very concerned about a potential government shutdown, with the S&P up about 05% and the NASDAQ even higher [3] - A guest believes there's about a 70% chance of a shutdown, which could impact the jobs report and other upcoming reports [3] - Markets don't like uncertainty, especially in a data-dependent time, and a shutdown will impact data releases [5] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Cuts - The market is pricing in a high probability of a rate cut at the October meeting, potentially followed by a second cut [5][6] - The Fed may have to look to other data sources like the ADP report due to the shutdown impacting data releases [5] - The employment backdrop is weakening, with jobless claims ticking up and people working part-time for economic reasons increasing [7][8] Market Broadening and Sector Performance - There is a possibility of market broadening, with small caps potentially outperforming due to being more rate-sensitive [8][10] - Small caps seem like a bit of a catch-up trade that's already lost a lot of steam [12] - Modest weakness in the economy may make leaning into cyclical sectors like industrials and financials less desirable [12] Portfolio Strategy - Bank of America suggested a 25/25/25/25 portfolio allocation: stocks, short-term T-bills, bonds, and gold [13] - A high allocation to short-term instruments like T-bills may be less attractive as money market rates come down with Fed rate cuts [14] - Gold can be used to hedge against inflation, but a diversified portfolio of material stocks could provide similar protection [15]

Market Broadening - The market is expected to broaden, and an equal weight S&P strategy is suggested as the best way to trade this trend [1] - Broadening market may lead to Walmart breaking down [1] Financial Institutions - Citibank is performing well [1] - Money center banks are showing strength [1] Investment Recommendations - Consider Gold, Ethereum, and Bitcoin (crypto) [2] Interest Rates - Interest rates are expected to decrease [1]

Market Performance - S&P 500 posted a record high, contingent on a supportive government report regarding potential Fed rate cuts [1] - The market's broadening is viewed as a healthy sign for two reasons [2] - The market is starting to look at real fundamentals rather than hype surrounding a few stocks [3] - The broader economy is reasonably healthy, as indicated by the market's broadening [3] Economic Outlook - The discussion raises a question of whether the Fed should cut rates when the market is rallying and the economy appears healthy [3]

Market Overview - The market's narrowness, driven by economic uncertainty, has favored sectors like tech, communication services, utilities, and industrials, largely due to the AI trade [2] - The market anticipates a broadening, contingent on the return of corporate confidence and increased capital spending [2][3] Investment Strategy - The firm is looking for turnaround stories, currently undervalued due to a lack of underlying economic growth [4] - The firm seeks to add balance to portfolios with defensive sectors [7] - The firm focuses on execution stories, where companies are bringing projects online and expanding free cash flow [11][12] Specific Company Analysis - Clorox is viewed as a defensive company with limited downside and potential upside, especially if the market declines from all-time highs; consumer staples are at their lowest level (5%) in the S&P 500 since the tech bubble of early 2000 [6][7][8] - Steel Dynamics is considered a low-cost steel producer benefiting from protected steel industries through 232 tariffs; the company has purchased 25% of its shares outstanding over the last four years [9][10][12] - UPS is an execution story [5][11]