Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand in the Singapore market has been stable, but recent incremental supply from the Middle East has led to an oversupply, putting pressure on the downstream premium. The market is currently in a state where supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand co - exist. The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, and the increasing concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil to some extent. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2690 - 2730 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is stable, but supply from the Middle East has made the market oversupplied; the basis shows that the spot is nearly flat to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 140,000 barrels to 21.069 million barrels in the week of November 5; the price is near the 20 - day line which is flat; high - sulfur main positions are short - increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long - increasing. The expected end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil. FU2601: 2690 - 2730, LU2601: 3300 - 3340 [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2675, down 8 or 0.30% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3264, down 4 or 0.12%. The FU basis is - 10, up 9 or 47.35%, and the LU basis is 18, down 17 or 48.63% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 469.00, down 1.00 or 0.21%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 479.00, up 1.00 or 0.21%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 361.65, down 1.91 or 0.53%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 448.52, down 4.98 or 1.10%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 331.38, down 1.53 or 0.46%; Singapore diesel is 694.91, down 9.57 or 1.36% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Focus - **Positive Factors**: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 140,000 barrels in the week of November 5 to 21.069 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade - based expectations indicate that the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes from the West in October will increase compared to September, potentially suppressing the market fundamentals in the short term. However, after the long - holiday in the North Asian market, the downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiry volume is expected to rise. - Overnight frictions between China and the US, along with institutional expectations of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, will continue to put pressure on the fuel oil market. In the short term, fuel oil will remain weak. The FU2601 will trade in the range of 2650 - 2700, and the LU2512 will trade in the range of 3130 - 3190. [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation shows that the expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports may suppress the market, but post - holiday demand is expected to rise; the basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - The expected short - term trend is weak, with FU2601 in the 2650 - 2700 range and LU2512 in the 3130 - 3190 range. [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - Bearish factors: The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports from the West in October; the spot is at a discount to the futures; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing; demand optimism remains to be verified; potential increase in sanctions against Russia; possible extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [3][4] 3. Fundamental Data (1) Futures Quotes | Variety | FU Main Contract Futures Price | LU Main Contract Futures Price | FU Basis | LU Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 2730 | 3240 | 22 | 12 | | Current Value | 2714 | 3216 | - 27 | - 32 | | Change | - 16 | - 24 | - 49 | - 44 | | Percentage Change | - 0.59% | - 0.74% | - 220.05% | - 357.93% | [5] (2) Spot Quotes | Variety | Zhoushan High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Zhoushan Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Middle East High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Diesel | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 469.00 | 480.00 | 374.55 | 442.50 | 351.22 | 639.81 | | Current Value | 462.00 | 473.00 | 362.41 | 432.16 | 340.18 | 630.10 | | Change | - 7.00 | - 7.00 | - 12.14 | - 10.34 | - 11.04 | - 9.72 | | Percentage Change | - 1.49% | - 1.46% | - 3.24% | - 2.34% | - 3.14% | - 1.52% | [6] 4. Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided, only a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads is shown. [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from July 30 to October 8 is also presented, showing fluctuations. [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, it indicates a short - term outlook of a moderately strong and volatile run, with a neutral assessment for most fundamental factors [3]. Core View - The report states that with the upward movement of crude oil prices during trading sessions, continuous positive news, pre - holiday market stocking, and the persistent price - holding attitude of blenders, the high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are still slightly better than those of low - sulfur fuel oil. Fuel oil is expected to run with a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. The expected trading ranges are 2870 - 2920 for FU2601 and 3420 - 3450 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have some demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market is troubled by sufficient inventory. The base - difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 120,000 barrels to 23.159 million barrels in the week of September 17. The price is above the 20 - day line with a flat 20 - day line. High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are both long - biased. The short - term outlook is a moderately strong and volatile run [3]. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply - side influenced by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some raw material demand, especially from China. The main positions are long - biased, and there is pre - holiday stocking and price - holding by blenders [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The demand optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient inventory [3][4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient inventory, and it's difficult to release supply due to the market structure [3]. - **Base - Difference**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 38 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only showing a chart of high - and low - sulfur futures spreads [12]. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of September 17 was 23.159 million barrels, an increase of 120,000 barrels. The report also shows historical inventory data from July 9 to September 17 [3][8].