燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易员表示，高硫燃料油下游需求一直保持稳定，但近期新加坡市场接收了来自中东的增量 供应，导致市场供应过于充裕，高硫燃料油下游溢价开始承压；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油361.65美元/吨，基差为-10元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为448.52美元/吨，基差为18 元/吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月5日当周库存为2106.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：美国政府停摆有望结束带动市场风险偏好回升，盖过供应过剩担忧，国际油价收盘续涨，俄罗斯能源 出口担忧预期开始逐步提升，后续部分对燃油有一定支撑。FU2601：2690-2730区间运行，LU2601：3300-3340 区间运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade - based expectations indicate that the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes from the West in October will increase compared to September, potentially suppressing the market fundamentals in the short term. However, after the long - holiday in the North Asian market, the downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiry volume is expected to rise. - Overnight frictions between China and the US, along with institutional expectations of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, will continue to put pressure on the fuel oil market. In the short term, fuel oil will remain weak. The FU2601 will trade in the range of 2650 - 2700, and the LU2512 will trade in the range of 3130 - 3190. [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation shows that the expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports may suppress the market, but post - holiday demand is expected to rise; the basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - The expected short - term trend is weak, with FU2601 in the 2650 - 2700 range and LU2512 in the 3130 - 3190 range. [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - Bearish factors: The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports from the West in October; the spot is at a discount to the futures; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing; demand optimism remains to be verified; potential increase in sanctions against Russia; possible extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [3][4] 3. Fundamental Data (1) Futures Quotes | Variety | FU Main Contract Futures Price | LU Main Contract Futures Price | FU Basis | LU Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 2730 | 3240 | 22 | 12 | | Current Value | 2714 | 3216 | - 27 | - 32 | | Change | - 16 | - 24 | - 49 | - 44 | | Percentage Change | - 0.59% | - 0.74% | - 220.05% | - 357.93% | [5] (2) Spot Quotes | Variety | Zhoushan High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Zhoushan Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Middle East High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Diesel | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 469.00 | 480.00 | 374.55 | 442.50 | 351.22 | 639.81 | | Current Value | 462.00 | 473.00 | 362.41 | 432.16 | 340.18 | 630.10 | | Change | - 7.00 | - 7.00 | - 12.14 | - 10.34 | - 11.04 | - 9.72 | | Percentage Change | - 1.49% | - 1.46% | - 3.24% | - 2.34% | - 3.14% | - 1.52% | [6] 4. Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided, only a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads is shown. [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from July 30 to October 8 is also presented, showing fluctuations. [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between Russia and Europe, highlighting concerns over potential conflict and the current geopolitical landscape [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Current European Situation - Recent incidents of Russian military aircraft violating the airspace of Poland and Romania have raised alarms about European security [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky has accused Russia of intending to expand the conflict, leading to increased international concern [1]. Statements by Dmitry Medvedev - Medvedev argues that the notion of an inevitable war between Europe and Russia is exaggerated, asserting that Russia has no interest in engaging in conflict with European nations [1]. - He emphasizes that Europe lacks appeal for Russia due to its economic stagnation and dependency on the U.S. political and economic system [1]. - Medvedev highlights the ongoing identity crisis in Europe, exacerbated by large-scale immigration affecting social structures [1]. Russia's Economic Focus - The primary focus for Russia is the development of its economy and the reconstruction of newly acquired territories, which requires significant resources and long-term commitment [1]. - Medvedev reiterates Russia's historical role as a liberator rather than an aggressor in Europe [1]. Analysis of War Risks - Medvedev notes that the European populace exhibits weak fighting spirit, lacking the will to defend their homeland or fight for common ideals [3]. - He warns of the persistent risk of war stemming from unexpected incidents or radical elements taking drastic actions, stressing the potential for localized conflicts to escalate into larger confrontations involving weapons of mass destruction [3]. Internal European Challenges - Europe is characterized by internal divisions, with countries focused on their own economic struggles, lacking the collective strength to engage in war with Russia [4]. - The leadership in Europe is criticized for lacking strategic vision and decisiveness, which undermines the ability to organize large-scale military actions [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, it indicates a short - term outlook of a moderately strong and volatile run, with a neutral assessment for most fundamental factors [3]. Core View - The report states that with the upward movement of crude oil prices during trading sessions, continuous positive news, pre - holiday market stocking, and the persistent price - holding attitude of blenders, the high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are still slightly better than those of low - sulfur fuel oil. Fuel oil is expected to run with a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. The expected trading ranges are 2870 - 2920 for FU2601 and 3420 - 3450 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have some demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market is troubled by sufficient inventory. The base - difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 120,000 barrels to 23.159 million barrels in the week of September 17. The price is above the 20 - day line with a flat 20 - day line. High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are both long - biased. The short - term outlook is a moderately strong and volatile run [3]. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply - side influenced by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some raw material demand, especially from China. The main positions are long - biased, and there is pre - holiday stocking and price - holding by blenders [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The demand optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient inventory [3][4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand from the shipping fuel market and refinery raw material needs. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient inventory, and it's difficult to release supply due to the market structure [3]. - **Base - Difference**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 38 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a base - difference of 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only showing a chart of high - and low - sulfur futures spreads [12]. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of September 17 was 23.159 million barrels, an increase of 120,000 barrels. The report also shows historical inventory data from July 9 to September 17 [3][8].

Group 1 - President Trump announced successful strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, claiming the military operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and halt nuclear threats [1] - Following Trump's statement, reactions from Congress were mixed, with several prominent Republican members supporting the action while some Democrats criticized it as unauthorized military action [3] - The House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, expressed concern over the increased risk of war and the safety of U.S. troops in the region, highlighting Trump's failure to deliver on promises of peace in the Middle East [3] Group 2 - Major U.S. cities, including New York and Washington, entered a heightened state of alert following the airstrikes on Iran, with local police departments increasing security measures at religious, cultural, and diplomatic sites [5] - The New York Police Department stated they are closely monitoring the situation and deploying additional resources as a precaution [5] - Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass indicated that the city is vigilant regarding public safety threats, although no credible threats have been identified at this time [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations expressed concerns regarding reports of the United States potentially joining the ongoing conflict [1] Group 1 - The Iranian ambassador highlighted the apprehension about the U.S. involvement in the war, indicating a significant geopolitical concern [1]

Core Insights - The meeting between Qatar Energy and its partners in Northern Oilfield is focused on discussing the risks posed to Qatar's natural gas production due to the Iraq war [1] Group 1 - Qatar Energy is actively engaging with its partners to address potential threats to its natural gas output [1]