丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 落实存量 PPP 项目付费+化债+理顺公用事业价 格，垃圾焚烧&水务现金流预期向好 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期财政部针对存量 PPP 项目发布指导意见，对地方政府落实存量 PPP 项目付费及付费资金 来源提出意见；截至 2025/8/22，2025 年置换隐债 2 万亿元额度已落地 95%，地方政府专项债 加速落地；国家发改委转发经济日报文章《理顺公用事业价格》，今年以来多个地区水价、垃圾 处置费价格有序提升。关注业绩稳健、分红提升、估值修复、现金流向好的垃圾焚烧、水务运 营赛道。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 落实存量 ...

大宗建材方面：1、水泥：（1）八月下旬，受资金面持续紧张，以及部分地区仍有高 温、雨水天气影响，整体市场需求恢复较为缓慢，国内重点地区水泥企业平均出货率在 45.7%左右。价格方面，部分省份已陆续完成首轮提价，为巩固当前涨价成果，企业有意继 续推动价格上行。预计后续水泥价格将呈稳中偏强趋势运行。（2）行业供给自律共识有望 进一步强化，全年盈利中枢有望好于去年。尽管Q2因需求波动或错峰执行问题供需阶段性 失衡、价格出现回落，但今年行业在主导企业引领下维护利润的意愿显著增强，我们认为供 需再平衡时间仍然会明显好于去年，8月中下旬标志性市场或开启提价，节点有望较去年提 前，全年盈利中枢有望高于去年。（3）板块市净率估值处于历史底部，产业政策落地有望 推动盈利持续修复、估值回升。水泥企业市净率估值处于历史低位，板块分红比例提升。行 业景气低位为进一步的整合带来机遇。产能产量管控政策有望逐步落实，有望推动僵尸产能 退出，改善产能严重过剩区域的供给矛盾。水泥行业纳入全国碳市场，碳排放对供给的约束 趋严有望加速过剩产能出清和行业整合。（4）龙头企业综合竞争优势凸显，中长期有望受 益于行业格局优化，估值有望迎来修复，推荐全国 ...

信用债周策略 20250824 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 科创债 ETF 上市以来大部分交易日的日度资金呈现净流入状态，而基准做市信 用债 ETF 的日度资金则大多为净流出状态。8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 于年初上 市，截至 7 月 23 日前整体申购情况较为稳定，每日基本都有资金净流入，自 7 月 23 日开始债市行情走弱，基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金连续出现三天大额净流 出，合计规模超 50 亿元，其中 7 月 24 日的单日净流出规模最大，为 25 亿元。 科创债 ETF 方面，上市当日市场资金大额流入，10 只科创债 ETF 的单日资金净 流入额在 474 亿元左右，上市两日资金净流入超 660 亿元，随后日度资金流入 势头明显放缓，申购情况趋于稳定。7 月 17 日以来至今，8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金净流出规模为 77 亿元，而科创债 ETF 的资金净流入规模为 918 亿 元，可能存在基准做市信用债 ETF 的申购资金被分流到科创债 ETF 的情况。 2025 年以来的三轮调整中，大部分信用债 ETF 的赎回压力可控 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The State Council has issued a notice regarding the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction and Operation of Existing PPP Projects," which has received approval from the State Council, marking the arrival of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of ensuring the smooth progress of projects, with government debt clearly designated for the payment of existing projects [11] - The report highlights the need for mid-term focus on sustained growth, with fiscal efforts and major projects as two key drivers [11] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Regulatory Guidance**: The issuance of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects aims to optimize credit approval processes and ensure the stability of credit funds, which will enhance the government's payment capacity for these projects [11] - **Asset Quality Improvement**: If the implementation of PPP projects is secured, it is expected to solidify the asset quality of construction companies, potentially leading to a recovery in price-to-book ratios [11] - **Fiscal and Project Initiatives**: The report outlines that the urgency for stabilizing growth has increased, with expectations for new policy financial tools and significant project investments to support infrastructure development [11] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with low price-to-book ratios and ecological landscape companies, particularly those benefiting directly from PPP projects and major regional developments [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance asset management industry, particularly in innovative products, with a focus on structural adjustments and growth in asset-backed securities (ABS) and equity investments [5][38]. Core Insights - The insurance asset management industry is experiencing accelerated structural adjustments, with a notable increase in the registration scale of innovative products, driven by the expansion of asset-backed plans and significant growth in equity investment plans and private equity funds [7][26]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning investment strategies with government policies, particularly in the areas of "green finance" and new infrastructure projects, to achieve a balance between long-term returns and compliance with regulatory frameworks [34][36]. - The insurance asset management sector is expected to continue focusing on innovative products, with a shift towards equity investments and private equity funds, while traditional debt investment plans are declining in both quantity and scale [38][40]. Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased by 6.35% year-on-year to 444.046 billion yuan, despite a 31-product decline in registration numbers [8][10]. - The debt investment plan remains the primary product type, accounting for 72.49% of the number and 47.78% of the scale, although its registration scale and quantity have significantly decreased [11][12]. - The growth of equity investment plans and private equity funds is notable, with the registration scale of private equity funds increasing by 524.94% year-on-year [26][27]. Institutional Operation Analysis - In the first half of 2025, Huatai Asset Management led in the registration scale and quantity of debt investment plans, while Everbright's asset-backed plans also showed strong performance [28][30]. - The number of institutions participating in equity investment plans increased significantly, with a total of 11 plans registered, amounting to 267.87 billion yuan [33]. - The report emphasizes the need for insurance asset management institutions to diversify their asset types and explore new investment opportunities that align with the characteristics of long-term insurance funds [19][21]. Policy Overview - Recent government policies have focused on promoting urban renewal and enhancing market-oriented financing mechanisms, which are expected to create investment opportunities for insurance asset management institutions [34][35]. - The report notes that the expansion of the long-term investment pilot program for insurance funds will inject more capital into the market, particularly in the areas of infrastructure and green finance [36][39]. - The insurance asset management sector is encouraged to prioritize investments in PPP projects and urban renewal initiatives, aligning with national strategies for sustainable development [38][40].

证券代码：002663 证券简称：普邦股份 公告编号：2025-045 广州普邦园林股份有限公司 2025 年第二季度经营情况简报 二、重大项目履行情况 2016年11月28日，郑州市中原区高新社会事务中心城市管理部（原郑州高新技术产业开 发区管理委员会市政管理局，以下简称"甲方"）发布"郑州高新区市政绿化PPP项目中标、成 交结果公告"，确认公司和梅州市市政建设集团公司联合体（以下合称"中标人"）为郑州高新 区市政绿化PPP项目（以下简称"项目"）的中标社会资本方。中标人与政府方代表郑州高新智 慧城市运营集团有限公司（原郑州高新市政建设有限公司）于2017年4月10日在郑州市成立了 郑州高新区锦邦建设有限公司（以下简称"项目公司"）。甲方和项目公司于2017年4月19日签 署《郑州高新区市政绿化PPP项目合同》（以下简称"《项目合同》"），项目投资金额为33.20亿 元，业务模式为PPP模式，项目合作期为15年（其中建设期5年、运营期10年）。具体情况详见 公司于2021年7月17日披露的《关于签署<郑州高新区市政绿化PPP项目合同>的补充披露公告》 （公告编号：2021-040）。 本公司及董事会全体成员 ...

Summary of Conference Call on the Construction Industry Industry Overview - The construction industry has initiated an anti-involution campaign, with responses from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), national enterprises, and private enterprises aimed at avoiding unfair competition such as bid-rigging and lowest-bid wins, which is expected to improve the industry ecosystem [1][2] - Major infrastructure projects like the Yalong River Hydropower Station, with an investment scale of 1.2 trillion yuan, are anticipated to become new growth points for infrastructure demand, alongside projects like the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal and the Pinglu Canal [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The construction industry is currently at the bottom of the chip, stock price, and supply-demand structure, with a strong push for steel structure buildings expected to increase penetration rates, shifting market expectations from pessimistic to optimistic [1][3] - Historical data indicates that supply-side contraction can lead to economic improvement, and reducing vicious competition can enhance corporate profit levels; policy support and improved market conditions are crucial for the sustainable development of the construction industry [1][4][5] - The construction industry does not have fixed capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments based on demand changes, which differentiates it from other cyclical industries like cement and steel [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on Honglu Steel Structure, which is expected to benefit from rising steel prices, leading to a dual boost in valuation and performance; it has greater earnings elasticity compared to traditional SOEs [1][6] - Attention should also be given to undervalued SOEs such as China Power Construction and China Energy Construction, which may see valuation recovery as competition improves [9] - Other recommended stocks include high-dividend SOEs like China State Construction and Sichuan Road & Bridge, which are expected to improve operational quality [9] Marginal Changes and Policy Catalysts - The construction industry is experiencing its first revenue decline in 2024 due to severe internal competition, with leading firms reporting economic profits of only 1-2% [2] - The anti-involution measures, including avoiding bid-rigging and illegal subcontracting, are expected to bring about significant industry changes [2] Future Development Conditions - The sustainable development of the construction industry relies on continued policy support and market environment improvements, including the promotion of large-scale infrastructure projects [5] - Reducing vicious competition and enhancing corporate profitability are essential for future growth [5] Potential Risks and Opportunities - The steel structure industry may see similar opportunities as the steel sector experiences price increases due to potential joint production cuts and rising demand expectations [8] - Companies like Zhongcai International and Zhonggong International, which serve downstream cement and steel plants, may face short-term challenges due to reduced capital expenditures but could benefit from improved cash flow conditions in the long run [9]

Group 1: Wastewater Treatment Business Overview - The wastewater treatment business is the core of the company's operations, utilizing a concession model for daily processing and fee collection [2] - In 2024, the company processed approximately 936 million tons of wastewater, averaging about 2.56 million tons per day [2] - The main cost components of wastewater treatment include electricity, chemicals, equipment maintenance, safety management, depreciation, personnel costs, and laboratory expenses [2] Group 2: Pricing and Contractual Aspects - The company can apply for price adjustments based on the concession agreement when the pricing mechanism is triggered [3] - The typical concession agreement duration for wastewater treatment projects in Zhengzhou is 30 years, with options for transfer, repurchase, or renewal upon expiration [3] Group 3: Upgrading and Compliance - Recent upgrades have been made to meet higher discharge standards, such as the upgrade of certain plants to the Yellow River Basin's first-level discharge standards [3] - The company has completed the upgrade of the first phase of the Ma Taogang wastewater treatment plant to first-level A standards [3] Group 4: Financial and Operational Insights - The company enjoys a national tax incentive policy of three exemptions and three reductions for its wastewater treatment business [3] - The average financing cost is around 3%, with a focus on cost reduction as a key task for 2025 [4] - The company is actively monitoring external market opportunities for strategic acquisitions, assessing projects based on IRR/ROE criteria [4] Group 5: Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow - Accounts receivable primarily consist of government debts related to wastewater treatment and PPP projects, with ongoing efforts to ensure timely collections [4] - Current cash flow is under pressure due to issues with accounts receivable collections [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lingnan Ecological Culture and Tourism Co., Ltd., is currently involved in a lawsuit initiated by the Agricultural Development Bank of China due to a financial loan contract dispute, which may have uncertain impacts on its profits [1][5]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit was filed by the Agricultural Development Bank of China, Dongguan Branch, against Lingnan Water (Lianping) Co., Ltd. and Lingnan Ecological Culture and Tourism Co., Ltd. for a loan amount of RMB 199,452,405 [1][2]. - The interest accrued until June 4, 2025, is estimated at RMB 8,081,441.24, with penalties and compound interest also applicable [1][2]. - The loan was originally for RMB 515 million, designated for a PPP project in Lianping County, with a term of 180 months and an annual interest rate of 4.9% [2][3]. Group 2: Project Status and Implications - The PPP project has been suspended due to a directive from the Lianping County Finance Bureau, which has affected the loan agreement and the need for further funding [3][4]. - The company has provided a joint liability guarantee for the loan, and the lawsuit may lead to the early termination of the loan contract, impacting the company's financial standing [5][6]. - The company is actively seeking solutions and engaging with the bank to address the lawsuit and its implications on future profits [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Dasin Intelligent (002421.SZ) has decided to terminate its PPP project cooperation for the construction of Hongze District People's Hospital, transferring its 69.7673% stake in Jiangsu Hongze Lake Dasin Smart Medical and Elderly Care Co., Ltd. for 165 million yuan, while recovering 47.88 million yuan of its 205 million yuan debt through debt restructuring [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Termination and Financial Impact - The termination of the PPP project is due to lower-than-expected revenue from hospital services, which has constrained cash flow for the project company [1][4] - The transaction is expected to negatively impact the company's profit by approximately 309 million yuan, while increasing cash by about 213 million yuan, reducing liabilities by approximately 1.055 billion yuan, and relieving bank guarantee responsibilities by about 817 million yuan [1][2][3] Group 2: Company Performance and Revenue Decline - In Q1 2025, Dasin Intelligent reported revenue of 438 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 25.84%, with a net loss of 41.48 million yuan compared to a profit of 3.84 million yuan in the same period last year [7][8] - The company's revenue from hospital users has consistently accounted for over 30% of total revenue since 2017, indicating a significant reliance on this sector [5][6] - For 2023 and 2024, the company projected revenues of 3.833 billion yuan and 3.171 billion yuan, reflecting growth of 6.64% and a decline of 17.28% respectively, with net profits showing a significant decrease [7]