Market Overview - On January 6, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a relatively positive trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis fluctuated within a range, with concentrated transactions in early January [1] - The main spot basis was at 05-46, with transactions occurring at 05-47 to 05-48 and later at 05-45 and 05-42 [1] Profitability - As of January 6, the PTA spot processing fee was around 296 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 futures were 329 yuan/ton and 336 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 4, Dushan Energy's 2.5 million tons facility resumed operations, while Zhongtai's 1.2 million tons facility restarted at low capacity. Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons facility increased its output, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 78.1% [1] - Demand: As of January 4, there was a mix of facility restarts and maintenance, with polyester operating rates at approximately 90.8%. On January 6, there were localized adjustments in the price of polyester yarn, with individual sales performance varying. Factory inventory levels were relatively low, but inventory slightly increased due to insufficient sales. If raw material prices stabilize, short-term prices are expected to remain steady, with attention on upcoming holiday and maintenance plans [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of PTA processing fees, uncertainties regarding PTA facility maintenance in Q1 have increased. Some facilities are returning to supply, while downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, leading to heightened expectations of inventory accumulation for PTA in Q1. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and significant losses will gradually highlight the pressure on polyester factories, prompting some to implement production cuts and maintenance plans for January and February. The supply-demand outlook for PTA in January is expected to weaken, with limited self-driven momentum for PTA, primarily following raw material fluctuations. The strategy suggests PTA will oscillate between 5000-5200 in the short term, with a low bullish approach in the medium term [1]

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a volatile downward trend, with the main contract opening at 5230.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 5242.00 CNY and a low of 5066.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.95% [1] - Institutions predict a shift towards a favorable supply-demand balance for PTA in the coming year, driven by planned maintenance and reduced output from major facilities, although current price increases have outpaced downstream products, leading to profit compression [2] - The overall maintenance of PTA facilities is high, with some recovery in output this week, while downstream demand remains relatively strong but is expected to weaken, indicating a tight supply-demand balance in the short term [2][3] Group 2 - Polyester production remains stable, with good raw material demand; however, there is a risk of negative feedback due to accelerated reductions in output from weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, compressing profit margins [3] - The current supply of PTA is tight due to significant maintenance, and social inventory continues to decrease, with first-quarter accumulation expectations lower than previous years [3] - The processing fee for PTA has seen some recovery, and the absolute price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, suggesting a focus on cost changes for trading strategies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price has shown a correction. With no unexpected news in the fundamentals, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2]. - PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The supply of PTA is currently sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA plants in early August will be fulfilled [2]. - The polyester production cut is currently on hold, and the operation remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment so far [2]. - The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has once again tilted towards the raw material segment due to the strong driving force of the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $69.26 per barrel, down 1.06%; Brent crude oil was $72.53 per barrel, down 0.97%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $611 per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $725.5 per ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $857 per ton, down 1.08% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,808 yuan per ton, down 0.99%; the settlement price was 4,842 yuan per ton, down 0.57%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,831 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,826 yuan per ton, down 0.66%; the external price index was $644 per ton, up 0.63% [1]. - **PX**: As of July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,928 yuan per ton, down 0.80%; the settlement price was 6,980 yuan per ton, down 0.14%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,859 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $246 per ton, down 4.68%; the PX - MX spread was $131.5 per ton, down 16.15% [1]. - **PR**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.67%; the settlement price was 5,996 yuan per ton, down 0.66%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Downstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY 68D and 150D increased by 0.72% to 6,950 yuan per ton; the price index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,595 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - As of July 31, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain remained unchanged at 77.29%. The load rate of PTA plants was 76.64%, down 2.81 percentage points; the load rate of polyester plants remained unchanged at 86.28%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants remained unchanged at 71.93%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, down 0.92 percentage points [1]. Production and Sales - As of July 31, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 27%, down 83 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 49%, up 6 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 72%, down 17 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - EIA data shows that both crude oil and refined oil products in the US have accumulated inventories, but the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the uncertainty brought by Trump's sanctions on Russia have overshadowed these negative factors, causing oil prices to continue a relatively strong trend [2]. - New PTA devices are scheduled to be put into operation in the third quarter, resulting in a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected supporting factors [2]. - During the off - season of polyester consumption, after the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operation [2]. - Although some PTA devices in East China have short - term shutdowns and reduced loads, the impact on production is small, and the boost to the PTA market is limited [2]. - The overall market of bulk chemicals is weak, and the PTA market has declined. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - level range, but unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season demand [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the concentrated maintenance of PTA plants and the intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The load of PX plants has changed with the large - scale maintenance of reforming plants. More domestic PTA and reforming plants are planned for maintenance in May. PTA has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has calmed down [2]. - The profits of polyester downstream products have been compressed, and the polyester load has remained at a high level. Recently, polyester sales have continued to improve, and polyester inventory has been significantly reduced. However, the downstream load is decreasing, and the terminal export demand has weakened significantly. PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle, with an expected de - stocking amplitude of over 400,000 tons, and the de - stocking will stop in June [2]. - PXN has shrunk to 160, and the price difference between PX - MX has shrunk to 65. The load of domestic PX plants has declined. The processing fee of PTA still remains at around 350 yuan and has increased slightly. The downstream of polyester may cut production, including FDY, short - fiber, and bottle, with reduced downstream load and significantly fewer orders [2][3]. 3) Data Summary Price and Price Difference Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4415 to 4585, a change of 170 [2]. - MEG inner - market price increased from 4188 to 4210, a change of 22 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price increased from 6375 to 6460, a change of 85 [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from 310 to 293, a change of - 17 [2]. - 5 - 6 spread decreased from 62 to 50, a change of - 12 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 525 to 610, a change of 85 [2]. - The price of East China water - bottle chips increased from 5710 to 5790, a change of 80 [2]. - The price of outer - market water - bottle chips increased from 750 to 760, a change of 10 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 532 to 459, a change of - 72.72 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4225 to 4140, a change of - 85 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 13915 to 13875, a change of - 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 2064 to 2022, a change of - 41.23 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) increased from 6890 to 6915, a change of 25 [2]. - The cash flow of hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 512 to 384, a change of - 127.72 [2]. Load and Production and Sales Changes - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3]. - Polyester short - fiber production and sales increased from 70.00% to 74.00%, a change of 4.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]