需求：截至1月4日，装置重启与检修并存，聚酯负荷至90.8%附近。1月6日，涤丝价格中心局部调整， 产销个体分化。当前工厂权益库存相对较低，近期产销不足的情况下，库存小幅攀升为主。若是原料端 暂稳，考虑后期放假因素，短期价格还是持稳为主。关注后期放假和检修计划。 1月6日，PTA现货加工费至296元/吨附近，TA2603盘面加工费329元/吨，TA2605盘面加工费336元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应：截止1月4日，独山能源250万吨重启，中泰120万吨重启后低负荷运行，威联化学250万吨装置提 负，PTA负荷在78.1%。 【现货方面】 1月6日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差区间波动，月下成交较为集中。本周货 源在05贴水47~48附近商谈成交，月中在05-45有成交，价格商谈区间在5040~5120。1月下在05贴水45有 成交，月底少量在05-42成交。本周仓单在05-48有成交。主流现货基差在05-46。 【利润方面】 【行情展望】 随着PTA加工费修复，1季度PTA装置检修不确定性增加，近期部分装置供应回归，而下游聚酯春节前 后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度累库预期增强，且高供应弱 ...

12月29日，国内期市能化板块有涨有跌。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报5230.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及5242.00元，下方探低5066.00元，跌幅达1.95%附近。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 东海期货指出，商品共振带动下，PTA明年供需向好格局转变预期，以及近期头部装置计划外降负及检 修，带动盘面大幅增仓上行。但目前PTA涨幅已经高于下游产品，丝端和瓶片等品类的产销大幅回落， 利润也再度收到挤压，短期难以支撑PTA原料采购。PTA目前资金和产业形成较大割裂，价格已出现明 显回调，但后期大幅深跌空间不大，将继续保持偏强震荡。 中辉期货表示，PTA装置检修力度整体偏高，本周部分装置有所恢复。下游需求相对较好但预期走弱。 但短期供需平衡偏紧，1月存累库预期。上游成本短期快速拉涨挤压下游利润空间，关注聚酯负反馈。 策略推荐供需紧平衡，关注05逢回调买入机会。TA05【5050-5250】。 国信期货分析称，上周聚酯开工偏稳，原料刚需较好，但江浙织机降负加速，成品毛利压缩，需求有负 反馈风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price has shown a correction. With no unexpected news in the fundamentals, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2]. - PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The supply of PTA is currently sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA plants in early August will be fulfilled [2]. - The polyester production cut is currently on hold, and the operation remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment so far [2]. - The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has once again tilted towards the raw material segment due to the strong driving force of the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $69.26 per barrel, down 1.06%; Brent crude oil was $72.53 per barrel, down 0.97%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $611 per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $725.5 per ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $857 per ton, down 1.08% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,808 yuan per ton, down 0.99%; the settlement price was 4,842 yuan per ton, down 0.57%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,831 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,826 yuan per ton, down 0.66%; the external price index was $644 per ton, up 0.63% [1]. - **PX**: As of July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,928 yuan per ton, down 0.80%; the settlement price was 6,980 yuan per ton, down 0.14%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,859 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $246 per ton, down 4.68%; the PX - MX spread was $131.5 per ton, down 16.15% [1]. - **PR**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.67%; the settlement price was 5,996 yuan per ton, down 0.66%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Downstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY 68D and 150D increased by 0.72% to 6,950 yuan per ton; the price index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,595 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - As of July 31, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain remained unchanged at 77.29%. The load rate of PTA plants was 76.64%, down 2.81 percentage points; the load rate of polyester plants remained unchanged at 86.28%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants remained unchanged at 71.93%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, down 0.92 percentage points [1]. Production and Sales - As of July 31, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 27%, down 83 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 49%, up 6 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 72%, down 17 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - EIA data shows that both crude oil and refined oil products in the US have accumulated inventories, but the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the uncertainty brought by Trump's sanctions on Russia have overshadowed these negative factors, causing oil prices to continue a relatively strong trend [2]. - New PTA devices are scheduled to be put into operation in the third quarter, resulting in a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected supporting factors [2]. - During the off - season of polyester consumption, after the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operation [2]. - Although some PTA devices in East China have short - term shutdowns and reduced loads, the impact on production is small, and the boost to the PTA market is limited [2]. - The overall market of bulk chemicals is weak, and the PTA market has declined. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - level range, but unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season demand [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the concentrated maintenance of PTA plants and the intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The load of PX plants has changed with the large - scale maintenance of reforming plants. More domestic PTA and reforming plants are planned for maintenance in May. PTA has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has calmed down [2]. - The profits of polyester downstream products have been compressed, and the polyester load has remained at a high level. Recently, polyester sales have continued to improve, and polyester inventory has been significantly reduced. However, the downstream load is decreasing, and the terminal export demand has weakened significantly. PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle, with an expected de - stocking amplitude of over 400,000 tons, and the de - stocking will stop in June [2]. - PXN has shrunk to 160, and the price difference between PX - MX has shrunk to 65. The load of domestic PX plants has declined. The processing fee of PTA still remains at around 350 yuan and has increased slightly. The downstream of polyester may cut production, including FDY, short - fiber, and bottle, with reduced downstream load and significantly fewer orders [2][3]. 3) Data Summary Price and Price Difference Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4415 to 4585, a change of 170 [2]. - MEG inner - market price increased from 4188 to 4210, a change of 22 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price increased from 6375 to 6460, a change of 85 [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from 310 to 293, a change of - 17 [2]. - 5 - 6 spread decreased from 62 to 50, a change of - 12 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 525 to 610, a change of 85 [2]. - The price of East China water - bottle chips increased from 5710 to 5790, a change of 80 [2]. - The price of outer - market water - bottle chips increased from 750 to 760, a change of 10 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 532 to 459, a change of - 72.72 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4225 to 4140, a change of - 85 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 13915 to 13875, a change of - 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 2064 to 2022, a change of - 41.23 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) increased from 6890 to 6915, a change of 25 [2]. - The cash flow of hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 512 to 384, a change of - 127.72 [2]. Load and Production and Sales Changes - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3]. - Polyester short - fiber production and sales increased from 70.00% to 74.00%, a change of 4.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]