投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.5 | 496. 7 | -1.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,盘中PX行情偏强,成本支撑PTA。 或担忧下游聚酯减产,PTA现货基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1155. 4 | 1188. 4 | 33. 08 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3189 | 1. 3292 | 0. 0103 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 868 | 874 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 298 | 304 | 6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The war between Iran and Israel has eased, causing a significant decline in the crude oil market, and the chemical industry has followed suit. The downstream polyester load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, but the actual polyester output has reached a new high. Recent promotions have led to inventory reduction. PTA will likely see inventory reduction in the coming period, and the actions of major factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has recently experienced rapid inventory reduction, and inventory levels have increased significantly. The market's purchasing willingness has strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. The maintenance of a Northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow the trend of the crude oil decline. The rising ethylene price has pushed up the cost, and Iran's petrochemical exports are expected to be affected, but the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has expanded, and the recent obstruction of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. Polyester production cuts will have a certain impact on the market, and a large - scale Northeast plant has restarted. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little, and the recovery of the load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants will put pressure on the market, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 502.9 yuan/barrel on June 26, 2025, to 498.5 yuan/barrel on June 27, 2025, a decrease of 4.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 1115.4 yuan/ton to 1155.4 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3052 to 1.3189; CFR China PX price increased from 853 to 868; PX - naphtha spread increased from 274 to 298; PTA main contract futures price rose from 4770 yuan/ton to 4778 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5020 yuan/ton to 5025 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 417.9 yuan/ton to 341.3 yuan/ton; disk processing fee decreased from 157.9 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton; main contract basis decreased from 259 to 255; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 35952 to 35022 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main contract futures price dropped from 4293 yuan/ton to 4271 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (100.69) yuan/ton to (100.88) yuan/ton; MEG domestic price decreased from 4379 yuan/ton to 4346 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from 67 to 69 [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: PX operating rate remained at 80.43%; PTA operating rate remained at 78.56%; MEG operating rate remained at 55.77%; polyester load decreased from 90.01% to 89.35% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 7165 yuan/ton to 7075 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 156 to 73; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 7475 yuan/ton to 7360 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from (34) to (142); DTY150D/48F price decreased from 8410 yuan/ton to 8330 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 201 to 128; filament sales increased from 28% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6855 yuan/ton to 6805 yuan/ton; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 196 to 153; staple fiber sales increased from 43% to 53% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price remained at 5905 yuan/ton; chip cash flow increased from (204) to (197); chip sales increased from 40% to 62% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [2]

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 53.00% 27.00% -26. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 t T325年演出 (群炉) 图片员22日 短规金流 ·1.4D直线条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 泽梯少利润 泽棉纱65/35 45S 中空短 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 566. 6 | 574.5 | 7.90 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,原油高开低走,PTA行情冲高回落 | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 860. 5 | 837. 1 | -23.41 | 。午后传闻华东某PX企业可能减少7月长约供应量,暂 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2090 | 1. 2005 | -0. 0085 | 无官宣消息,午后PTA行情一度反弹。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 896 | 899 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 250 | 253 | 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【 一 国贸 期货 得资讯。 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 -3.00% 54. 00% 51.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤观金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 t T325年演出 (探偵) 太原始術 (群贝) 解日示52E= 器短现金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2023-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/6/18 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/16 | 2025/6/17 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 541.6 | 529.8 | -11.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,原油反弹,PTA货少利好延续,主 | | SC | | | | | 力供应商挺市,现货基差走强,贸易商追涨高基差, | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 830. 1 | 931.9 | 101. 75 | 下游聚酯工厂抵触高基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2109 | 1. 2420 | 0. 0311 | | | | CFR中国PX | 866 | 884 | 18 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 246 | 2 ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/13 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/11 | 2025/6/12 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 478. 1 1145.6 | 495. 7 1017. 7 | 17. 60 -127.90 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,美国和中东某国之间的紧张局势 升级,布伦特原油价格一度涨至4月3日以来的高点, | | | | | | | 推涨PTA行情。PTA仓单数量上升,现货流动性暂时偏 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3297 | 1. 2825 | -0. 0472 | 紧,现货基差走强。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 812 | 818 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 239 | 247 | 8 | | | | PTA ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the concentrated maintenance of PTA plants and the intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The load of PX plants has changed with the large - scale maintenance of reforming plants. More domestic PTA and reforming plants are planned for maintenance in May. PTA has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has calmed down [2]. - The profits of polyester downstream products have been compressed, and the polyester load has remained at a high level. Recently, polyester sales have continued to improve, and polyester inventory has been significantly reduced. However, the downstream load is decreasing, and the terminal export demand has weakened significantly. PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle, with an expected de - stocking amplitude of over 400,000 tons, and the de - stocking will stop in June [2]. - PXN has shrunk to 160, and the price difference between PX - MX has shrunk to 65. The load of domestic PX plants has declined. The processing fee of PTA still remains at around 350 yuan and has increased slightly. The downstream of polyester may cut production, including FDY, short - fiber, and bottle, with reduced downstream load and significantly fewer orders [2][3]. 3) Data Summary Price and Price Difference Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4415 to 4585, a change of 170 [2]. - MEG inner - market price increased from 4188 to 4210, a change of 22 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price increased from 6375 to 6460, a change of 85 [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from 310 to 293, a change of - 17 [2]. - 5 - 6 spread decreased from 62 to 50, a change of - 12 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 525 to 610, a change of 85 [2]. - The price of East China water - bottle chips increased from 5710 to 5790, a change of 80 [2]. - The price of outer - market water - bottle chips increased from 750 to 760, a change of 10 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 532 to 459, a change of - 72.72 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4225 to 4140, a change of - 85 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 13915 to 13875, a change of - 40 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 2064 to 2022, a change of - 41.23 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) increased from 6890 to 6915, a change of 25 [2]. - The cash flow of hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 512 to 384, a change of - 127.72 [2]. Load and Production and Sales Changes - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3]. - Polyester short - fiber production and sales increased from 70.00% to 74.00%, a change of 4.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]