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大越期货PVC期货早报-20250910
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4816 - 4878. The main influencing factors include cost, supply, demand, and inventory. The cost is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand may remain sluggish, and the inventory is at a high level. [9][14] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The downstream overall start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening, and the production scheduling may be under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish. [7][8] - **Basis**: On September 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [11] - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene plant inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish. [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases. It is bearish. [11] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The futures prices of different contracts and varieties decreased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.88%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.87%, etc. The downstream start - up rates of different products also changed. The profile start - up rate decreased by 9.88%, the pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.39%, etc. The profit of calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.45% month - on - month, and the profit of ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.85% month - on - month. [17] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [20] - **Trend and Volume**: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract from August to September 2025. [23] - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread between different contracts (such as 1 - 9 spread, 5 - 9 spread) from 2024 to 2025. [26] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 - 2025. For example, the price of blue charcoal medium material in Shenmu, the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, etc. [29][32][34][36] - **Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method this week was 76.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and production - sales rate of PVC from 2019 - 2025. For example, the downstream average start - up rate of PVC, the start - up rate of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. [44][46] - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide plant inventory, ethylene plant inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 are shown. For example, the calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. [55] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane in different months. [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025. For example, the production in August 2025 was 1.94 million tons, and the demand was 1.81 million tons. [60]
大越期货PVC期货早报-20250829
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4981. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - On August 28, 2025, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, showing a neutral signal [11]. - The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC output was 200.461 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 32.8255 tons, a decrease of 3.94% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 13.656 tons, a decrease of 2.04% month - on - month. The supply pressure decreased this week. It is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase slightly [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.65%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 33.61%, an increase of 0.649 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 70.77%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.53%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [7]. Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2727.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices of different varieties, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and more [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][43]. - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates of different products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][49][54][57]. - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory - to - production days of enterprises [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price differences in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].
大越期货PVC期货早报-20250709
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 02:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the PVC market comprehensively, with a neutral overall view on the fundamentals. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4862 - 4926. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [5][9][12][13]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, PVC production was 1991340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 344825 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 110390 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.100 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 34.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 39.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.939 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 552 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 695 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2438.15 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - Basis: On July 8, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 44 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 386268 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 301658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%. Social inventory was 373100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11%. It is neutral [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - Expectation: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4862 - 4926 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates of downstream industries and profit and cost data of different production methods [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures, the market price of PVC in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - It shows the historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread) in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [26][29][31][34]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [39][40][43]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries (such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [45][46][54][55][58]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [59][60]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method of PVC production [61][62]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, and presents the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC [64][65].