1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's overall view on PVC investment is bearish [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4944 - 5002 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2516.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Basis - On September 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 123 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This is bearish [9]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9]. 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. This is neutral [9]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. This is bearish [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the PVC market on the previous day, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types and regions [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [38][40]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [42][45][49][52]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [53]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads [55]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4816 - 4878. The main influencing factors include cost, supply, demand, and inventory. The cost is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand may remain sluggish, and the inventory is at a high level. [9][14] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The downstream overall start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening, and the production scheduling may be under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish. [7][8] - **Basis**: On September 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [11] - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene plant inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish. [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases. It is bearish. [11] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The futures prices of different contracts and varieties decreased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.88%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.87%, etc. The downstream start - up rates of different products also changed. The profile start - up rate decreased by 9.88%, the pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.39%, etc. The profit of calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.45% month - on - month, and the profit of ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.85% month - on - month. [17] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [20] - **Trend and Volume**: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract from August to September 2025. [23] - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread between different contracts (such as 1 - 9 spread, 5 - 9 spread) from 2024 to 2025. [26] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 - 2025. For example, the price of blue charcoal medium material in Shenmu, the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, etc. [29][32][34][36] - **Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method this week was 76.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and production - sales rate of PVC from 2019 - 2025. For example, the downstream average start - up rate of PVC, the start - up rate of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. [44][46] - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide plant inventory, ethylene plant inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 are shown. For example, the calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. [55] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane in different months. [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025. For example, the production in August 2025 was 1.94 million tons, and the demand was 1.81 million tons. [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [9][14] - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On August 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [11] - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene factory warehouse was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, which is neutral. [11] - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish. [11] - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. The supply pressure decreased this week. The downstream overall operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. The fundamentals are neutral. [5][7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2737.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, basis, inventory, production, profit, and other aspects, including price changes of different regions and varieties, month - to - month changes in inventory, and profit changes in different production methods. [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract. [18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Presents the historical trend chart of the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025. [24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Displays the historical data of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the historical data of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the historical data of liquid chlorine price, output, raw salt price, and monthly output. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the historical data of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises, as well as data on caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory. [35] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of sample enterprises. [40] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). Also includes data on paste resin cost - profit, output, and consumption, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [45] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [58] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the historical data of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread. [60] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import. [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [8]. - From the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - In terms of cost, the profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The calcium carbide method cost is strengthening, the ethylene method cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,975 - 5,063. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [10][14]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market data shows various indicators such as prices, spreads, inventories, and start - up rates. For example, the price of 01 contract increased by 0.30% to 5,019 yuan/ton, the social inventory increased by 3.08% to 508,000 tons, and the profile start - up rate increased by 2.00% to 37.65% [16]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract over time [18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - It shows the trading volume, price trends, and changes in the positions of the top 5/20 seats of the main PVC futures contract in 2025, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and moving averages [21]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) in 2024 and 2025, helping to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 to 2025 [27]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - It shows the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2025 [30]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025, as well as the double - ton price difference and caustic soda apparent consumption trends [35][38]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [40][43]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [45][49][54][57]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [58]. 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [60]. 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].