交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.97%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期: 预计排产将会增加。总体库存处于高位；当前需求或持续低迷；持续关注宏观政策及出口动态， PVC2601:在4905-4965区间震荡。 3 每日观点 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.96%，环比减少0.04个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8605万吨，环比减少3.14%,乙烯法企业产 量13.231万吨，环比减少5.16%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.26%，环比增加.76个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.13%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量32.7885万吨，环比减少0.68%,乙烯法企业产 量13.406万吨，环比增加7.11%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为43.5%，环比增加.899个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.39%，环比减少4.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.48%，环比减少0.13个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] - **Main Risk Points**: Implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,577.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 147 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The net position of the main position is short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,827 - 4,887 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4816 - 4878. The main influencing factors include cost, supply, demand, and inventory. The cost is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand may remain sluggish, and the inventory is at a high level. [9][14] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The downstream overall start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening, and the production scheduling may be under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish. [7][8] - **Basis**: On September 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [11] - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene plant inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish. [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases. It is bearish. [11] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The futures prices of different contracts and varieties decreased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.88%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.87%, etc. The downstream start - up rates of different products also changed. The profile start - up rate decreased by 9.88%, the pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.39%, etc. The profit of calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.45% month - on - month, and the profit of ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.85% month - on - month. [17] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [20] - **Trend and Volume**: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract from August to September 2025. [23] - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread between different contracts (such as 1 - 9 spread, 5 - 9 spread) from 2024 to 2025. [26] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 - 2025. For example, the price of blue charcoal medium material in Shenmu, the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, etc. [29][32][34][36] - **Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method this week was 76.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and production - sales rate of PVC from 2019 - 2025. For example, the downstream average start - up rate of PVC, the start - up rate of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. [44][46] - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide plant inventory, ethylene plant inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 are shown. For example, the calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. [55] - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane in different months. [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025. For example, the production in August 2025 was 1.94 million tons, and the demand was 1.81 million tons. [60]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.02%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.0135万吨，环比增加0.57%,乙烯法企业产 量12.516万吨，环比减少8.34%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.6%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为42.6%，环比增加.95个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比持平，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the PVC fundamentals still face pressure, with high inventory levels, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about a new round of speculative expectations brought by unexpected policies [2] Summary by Directory Supply:检修计划增加有限，预计产量维持高位 - In early August, many production enterprises resumed operations after maintenance, leading to a decrease in loss volume compared to July. It is expected that maintenance in September will be high at the beginning and low at the end, and the production volume will remain at a high level with fluctuations [2][5] - The operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The 8 - month production volume increased by 60,000 tons, all from ethylene - based plants, and it is expected to remain at a high level with fluctuations subsequently [19] Demand:房地产施工将逐步回升，预计管材和型材开工增加 - In August, the downstream operating rate recovered but decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected to remain stable in September. The real estate transactions are fluctuating at a low level. Although the real estate construction will recover, it is still weak overall, providing limited support for the demand of PVC downstream pipes and profiles. With India imposing higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese PVC, exports are expected to decline [2][21][34] - In August, downstream enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, and as the September delivery approached, traders were actively trading [28] Inventory:供需压力仍在，总库存高位震荡 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the basis weakened significantly, refinery inventories flowed into the social market, leading to an increase in total inventory. The warehouse receipts also increased rapidly. In September, domestic demand is expected to recover, but exports are expected to decline, and the fundamental pressure remains high. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level with limited changes [2][44] Spread:预计基差逐步走强 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the delivery approaches, the near - month contract has a relatively large decline [54] Profit:电石法和乙烯法利润表现偏弱 - The profit performance of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weak [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4981. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - On August 28, 2025, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, showing a neutral signal [11]. - The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC output was 200.461 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 32.8255 tons, a decrease of 3.94% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 13.656 tons, a decrease of 2.04% month - on - month. The supply pressure decreased this week. It is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase slightly [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.65%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 33.61%, an increase of 0.649 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 70.77%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.53%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [7]. Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2727.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices of different varieties, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and more [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][43]. - **Demand Trend**: It analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates of different products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][49][54][57]. - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory - to - production days of enterprises [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price differences in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure. The number of maintenance projects is gradually decreasing, and the production volume is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic start - up level is at a five - year low. Regarding exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, weakening cost support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the substantial increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand. The industry pattern has deteriorated and needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, under the reality of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, there has been a significant decline after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. If there is no policy to clear devices in the medium term, the supply - demand pattern will still be weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of reducing valuation to clear production capacity [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a new high this year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound. Currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%; among them, the calcium carbide method is 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the ethylene method is 79%, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The supply - side load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the resumption of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, Yidongdongxing, and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected that the load will further recover next week. The maintenance volume in August will decrease, and with the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure will increase [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The start - up of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week. The load of pipes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the load of films was 77%, unchanged from the previous week; the load of profiles was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream load was 42.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream start - up has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. In the subsequent domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand will turn to inventory accumulation. It is necessary to observe whether there are any surprises in exports [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only multiple charts about PVC term structure, prices, basis, spreads, positions, and trading volumes from 2021 to 2025 are presented [16][18][20]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure [40]. - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of PVC in - factory, ethylene - based in - factory, calcium carbide - based in - factory, social inventory, total inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [34][37][39]. 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The price and inventory trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the calcium carbide start - up rate [47][48]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has rebounded, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have remained stable. The price trends of semi - coke, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [50][52][55]. 5. Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: The capacity expansion of PVC in 2025 is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). The raw material consumption for the new capacity is also presented [58][63]. - **Production**: The PVC start - up rate has remained stable, and the overall production volume is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the weekly production volume [66][69][72]. 6. Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded. The start - up rates of PVC pipes, films, and profiles from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [75]. - **Exports**: The anti - dumping policy of India has been extended, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the pre - sales volume [11][83][86]. - **Real Estate Impact**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, reflecting the impact of the real estate market on PVC demand [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5080 - 5156. The market situation is generally bearish, but there are also positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [7][8][9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is dominant, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the PVC output was 1.99134 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 340,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 115,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 40.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 34.55%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 76.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 314.87 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 29.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 594.54 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,739.95 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 4.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Other Factors**: On July 21, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 228 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 367,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, the calcium carbide factory inventory was 285,610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76%, the ethylene factory inventory was 81,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.41%, the social inventory was 411,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%, and the inventory days of production enterprises were 6.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29%. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production data of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as downstream开工率 and profit data [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume of the main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the cost, profit, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry and the consumption and inventory data of caustic soda [26][29][31][34][36]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production, as well as the overall PVC capacity utilization rate and production volume [38][39][40][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the demand - side data of PVC, including the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products (such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment data [43][44][46][48][50][54][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory data of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [60][61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from May 2024 to June 2025 [63][64].