Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. PX prices return to normal after the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news. With low PX inventory, the price has strong bottom support, and its future performance depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester start - up is gradually increasing [2]. - Crude oil is weakly oscillating. PTA has sufficient spot supply, and its spot average price drops while the spot basis weakens. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance can't continuously boost prices. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester start - up load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The downstream polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm for PTA spot is low, and the polyester inventory is transferred downward, but the equity inventory is expected to change little. The overall sales of downstream polyester products are dull, and there is no clear signal for the start of the demand peak season. PTA will move in an oscillating manner, with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly. The supply - side quotes of bottle - chips are mostly stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously with a light trading atmosphere. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, with sufficient market spot supply, and market demand is weakening [2]. - With the weakening of cost support, TA2601, PX2511, and PR2511 contracts all closed lower. OPEC and its production - limiting allies are expected to dominate the overnight crude oil market. As the downstream peak season has not started, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to run weakly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 3, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $605.00 per ton, up 0.75%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $687.00 per ton, up 0.37%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $843.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; the settlement price was 4,754 yuan per ton, down 0.46%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,660 yuan per ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 4,692 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $632.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,810 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,834 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX near - month contract were both 6,714 yuan per ton, with no change. The domestic PX spot price was 6,742 yuan per ton, with no change. The spot price (mid - price) of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $844.00 per ton, down 0.35%; the spot price (mid - price) of PX (FOB Korea) was $819.00 per ton, down 0.36% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,892 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 5,924 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR near - month contract were both 5,818 yuan per ton, with no change. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and polyester chips remained unchanged on September 3, 2025. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,510 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2]. Production and Sales Information - **开工率**: On September 3, 2025, the start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, with no change [1]. - **产销率**: The sales rate of polyester filament was 50.83%, up 12.80 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.19%, down 1.06 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.48%, down 15.56 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2].

成本支撑不足 原油方面，俄乌冲突有缓和可能，市场交易逻辑回归基本面。OPEC+维持9月增产54.7万桶/日，加之市 场担忧美国关税政策影响需求，短期油价延续震荡偏弱格局。中期来看，原油市场迎来季节性需求拐 点，前期的产能增量逐渐兑现，库存因炼厂利润不佳而累积，加之新能源行业的替代率提升，油价仍承 压。 PX方面，上周国内装置整体平稳运行，盛虹炼化负荷继续回升。截至8月8日当周，国内PX装置开工率 为82%，环比上升0.1个百分点；亚洲PX装置开工率为73.6%，环比上升0.2个百分点。开工负荷稳步提 升，PX供应增加。 近期，MX与PX加工费修复至122美元/吨的高位。8—9月，累计有940万吨重整装置投产，市场预期MX 供应量增加带来的PX增量在10万吨左右，PX或小幅累库。商品市场回调叠加PX基本面驱动不足，短期 PX价格震荡回调，但石脑油价格跌幅更大，上周PX与石脑油价差（PXN）回升至265美元/吨。 装置检修增多 在成本企稳、装置检修以及终端需求改善预期的推动下，短期PTA期价在4700元/吨一线获得支撑，呈 现弱势反弹走势。 综合来看，8月PTA面临低加工费下装置检修增多，以及聚酯旺季带来的供需改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil is insufficient, the supply pressure is increasing, but the expected demand peak season has a certain support for prices, with limited downside space. Short - term prices may fluctuate and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [7]. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost - side support is unstable, the supply has an incremental expectation, but the downstream demand orders have a seasonal repair expectation, which supports prices. The price downside space is limited, short - term prices may fluctuate, and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Crude oil supply and demand concerns coexist, price fluctuates, and cost support for plastic prices is insufficient [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with device restarts and no new planned maintenance, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: Overall downstream PE开工率 declines, in the off - season currently, but there is an expected rebound in the peak season, and packaging film orders increase slightly [7]. - Import and Export: Import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decrease [7]. - Inventory: Social and production enterprise inventories increase, while trader inventories decrease but remain high [7]. - Gross Profit: Oil - and coal - based profits decline [7]. - Spread: Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Crude oil price fluctuates, and PDH production cost may loosen, with insufficient cost support for PP prices [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production increase, with some restarted maintenance enterprises and new expansions concentrated at the end of the month [9]. - Demand: Downstream product 开工率 declines, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished product inventory pressure increases slightly, and plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [9]. - Import and Export: Import profit losses expand, and export profits increase slightly [9]. - Inventory: Overall PP inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Gross Profit: Oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, pay attention to relevant spread trends [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - July 21st: China's one - year loan prime rate, US June Conference Board leading index monthly rate [12]. - July 22nd: Press conference on China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in H1 2025, Fed Chairman Powell's speech [12]. - July 23rd: US API and EIA crude oil inventories, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory; NYMEX crude oil August futures contract expiration [12]. - July 24th: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate, US initial jobless claims, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash [13]. - July 25th: US June durable goods orders monthly rate [13]. - July 26th: US weekly oil rig count [13]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices of PE decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, HDPE film price is 7963 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton), LDPE film price is 9462 yuan/ton (- 66 yuan/ton), LLDPE film price is 7411 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton). LLDPE futures contract 09 closes at 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [15]. - Production: As of July 18th, PE production is 60.9 tons, up 0.32 tons from the previous period, and capacity utilization is 78.68%, down 0.01% [20]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, PE maintenance loss is 12.07 tons, down 0.75 tons. Next week, it is estimated to be 9.14 tons, down 2.93 tons, with no new planned shutdowns [25]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, overall downstream PE 开工率 is 38.51%, down 2.72%, still lower than the same period in previous years. Agricultural film 开工率 is down 0.18%, and packaging film 开工率 is up 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of July 18th, agricultural film raw material inventory is 8.3 days (- 0.02 days), PE packaging film raw material inventory is 8.07 days (+ 0.07 days), and PE pipe raw material inventory is 7.1 days. Agricultural film orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [36]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, social sample warehouse inventory is 53.66 tons (+ 1.9 tons, + 3.68%), production enterprise inventory is 52.93 tons (+ 3.62 tons), two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.9 tons (+ 2.9 tons), and trader inventory is 5.77 tons (- 0.33 tons) [42]. - Import Profit: On July 18th, import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decline [47]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil - and coal - based PE profits decline [49]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, plastic futures trading volume decreases by 16822 to 318450 lots, open interest increases by 6799 to 578812 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 9 to 5822 lots [53][55]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, the spot price range is 7101 - 7137 yuan/ton, and the PP futures contract 09 closes at 7013 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) [58]. - Production: As of July 18th, domestic polypropylene production is 77.69 tons, up 0.68 tons (+ 0.88%) from the previous week and up 12.83 tons (+ 19.78%) from the same period last year. Capacity utilization is 77.29%, up 0.68% [63]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, polypropylene device weekly loss is 21.982 tons, down 5.53%. New expansions are concentrated at the end of July [68]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, the average downstream polypropylene 开工率 is 48.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. Plastic - woven 开工率 is down 0.6% to 41.4%, BOPP 开工率 is up 0.21% to 60.77%, and injection - molded product 开工率 is up 1.04 to 51.9% [71]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: As of July 18th, plastic - woven raw material inventory is 6.94 days (- 0.12 days), BOPP raw material inventory is 8.95 days (+ 0.04 days). Plastic - woven finished product inventory is 6.32 days (+ 0.16 days), BOPP factory inventory is 11.68 days (+ 0.69 days). Plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound [74]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, China's polypropylene commercial inventory is 78.12 tons, down 1.67 tons (- 2.09%), up 9.85% year - on - year [80]. - Import and Export Profit: As of July 18th, PP import profit is - 696 yuan/ton (loss expands by 13 yuan/ton), and export profit is 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 1.5 yuan/ton) [84]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [87]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, PP futures trading volume increases by 15906 to 316654 lots, open interest increases by 27544 to 597581 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 434 to 10083 lots [92][94][96]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread. As of July 18th, plastic 09 - 01 spread is - 27 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), PP09 - 01 spread is 3 (- 12), and 09 contract L - PP spread is 203 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [99][101][105].