Market Overview - As of May 14, domestic first-grade soybean oil spot price reached 8215 CNY/ton, an increase of 79 CNY/ton (0.97%) from May 12, and up by 66 CNY/ton (0.81%) from May 13 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending May 8, net sales of soybean oil for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 14,000 tons, slightly down from 15,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 0 tons, compared to 100 tons the prior week [1] - U.S. soybean oil export shipments for the 2024/2025 marketing year totaled 51,000 tons, up from 35,000 tons the previous week [1] - Approximately 17% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of May 13, up from 15% the previous week and significantly higher than 9% the same time last year [1] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, domestic oil mills are operating at low capacity due to tight soybean oil supply, but with a significant amount of soybeans arriving at ports, inventory levels are normalizing. Oil mill operating rates are expected to rise, leading to a recovery in soybean oil stocks. However, seasonal supply pressure from South American soybeans may keep soybean prices under pressure [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean oil has experienced a significant decline, reversing previous gains due to delays in the RVO policy announcement, which has increased market volatility. The overall trend indicates a substantial demand for raw materials in the biodiesel sector, but price fluctuations may increase due to various factors including raw material prices and policy subsidies [3]

豆一盘面主力处于震荡态势中。今日黑龙江调节储备竞价销售全部成交。豆一仓单高企,仓单少量减少。农业 农村部本周部署推进粮油大面积单产提升工作。进口大豆方面加征关税进行了下调,进口大豆开机率环比回 升,5-7月份的大豆到港量也庞大。短期继续关注政策端的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 国内豆箱现货报价继续走弱,今日华北,山东,江苏部分地区已有现货跌至3000元/吨以下。下游采购积极性不 佳,成交表现一般。受中美贸易关系缓和影响,美大豆进口加征关税减至20%。5月开始国际大豆到法增多，局 部供应偏紧情况已缓解,供应趋于宽松。后续中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多,短期看空不做空,下方空 间有限,投资者注意风险,关注天气,关注长期做多机会。 【豆油&棕榈油】 美豆油出现大幅下跌,回吐了之前的涨幅,因为RVO政策延期公布,使得市场忧虑。国内豆棕油也跟随下跌。近 期美国生柴政策领期的变动加大了植物油的波动风险,总体从美国生物柴油现有的产能和未来几年扩产的产能 来看,原押需求体量大趋势是存在的,原料价格、原料类别、政策补贴、企业的利润等之间存在博弈,容易造 成价格波动增大的风险,注意控制风险。 | | | | | 操作评级 | 202 ...