A lot of market watchers are excited by the "January Barometer" or "January Indicator," which suggests that January's returns indicate the direction of stocks for the full year. The S&P 500 index was certainly up in January (although by just 1.37%). But tech investors might not want to pop the champagne just yet, because there's another historical trend we've seen in January that has dire implications for tech stocks in 2026. It may already be starting to play out. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our an ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% in December, marking its eighth consecutive winning month, the longest streak since 2018 [1] - The S&P 500 slipped about 0.06% for the month, while the Nasdaq Composite finished down about 1% [1] - The final five trading sessions of December were downbeat, with the Nasdaq losing 1.6%, the S&P 500 retreating 1.3%, and the Dow Jones falling 1.4% [2] Seasonal Trends - Historically, stocks tend to rise during the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new year, a pattern now under threat [3] S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 rallied 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025, resulting in an almost 80% gain over three years, marking the strongest return over a three-year win streak since 2019-2021 [4] - The S&P 500 has not posted four consecutive annual gains since the five-year run from 2003 to 2007 [5] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish guidance for 2026, with a cooling U.S. labor market and persistent inflation [5] - Developed-market central banks are unlikely to cut rates at the beginning of 2026 [5] Sector Highlights - Overvaluation and payoff concerns are prevalent in the artificial intelligence sector, which has driven the market over the past three years [6] Notable ETFs and Stocks - Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RKLB ETF (RKLX) rose 115.4%, with Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) gaining about 73% in December due to increased investor interest in the space economy [7] - ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) increased by 44.5%, driven by strong industrial demand and tight supply dynamics [8] - AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS) stock gained 27.7% in December, benefiting from the space investing boom [11] - Micron Technology Inc (MU) stock rose 19.2% after reporting better-than-expected fiscal results [12] - Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) shares fell 14.1% due to increased regulatory scrutiny and skepticism towards stablecoin revenue [13] Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar slumped about 4.2% in December, which is favorable for commodity prices as they are priced in U.S. dollars [10]

Market Overview - The market opened positively on the first trading day of the new year, with the Dow up by 139 points (+0.29%), S&P 500 up by 35 points (+0.51%), Nasdaq up by 235 points (+0.93%), and Russell 2000 up by 13 points (+0.53%) [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a remarkable +39% gain from April tariff lows, while the Russell 2000, S&P 500, and Dow saw gains of +33%, +32%, and +24% respectively [1] January Effect - The "January Effect" refers to strategies that lead to higher market growth at the start of the year, influenced by tax-loss harvesting, year-end bonuses reinvested into the market, and a generally positive outlook for the new year [2] Economic Challenges - Potential headwinds for the upcoming year include tariffs, employment insecurity, and rising healthcare costs, which may impact U.S. consumer spending and economic growth [3] - A possible federal government shutdown is anticipated as Congress reconvenes [3] Tariff Adjustments - Some tariffs are being rolled back for the new year, including those on furniture and Italian pasta, indicating a recognition of affordability issues both domestically and internationally [4] Upcoming Market Activity - A more normal trading volume is expected to resume with the first full trading week of 2026, and any potential "January Effect" may manifest next week [5] Employment Data - Jobs Week is approaching, with key reports including ADP private-sector payrolls and the Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following a weak month for job growth and a rising unemployment rate [6] Manufacturing Report - The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing report for December is expected to remain above the growth threshold at 51.7, although it reflects a decline from the previous reading of 51.8, marking the lowest level since mid-summer [7]

Market Overview - The first trading day of 2026 shows positive momentum with the Dow up by 139 points (+0.29%), S&P 500 up by 35 points (+0.51%), Nasdaq up by 235 points (+0.93%), and Russell 2000 up by 13 points (+0.53%) [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a remarkable +39% gain from April tariff lows in 2025, with the Russell 2000, S&P 500, and Dow also showing significant increases of +33%, +32%, and +24% respectively [2] January Effect - The "January Effect" refers to strategies that lead to higher market growth at the start of the year, influenced by tax-loss harvesting, rebalancing initiatives, and reinvestment of year-end bonuses [3] Economic Challenges - Potential headwinds for 2026 include tariffs, employment insecurity, and rising healthcare costs, which may impact U.S. consumer spending [4] - A federal government shutdown is also a possibility as Congress reconvenes [4] Tariff Adjustments - Some tariffs are being rolled back for the new year, including those on furniture and Italian pasta, indicating a recognition of affordability issues both domestically and internationally [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The first full trading week of 2026 will begin with significant economic data releases, including ADP private-sector payrolls and the Employment Situation report, following a weak month for jobs [7] - The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing report for December is expected to remain above the growth threshold at 51.7, although it reflects a decline from the previous month [8][9]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% in December, marking its eighth consecutive winning month, the longest streak since 2018 [1] - The S&P 500 slipped about 0.06% for the month, while the Nasdaq Composite finished down about 1% [1] - The final five trading sessions of December were downbeat, with the Nasdaq losing 1.3%, the S&P 500 retreating 0.9%, and the Dow Jones falling 0.7% [2] Seasonal Trends - Historically, stocks tend to rise during the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new year, a pattern now under threat [3] S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 rallied 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025, resulting in an almost 80% gain over three years, marking the strongest return over a three-year win streak since 2019-2021 [4] - The S&P 500 has not posted four consecutive annual gains since the five-year run from 2003 to 2007 [5] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish guidance for 2026, with a cooling U.S. labor market and persistent inflation [5] - The net impact of Trump tariffs remains unclear, and developed-market central banks are unlikely to cut rates at the beginning of 2026 [5] Sector Performance - Cannabis ETFs saw significant gains, with AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) up 35.6% and Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED) up 35.5% due to potential easing of federal marijuana regulations [7][8] - Silver ETFs also performed well, with abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) up 25.9% and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) up 25.8%, driven by supply tightness and industrial demand [7][9] - Platinum ETFs, such as abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT), rose 22.2% due to supply constraints and increased industrial usage [10] - Space ETFs, including Procure Space ETF (UFO), increased by 16.2%, bolstered by Rocket Lab's stock surge and positive developments in the space economy [11] - Copper Mining ETFs, like Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), rose 14.3% as copper prices hit records due to high demand and fragile supply, particularly from AI data centers [12]

Market Performance - US stocks experienced fluctuations at the opening of 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining about 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.3% and the S&P 500 dropped below the flat line after an initial rise [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a more than 20% increase, marking a strong end to a volatile year [2] Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with all Wall Street forecasters predicting a rally for a fourth consecutive year, although risks such as a potential falter in the AI boom and economic surprises remain [3] - The Federal Reserve is a key focus for 2026, with expectations that interest rates will remain steady in the near term, although there are mixed opinions regarding future meetings [5] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum prices crossed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [4] - The anticipated "Santa Claus rally" has not materialized, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1% during the last trading days of December and the first days of January [4]

Company Insights - Seammen's Energy accounts for approximately 17% of global energy generation, focusing on generators and turbines, and has shown a consistent upward trend in its stock performance over the past year without entering overbought territory [7][8] - The company has a significant backlog of orders amounting to $146 billion, indicating strong demand for its energy generation units [9] - Seammen's Energy has experienced a remarkable increase of 1600% in stock value over the past three years, contrasting with a 40% decline in crude oil prices during the same period [10][11] Industry Trends - The S&P 500 has been a central focus, with discussions around potential pullbacks and the possibility of a "Santa Claus rally" as the year ends [2][3] - The energy sector, particularly companies like Seammen's and GE Vernova, is being driven by the decreasing costs of diesel fuel, which is essential for powering energy generation units [11] - The downward trend in crude oil prices is contributing to a disinflationary environment, making it more cost-effective for energy generation companies to operate, which in turn supports the growth of data centers powering AI technologies [11][12]

Group 1 - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is set to report earnings on January 15, with the options market anticipating a 6.3% price movement in either direction for TSM stock [5] - The article discusses the potential for an options trade that assumes TSM shares will remain within the expected range following the earnings report [5] - TSM is highlighted as a leading AI chip manufacturer, earning a spot on IBD's top-rated stock lists [5][8] Group 2 - The S&P 500 has reached record highs, with notable performances from tech stocks including Nvidia and Google, which are showing buy signals [8] - The article mentions that small-cap stocks are leading a post-Fed rally, with companies like GE Vernova, Palantir, and Taiwan Semiconductor being in focus [10] - Broadcom is noted as the latest AI giant to experience a decline following earnings, indicating volatility in the tech sector [10]

Economic Overview - Consumer confidence in the United States fell to 89.1 in December, a decline of 3.8 points from November's 92.9, indicating growing concerns over jobs and income amid a weakening economy [4][10] - The Present Situation Index dropped 9.5 points to 116.8, reflecting a negative assessment of current business and labor market conditions [4] - The Expectations Index remained unchanged at 70.7, staying below the 80 mark for 11 consecutive months, which signals a potential recession [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in the current year but indicated only one rate cut for the next year due to persistent high inflation [5][6] Market Trends - A significant tech selloff has occurred, with investors offloading tech stocks due to concerns over profitability against high valuations, leading to a loss of momentum in the tech rally [6][10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on low-beta, defensive stocks from the utility and consumer staples sectors to mitigate market volatility [2][10] - Recommended stocks include: - **Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.7%, beta of 0.75, and a dividend yield of 2.38% [8][7] - **American States Water Company (AWR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 5.1%, beta of 0.70, and a dividend yield of 2.76% [12][11] - **Sempra (SRE)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 12.1%, beta of 0.73, and a dividend yield of 2.91% [13] - **Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 1.6%, beta of 0.72, and a dividend yield of 2.94% [14]

Group 1 - Meta is acquiring AI startup Mattis for $2 billion, marking its entry into the AI agent market [1][2] - The acquisition positions Meta to compete with Microsoft's co-pilot and Salesforce's Agent Force, indicating a growing urgency in the AI sector [2][8] - Meta has approximately $45 billion in cash, suggesting it has the financial capacity to pursue such acquisitions [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 has historically averaged gains of 1.3% during the holiday season, with positive returns occurring about 78% of the time [4] - There is a notable trend of cash accumulation among S&P companies, with a total of about $7 trillion in cash available [7] - The market is experiencing a rotation and profit-taking, particularly in AI-related stocks, as concerns about an AI bubble persist [27][28] Group 3 - The acquisition of Mattis is seen as a strategic move for Meta to enhance its AI capabilities, which currently lack foundational applications [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the deal reflects a broader trend of companies opting for mergers and acquisitions to expedite technology development rather than building in-house [8][9] - The startup's advanced AI capabilities, which include sophisticated functions beyond simple chatbots, are expected to significantly enhance Meta's offerings [13][14] Group 4 - Mining companies are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to rising metal prices and increased demand driven by geopolitical factors [21][23] - The U.S. has placed silver on its critical minerals list, indicating a strategic focus on securing resources amid global competition [22] - Analysts predict that the days of cheap silver are over, with significant price increases expected in the metals market [21][25]