2025年12月全球锌市为供应短缺4.19万吨，11月为供应短缺4.57万吨。由于产量增长不及需求增速， 2025年全球锌市为供应短缺3.3万吨，2024年为供应短缺6.9万吨。 ILZSG称，2025年全球精炼锌产量增长了2.1%，得益于中国的产量增长6.1%，而中国以外地区的产量下 降了1.6%。巴西、哈萨克斯坦、墨西哥和日本的产量有所下降，Toho Zinc公司旗下的Annaka冶炼厂关 闭以及韩国的Seokpo工厂暂时停产。 2025年全球矿山锌产量增长了5.4%，这得益于澳大利亚、中国、印度、伊朗、秘鲁、南非和刚果民主 共和国等地区的产量增加，其中Kipushi矿于2024年中期开始运营。 SHMET 网讯：2月24日（周二），国际铅锌研究小组(ILZSG)公布的最新月度报告。 在欧洲，矿山锌产量上升，原因是爱尔兰的Tara矿重新开工，以及俄罗斯、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那产量 增加，抵消了巴西、厄立特里亚、哈萨克斯坦和美国的下降。据ILZSG的数据，中国锌精矿的进口量增 长了29.8%，达到258万吨；而精炼锌的净进口量则减少了一半，降至21万吨。 2025年全球锌市为供应短缺3.3万吨 报告显示，20 ...

22 February 2026 | 6:57PM EST Commodities Research OIL ANALYST Raising Our Price Forecast on Lower OECD Stocks Despite Same Global Surplus; Geopolitical Risks Persist Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Filippo Cuscito +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors sh ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the price formation mechanism in the energy market is primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals, but short-term fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors [1][3] - Recent oil price trends have shown high volatility, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating between $67 and $70, experiencing a single-day drop of 2% before quickly rebounding, indicating rapid adjustments by market participants in response to information shocks [1] - The Short-Term Outlook report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a benchmark expectation for the market, with its prediction for the average crude oil price in 2026 serving as an important reference for analyzing current price levels [1][3] Group 2 - Analyzing supply and demand fundamentals requires distinguishing between short-term disturbances and long-term trends, with supply adjustments by major oil-producing countries directly impacting market balance [3] - Demand is closely linked to global economic growth expectations, particularly the industrial activity levels and transportation needs of major consuming countries, suggesting potential pressures from either relatively abundant supply or slowing demand growth [3] - Inventory data serves as a crucial window for observing supply-demand balance, with current market focus on whether seasonal inventory changes will be disrupted by abnormal factors [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks remain a potential variable in the energy market, as changes in key oil-producing regions, transportation security, and international trade relations can influence supply expectations and, consequently, prices [3] - Technically, oil prices often exhibit strong support or resistance characteristics near key round numbers, with current price levels showing a premium compared to the outlook report's annual expectations, reflecting immediate supply-demand tightness or risk premium considerations [3] - The ongoing seasonal demand changes and new capacity additions will continue to drive the price towards long-term equilibrium levels [3]

Core Insights - Beazer Homes' stock dropped 11% after a disappointing fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, with losses of $1.13 per share and sales of $363.5 million, significantly worse than analyst expectations of a $0.50 loss per share and $423.2 million in sales [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 22% decline in revenue due to a 23% decrease in home sales during the quarter [3]. - Despite the drop in unit sales, earnings did not decline as sharply, indicating that Beazer did not significantly reduce prices to move inventory [3]. Management Commentary - CEO Allan Merrill attributed the poor results to "persistent demand challenges and elevated incentives in the market" [3]. - Management aims to improve margins while maintaining prices and cutting costs, with hopes of avoiding further litigation-related charges that previously cost $0.23 per share in additional losses [4]. Market Outlook - Merrill noted that national builders' slowing starts and lower mortgage rates could help balance supply and demand in 2026, potentially boosting profits [5]. - New orders fell 18% in Q1, but this decline was less severe than the drop in home closings, suggesting some stabilization [5]. Analyst Projections - Wall Street analysts forecast a profit of $1.43 per share for the full year, representing a 25% decrease, indicating expectations of worsening conditions before improvement [6]. - Given the current price-to-earnings ratio of 15 and ongoing business decline, it may be premature to invest in Beazer stock [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Base Metals**: The base metals sector is entering 2026 with firmer fundamentals, indicating a positive outlook for prices and demand [1] - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban continues, supporting a price recovery that has doubled year-to-date. A proposed quota system may allow for regulated supply, but production is expected to remain stable due to its byproduct nature from copper mining [2] - **Aluminium**: China's production ceiling is expected to limit domestic supply growth to +0.5% year-on-year in 2026, while overseas supply additions are modest at +3% year-on-year. Demand growth is driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and grid investments, leading to a projected market deficit in 2026 and a widening deficit in 2027 [3] - **Copper**: China's top copper smelters have agreed to cut capacity by 10% in 2026 to address overcapacity and negative processing fees. Treatment and refining charges turned negative in 2025 due to tight supply [4] - **Iron Ore**: The Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea shipped its first consignment of 200,000 tons to China, which may reduce China's reliance on Australian and Brazilian imports and potentially weigh on prices [5] Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Materials**: Aluminium is favored due to low inventories and a production cap. Gold is also recommended amid the current macroeconomic backdrop. The long-term outlook for construction materials is positive, contingent on supply-side reforms and earnings improvements [6][9] Price Trends and Estimates - **Commodity Prices**: Base metal prices remain strong due to robust demand and tight supply. Recent price changes include: - **Copper**: Shanghai Copper Spot at USD 12,561, up 3% over 5 days, and LME Copper Spot at USD 11,214, up 4% [10] - **Aluminium**: Shanghai Aluminium Spot at USD 3,070, up 1% over 5 days, and LME Aluminium Spot at USD 2,835, up 2% [10] - **Cobalt**: Shanghai Cobalt Spot at CNY 58,689, up 3% over 5 days [10] - **Gold**: Gold Spot at USD 4,217, up 1% over 5 days [10] Future Price Estimates - **Aluminium**: Expected prices are USD 2,750/t in 2026 and USD 2,850/t in 2027 [3] - **Copper**: Projected prices are USD 4.50/lb in 2025 and USD 5.02/lb in 2026 [11] - **Cobalt**: Estimated to rise to USD 17.69/lb in 2026 [11] - **Gold**: Expected to reach USD 4,600/oz in 2027 [11] Analyst Coverage - Analysts from HSBC covering the metals and mining sector include Howard Lau, Jonathan Brandt, Shilan Modi, and others, providing insights into various commodities and market dynamics [7][8] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the base metals sector is optimistic, with expected price increases and strategic shifts in supply dynamics. Investment in aluminium and gold is recommended, while monitoring the impacts of regulatory changes in cobalt and iron ore supply is crucial for future strategies [6][9]

Summary of Key Points from the Aluminium Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminium Sector in China - **Outlook for 2026**: The market is expected to experience tightening supply against resilient demand, with aluminium prices projected to rise by 6% year-on-year, indicating a constructive outlook for prices and profitability [1][19][10]. Core Insights - **Supply Dynamics**: - China's production ceiling limits domestic supply growth to approximately 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, while overseas supply is expected to grow by 3% [2][52]. - The aluminium market is moving towards a tighter balance due to constrained supply and modest overseas additions, with a significant reliance on secondary aluminium and imports to meet domestic demand [13][14][52]. - Unplanned disruptions, such as reduced output at Century Aluminium's Iceland smelter and potential power supply instability at South32's Mozal smelter, contribute to supply tightness [2][64]. - **Demand Drivers**: - Demand growth in China is anchored by the electric vehicle (EV) sector and grid investment, with EV demand expected to grow by approximately 20% in 2026 [3][33]. - Grid investment, particularly in ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines, is anticipated to provide a steady source of demand for aluminium [34]. - Despite a decline in solar installation intensity, the segment still contributes significantly to overall demand [3]. Financial Performance and Recommendations - **Company Ratings**: - Buy ratings maintained for China Hongqiao and Chalco, with target prices raised to HKD37.40 and HKD12.30 respectively [4][10]. - China Hongqiao offers an attractive valuation with a dividend yield of approximately 7% [4]. Price and Margin Expectations - **Price Projections**: - SHFE aluminium prices are expected to reach RMB22,000 per ton in 2026, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year increase, while LME prices are projected at USD2,750 per ton [15][19]. - The margin environment is expected to improve due to lower raw material costs, with stable power tariffs and adequate supply of bauxite, alumina, and carbon anodes [22][29]. Additional Insights - **Structural Changes**: - The aluminium market is characterized by structural supply constraints rather than cyclical fluctuations, with China's capacity capped at 45 million tons [2][52]. - The global primary aluminium demand is projected to rise by 1.8% in 2026, while supply growth is limited to 1.6% [13]. - **Inventory Levels**: - Low inventories in both China and the global market indicate minimal buffer against supply disruptions, reinforcing the potential for price increases [14][19]. - **Long-term Trends**: - The shift towards electrification and the gradual substitution of copper with aluminium in various applications are expected to support long-term demand growth [33][35]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the aluminium sector, highlighting the interplay between supply constraints, demand drivers, and financial performance expectations.

Core Insights - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a weak and stable trend, with slight increases in transaction activity and a stable pricing environment due to supply-side production cuts and supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing Trends - The transaction price range for n-type reprocessed material is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The overall polysilicon market is still in a state of oversupply despite the supply contraction, with high industry inventory and weak end-user demand limiting price increases [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon producers, with two major companies expected to reduce production and undergo maintenance, leading to a significant estimated decrease in total output by 12.4% month-on-month [2]. - The production plan for domestic polysilicon in November is expected to drop below 120,000 tons, primarily due to rising electricity costs during the dry season in the southwestern region [1]. Group 3: Policy Developments - The new national standard for energy consumption limits for polysilicon and germanium products is in the consultation phase, which is expected to promote capacity clearance and industry upgrades once officially implemented [1].

Investment Rating - The report provides a bullish outlook on the oil market, indicating a modestly bullish positioning on oil [17]. Core Insights - The global oil market is expected to experience a surplus in 2025 and 2026, with quarterly global oil supply and demand balances projected [25]. - Global oil demand is anticipated to grow by 0.7 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with total demand reaching approximately 106.2 Mb/d by 2030 [34][37]. - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual increase to $75.00 by 2028 [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - The UBS forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $74.97 in 1Q25, declining to $62.00 in 3Q25 and 4Q25, before recovering to $65.99 in 2025 [3]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil supply is projected to grow by 1.4 Mb/d in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from non-OPEC+ countries [50][53]. - The total global oil demand is expected to reach 103.9 Mb/d in 2025, with the US contributing 20.5 Mb/d [129]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Persian Gulf, on oil supply and pricing, with a risk premium expected to remain elevated due to potential disruptions [11][5]. OPEC+ Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to gradually unwind production cuts, with a cumulative increase of 2.2 Mb/d planned, affecting global supply dynamics [64][66]. Inventory Trends - Global observed oil inventories rose by 25 million barrels in March, indicating a build-up in supply [104]. Capex and Project Developments - Global upstream capital expenditure is expected to increase by 2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing investments in oil and gas projects [121]. Regional Demand Insights - The report notes that US gasoline demand is projected to align with 2024 levels in 2Q25, indicating stable consumption patterns [43]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term oil price forecast suggests a gradual increase in prices, with a breakeven price for various regions and types of oil production outlined [124].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an iron ore price forecast of $100/t for 2025, indicating a stable outlook amidst global economic challenges [1][5][14]. Core Insights - Global steel output has started the year relatively flat, with a decrease of 0.4% in Q1 2025, driven by a 1.7% decline in the Rest of the World (RoW) while China saw a slight increase of 0.6% [1][4][11]. - The forecast for global steel production in 2025 has been revised down from a growth of 20 million tons (Mt) to a decline of 5 Mt, primarily due to reduced expectations for RoW production [1][4][14]. - Iron ore supply has faced disruptions due to severe weather conditions in Australia, leading to a reduction of 10 Mt in Australian supply forecasts for 2025 [1][4][28]. - Despite these challenges, iron ore prices have shown resilience, remaining near $100/t, with only slight fluctuations following tariff announcements [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Production - Global steel output is down 0.4% year-to-date (YTD) in Q1 2025, with China showing a positive trend in April [4][19]. - The report anticipates a contraction in crude steel production in China by 1.5% in 2025, with a total output forecast of 990 Mt [7][8][14]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore supply disruptions in Q1 2025 have led to a significant decrease in Australian production forecasts, with China’s port stocks adjusting to meet demand [1][4][11]. - The report highlights a balanced supply-demand scenario, with iron ore prices expected to remain stable at $100/t due to cost curve support and an unchanged outlook for China [1][5][28]. Price Forecasts - The price forecast for iron ore remains unchanged at $100/t for 2025, reflecting a stable market despite external economic pressures [5][14][28]. - The report notes that the medium-term outlook may see a loosening of supply-demand dynamics as new projects come online, particularly from Simandou starting in Q2 2026 [5][28].