Core Insights - The report indicates a challenging environment for perpetual bonds in the banking sector, with both supply and demand expected to remain weak in 2026 [2][3] - The net supply of perpetual bonds is projected to stabilize at a low level, with significant contributions from TLAC bonds [2][3] - Demand for bank perpetual bonds is facing challenges due to regulatory changes and market conditions, impacting their attractiveness [2][3] Supply - The net supply of perpetual bonds has decreased significantly, with 2025's issuance at 1.38 trillion yuan, down from previous years, and net financing dropping to 363 billion yuan [8][12] - The supply is expected to remain low in 2026, with net financing projected to be around 400-500 billion yuan, characterized by a decline in large banks' issuance and an increase from smaller banks [2][3] - TLAC bonds are anticipated to provide some relief to the supply side, with a projected net supply of around 300 billion yuan in 2026 [2][3] Demand - Bank perpetual bonds continue to be a crucial component of the credit bond market, but demand is weakening due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][3] - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance companies may reduce their investment capacity in perpetual bonds, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [2][3] - The demand from banks for self-managed investments is likely to stabilize, while mutual funds may face challenges due to new fee regulations, impacting their allocation to perpetual bonds [2][3] Valuation - The report highlights the potential for a shift in the relative valuation of perpetual bonds due to weak supply and demand dynamics [3][3] - Credit spreads for perpetual bonds may face upward pressure if participation from funds and insurance companies diminishes, with projected spreads for 3-year AAA-rated bonds in the range of 25-60 basis points [3][3] - The valuation of different bond types is expected to diverge, with higher-grade bonds potentially facing upward pressure on spreads [3][3] Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach to trading opportunities in high-grade bank perpetual bonds, with a focus on price differences between new and existing bonds [3][3] - For mid-sized banks' perpetual bonds, it is recommended to actively monitor value propositions while being cautious of non-redemption risks [3][3] - TLAC bonds are noted for their dual value in both allocation and trading, with a particular emphasis on floating rate bonds [3][3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks redeeming perpetual bonds and subordinated debt is driven by the need to optimize capital structure, reduce financing costs, and comply with regulatory requirements during a declining interest rate environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Redemption Activities - Multiple banks, including China Construction Bank, CITIC Bank, and Ningbo Bank, have announced full redemptions of their 2020-issued perpetual bonds, with amounts ranging from tens of billions to hundreds of billions [1][3]. - As of September 21, 2023, the total redemption scale of bank perpetual bonds has reached 729.28 billion yuan this year, with a year-on-year increase of over 180% compared to last year's total of 1.11 trillion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Drivers Behind Redemption - The primary drivers for the redemption of old bonds include the current macroeconomic environment of declining interest rates, allowing banks to replace high-cost debt with lower-cost alternatives [4][6]. - Regulatory requirements, particularly for globally systemically important banks, necessitate maintaining a total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) risk-weighted ratio of no less than 16%, prompting banks to optimize their capital structure through debt replacement [4][7]. Group 3: Capital Structure Optimization - New subordinated debt has a higher proportion counted towards capital, which can quickly enhance banks' Tier 2 capital and improve key regulatory indicators like capital adequacy ratios [6][7]. - The efficiency of old subordinated debt diminishes after five years, leading banks to redeem these bonds to maintain adequate capital buffers and comply with new regulatory standards [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As more existing capital instruments approach their redemption windows, the pace of replacing perpetual bonds is expected to accelerate, driven by stricter counter-cyclical capital regulations [7]. - If the macroeconomic interest rate trend remains downward, banks will likely continue to benefit from cost advantages in issuing new bonds, further incentivizing the redemption of old debt [7].