普信债久期明显缩短： 截至 12 月 31 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 1.58 年、2.19 年，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债 以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.01 年、3.31 年、1.73 年，其中一般商金债处于较低历史水平，二级资本 债处于较高历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.41 年、 1.43 年、3.06 年、1.35 年，久期较上周均有缩短，证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位。 品种显微镜： 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 1.65 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期拉长至 4.88 年，河北省级城投债 成交久期缩短至 0.61 年附近。同时，福建区县级、甘肃省级城投债久期历史分位数已逾 90%，甘肃省级城投债久期逼 近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短，总体处于 1.84 年附近，基础化工行业成交久期拉长至 2.33 年， 食品饮料行业成交久期缩短至 0.80 年。此外，房地产行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，医药生物行业位于较高历史 分位。 商业银行债：一般商金债久期 ...

证券时报记者谢忠翔 低利率环境下，上市银行赎回存量"高息"优先股以节省付息成本的动力愈发增强。近日，长沙银行公告 称，将于12月25日赎回60亿元优先股"长银优1"，并终止挂牌。 证券时报记者注意到，12月以来，包括长沙银行在内，已有北京银行、上海银行、杭州银行和南京银行 等5家银行先后宣布对旗下优先股进行赎回，合计规模达458亿元。若加上此前的工商银行、中国银行、 兴业银行和宁波银行，2025年以来赎回优先股的银行数量已增加至9家。 多位研究人士表示，优先股作为银行资本工具，自2020年以后银行对其新发已几乎停滞。同时，伴随着 存量银行优先股的加速赎回并退市，存量规模愈发减少。近年来，商业银行为优化资本结构，赎回优先 股的意愿更是不断强化。在资管机构看来，银行优先股的配置稀缺性也进一步凸显。 9家银行年内赎回超1000亿 12月19日，长沙银行公告显示，该行于2019年12月非公开发行的60亿元优先股"长银优1"，将于2025年 12月25日派发优先股息后全部赎回，并终止挂牌。 据证券时报记者统计，今年以来已有2家国有大行、1家股份行和6家城商行对优先股进行赎回，包括境 内优先股7期共1118亿元、2期境外 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 信用利差多数走阔，优先布局中短端票息资产 ——信用周报 20251221 （1）1y 品种：当前收益率主要分布在 1.72%-1.80%区间，利差在 2024 年以来 中枢水平以下 13-19BP，本周利差小幅回升，但性价比仍相对较低。 （2）2-3y 品种：收益率主要分布在 1.83%-2.10%区间，利差在 19-42BP 区间， 考虑增值税新规对国开债曲线影响后（按 3%税率估算，影响约 5BP），2-3y 信 用品种利差在 2024 年以来中枢水平附近。考虑到后续基金和理财对短端品种 的配置需求较高，可优选底仓品种，优先布局明年中短端票息资产。 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.35%区间，利差在 26-55BP 区间。 本周 4-5y 品种利差走阔，尤其低等级品种，主要受地产债及周期债调整影响， 票息配置性价比边际回升。在 3y 以内短端极致拥挤的情况下，基金和理财或 拉长久期至 4-5y 品种博取收益，但需求力量较今年或整体有所减弱、波动性 或增强。从季节性看，12 月信用利差压缩动能通常有限，一季度非银配置力 量逐渐增强、债市利空因素边际 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that since 2025, there has been an accelerated redemption of bank preferred shares, with several banks announcing their plans to redeem these shares, leading to a shrinking market for preferred stocks, particularly in the banking sector [1][4][7] - As of December 18, 2023, a total of 55 preferred shares have been issued, raising a total of 906.55 billion yuan, with bank preferred shares accounting for 35 of these, totaling 839.15 billion yuan [1][4] - The redemption trend is primarily driven by banks seeking to optimize financing costs, with significant redemptions occurring this year compared to only two last year [4][7] Group 2 - The preferred shares are a major component of bank wealth management products, with over 90% of equity investments in these products being allocated to preferred shares [2][10] - Due to the shrinking market for preferred shares, wealth management products are now looking for alternative investment options, as the supply of preferred shares diminishes [3][10] - The issuance of perpetual bonds has surged, with 69 perpetual bonds issued this year, totaling 821.8 billion yuan, indicating a shift in capital-raising strategies among banks [8][12] Group 3 - The redemption of preferred shares must comply with capital adequacy requirements, necessitating prior approval from regulatory authorities to ensure banks maintain sufficient capital levels [8] - The fixed and floating interest rates of preferred shares are subject to adjustments, with some banks reducing their dividend rates in response to changing market conditions [7] - The overall market for equity assets in bank wealth management has been declining, with the proportion of equity assets dropping from 4.8% in 2020 to around 2% by the end of 2023 [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of capital changes by state-owned banks, including the recent increase in registered capital by Bank of Communications, reflects a broader trend of capital replenishment among major state-owned banks in China, driven by regulatory support and market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Capital Changes - Bank of Communications has increased its registered capital by 14.101 billion RMB, changing from 74.263 billion RMB to 88.364 billion RMB following a specific issuance of A-shares [1] - This capital increase follows similar actions by other state-owned banks, including Bank of China and China Construction Bank, which also raised capital through targeted A-share issuances [1] Group 2: Capital Replenishment Trends - In 2023, major state-owned banks are actively replenishing capital, with a total planned fundraising of 520 billion RMB through targeted A-share issuances, as outlined in the government work report proposing the issuance of special government bonds [1][2] - The capital replenishment strategies of state-owned banks are characterized by a diversified approach, utilizing both internal profit retention and external financing methods such as targeted issuance and IPOs [2] Group 3: Importance of Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy of systemically important banks (D-SIBs) is crucial for maintaining financial stability, with sufficient capital serving as a core defense against risks associated with being "too big to fail" [3] - The proactive capital replenishment by state-owned banks sends a positive signal to the market regarding prudent management and risk control, which helps stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence [3]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关注中短端品种结构性机会 ——信用周报20251214 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.5%区间，利差在 22-60BP 区间。 近期债市波动放大，利空因素扰动下 4-5y 品种信用利差有所走阔，票息配置 性价比边际回升。近期可适当关注波动市场中利差较高品种的结构性机会，逢 高配置票息资产，其中 3-4yAA+银行二永债与保险次级利差较高可优先关注。 （4）5y 以上品种：中高等级品种收益率主要分布在 2.25%-2.8%区间，利差在 25-60BP 区间。仍具备一定票息优势，但考验负债端稳定性，需凭借负债端稳 定性获取票息的时间价值，交易参与需因时而动。在当前债市扰动因素较多、 情绪偏弱的情况下，负债端稳定性偏弱的机构需谨慎，保险、自营等负债端稳 定性较强机构可重点关注，逢高配置。 ❖ 重点政策及热点事件： 1、中国冶金科工股份有限公司将多家子公司股权出售给五矿地产与中国五 矿。中国中冶此次打包售卖地产与矿山资产既能够补充资金反哺主业，也剥离 业绩承压的非主营业务，有利于估值修复。 2、渤海租赁股份有限公司拟召开持有人会议，审议豁免监票人 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The duration of secondary capital bonds has been continuously rising, while the durations of other credit bonds have generally shortened. As of December 5, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.90 years and 2.27 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.31 years, 3.78 years, and 1.94 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, and secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 1.83 years, 3.33 years, and 1.19 years respectively. The duration of securities subordinated bonds has significantly shortened compared to last week, and the durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at relatively low historical levels [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index has slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index declined. This week, it increased compared to last week and is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading duration hovered around 1.90 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthened to 5.50 years, and the trading duration of Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.22 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Henan prefecture - level cities, and Hunan province have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to last week and was generally around 2.27 years. The trading duration of the transportation industry lengthened to 2.02 years, and the trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.55 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical level, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries were at relatively high historical levels [3][21]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.94 years, at the 35.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.31 years, at the 95.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.78 years, at the 67.7% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 71.4%, 22%, 31.8%, and 61.2% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened compared to last week [3][26]. 2. Variety Microscope - Coupon duration crowding index: After reaching its peak in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index decreased and then increased slightly this week. It is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. - Regional analysis of urban investment bonds: The report provides the durations and historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in different provinces and administrative levels, such as the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthening to 5.50 years and Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortening to 1.22 years [15][20]. - Industry analysis of industrial bonds: Different industries within industrial bonds showed different duration changes. For example, the transportation industry's duration lengthened, and the food and beverage industry's duration shortened [21].

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trading activity of bank perpetual bonds (二永债) has increased significantly in 2025, with daily transaction volumes and the proportion of these bonds in the overall credit bond market rising from 31% in 2024 to 39% in 2025 [1][21] - Major non-bank institutions, including funds, wealth management, insurance, and other asset management products, have increased their allocation to perpetual bonds, with net purchases reaching 325.8 billion, 386.5 billion, 43.2 billion, and 433.8 billion yuan respectively [1][21] - The demand for perpetual bonds may face pressure in 2026 due to structural impacts, particularly from new fund sales fee regulations that could lead to redemption pressures on short and medium-term bond funds [2][28] Group 2 - The net supply of perpetual bonds is expected to remain low, with state-owned banks showing stable issuance while smaller banks may continue to increase supply due to declining capital adequacy ratios [3][9] - The trading characteristics of perpetual bonds in 2025 show a "top and bottom" pattern in yield spreads, with slight downward adjustments in the 3-year and 5-year spreads, while the 10-year spreads have increased [4][11] - The trading environment for perpetual bonds has become more challenging, requiring institutions to engage in more frequent trading to enhance returns, especially as the yield spreads have narrowed [5][12] Group 3 - The performance of perpetual bonds has been differentiated, with short-term and low-grade bonds performing strongly while long-term bonds have lagged behind [16][17] - The insurance sector has shown a weaker demand for perpetual bonds in recent years, influenced by declining yields and the introduction of new accounting standards that affect the valuation of these bonds [37][38] - The overall market sentiment and trading dynamics for perpetual bonds are expected to be influenced by regulatory changes and market conditions, with potential opportunities arising from adjustments in fund management practices [28][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, the investment strategy for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should focus on trading, with limited value in credit quality downgrading. The demand side of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may face pressure, mainly with structural impacts, while the net supply is likely to remain at a low level, and small and medium - sized banks may continue to increase issuance. The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit, but trading difficulties have increased, and short - term downgrading of these bonds may not yield significant excess returns [2][7][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025, Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: Primary Market Contraction and Secondary Market Differentiation - **Net financing contraction**: In 2025, the net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased year - on - year. The total issuance was 1.58 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 432.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 86.4 billion yuan. The decrease was mainly due to the reduced supply from joint - stock and small and medium - sized banks [12]. - **Differentiated performance**: The yield of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed an "M" - shaped oscillatory trend in 2025. Short - term and low - grade bonds performed strongly, with significant narrowing of credit spreads, while long - term bonds underperformed [31]. 3.2 2025, Changes in Institutional Behavior - **More active trading**: In 2025, the trading of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds became more active. The average daily trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous year, and the proportion of trading volume in all credit bonds rose from 31% in 2024 to 39% [1]. - **Increased allocation by major non - bank institutions**: In 2025, funds, wealth management products, insurance, and other asset management products all net - bought other types of bonds (mainly bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds) in the secondary market. Among them, funds, wealth management products, and insurance increased their allocation efforts year - on - year [39]. 3.3 2026, Outlook on the Supply and Demand of Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - **Demand side pressure with structural impacts**: Under the new regulations on fund sales fees, short - term and medium - short - term bond funds may face redemption pressure, leading to selling pressure on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. Wealth management products are undergoing rectification of net - value smoothing methods, reducing their positions in these bonds. The full implementation of the new insurance I9 accounting standard in 2026 may suppress the demand for long - term bonds [2][3]. - **Low net supply, potential increase from small and medium - sized banks**: From 2024 - 2025, the net financing of state - owned banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was significantly reduced and may remain low in the future. Although the capital adequacy ratios of joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks are above the regulatory requirements, they have shown a downward trend this year. If interest rates remain low next year, small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance [63]. 3.4 2026, Focus on Trading, Limited Value in Downgrading - **Credit spread characteristics**: The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit. In 2025, the credit spread of 3 - year bonds had a slightly lower central value and a compressed fluctuation range; the central values of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds increased, with the 5 - year bond's fluctuation range narrowing and the 10 - year bond's upper and lower limits rising [68][69][73]. - **Trading difficulties**: The yield of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been oscillating in a narrow range at a low level, and the "amplification of interest rate fluctuations" attribute has weakened year - on - year, increasing trading difficulties. In 2026, more precise timing is needed to enhance returns [81][84]. - **Low downgrading value**: The credit risk of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is controllable, but the cost - effectiveness of short - term and low - grade bonds has decreased significantly. In the future, short - term downgrading may not yield significant excess returns [92][95].