证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 信用债哑铃策略 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 8月 11-15日，股市走强压制债市表现，普信债收益率全线上行，但信 用利差大多被动收窄。银行资本债表现弱于普信债，收益率上行 2- 10bp，信用利差大多走扩，与同期城投债相比，4-5Y大行资本债收益 率多上行 5-8bp。 目前信用债收益率、利差均处于历史低位，叠加债市不确定性较多、 波动加大，机构整体偏谨慎，尤其是对长久期信用债。一方面，7 月 中下旬以来基金对长久期信用债的需求偏弱，最近三周合计净卖出 47 亿元 5-10 年信用债。另一方面，5 年以上信用债二级成交占比也明显 下降，其中 5 年以上信用债成交占比从 7 月中旬 15.4%的偏高位置持 续降至 5.9%，而 1 年以内成交占比由 29.4%升至 36%。 在此背景下，信用债哑铃策略或占优，即同时持有票息较高、低波动 的防守型品种，以及流动性好的高波动博弈型品种。其中，防守型品 种首选 1-3 年中低等级城投债，由于票息较高，在债 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 8 月 17 日 关注短端防御性 ——信用债策略周报 一、信用债收益率普遍上行，金融债利差走阔幅度大于非金信用债 上周信用债收益率跟随利率债普遍上行，信用利差表现分化，中长久期金融债 利差整体走阔，而长久期非金信用债利差大多收窄。5 年期和 7 年期各评级中短 票利差均有所收窄，其中低评级利差收窄幅度较大，全周累计收窄 4-8bp。分品 种来看，3 年期各类金融债利差走阔幅度明显大于非金信用债：1）城投债：上 周城投债信用利差表现分化，3 年期和 7 年期利差走阔 1bp 左右。5 年期各评级 城投债利差全周累计收窄 3-5bp；2）金融债：上周二永债信用利差大多走阔， 其中 3 年期各评级二永债信用利差走阔幅度较大，全周累计走阔幅度为 3-4bp。 此外 3 年期券商次级债和保险次级债利差走阔幅度同样较大，为 4-5bp。 二、信用债二级成交情况：整体换手率有所回落，各品种 TKN 占比大多下降 上周信用债整体换手率从前周的 1.99%降至 1.93%（跌幅 0.06 个百分点），反 映市场交投活跃度有所走弱。与过去三年相比，2025 年换手率处于中等水平， 近 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in market sentiment, with the stock market showing strength while the bond market faces pressure, leading to a rapid change in risk appetite [3][13][14] - The yield on the 10-year government bond has risen to 1.75%, while the 30-year bond approaches 2%, indicating a challenging environment for long-duration bonds [3][13] - The report notes that the recent decline in bond prices is characterized by a "local" feature, particularly affecting long-term credit bonds, while short-term credit bonds have shown relative stability [5][48] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of various bond strategies, indicating that the 30-year government bond strategy has faced the most significant drawdown, with a loss of 192 basis points in the past week [4][21] - Credit strategies have also experienced substantial drawdowns, particularly in bank subordinated bonds and long-duration portfolios [4][21] - Short-term bond strategies have managed to retain some gains from earlier in the year, with certain portfolios even showing positive returns recently [4][21] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current bond market environment is marked by a lack of liquidity, particularly in long-term credit bonds, which have seen a sharp decline in trading volume [6][48] - Despite the challenges, the pricing of medium to short-duration credit bonds remains stable, with limited upward movement in yields compared to the adjustments seen at the end of July [6][17] - The report suggests that the stability of the non-bank funding side has contributed to the resilience of short-duration credit bonds [6][70] Group 4 - The report outlines short-term strategies, recommending a cautious approach due to overall low absolute returns [7][71] - It suggests focusing on price spread trading opportunities in bank subordinated bonds and emphasizes the potential for acquiring high-quality city investment bonds with AA+ ratings [7][71] - The report also notes that new credit bond pricing is susceptible to market fluctuations, indicating a need for careful monitoring of market conditions [7][71]

截至 8 月 17 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.13 年、2.63 年，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以 及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.59 年、3.72 年、4.05 年，其中银行永续债处于较低历史水平；从其余金融 债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.53 年、2.13 年、3.22 年、1.20 年，其中 证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.13 年附近。其中，四川省级城投债久期拉长 5.36 年，广东区县级城投债 成交久期缩短至 1.50 年附近。同时，四川省级、江苏区县级、重庆区县级、福建区县级等区域城投债久期历史分位 数已逾 90%，河南地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所拉长，总体处于 2.63 年附近，医药生物行业成交久期缩短至 1.05 年， 建筑材料行业成交久期拉长至 2.49 年。此外，食品材料行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，公用事业、建筑材料等行 业均位于 90%以上的历史分位。 商业银行债：一般商金债久期拉长至 4.05 年，处 ...

Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of August 1, the secondary capital bond heavy strategy has rapidly recovered, with the weekly average yield of the credit style secondary bond heavy portfolio rising nearly 87 basis points, reaching the highest absolute return since April [2][12] - The secondary bond heavy and long-term industrial strategies showed significant recovery compared to other portfolios, with weekly returns of 0.31% and 0.51%, respectively, compensating for over 65% of the losses from the previous week [2][12] - Financial bond duration strategies generally outperformed, with secondary bonds, perpetual bonds, and brokerage bond duration portfolios beating the mid-to-long-term benchmark by approximately 9.2 basis points, 8.7 basis points, and 10.4 basis points, respectively [2][12] Duration Tracking of Varieties - The transaction duration of secondary capital bonds has risen to 4.8 years as of August 3, with urban investment bonds and industrial bonds weighted at 2.24 years and 3.03 years, respectively, both at over 90% historical percentile levels since March 2021 [3][14] - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years, respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level [3][14] - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, subordinated securities bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years, respectively, with securities company bonds and subordinated securities bonds at low historical percentiles [3][14] Yield Heat Map of Coupon Assets - As of August 4, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally declined, with yields for 1-year and 2-3 year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds down by 5.8 basis points and 6.7 basis points, respectively [4][19] - Real estate bonds also saw a decline in yields, with the yield drop for 3-year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds exceeding 6 basis points [4][19] - In the financial bond sector, bank subordinated bonds are favored, particularly in the short end, with yields for 1-year shares and 1-2 year city commercial bank secondary capital bonds down by 11.5 basis points and 8.8 basis points, respectively [4][19] Long-term Credit Bond Insights - The issuance scale of long-term credit new bonds totaled 13.42 billion, with supply returning to a low level, possibly due to rising issuance costs, as long-term bond issuers await favorable issuance windows [5][21] - Correspondingly, the average issuance rate of long-term credit new bonds continued to rise, with the issuance rate of long-term urban investment bonds reaching over the 50th percentile for the first time in 24 years [5][21] Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - The average issuance rate of local bonds has marginally increased, with the yield spreads for 30-year, 20-year, and 10-year local bonds widening to 14 basis points, 12 basis points, and 11 basis points, respectively, compared to the same-term government bonds [6][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Increase allocation of 2 - 3 - year AA - grade strong - qualification urban investment bonds, and 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds have riding opportunities [1][9] - The credit bond market this week shows the characteristics of "short - end adjustment and long - end pressure", and it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupons, pay attention to the regional differentiation of urban investment bonds and the liquidity premium opportunities of secondary and perpetual bonds, and be vigilant against the phased disturbance of the bond market by the recovery of the equity market [9] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will resume the collection of value - added tax, while existing bonds remain tax - free. This adjustment aims to enhance the benchmark function of the treasury bond yield curve in the medium and long term and support fiscal sustainability [4] - On July 30, 2025, the Politburo meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds [5] Credit Bond Market Conditions Primary Issuance - From July 28 to August 1, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance scale of industrial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 178.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.2 billion yuan; the net financing was 54.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 73.6 billion yuan [6] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds this week was 4.11 years, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 pct [6] Secondary Trading - The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with significant declines in the turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 5 - 7 years [6] - The turnover rate of bank secondary and perpetual bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rates of AAA - and AA + grades decreased significantly, while the turnover rate of AA grade increased [6] Spread Tracking - As of August 1, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [7] - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of all ratings for the 1 - year term narrowed, those for the 3 - year term widened, and for the 5 - year term, except for a slight narrowing of 1.71BP for the AA variety, others widened. The spreads of the AA - grade for the 3Y and 5Y terms widened the most, by 5 - 6BP [7] - The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds at all terms and grades narrowed this week. The 3Y, AAA - variety narrowed the most, by 4.28BP; the 1Y, AA - and AA varieties narrowed the least, by 1.98bp; the average narrowing amplitude of the spreads of the 5Y varieties was the largest, by 3.19BP [7] - In terms of regions, the spreads of urban investment bonds in 14 provinces widened slightly this week, with Liaoning and Qinghai having the largest widening amplitudes of 7 - 8BP [7] - For industrial bonds, the spreads of most industries widened slightly this week. The spread of AA + - grade industrial bonds in the construction and decoration industry widened the most, by 4.8bp [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints As of August 3, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.24 years and 3.03 years respectively, both at over 90% of the quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years respectively. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years respectively [2][10]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 All - Variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.24 years and 3.03 years respectively, at over 90% of the quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds had weighted average trading terms of 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years respectively. For other financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds had durations of 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it dropped and this week increased slightly compared to last week, currently at 32.1% of the level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.24 years. Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds' duration extended to nearly 9.5 years, while Guangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 1.51 years. The duration quantiles of urban investment bonds in regions such as prefecture - level and district - level Jiangsu, district - level Chongqing, provincial and prefecture - level Hunan, and prefecture - level Henan exceeded 90%, with Hunan provincial urban investment bonds' duration approaching the highest since 2021 [3][16]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The weighted average trading term shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 3.03 years. The trading duration of the food materials industry shortened to 1.26 years, while that of the public utilities industry extended to 4.03 years. The food materials industry's trading duration was at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, building materials, and pharmaceutical biology were all at over 90% of the historical quantiles [3][22]. - **Commercial Bank Bonds**: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.91 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.79 years, at the 99.5% historical quantile, higher than last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 4.02 years, at the 78.4% historical quantile, higher than last year [3][25]. - **Other Financial Bonds**: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 53.6%, 61.6%, 67.8%, and 95.5% of the historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, leasing company bonds, and securities sub - bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In Q2 2025, the number of newly - issued bond funds increased slightly, and the fundraising scale climbed marginally, but it was still lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the shift in risk preference diverting incremental funds from the bond market. In terms of holding behavior, the total scale of public funds' holdings of coupon - bearing assets remained stable, but there were structural differentiations. In Q2, funds mainly increased their holdings of bank sub - debt and industrial bonds, especially the scale of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years increased sharply, and continued to reduce their holdings of general commercial financial bonds [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview of Incremental Funds: Improved New - Issue Performance and Restored Bond Fund Scale - In Q2 2025, 77 new bond - type funds were issued, with a fundraising scale of 97.4 billion yuan, showing improvement compared to Q1 but still a significant gap compared to the same period last year (113 bond funds were issued, raising 289.7 billion yuan) [2][11]. - The shift in risk preference diverted incremental funds from the bond market. In Q2, the equity market continued the main lines of technology - growth and low - volatility dividend. The quarterly increase of general stock - type funds exceeded 3%, 2 percentage points higher than that of bond - type funds. At the end of Q2, the outstanding share of bond - type funds was 9.6 trillion shares, an increase of 0.57 trillion shares compared to Q1 but lower than the same period last year [2][16]. - On June 6, the first batch of 9 credit - bond ETFs were officially included in the general repurchase of pledged bonds. The scale of credit - bond ETFs expanded rapidly. At the end of Q2, the scale of 8 benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs was 128.2 billion yuan, about 4.4 times that at the end of Q1 [19]. 3.2 Preference from Heavy - Holding Bonds: Gaming Duration Opportunities - The total scale of public funds' holdings of coupon - bearing assets remained stable, with structural differentiations. In Q2, the heavy - holding scale of credit bonds by funds was stable at around 800 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.37% compared to Q1, while the signal of increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds was obvious, with the holding scale increasing by 4.35% quarter - on - quarter [22]. - Funds actively pursued long - duration assets. The scale of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years held by funds in Q2 soared to 14 billion yuan, and the number of holding funds increased from 76 at the end of Q1 to 124 at the end of Q2 [25]. - In terms of sub - bond types, funds mainly increased their holdings of bank sub - debt and industrial bonds in Q2, and continued to reduce their holdings of general commercial financial bonds. The heavy - holding scale of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds (Two - Tier Bonds) increased by 26.5 billion yuan to 269.1 billion yuan, becoming the bond type with the largest heavy - holding scale. There was also a slight increase in industrial bonds, while the reduction was mainly concentrated in urban investment bonds and general commercial financial bonds, with a reduction scale of over 12 billion yuan [29]. 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Narrowed Supply and Preference Conversion - The supply of urban investment bonds continued to shrink. In Q2, 1.22 trillion yuan of urban investment bonds were issued, showing an obvious reduction compared to Q1 and the same period in previous years. After hedging against maturities, the net financing gap of urban investment bonds in Q2 expanded to 226.8 billion yuan, further narrowing the institutional allocation space. The scale of funds' holdings of urban investment bonds of all implicit ratings decreased, and the proportion of holdings of urban investment bonds with AA and below ratings by funds dropped to 55.5% [32]. - The proportion of 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds held by funds increased. In Q2, the proportion of short - term urban investment bonds with a maturity of within 1 year held by funds dropped to 33%, the proportion of 3 - 5 - year bonds climbed to 15.6%, reaching a new high since 2022, and the proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increased marginally to 1.9% [38]. - In terms of regional distribution, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu were still the provinces with the largest scale of urban investment bond allocation by funds. The holding duration of Shanghai's urban investment bonds was significantly extended [40][45]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds: Long - Duration Utility Bonds are Favored - Funds' increase in holdings of industrial bonds was concentrated in the transportation and utility industries. In Q2, the scale of funds' preference for allocating utility bonds and transportation bonds increased by more than 2 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter, and these two industries were among the top three industries with the largest scale of heavy - holding industrial bonds by funds, with heavy - holding scales of 27.4 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan respectively [4][48]. - In terms of duration distribution, the proportion of industrial bonds with a maturity of within 1 year held by funds reached a new high, climbing to 29%, and the average holding duration of the transportation and coal industries showed a shortening trend. On the other hand, the proportion of industrial bonds with a maturity of over 4 years also increased significantly, which was consistent with the extension of the holding duration of utility bonds from 1.4 years in Q1 to 2.5 years [4]. 3.2.3 Financial Bonds: The Trading Main Line of Secondary Bonds of National and Joint - Stock Banks - Funds have increased their holdings of Tier 2 capital bonds for three consecutive quarters. Since Q4 2023, the trend of funds increasing their holdings of Tier 2 capital bonds has been obvious, which is related to their characteristics of easy volume acquisition and high liquidity. In the context of low interest rates, seizing trading opportunities to earn capital gains has become one of the main lines [4][55]. - However, funds' sentiment towards allocating sub - debt of small and medium - sized banks cooled down. The proportion of small and medium - sized banks' Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds in the total holding scale of Two - Tier Bonds dropped to 12.7%, and investors' concerns about the capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks increased [59]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of 4 - 5 - year secondary bonds, and the proportion of secondary bonds with a maturity of over 5 years held by funds reached a new high. Compared with Q1, the scale of funds' holdings of Two - Tier Bonds with a maturity of 4 - 5 years increased by 18.8 billion yuan, and the proportion of this maturity increased to 29.5%. The proportion of Tier 2 capital bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increased to 4.4%, a significant breakthrough since 2020. For bank perpetual bonds, holdings were still concentrated in the short - end within 1 year, but the preference for allocating 3 - 5 - year bank perpetual bonds also improved [4][60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of July 25, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.19 years and 3.46 years respectively, both at over 90% of the historical quantiles since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.45 years, 3.86 years, and 2.74 years respectively. The bank perpetual bonds were at a relatively low historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.50 years, 2.31 years, 3.65 years, and 1.22 years respectively. The securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at lower historical quantiles, while the leasing company bonds were at a higher historical quantile [3][12]. - The coupon duration crowding index decreased and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and slightly rose this week compared to last week. Currently, it is at the 17.60% level since March 2021 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 2.19 years. Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds' duration extended to nearly 8 years, while Guangdong prefecture - level city urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 2.69 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Henan provincial, Shandong prefecture - level city, Jiangsu district - county level, and Fujian district - county level had exceeded 90%, and the duration of Chongqing district - county level urban investment bonds was approaching the highest since 2021 [4][22]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 3.46 years, slightly shorter than last week. The trading duration of the coal industry shortened to 1.85 years, and that of the building materials industry extended to 3.79 years. The real - estate industry's trading duration was at a relatively low historical level, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% of the historical quantiles [4][30]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.74 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.45 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.86 years, at the 72.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [4][35]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 82.6%, 57%, 26.9%, and 69.4% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][38]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 2.19 years. There were significant regional differences. For example, Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds had a long duration, while Guangdong prefecture - level city urban investment bonds had a short duration. Some regional urban investment bonds' durations were at high historical quantiles [4][22]. - Industrial bonds: The overall weighted average trading term was around 3.46 years, with different trends in different industries. The coal industry's duration shortened, and the building materials industry's duration extended. Different industries were at different historical quantiles [4][30]. - Commercial bank bonds: All three types of bonds (general commercial financial bonds, secondary capital bonds, and bank perpetual bonds) had their durations extended compared to last year, with different historical quantiles [4][35]. - Other financial bonds: There were differences in the durations and historical quantiles among different types of bonds, and the durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly increased [4][38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary