利率债方面，年初受人民币汇率波动加剧影响，央行流动性投放优先侧重于稳定汇率，并叠加降准、降 息预期迟迟未能落地，短端利率出现较为明显的回调，期限利差持续收窄。全年来看，利率债仅出现过 一轮由中美贸易摩擦驱动的趋势性上涨。随着5月7日央行实施50BP降准及10BP降息，加之此后中美高 层谈判推进、加征关税措施暂缓，市场在股债"跷跷板"效应与公募债基费率改革政策的共同影响下，长 端利率逐步转为震荡走弱格局。短端则受益于资金面保持宽松，波动相对有限，期限利差由此持续走 阔。 一、2025年度债市复盘 2025年，国内资本市场呈现较显著的"股强债弱"格局。债市全年震荡走弱，年初即回吐去年末因提前交 易降准降息预期而累积的涨幅，此后走势逐步与基本面数据背离，这一特征在10年期及以上长期债券中 较为明显。与此同时，A股市场在海内外科技主题驱动、经济复苏预期升温以及政策利好支撑下，表现 相对强劲。 上图数据来源于DM查债通，数据截止2025年12月16日。指数行情走势不预示其未来表现，也不代表具 体基金产品表现。以上信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议，基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 上图数据来源于WIND，数据截止2025年12月 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 信用利差多数走阔，优先布局中短端票息资产 ——信用周报 20251221 （1）1y 品种：当前收益率主要分布在 1.72%-1.80%区间，利差在 2024 年以来 中枢水平以下 13-19BP，本周利差小幅回升，但性价比仍相对较低。 （2）2-3y 品种：收益率主要分布在 1.83%-2.10%区间，利差在 19-42BP 区间， 考虑增值税新规对国开债曲线影响后（按 3%税率估算，影响约 5BP），2-3y 信 用品种利差在 2024 年以来中枢水平附近。考虑到后续基金和理财对短端品种 的配置需求较高，可优选底仓品种，优先布局明年中短端票息资产。 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.35%区间，利差在 26-55BP 区间。 本周 4-5y 品种利差走阔，尤其低等级品种，主要受地产债及周期债调整影响， 票息配置性价比边际回升。在 3y 以内短端极致拥挤的情况下，基金和理财或 拉长久期至 4-5y 品种博取收益，但需求力量较今年或整体有所减弱、波动性 或增强。从季节性看，12 月信用利差压缩动能通常有限，一季度非银配置力 量逐渐增强、债市利空因素边际 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关注中短端品种结构性机会 ——信用周报20251214 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.5%区间，利差在 22-60BP 区间。 近期债市波动放大，利空因素扰动下 4-5y 品种信用利差有所走阔，票息配置 性价比边际回升。近期可适当关注波动市场中利差较高品种的结构性机会，逢 高配置票息资产，其中 3-4yAA+银行二永债与保险次级利差较高可优先关注。 （4）5y 以上品种：中高等级品种收益率主要分布在 2.25%-2.8%区间，利差在 25-60BP 区间。仍具备一定票息优势，但考验负债端稳定性，需凭借负债端稳 定性获取票息的时间价值，交易参与需因时而动。在当前债市扰动因素较多、 情绪偏弱的情况下，负债端稳定性偏弱的机构需谨慎，保险、自营等负债端稳 定性较强机构可重点关注，逢高配置。 ❖ 重点政策及热点事件： 1、中国冶金科工股份有限公司将多家子公司股权出售给五矿地产与中国五 矿。中国中冶此次打包售卖地产与矿山资产既能够补充资金反哺主业，也剥离 业绩承压的非主营业务，有利于估值修复。 2、渤海租赁股份有限公司拟召开持有人会议，审议豁免监票人 ...

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trading activity of bank perpetual bonds (二永债) has increased significantly in 2025, with daily transaction volumes and the proportion of these bonds in the overall credit bond market rising from 31% in 2024 to 39% in 2025 [1][21] - Major non-bank institutions, including funds, wealth management, insurance, and other asset management products, have increased their allocation to perpetual bonds, with net purchases reaching 325.8 billion, 386.5 billion, 43.2 billion, and 433.8 billion yuan respectively [1][21] - The demand for perpetual bonds may face pressure in 2026 due to structural impacts, particularly from new fund sales fee regulations that could lead to redemption pressures on short and medium-term bond funds [2][28] Group 2 - The net supply of perpetual bonds is expected to remain low, with state-owned banks showing stable issuance while smaller banks may continue to increase supply due to declining capital adequacy ratios [3][9] - The trading characteristics of perpetual bonds in 2025 show a "top and bottom" pattern in yield spreads, with slight downward adjustments in the 3-year and 5-year spreads, while the 10-year spreads have increased [4][11] - The trading environment for perpetual bonds has become more challenging, requiring institutions to engage in more frequent trading to enhance returns, especially as the yield spreads have narrowed [5][12] Group 3 - The performance of perpetual bonds has been differentiated, with short-term and low-grade bonds performing strongly while long-term bonds have lagged behind [16][17] - The insurance sector has shown a weaker demand for perpetual bonds in recent years, influenced by declining yields and the introduction of new accounting standards that affect the valuation of these bonds [37][38] - The overall market sentiment and trading dynamics for perpetual bonds are expected to be influenced by regulatory changes and market conditions, with potential opportunities arising from adjustments in fund management practices [28][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, the investment strategy for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should focus on trading, with limited value in credit quality downgrading. The demand side of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may face pressure, mainly with structural impacts, while the net supply is likely to remain at a low level, and small and medium - sized banks may continue to increase issuance. The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit, but trading difficulties have increased, and short - term downgrading of these bonds may not yield significant excess returns [2][7][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025, Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: Primary Market Contraction and Secondary Market Differentiation - **Net financing contraction**: In 2025, the net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased year - on - year. The total issuance was 1.58 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 432.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 86.4 billion yuan. The decrease was mainly due to the reduced supply from joint - stock and small and medium - sized banks [12]. - **Differentiated performance**: The yield of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed an "M" - shaped oscillatory trend in 2025. Short - term and low - grade bonds performed strongly, with significant narrowing of credit spreads, while long - term bonds underperformed [31]. 3.2 2025, Changes in Institutional Behavior - **More active trading**: In 2025, the trading of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds became more active. The average daily trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous year, and the proportion of trading volume in all credit bonds rose from 31% in 2024 to 39% [1]. - **Increased allocation by major non - bank institutions**: In 2025, funds, wealth management products, insurance, and other asset management products all net - bought other types of bonds (mainly bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds) in the secondary market. Among them, funds, wealth management products, and insurance increased their allocation efforts year - on - year [39]. 3.3 2026, Outlook on the Supply and Demand of Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - **Demand side pressure with structural impacts**: Under the new regulations on fund sales fees, short - term and medium - short - term bond funds may face redemption pressure, leading to selling pressure on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. Wealth management products are undergoing rectification of net - value smoothing methods, reducing their positions in these bonds. The full implementation of the new insurance I9 accounting standard in 2026 may suppress the demand for long - term bonds [2][3]. - **Low net supply, potential increase from small and medium - sized banks**: From 2024 - 2025, the net financing of state - owned banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was significantly reduced and may remain low in the future. Although the capital adequacy ratios of joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks are above the regulatory requirements, they have shown a downward trend this year. If interest rates remain low next year, small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance [63]. 3.4 2026, Focus on Trading, Limited Value in Downgrading - **Credit spread characteristics**: The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit. In 2025, the credit spread of 3 - year bonds had a slightly lower central value and a compressed fluctuation range; the central values of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds increased, with the 5 - year bond's fluctuation range narrowing and the 10 - year bond's upper and lower limits rising [68][69][73]. - **Trading difficulties**: The yield of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been oscillating in a narrow range at a low level, and the "amplification of interest rate fluctuations" attribute has weakened year - on - year, increasing trading difficulties. In 2026, more precise timing is needed to enhance returns [81][84]. - **Low downgrading value**: The credit risk of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is controllable, but the cost - effectiveness of short - term and low - grade bonds has decreased significantly. In the future, short - term downgrading may not yield significant excess returns [92][95].

Group 1: Credit Strategy and Market Overview - The credit bond market has experienced narrow fluctuations in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads. The market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and a pullback in US equities, leading to a weakened risk appetite for equities, while the bond market lacks a clear trading direction [1][8] - The excess spread of credit bond ETFs has risen significantly, indicating a rebound after a period of decline. This is attributed to the overall weak performance of credit bonds and the good liquidity of constituent bonds, which have seen a significant drop in valuation [1][9] - The current period is seen as a good window for accumulating interest-bearing assets, with the yield spread for 3-year bonds compressed below the lowest point expected for 2024, suggesting a low cost-performance ratio [1][12] Group 2: Long-term Credit Opportunities - There is a notable increase in the allocation of long-term credit bonds (10 years and above) by insurance and other products, indicating a trend towards extending duration for yield enhancement. Funds have shown a net buying trend for bonds with maturities of 5-7 years while slightly selling off 7-10 year bonds [2][21] - The yield for long-term credit bonds rated AA+ and above is currently in the range of 2.14%-2.66%, with credit spreads between 22-60 basis points, indicating sufficient spread protection [2][21] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - Jilin Province has met the conditions to exit the list of high-risk debt provinces, which is expected to open up new financing opportunities for regional development and bond issuance [3][27] - The support from Shenzhen Metro Group for Vanke's healthy development is crucial as Vanke faces significant operational challenges and debt repayment pressures [3][27] - CICC plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, which is expected to enhance market recognition and resource integration following regulatory support for brokerage mergers [3][27]

Core Insights - The report indicates a challenging environment for perpetual bonds in the banking sector, with both supply and demand expected to remain weak in 2026 [2][3] - The net supply of perpetual bonds is projected to stabilize at a low level, with significant contributions from TLAC bonds [2][3] - Demand for bank perpetual bonds is facing challenges due to regulatory changes and market conditions, impacting their attractiveness [2][3] Supply - The net supply of perpetual bonds has decreased significantly, with 2025's issuance at 1.38 trillion yuan, down from previous years, and net financing dropping to 363 billion yuan [8][12] - The supply is expected to remain low in 2026, with net financing projected to be around 400-500 billion yuan, characterized by a decline in large banks' issuance and an increase from smaller banks [2][3] - TLAC bonds are anticipated to provide some relief to the supply side, with a projected net supply of around 300 billion yuan in 2026 [2][3] Demand - Bank perpetual bonds continue to be a crucial component of the credit bond market, but demand is weakening due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][3] - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance companies may reduce their investment capacity in perpetual bonds, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [2][3] - The demand from banks for self-managed investments is likely to stabilize, while mutual funds may face challenges due to new fee regulations, impacting their allocation to perpetual bonds [2][3] Valuation - The report highlights the potential for a shift in the relative valuation of perpetual bonds due to weak supply and demand dynamics [3][3] - Credit spreads for perpetual bonds may face upward pressure if participation from funds and insurance companies diminishes, with projected spreads for 3-year AAA-rated bonds in the range of 25-60 basis points [3][3] - The valuation of different bond types is expected to diverge, with higher-grade bonds potentially facing upward pressure on spreads [3][3] Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach to trading opportunities in high-grade bank perpetual bonds, with a focus on price differences between new and existing bonds [3][3] - For mid-sized banks' perpetual bonds, it is recommended to actively monitor value propositions while being cautious of non-redemption risks [3][3] - TLAC bonds are noted for their dual value in both allocation and trading, with a particular emphasis on floating rate bonds [3][3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Group 1 - The overall outlook for credit bonds in November remains optimistic, influenced by the new public fund redemption fee regulations and changes in the equity market [1][23] - The credit bond yield curve showed a downward trend in October, particularly after the central bank announced the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a better performance of credit bonds compared to interest rates [2][16] - Historical performance of credit strategies in November since 2021 indicates that most strategies have yielded positive returns, except for the negative impact seen in November 2022 due to a redemption wave [9][12] Group 2 - In October, the strategy of extending duration yielded the best returns among various credit strategies, with city investment bonds outperforming others [4][6] - The yield of 3Y AAA-rated secondary capital bonds decreased from 2.06% to 1.90% by the end of October, reflecting a strong upward trend in credit bonds [16] - The historical percentile rankings for various credit bonds indicate that there is still room for yields to decline, particularly for 5Y secondary capital bonds [22][23] Group 3 - The investment recommendation for November suggests maintaining a relatively optimistic stance on credit strategies, supported by high historical percentiles and a favorable liquidity environment [22][23] - The resumption of government bond trading and overall loose funding rates are expected to continue supporting the upward trend in credit bonds, although the depth of this trend remains to be observed [22][23] - The cost of liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, encouraging increased investment in bonds [22][23]