Traders are getting harder to frighten even as measures that presaged past market stress climb. A global trade policy uncertainty index tracked by Bloomberg is rising, just as it did in the months before April’s global market meltdown https://t.co/lA9iWDfJ3T ...

3 July 2025 | 11:09AM EDT Global Economics Comment: A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag (Briggs/Dong) A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag Trade policy uncertainty rose in most countries after President Trump's election victory (and spiked sharply following Liberation Day on April 2), exceeding levels observed during the 2018-19 trade war. While uncertainty indices remain high Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o ...

Key Takeaways FIX saw 37% of Q1 2025 revenue from advanced tech builds, exposing it to tariff-driven cost pressures. Project pricing is mostly locked in early, and supplier hikes have stayed within typical ranges so far. FIX's $6.9B backlog reflects strong demand in tech and institutional markets into 2026.As tariff headlines rattle the construction and tech sectors, Comfort Systems USA (FIX) finds itself at the intersection of both. With 37% of its first-quarter 2025 revenue tied to advanced tech project ...

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters reported disappointing quarterly earnings, reflecting a $75 million write-down in spring and summer merchandise, leading to the withdrawal of its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced an operating loss of $85.18 million for the three-month period ending May 3, compared to a net income of $77.84 million a year earlier [4]. - Revenue decreased to $1.09 billion, consistent with expectations but down from $1.14 billion a year prior, with comparable sales down 3% [5][10]. - Loss per share was reported at 29 cents adjusted, compared to an expected loss of 22 cents [10]. Management Commentary - CEO Jay Schottenstein acknowledged the challenging first quarter and expressed disappointment with the results, emphasizing actions to improve performance in upcoming quarters [2][6]. - The company is working to align inventory with sales trends and is actively evaluating forward plans to strengthen product performance [7]. Future Guidance - AEO issued a downbeat outlook for the second quarter, expecting revenue to decline by 5% and comparable sales to decrease by 3% [6]. - The company anticipates operating income for the second quarter to be between $40 million and $45 million [6]. Industry Context - AEO is not alone in withdrawing or modifying financial guidance, as other retailers like E.l.f. Beauty and Canada Goose have also adjusted their forecasts due to trade uncertainties [8]. - The company sources nearly 20% of its products from China and aims to reduce this to below 10% by the end of the fiscal year, with potential tariff impacts of $5 million to $10 million [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is facing significant challenges due to a dynamic market landscape, weak conditions, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty, particularly in its Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [1][4]. Financial Performance - ADM's shares have declined by 19% over the past year, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's increase of 5.9% and the S&P 500 index's increase of 10.7% [2]. - The stock's decline is more pronounced than the Agriculture - Operations industry's dip of 1.8% [2]. Segment Performance - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is experiencing headwinds from market dislocations, increased cost inflation, and lower margins in the Crushing subsegment due to elevated industry capacity and competitive meal exports from Argentina [4]. - In the Refined Products and Other segment, biodiesel margins are negatively impacted by biofuel and trade policy uncertainty, weak oil demand, and higher crush capacity [5]. Market Challenges - Ongoing price weakness in main feed ration commodities and compliance with evolving regulations are significant deterrents for the company [6]. - Management has noted signs of weakening customer demand, particularly in carb solutions, leading to reduced volume expectations for certain markets and products [7]. Earnings Outlook - Management has not provided a segment operating profit outlook for future quarters due to tariff policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions [8]. - For 2025, adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $4 and $4.75, with expectations leaning towards the lower end [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has decreased by 4% to $4.07, and for 2026, it has dropped by 4.6% to $4.61 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Despite current challenges, ADM is implementing strategies to return to growth by managing productivity, innovation, and aligning with trends in food security and health [11]. - The company is focusing on strengthening internal controls, improving operational performance, and simplifying its portfolio to enhance core competencies [11].

21 May 2025 | 10:11PM IST Goldman Sachs Asia in Focus India: Towards a better growth-inflation balance Santanu Sengupta +91(22)6616-9042 | santanu.sengupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Arjun Varma +91(22)6616-9043 | arjun.varma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclo ...

Capital Southwest (CSWC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call May 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Amy Baker - EVP - AccountingMichael Sarner - President & CEOJosh Weinstein - Senior MD & Chief Investment OfficerChris Rehberger - CFO, Treasure & SecretaryMickey Schleien - MD - Equity ResearchErik Zwick - Managing Director, Equity ResearchRobert Dodd - Director - Finance Conference Call Participants Cory Johnson - Associate Analyst Operator Thank you for joining today's Capital Southwest Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year ...

Core Insights - Northwest Pipe Company reported its financial results for Q1 2025, highlighting a mix of challenges and respectable performance across its business segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $116.1 million, a 2.6% increase from $113.2 million in Q1 2024 [4][5]. - Net income decreased to $4.0 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, compared to $5.2 million, or $0.52 per diluted share in the same period last year [5][20]. - Gross profit fell by 3.8% to $19.4 million, representing 16.7% of net sales, down from 17.8% in Q1 2024 [5][20]. Segment Performance - The Engineered Steel Pressure Pipe (SPP) segment generated $78.4 million in revenue, a 2.0% decrease from $80.0 million in Q1 2024, with a gross profit margin of 15.5% [5][6]. - The Precast Infrastructure and Engineered Systems segment saw revenues increase by 13.4% to $37.7 million, with a gross profit margin of 19.1%, marking a 140 basis point improvement year-over-year [14][20]. Backlog and Orders - The SPP backlog was $203 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $213 million at the end of 2024 [6]. - The backlog including confirmed orders for SPP was $289 million, a decrease from $310 million at the end of 2024 [6]. - The Precast order book rose to $64 million, up 23% year-over-year, driven by growth in the non-residential segment [14]. Strategic Outlook - The company anticipates a rebound in bidding activity in Q2 2025, with backlog climbing above $300 million [2]. - Expectations for the second half of 2025 include continued growth in both revenue and margins for both business segments [2][14]. - The company plans to rebrand as NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. in June 2025, reflecting its strategic evolution towards infrastructure-focused solutions [2][4].

Stellantis logo is pictured at one of its assembly plants following a company's announcement saying it will pause production there, in Toluca, state of Mexico, Mexico, on April 4, 2025.Auto giant Stellantis on Wednesday said it was withdrawing its full-year financial guidance due to uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's back-and-forth trade policy.The multinational conglomerate, which owns household names including Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot, reported first-quarter ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $540.5 million, down from $651.7 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to reduced coal sales volumes and prices as well as lower transportation revenues [5] - Average coal sales price per ton decreased by 6.9% year-over-year to $60.29, but increased by 0.5% sequentially [5] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $74 million, compared to $158.1 million in Q1 2024, reflecting lower coal sales volumes and realized prices [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $159.9 million [11] - Total debt outstanding was $484.1 million, with total liquidity at $514.3 million [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total coal production in Q1 2025 was 8.5 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% compared to Q1 2024, while coal sales volumes decreased by 10.4% to 7.8 million tons [5][6] - In the Illinois Basin, coal sales price per ton decreased by 4.2%, while in Appalachia, it decreased by 8.5% [5] - Segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold for coal operations was $42.75, an increase of 4.7% year-over-year [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic market strengthened in early 2025 due to cold weather, higher natural gas prices, and declining coal inventories, leading to increased coal consumption [19] - The company has secured commitments for an additional 17.7 million tons over the 2025 to 2028 period, with 32.5 million tons committed in price for 2025 [14] - Coal consumption in Q1 2025 was 20% higher than the previous year [69] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to prioritize domestic market contracts over new export contracts due to strong domestic demand [19] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation while monitoring trade policy impacts [27] - The company expects to see cost improvements in Appalachia as mining conditions improve [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the executive orders from the administration regarding coal and grid reliability are positive for the industry [21][22] - The company anticipates a material improvement in full-year costs to offset lower realized pricing in the coal business for 2025 [15] - Management expressed confidence in achieving cost guidance for Appalachia as operations improve [45] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly distribution of $0.70 per unit for Q1 2025, unchanged from previous quarters [12][27] - The company plans to invest in oil and gas minerals and data center infrastructure, depending on market conditions [50][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on President Trump's executive orders and coal plant retirement delays - Management indicated that most utilities served intend to take advantage of extensions for coal plants and are responsive to increased electricity demand [36][37] Question: Impact of trade policies on business - Management discussed the impact of tariff increases on steel and aluminum and the uncertainty surrounding trade policies, but noted the administration's awareness of the energy sector's importance [41][43] Question: Confidence in achieving cost per ton guidance for Appalachia - Management expressed confidence in achieving cost guidance, with improvements expected in the second half of 2025 as operations stabilize [45][46] Question: Capital allocation strategy in the current environment - Management stated that capital allocation is focused on maintenance capital for coal operations, while also evaluating growth opportunities in data center infrastructure [49][50]