The bears have been in control of financial markets lately, but have no fear, the Trump put is here. And he hit us with a truth social post that promised a $2,000 tariff dividend to every single US citizen who isn't a high income earner. You didn't think the president, who measures the health of the US economy and bases it on the stock market performance, that he was going to sit around and let the bears take a victory lap, did you.Of course not. He has consistently made announcements that influence the sto ...

Market Overview - Asian stocks experienced a significant surge due to easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed optimism for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indices ended their seven-session losing streak, rebounding strongly after previously reaching a 52-week high on October 2, with all industry sectors showing positive performance [3] Investment Activity - Mainland investors were net sellers of Hong Kong stocks via Southbound Stock Connect, particularly selling positions in the Hong Kong Tracker ETF, but were net buyers of several individual stocks [4] - JD.com saw a 2% increase following a partnership announcement with GAC Group and CATL to produce an electric vehicle priced between RMB 100,000 and RMB 120,000, despite mixed optics due to recent earnings impacts from its restaurant delivery expansion [4] IPO and Stock Performance - Cloud Walk Robotics' IPO shares surged by 75% in pre-market trading, indicating strong market interest [5] - Baidu's stock rose by 2.73%, despite analysts projecting a decline in its third-quarter core search revenue between 7% and 11% [5] Economic Indicators - Mainland China's equity markets showed strength, although the breadth lagged behind Hong Kong, with declines in the energy, shipping, and air freight sectors [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China fell by 0.3% year-over-year in September, a slight improvement from August's 0.4% decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 2.3% year-over-year, matching expectations [6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-over-year in September, compared to a 0.9% increase in August [7] Financing and Economic Health - New loans in Mainland China reached RMB 14.75 trillion year-to-date in September, up from RMB 13.46 trillion in August, while aggregate financing rose to RMB 30.09 trillion, exceeding consensus expectations [7] - LVMH reported a 2% sales increase in Asia ex-Japan, including China, in the third quarter, indicating a recovery among high-end consumers after previous declines [8] Geopolitical Context - Recent meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials have been highlighted, with a focus on the influence of financial markets on U.S.-China relations [9] - The U.S. Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation's actions regarding Chinese semiconductor firms illustrate the complexities of international trade and sanctions [9][10]

Do stocks still have enough momentum to run into the fall. Jonathan Thomas is the American Century CEO and joins us now to tell us what he thinks. Good to see you again.I wish I was there. It looks beautiful as ever. I wish you were here as well.I think we got Dom sneaking out here for a day or two, but you got to get out here, Scott. Yeah, he's a lucky man. He's definitely a lucky man.So, how do you what do you think about about this market. You you feel like we've we've really had a V-shaped recovery if I ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Policies - The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the U.S. has led to significant market volatility, with major indices experiencing declines and a total market value loss of approximately $3.1 trillion [1] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17% and the S&P 500 by 0.76%, marking three consecutive months of decline [1] - Recent rebounds in the U.S. stock market are attributed to easing overseas pressures, positive earnings reports from major tech companies, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Corporate Earnings - Concerns remain regarding the potential transformation of market pressures from risk appetite shocks to weak economic data, particularly as the effects of tariffs may not be fully realized yet [3] - The earnings guidance from major companies during the earnings season has shown pessimistic signals, with Apple projecting a $900 million loss due to tariffs and several companies withdrawing their annual financial guidance [4][5] - The disparity in corporate performance is evident, with companies like Apple facing significant impacts from tariffs, while others like Google show resilience [5] Group 3: Impact on the Film Industry - The U.S. tariff policy is extending to the film industry, with a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, which could drastically increase production costs and reduce market revenues for major studios [8][9] - The potential for job losses in Hollywood and a decline in the industry's ecosystem is highlighted, as increased costs may drive smaller production companies out of the market [9] - The global cultural industry may experience a shift, with retaliatory tariffs from trade partners and a rise in local cultural industries filling the void left by U.S. films [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Markets Research** sector, focusing on **Foreign Exchange** strategies and **Asia Rates Strategy**. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **US Market Dynamics**: The call highlights the risk of continued portfolio outflows from the US, exacerbated by negative macroeconomic signals and the potential for increased tariffs from the Trump administration [9][10][11]. 2. **Foreign Investment in US Assets**: As of the end of 2024, total foreign holdings of US assets were USD 33.0 trillion, with significant contributions from the euro area and Asia [10]. 3. **Tariff Impacts**: The recent tariffs imposed by the US on China have led to a significant increase in the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports, raising concerns about the economic impact on both countries [13][30]. 4. **Asia FX Strategy**: The strategy includes a high conviction level for short positions on CNH against an abridged CFETS basket, targeting a 5% gain by the end of May [12][13]. 5. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The call discusses expectations for interest rate cuts in various regions, including a potential cut by the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [31][32]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Growth Concerns**: The economic outlook for Thailand has been downgraded, with expectations of a sharp decline in export growth and a potential cut in the Bank of Thailand's policy rates [16]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment around the USD remains cautious, with expectations of a volatile snap-back in response to market dynamics and potential policy changes from the Trump administration or the Fed [11][20]. 3. **China's Economic Data**: Upcoming economic data releases from China are critical, with expectations of slowing growth and potential stimulus measures being closely monitored [14][30]. 4. **Singapore's Monetary Policy**: The MAS is expected to announce a zero slope of appreciation, which could lead to a significant impact on the S$NEER and front-end rates [15][32]. 5. **Global Economic Interdependencies**: The interconnectedness of global markets is emphasized, particularly how US tariff policies affect other economies, including those in Asia and Europe [22][27]. Conclusion The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on foreign exchange strategies and the implications of US tariff policies on international investments. The insights into economic forecasts, market sentiment, and strategic recommendations highlight the complexities and interdependencies of the current financial landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The external geopolitical environment in late March is characterized by increasing disturbances, but it does not alter the recovery of market confidence [1][4] Group 1: Market Concerns and Economic Data - Recent market concerns revolve around the accelerating pace of Trump's policies, including tariffs and layoffs, exacerbated by the absence of the "Trump put" [2][3] - Despite the overall stability of current U.S. economic data, increasing uncertainty may lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of negative expectations [2][3] Group 2: Ideal Policy Pathway - Based on historical patterns during a new president's honeymoon period and midterm election preparations, the ideal policy pathway for Trump involves quickly implementing negative policies while maintaining a high tolerance for pain, followed by a gradual reduction of shocks and the introduction of positive policies like tax cuts [2][3][4] - The ideal pathway's realization depends on several assumptions, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may not dissipate quickly [3][4] Group 3: Trade and Non-Trade Policies - In trade, Trump's administration has initiated the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, which aims to assess trade relations comprehensively, with conclusions expected by April 1 [5] - In non-trade areas, discussions within Trump's team regarding chip controls against China indicate a strong intent to enhance restrictions, which may impact certain re-exported goods from China [5] Group 4: Additional Hot Topics - The fluctuating nature of Trump's tariff threats has created ongoing market disturbances, with key upcoming dates being April 1 for the trade policy results and April 2 for details on "reciprocal tariffs" [6] - Progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Europe's fiscal expansion are also noteworthy, as they may influence the political and economic landscape in the Eurozone [6] - The U.S. Congress has temporarily resolved a government shutdown crisis by passing a short-term spending bill, reflecting ongoing budgetary negotiations and potential resistance to Trump's fiscal policies [7]