V i e w p o i n t | 07 Aug 2025 21:57:43 ET │ 11 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (14): Brace for Volatility in August CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Aug 5th . Tariffs uncertainties are on rise with the reciprocal tariffs revised and the secondary tariffs (on India for now) announced. The week ahead is the deadline for a US-China tariff truce. In the case of extension, China-RoW tariff differential would narrow, with divergent impact across products. The ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials and Shipping - **Focus**: Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, covering shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][36] Core Insights - **Container Throughput**: Container throughput at key ports in China increased by 3% week-over-week (WoW) and 5% year-over-year (YoY) in week 29, indicating an acceleration in front-loading [3][6] - **Port of Los Angeles**: Import volume estimates indicated a flat WoW change but a significant 17% YoY growth in week 31, following a 14% YoY decrease in week 30 [9] - **International Freight Flights**: The number of international freight flights rose by 12% YoY last week, compared to an 11% YoY increase in week 28 [30] Shipping Rates and Trends - **Freight Rates**: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 5% WoW, with transpacific rates declining by 2% and 13% for the West Coast and East Coast of the US, respectively [4][12] - **Container Ship Supply**: The supply of container ships in intra-Asia remained stable, with the Asia feeder ship availability index increasing by 2% WoW [4][15] Port Operations and Congestion - **Port Congestion**: High yard utilization continues at European ports, although overall waiting times for container ships have decreased by 22% WoW [5][24] - **Average Waiting Times**: Average waiting times at major North and South American ports remain around 5 days, with some ships still experiencing delays [26][31] Additional Insights - **China Expressway Truck Traffic**: Increased by 2% YoY last week, indicating a potential rise in domestic logistics activity [25] - **Vietnam Exports**: Vietnam's exports rose by 21% YoY in the second half of June, reflecting strong trade dynamics in the region [19] Risks and Considerations - **Macroeconomic Risks**: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a key risk for China's industrial sector, with potential impacts on demand for industrial goods and import/export volumes [36] - **Policy Changes**: Cancellation of preferential policies, such as tax incentives for high-tech companies, could adversely affect earnings [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China industrial and shipping sectors, along with potential risks and opportunities.

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Trade Policy & Geopolitical Risk - The US administration is employing a "maximum pressure campaign" to extract more concessions from trading partners [1] - The delay of deadlines to August 1st suggests a need for more political wins to portray trade negotiations as successful [2] - Sectoral tariffs, particularly Section 232 investigations into semiconductors, pharma, and metals, are looming and could be more consequential than reciprocal tariffs [2][4][5] - A fragile truce exists between the US and China, centered around rare earths and export controls, but either side could disrupt it [7][9] US-China Trade Relations - The US administration desires further trade talks with China and greater market access, but China's track record suggests potential disappointment [8][11] - Washington's conciliatory moves towards Beijing may be interpreted as weakness, leading China to push for more concessions [9] - President Trump has indicated a potential additional 10% tariff in response to perceived anti-American policies from BRICS nations [5] Corporate Strategy & Re-industrialization - Companies need a China strategy that considers the long-term and the historical challenges of US-China trade negotiations [11] - The US needs a strategy on rare earths to address its dependency on China [13] - Beyond tariffs, a broader array of support strategies is needed to re-industrialize the United States [15] - The removal of green energy measures from a recent bill hinders the creation of sustainable demand for nascent rare earth projects [14]

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 22:20:36 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (9): Steady into Liberation Day 2.0 CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jul 2nd . Shipping to the US had a few volatile weeks but managed to rebound lately, and the tentative trough for US-China trade could still hold, in our view. Overall cargo throughput grew at a slower pace in the past week. We forecast China's headline exports growth at 3.3%YoY for June. As the RoW comes to ...

V i e w p o i n t | 15 May 2025 21:53:32 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (2): Shipping to US Stabilizes into May CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to May 15th . Overall exports could have softened marginally into May, while we expect positive growth for the whole month thanks to the Phase 1.5 Deal. Shipping to the US stabilized and picked up at the end of April following the earlier slump. Overall exports weakened marginally into May — Container expor ...