20 Nov 2025 21:23:14 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (29): Another Tentative Bottom for US-China Trade CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 19th . China's exports to the US seem to have found another tentative trough in recent weeks. Overall cargo throughput weakened as the high base started to kick in, while export volume has managed to hold up at low-single-digit growth so far in November. We believe exports growth could turn positive after the c ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Nov 2025 19:47:44 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (28): Exports Stabilize Post the Contraction in October CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 12th . China's exports to the US stabilized at low levels with the two sides cutting tariffs and removing port fees. The level of cargo throughput has picked up from the trough seen in mid-October and stabilized. A return to positive exports growth in November looks quite likely to us. ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The focus on discipline in investment is emphasized, particularly regarding valuation as the year ends [1] - There is a recognition of the importance of fundamentals, despite the prevailing market momentum [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - Agyant Tech - Agyant Tech is highlighted as a current investment pick, trading close to market levels but underperforming [2] - The company's business model involves analyzing various sectors including healthcare, food, and semiconductors, with a significant portion of revenue coming from its service model [3] - The healthcare sector is expected to outperform the market in the upcoming midterm election year, making Agyant Tech an attractive investment [4] Group 3: External Factors Impacting Agyant Tech - Agyant Tech has been affected by US-China trade relations, tariffs, and logistics costs, but improvements in these areas could benefit the company [5][6] - The anticipated end of the government shutdown is expected to increase healthcare procedures, positively impacting Agyant Tech's business [5] Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The discussion includes the performance of gold as a portfolio balance, with a recommendation to maintain gold holdings despite recent rallies [8] - The earnings season is noted for strong performances from major companies like Amazon and Apple, with the dollar's strength potentially impacting future earnings [9] - Concerns are raised about the dollar's potential downward pressure due to deficit issues and tariff-related hearings as 2026 approaches [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials and Shipping - **Focus**: Trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, including shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][3][4] Core Insights 1. **Container Throughput Decline**: - Container throughput at key ports in China decreased by 8% week-over-week (WoW) and increased by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [3][6] - Port of Los Angeles reported an 11% decrease in import volume WoW, with flat YoY growth for week 45, following a 13% YoY increase in week 44 [3][9] 2. **Freight Rate Trends**: - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 7% WoW, marking the highest level since early September [4][13] - Specific rates for Shanghai to US West Coast and East Coast increased by 11% and 6% respectively [4][13] 3. **Chartering Market Dynamics**: - Containership charter rates remain firm, with demand outpacing available tonnage, particularly in the 2,500-4,200 TEU range [4][29] - The Asia feeder ship availability index decreased by 1% WoW, indicating tighter supply [4][33] 4. **Port Congestion and Fees**: - Port congestion persists, with an average vessel waiting time of approximately 3.4 days at the Port of Antwerp [5][31] - 4% of container ship port calls in the US since mid-October may have incurred additional fees, down from 7% in Q1 [5] 5. **International Freight Flights**: - The number of international freight flights increased by 11% YoY last week, indicating a recovery in air freight capacity [3][35] 6. **Railway Express Volumes**: - Outbound volume for the China-Europe and China-Asia Railway Express recorded a decline of 7% and an increase of 31% YoY respectively in September [3][27] Additional Important Insights - **Trade Flow Monitoring**: The report utilizes high-frequency data from various sources, including UBS Evidence Lab and the Ministry of Transport, to track trade flows and shipping dynamics [2][4] - **Macroeconomic Risks**: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a risk for China's industrial sector, with potential impacts on demand for industrial goods and import/export volumes [43] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that if preferential policies for high-tech companies are canceled, it could negatively affect earnings, alongside intense competition impacting market share [43] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China industrial and shipping sectors.

US-China Relations & Global Economy - De-escalation between the US and China is viewed as beneficial for global confidence and growth [1][2] - Tariffs have had a neutral impact on the bank's business, with increased financial market activity offsetting deferred investments [3][5] - Trade rerouting presents a significant opportunity for the bank, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa [6] - Trade is likened to water, finding a way to flow, creating opportunities for the bank [5][7] Regional Performance & Investment - Saudi Arabia is experiencing an investment boom, driving growth for the bank [8][9] - Egypt is on a path of recovery, contributing to the bank's positive outlook in North Africa and the GCC [10] - The bank has invested heavily in its wealth management presence in Dubai to serve the region [11] Credit Environment & Risk - The bank sees no signs of stress in its portfolio, despite some credit fears in the market [14] - Private credit is considered to be managed by professional investors, with potential for losses in a downturn, but not a systemic risk [15][16] - The bank remains positive for the rest of the year and into next year, citing robust credit environment and increasing trade [17][18] Digital Assets & Cryptocurrency - The bank distinguishes between cryptocurrencies (speculative instruments) and digital assets like stablecoins (lubricant for the digital economy) [20][21] - The digitization of money is considered a profound evolution, with all money eventually becoming digital [23] - The bank plays a critical role in bridging the old and new economies in digital assets, operating a leading institutional-grade cryptocurrency custodian marketplace [24][25] - Regulatory divergence poses a challenge in the digital asset space [25] - The bank has a cryptocurrency trading license but faces capital charge limitations on overnight positions [26]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Industrials** sector, particularly in the context of trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, covering shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Trade Flow Data**: - Container throughput at key ports in China decreased by **3% WoW** but increased by **6% YoY** last week, indicating a mixed performance in trade activities [3][6]. - Import volume estimates at the Port of Los Angeles showed a **27% WoW** increase and a **7% YoY** growth in week 37, recovering from a **16% YoY** decrease in week 36 [3][8]. 2. **Freight Rates**: - The SCFI spot container freight rate index rebounded by **2% WoW** in week 35, with freight rates between China and the US increasing by **17%** and **10% WoW** for USWC and USEC, respectively [4][11]. - The intra-Asia charter market remains stable, with the Asia feeder ship availability index rising by **6% WoW** and the chartering index increasing by **1% WoW** [4][29]. 3. **Port Congestion in Europe**: - High congestion levels persist at terminals in Antwerp, affecting productivity, while rail operations at the Port of Hamburg are experiencing delays due to construction [5][24]. - The global average waiting time for container ships over **8k TEU** decreased by **7% WoW** last week, indicating some improvement in port efficiency [5][25]. 4. **International Freight Flights**: - The number of international freight flights increased by **10% YoY** last week, reflecting a recovery in air cargo capacity [31][31]. 5. **Vietnam's Export Growth**: - Vietnam's exports rose by **19% YoY** in the first half of August, showcasing strong trade performance in the region [18][20]. 6. **Direct Shipping Volumes**: - Direct shipping volume from China to ASEAN/US increased by **5% WoW**, indicating a positive trend in trade routes [21][23]. Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Risks**: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a significant risk for China's industrial sector. A weak economy could lead to reduced demand for industrial goods and lower import/export volumes, impacting growth [37][37]. - **Policy Changes**: The potential cancellation of preferential policies, such as tax incentives for high-tech companies, could adversely affect earnings in the industrial sector [37][37]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Intense competition from domestic and foreign enterprises may lead to market share losses, further complicating the outlook for companies in the sector [37][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China Industrials sector amidst evolving trade dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Export Tracker** and the implications of **US-China trade relations** and **tariff changes** on Chinese exports, particularly in the context of recent developments in tariffs and trade dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Uncertainties**: There is an increase in tariff uncertainties with revised US reciprocal tariffs effective from August 7th and the announcement of 25% secondary tariffs on India. The deadline for a potential US-China tariff truce is August 12th, and if extended, the tariff differential between China and the Rest of the World (RoW) may narrow, impacting various products differently [1][2][3]. 2. **Impact on Exports**: The narrowing of tariff differentials could support China's exports to the US, particularly for goods that are not currently subject to reciprocal tariffs, such as semiconductors. Supply chain diversification remains a key factor for these products, although potential disruptions from pending Section 232 tariffs are noted [2][3]. 3. **Trade Flow Resilience**: Despite a decline in China's containership departures to the US by 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of August, the overall trade flow remains resilient. US imports from China saw a significant decline of 32.6% YoY in the week ending August 3rd, indicating a tentative trough in trade flows [3][30]. 4. **Cargo Throughput Trends**: Cargo throughput in China had a soft opening in August, with a decrease of 0.3% YoY, attributed to adverse weather conditions. This marks the first negative print since mid-June, raising concerns about potential demand shocks, particularly in light of weaknesses in the US labor market [4][23]. 5. **Volatility Anticipation**: The call anticipates increased volatility in exports as the fall approaches, driven by ongoing tariff concerns and potential demand fluctuations from neighboring ASEAN countries, where China acts as an intermediate supplier [4]. Additional Important Content - **Divergent Product Impact**: The impact of tariff changes is expected to vary across different product groups, with some categories potentially benefiting more than others from the narrowing tariff differentials [2][8][13]. - **Weather Events**: The mention of weather events affecting cargo throughput highlights the external factors that can influence trade dynamics, which may not be immediately apparent [4][23]. - **Long-term Supply Chain Shifts**: The ongoing dynamism in supply chain shifts, particularly in the consumer electronics sector, is emphasized as a critical factor that could continue to evolve in response to tariff changes and market conditions [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the China export market and the implications of US-China trade relations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials and Shipping - **Focus**: Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China, covering shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][36] Core Insights - **Container Throughput**: Container throughput at key ports in China increased by 3% week-over-week (WoW) and 5% year-over-year (YoY) in week 29, indicating an acceleration in front-loading [3][6] - **Port of Los Angeles**: Import volume estimates indicated a flat WoW change but a significant 17% YoY growth in week 31, following a 14% YoY decrease in week 30 [9] - **International Freight Flights**: The number of international freight flights rose by 12% YoY last week, compared to an 11% YoY increase in week 28 [30] Shipping Rates and Trends - **Freight Rates**: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 5% WoW, with transpacific rates declining by 2% and 13% for the West Coast and East Coast of the US, respectively [4][12] - **Container Ship Supply**: The supply of container ships in intra-Asia remained stable, with the Asia feeder ship availability index increasing by 2% WoW [4][15] Port Operations and Congestion - **Port Congestion**: High yard utilization continues at European ports, although overall waiting times for container ships have decreased by 22% WoW [5][24] - **Average Waiting Times**: Average waiting times at major North and South American ports remain around 5 days, with some ships still experiencing delays [26][31] Additional Insights - **China Expressway Truck Traffic**: Increased by 2% YoY last week, indicating a potential rise in domestic logistics activity [25] - **Vietnam Exports**: Vietnam's exports rose by 21% YoY in the second half of June, reflecting strong trade dynamics in the region [19] Risks and Considerations - **Macroeconomic Risks**: Investment downsizing at the macroeconomic level poses a key risk for China's industrial sector, with potential impacts on demand for industrial goods and import/export volumes [36] - **Policy Changes**: Cancellation of preferential policies, such as tax incentives for high-tech companies, could adversely affect earnings [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China industrial and shipping sectors, along with potential risks and opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Trade Policy & Geopolitical Risk - The US administration is employing a "maximum pressure campaign" to extract more concessions from trading partners [1] - The delay of deadlines to August 1st suggests a need for more political wins to portray trade negotiations as successful [2] - Sectoral tariffs, particularly Section 232 investigations into semiconductors, pharma, and metals, are looming and could be more consequential than reciprocal tariffs [2][4][5] - A fragile truce exists between the US and China, centered around rare earths and export controls, but either side could disrupt it [7][9] US-China Trade Relations - The US administration desires further trade talks with China and greater market access, but China's track record suggests potential disappointment [8][11] - Washington's conciliatory moves towards Beijing may be interpreted as weakness, leading China to push for more concessions [9] - President Trump has indicated a potential additional 10% tariff in response to perceived anti-American policies from BRICS nations [5] Corporate Strategy & Re-industrialization - Companies need a China strategy that considers the long-term and the historical challenges of US-China trade negotiations [11] - The US needs a strategy on rare earths to address its dependency on China [13] - Beyond tariffs, a broader array of support strategies is needed to re-industrialize the United States [15] - The removal of green energy measures from a recent bill hinders the creation of sustainable demand for nascent rare earth projects [14]