That’s why my model doesn’t necessarily conflict with Black-Scholes; instead, I’m just trying to narrow down the expected move range to probable suspects. With that in mind, here’s a bullish and bearish idea to consider this week.To make a long story short, Black-Scholes assumes a parametric world where most stock prices should fall within one standard deviation of the spot price (while accounting for volatility and days to expiration). However, this parametric world assumes volatility is an independent inp ...

Newmont (NEM) might not be the most exciting gold play out there but as the mining sector juggernaut, its robust performance has been nothing short of remarkable. January hasn’t even crossed the finish line but NEM stock is already up over 26% on a year-to-date basis. With a supply crunch stemming largely from both monetary and industrial demand, the fundamental narrative seems incredibly bullish. Long term, Newmont probably has room for growth and you certainly don’t want to short this incredible name. ...