J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 27 June 2025 FX Mid Year Outlook Ten questions (and answers) on currencies in 2H25 Outlook:Stay bearish USD. Valuation undershoots vs. rates/ equities, positioning, and a paucity of discrete catalysts are not a constraint for further weakness. Quality of USD carry has deteriorated and the dollar smile has widened. Historical data across DMs shows that FX hedge rebalancing should continue to act as a dollar depressant. Significant CNY strength is not a pre-condition for USD ...

YEN CARRY TRADE MARKED 2024 BOTTOM.WWIII SITUATION HAS MARKED 2025 BOTTOM.WHAT'S COMING NEXT IS PARABOLIC GAINS 🚀 https://t.co/P6r4qDFkls ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 PE行业的生存逻辑还能够成立吗？ 作者丨 陶辉东 来源丨 投中网 近日，X平台上的大V Restructuring发布一组数据称："黑石2015 Vintage的私募股权基金，只有0.85倍的DPI"。他还在推 文中写道："我猜没人会因为把钱投给黑石而被炒鱿鱼，但这显然很糟糕。" 2015年到现在刚好是十年，全球PE老大，DPI十年也到不了1。 对于其 他 GP同行来说，这或许有助于化解LP方面的压力：真不能怪我，你看连黑石都没办法嘛。 而从更长远的角度来看，一个很容易引出的扎心问题是，如果行业的最好水平都不过如此，PE行业的生存逻辑还能够成立 吗？或者更直白一点，LP们还有必要向这个资产类别投钱吗？ 其中之一是Blackstone Energy II，该基金总承诺资本是49.3亿美元，2015年2月开始投资，于2020年6月进入退出期。 黑石的一季报显示，截至2025年一季度末，考虑循环投资在内，该基金的总部署资本约为45.2亿美元。同时，其已实现投资 价值（Realized Investments Value）是47.5亿美元。 虽然该基金的已实现投资略微超过 ...

last year a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Japan nuked financial markets the world over and sent Bitcoin plunging 30% but if you thought that was bad Japan's monetary wos might be about to spill over again for an act two that could be much worse so stay tuned to find out why the market for Japanese government bonds could end up being the global fiat ponzies canary in the coal mine my name is Nick and you're watching the coin bureau when the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.1% to 0.25% 25% la ...

MIND Technology (MIND) Q1 2026 Earnings Call June 11, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Zach Vaughan - Vice PresidentRobert P. Capps - President & CEOMark Cox - Vice President & CFORoss Taylor - Partner and Portfolio Manager Conference Call Participants Tyson Bauer - Senior AnalystNone - Analyst Operator Greetings. Welcome to MIND Technologies First Quarter Fiscal twenty twenty six Earnings Conference Call. At this time, participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow t ...

J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 06 June 2025 Key Currency Views All beautiful things must come to an end Figure 1: Growth is projected to decline in the US and several countries in 2025, but there are several winners as well: Antipodeans, NOK, EUR and JPY in DM and EMEA in EM J.P. Morgan economists' growth forecasts for 2025 vs. actual in 2024 See page 48 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a res ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 4 June 2025 | 6:00PM HKT Hong Kong: Decoding the recent moves in HKD FX/Rates market Bottom line: USD/HKD spot hit the lower bound (strong side) of the band (7.75) in early May amid broad USD weakening (and the very sharp appreciation of the Taiwan Dollar specifically). This prompted Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervention to sell HKD and buy USD, more than tripling interbank liquidity in Hong Kong. The surge in interbank liquidity led to a sharp drop in front-end HK ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250603：复盘 200 年，贸易战何去何从？ 通过复盘自 1800 年至今 200 余年的全球贸易历史，以及结合近期东部沿 海省份"造船厂-船东-船公司-货代及外贸公司-实体制造业"外贸产业链 调研反馈，我们的研究表明： 首先，复盘全球贸易历史看，汇率、非关 税壁垒可能取代关税成为更加关键的"贸易交锋"工具。 其次，国内多 数外贸企业认为由于在根本矛盾上的冲突，中美贸易谈判过程未来或将 "一波三折"，企业可能需要持续控制对美出口风险敞口。 再次，如果加 征关税无法实现美方贸易竞争的主要目的，那么参考过去 200 年全球贸 易历史特别是 1970s-1990s 美日德贸易竞争阶段的美方举措，未来美国政 府可能在非关税壁垒、汇率等方面发起更多挑战。 最后，在控制对美出 口风险敞口的过程中，拓展非美出口、"出口转内销"、"出海"等关键手 段仍待企业端摸索落地方式，年内外贸前景仍面临高度不确定性。 宏观深度报告 20250602：人民币汇率：会否升 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250604 负 Carry 困境：海外机构如何破局—低利率 时代系列（五） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 负 carry 冲击进行时：负 carry 的成因通常源于资产负债久期错配与利 率波动：当负债端成本因短期利率抬升或刚性兑付压力上升，而资产端 因长期债券收益率被锁定或下行时，机构面临收益倒挂风险。海外资管 机构的历史经验显示，负 carry 风险集中爆发于特定利率周期，典型触 发场景通常在长期低利率环境后，经历利率快速上行周期。例如，2022 年美联储加息后，美国银行业因前期拉长债券久期，导致资产端收益率 被锁定于历史低位，而负债端存款利率随市场利率快速攀升，形成由于 负债端成本上行而造成的"利率上行+负 carry"压力。日本方面，自 1990 年代经济泡沫破灭后进入低增长、低通胀周期，政策利率持续下行。2016 年日本央行实施负利率政策后，10 年期日本国债收益率与存款利率出 现倒挂，形成由于资产端收益下行而造成的"利率下行+负 carry"环境。 以国内视角来看，当前我国面临与发达经济体历史情形相似的挑战 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].