Group 1 - The article outlines a comprehensive research framework training program titled "洞察价值，共创未来" (Insight Value, Co-create Future) scheduled for August 18-19 and August 25-26, 2025, focusing on various sectors including macroeconomics, consumption, finance, cycles, medicine, technology, and manufacturing [18][19]. - The training sessions will cover a wide range of topics, with specific time slots allocated for each area of research, such as food and beverage, internet applications, and renewable energy [14][15][16]. - The event will take place at the Guotai Junan Financial Bund Plaza in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of in-depth analysis across all sectors [18]. Group 2 - The training program is designed to enhance the research capabilities of analysts and is led by various chief analysts specializing in different fields, ensuring a comprehensive approach to industry analysis [8][10]. - Participants will have the opportunity to engage with experts in macroeconomic research, strategy, fixed income, and various sector-specific studies, fostering a collaborative learning environment [14][15][16]. - The program aims to equip analysts with the necessary tools and insights to navigate the complexities of the financial markets and identify potential investment opportunities [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the schedule and topics for the 2025 research framework training organized by Guotai Junan Securities, emphasizing a comprehensive approach across various sectors and inviting participation from interested parties [19]. Group 1: Event Schedule - The training sessions are scheduled for August 18-19 and August 25-26, covering a range of topics from macroeconomic research to sector-specific studies [14][19]. - The first two days focus on total, consumption, and financial sectors, while the latter two days will delve into cyclical, pharmaceutical, technology, and manufacturing sectors [19]. Group 2: Research Topics - The training will include sessions on food and beverage research, retail and service research, textile and apparel research, internet applications, home appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery research [15]. - Additional topics will cover macroeconomic research, strategy research, overseas strategy research, fixed income research, fund evaluation, financial engineering, small and medium-sized enterprises, and new stock research [15][16]. - The second week will feature non-metallic building materials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, biological medicine, cultural communication, electronics, and various engineering and manufacturing studies [16][17].

Group 1 - The upcoming tariff deadline on August 1 could lead to increased tariffs on major trading partners, including Europe, Canada, and Mexico, which together account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [1][2] - The potential impact of a 5% tariff increase on these partners could result in a negative shock to U.S. GDP that is twice as severe as previous measures against smaller economies [2] - The effects of tariffs are not limited to the macroeconomic level; different sectors in the U.S. stock market will experience varying impacts, necessitating continued attention to U.S. trade policy in investment strategies [2][5] Group 2 - The most likely economic scenario is "slowing growth with persistent inflation," with a probability of 40%, driven by the negative impacts of trade and immigration restrictions [4] - A second scenario of optimistic acceleration exists, with a 20% probability, contingent on easing trade and immigration policies or fiscal measures stimulating economic activity [4] - The third scenario, "economic slowdown triggered by trade," also holds a 40% probability, where further tariff increases could lead to a mild recession [4] Group 3 - In the fixed income market, an economic slowdown due to tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury prices as the market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve [5] - The U.S. stock market faces a complex situation; while slowing growth may not disrupt the upward trend of the S&P index, different sectors will react differently to trade policies [5] - Industrial and capital goods companies may benefit from domestic investment despite rising costs, while consumer goods and retail sectors face greater pressure due to increased import costs and limited pricing power [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Group 1 - The evolving tariff situation continues to create both pressure and opportunities for the market [2][5] - The most likely economic scenario is slow growth with persistent inflation, with a 40% probability assigned to this outcome [2] - The potential for a mild recession increases if tariffs are raised on key trading partners, as they account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [5] Group 2 - Fixed income markets are expected to see rising U.S. Treasury prices due to anticipated dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The stock market may experience a differentiated impact, with the S&P 500 likely to continue its upward trend despite growth slowdowns, driven by a weaker dollar and tax incentives for key sectors [3] - Industries sensitive to trade policies will face varying impacts, with industrial goods benefiting from domestic investment while consumer goods and retail sectors may struggle due to rising import costs [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a volatile and weakening pattern this week (7/7 - 7/11), with the stock - bond "seesaw" effect being the main trigger for market adjustments, along with tightened regulatory expectations and a convergent capital market in the second half of the week [1][6]. - In the past two weeks, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Although the market remains in a long - term mindset, the "fear of high prices" has not been alleviated. The trading logic mainly revolves around the capital market and the stock market, and the market is waiting for new signals [2][15]. - Looking ahead, factors such as the stock - bond linkage effect, the stability of capital interest rates, next week's economic and financial data, the July Politburo meeting, and the supply - demand game in the bond market are worthy of attention. In the third quarter, the bond market is still in a favorable environment, with long - term interest rates expected to fluctuate narrowly around 1.65%, and there is no need to overly worry about credit risks [3][28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Volatility and Weakening - This week, the bond market was under pressure. The stock - bond "seesaw" was the main adjustment logic, and regulatory expectations and capital convergence also suppressed the market. From Monday to Friday, bond yields showed different changes, with short - term adjustments being more significant, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Most yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) also increased [1][6]. 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - This week, the capital market was first loose and then tight, with capital interest rates rising moderately. After the cross - quarter period, the capital interest rate center entered a downward channel, and DR001 still ran below the policy interest rate. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed compared to the previous week, and the capital stratification remained at a low level, although overnight capital stratification increased in the second half of the week [8][10]. 3.3 Profit - Taking or Re - Layout Opportunity - In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown different trends. Last week, it was volatile and relatively strong, while this week it was volatile and weak due to the shift of the capital market to a neutral state and the rise of the stock market, leading to some short - term profit - taking [15]. - There are several characteristics: 1) When the capital interest rate "stepped down", the market did not follow. Except for the 50 - year Treasury bond, other long - term bond yields were mostly in a sideways state, and the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds and DR007 reached relatively high levels since the second quarter [16]. 2) The volatility of credit - type assets was greater than that of interest - rate bonds. Last week, different assets compressed spreads, but this week they entered an adjustment phase, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds having a greater adjustment amplitude [21]. 3) Behind the "V" - shaped trend of credit - type assets, the trading desks mainly composed of funds shifted from increasing allocations to taking profits. Last week, funds bought credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, but this week, their buying power weakened, and they started to reduce holdings in the second half of the week [22]. - The bond market's volatile pattern is due to the balance of long and short forces. The fundamental structural repair supports the bond market, while the monetary policy is in a dynamic balance between "moderate" and "loose". Although there are expectations for overall easing policies in the second half of the year, the probability of short - term implementation is relatively low [26]. 3.4 Factors to Watch in the Future - Stock - bond linkage effect: If the stock market is supported by factors such as tariff game mitigation, policy strengthening, or fundamental improvement, it will affect the bond market through changes in institutional liability and allocation power, increasing market volatility [3][28]. - Capital interest rates: Whether capital interest rates can remain at a low level needs to be observed. Next week, there will be more "variables" in the capital market, and how the central bank responds to various factors will be an important determinant of the stability of capital interest rates [3][28]. - Economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting: Next week's economic and financial data and the July Politburo meeting may release incremental signals, which are important windows for macro - policy adjustment [29]. - Supply - demand game in the bond market: In the third quarter, there may be a surge in government bond supply, which may disrupt the bond market, but considering the current coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, there may be no need for excessive concern. The allocation situation of configuration desks such as bank self - operations and insurance companies also needs attention [3][28][29]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus - Next week, a series of economic and financial data from China, Germany, the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan will be released, including import and export amounts, social financing scale, GDP, CPI, and PPI, which are worthy of attention [31].

Global Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments have been a core variable affecting global markets, with a pause in tightening announced in Q1 2025 after three rate hikes in 2024, leading to significant capital flow restructuring [3] - Emerging markets attracted over $80 billion in foreign capital inflows in the first four months of the year, a 65% increase compared to the same period last year, with Southeast Asian and Latin American markets being the focal points [3] - In contrast, developed economies in Europe and the US are still in an adjustment phase, with the Eurozone facing energy price volatility and weak manufacturing recovery, resulting in a 3.2% decline in the Euro against the Dollar [3] China Economic Performance - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.2%, driven by high-end manufacturing and the digital economy [4] - The production of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, industrial robots by 28%, and the core AI industry scale surpassed 5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards an innovation-driven model [4] - The A-share market exhibited structural characteristics, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rising by 12.6% this year, outperforming the broader market, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and biomedicine [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to establish a diversified asset allocation framework in response to the complex market environment [5] - The commodity market is undergoing structural changes, with rising demand for lithium and cobalt due to the increasing share of renewable energy, and global battery demand expected to exceed 2 TWh in 2025 [5] - Green bonds are emerging as a growth point, with global issuance expected to surpass $500 billion this year, and China accounting for 25% of this market [5] - Three main investment themes are suggested: globally competitive high-end manufacturing firms, service companies benefiting from consumption upgrades, and tech companies positioned to capitalize on the digital economy [5] Conclusion on Global Financial Landscape - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [6] - A scientific investment framework and a long-term perspective are essential for navigating the complexities of the financial waves in this uncertain era [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable environment with the central bank maintaining a moderately loose policy, but there are potential disturbances. The third quarter may still be a good window for long - positions, but the time may be later [4][5][37]. - Short - term central bank's total - volume easing policies are relatively limited, and whether the capital interest rate will be further relaxed is worth discussing. The pricing of funds and certificates of deposit in the new steady - state needs further observation [4][21][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance this Week - From June 30 to July 4, the bond market showed a volatile and strong pattern, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining. After the cross - quarter period, the funds were loose, and the overnight interest rate dropped to 1.3%. The medium - and short - term bonds performed strongly, and the interest rate of 50 - year treasury bonds decreased significantly. As of July 4, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 0.9BP, - 0.7BP, - 0.3BP, + 0.2BP, - 3.4BP respectively from last week, reaching 1.34%, 1.35%, 1.64%, 1.85%, 1.94% [1][8]. 3.2 Understanding the Boundary of Central Bank's Easing - **July Liquidity Situation**: In July, the liquidity usually shows a seasonal loosening trend. The reasons include that July is a small month for credit lending, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit decreases, and the seasonal return of wealth - management funds. However, there are concerns such as the impact of fiscal and tax periods, the pressure of government bond supply, and the increase in the maturity scale of open - market operations. The central bank's monetary policy attitude is crucial, and the marginal pricing and phased steady - state of funds and certificates of deposit may become clearer in the middle of the quarter [16][20]. - **Central Bank's Policy Tools**: In the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is low. It may prefer to use tools such as MLF renewal and outright reverse repurchase to inject liquidity. The central bank may restart treasury bond purchases during the peak of government bond supply, especially in August - September [3][21]. 3.3 Potential Disturbances in the Bond Market - **Fundamental Changes under Tariff Deduction**: After the Sino - US tariff mitigation, the external demand and export pressure have eased, the economic pessimistic expectations have been revised, and the long - term interest rate may face upward pressure. However, there is still uncertainty in subsequent tariff policies [26]. - **Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect**: If the fundamentals stabilize and the economic recovery expectation strengthens, the risk preference may shift, and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect may be more prominent, which may suppress the bond market [29]. - **Incremental Policy Tools**: It is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of wide - credit restoration under the strengthening of fiscal policies and the impact of new policy - based financial tools on the bond market. The new policy - based financial tools may have a scale of 50 billion yuan, and if deployed in the third quarter, they may boost the economy in the third and fourth quarters [33][34]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Focus - July 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in June, Japan's international reserves in June [38]. - July 8: Japan's current account balance in May, Germany's export value in May [38]. - July 9: China's CPI year - on - year and PPI year - on - year in June, Japan's M2 year - on - year in June [38]. - July 10: China's social financing data and credit data in June [38]. - July 11: Germany's CPI year - on - year in June, UK's trade balance in May [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Hua'an's View**: The bond market is favorable, but the odds of further decline in interest rates are limited. It is still advisable to adopt a trading mindset. The current market sentiment is rising, with investors both bullish and taking action. The fundamental factors still support the bond market, but the potential for interest rate decline is limited. Given the historical performance of the bond market in June, it is recommended to approach it with a trading perspective [2]. - **Seller's View**: More than half of the fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market, with a significant increase in sentiment this week [3]. - **Buyer's View**: The buyer sentiment is relatively cautious, with nearly 60% holding a neutral view. Overall, the fixed - income buyer's view is neutral with a slight bullish bias [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.43, indicating a predominantly bullish view, up from last week. The unweighted index is 0.54, an increase of 0.12 from last week. Among the institutions, 16 are bullish, 12 are neutral, and 1 are bearish. 55% of the institutions are bullish, 41% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - This week's buyer sentiment index is 0.23, showing a neutral - with - a - slight - bullish view, down 0.12 from last week. Among the institutions, 10 are bullish, 16 are neutral, and 1 is bearish. 37% of the institutions are bullish, 59% are neutral, and 4% are bearish [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include quarter - end wealth management repatriation and central bank monetary policy. Quarter - end wealth management repatriation poses resistance to credit spread compression and disturbs the credit market in the short term. Monetary policy easing may drive interest rate changes, but the room for further spread compression is limited [16]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - with - a - slight - bullish view. One institution is bullish and 11 are neutral. 8% of the institutions are bullish, and 92% are neutral [17]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 13, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts increased. The contract prices were 102.46 yuan, 106.18 yuan, 109.02 yuan, and 120.5 yuan respectively, up 0.01 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.09 yuan, and 0.72 yuan from last Friday. The contract holdings increased, while the trading volumes and trading - to - holding ratios decreased [19][20]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 13, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 3.62%, up 0.06 pct from last week and 0.10 pct from Monday, with a weekly average of 4.33%. The turnover rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds was 5.90%, up 0.04 pct from last week. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds decreased to 0.92% on June 13, down 0.07 pct from last week [31]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 13, except for the TF contract, the basis of other contracts narrowed. The net basis of the TS contract narrowed, while that of others widened. The IRR of the TS contract decreased, while that of others increased [36][39]. 3.2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 13, except for the TL contract, the inter - delivery spread of other contracts narrowed. The inter - variety spreads of all main contracts widened [45].

Group 1 - The current investment environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, driven by unpredictable large-scale tariff plans from the U.S. and rising inflation, alongside severe policy divergence among major global central banks [1] - The U.S. stock market is highly concentrated, with a few large-cap companies significantly contributing to excess returns; for instance, the S&P 500 index is projected to return 25% in 2024, but this drops to 20% when excluding Nvidia, and further to 12% when excluding the top seven stocks [1] - The fixed income market faces challenges as investors seek alternatives to equities; the private credit sector, particularly direct lending, has seen "dry powder" reach near historical highs, indicating potential future return reductions due to an oversupply of capital [1] Group 2 - Investors should consider fixed income investments that focus on total returns rather than just yield, utilizing active management strategies that allow for flexible allocation across regions and sectors in a highly differentiated policy environment [2] - Active fixed income fund managers possess deep market insights, which are crucial in the current uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape, enabling them to analyze macroeconomic trends, interest rate movements, and the financial health of specific companies or sectors [2] - These managers are adept at technical analysis, allowing them to identify real-time opportunities from market mismatches, thereby potentially reducing portfolio volatility and capturing risk-adjusted returns in the broader fixed income market [3] Group 3 - There are opportunities in inefficient and often overlooked non-core market segments, such as convertible bonds and AT1 securities, which may be missed by fund managers focused on single industries [3] - In a volatile market environment, characterized by rapid changes due to social media or sudden policy shifts, experience, diversification, and adaptability are essential for capturing subtle market discrepancies [3] - Seeking return-oriented fixed income assets managed by flexible and adaptive fund managers may help mitigate risks associated with current uncertainties while uncovering opportunities created by such uncertainties [3]