固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 止盈 or 布局窗口？ 1、多空交织，股债联动依然凸显，债市震荡走弱 本周（7/7-7/11），债市逆风，股债"跷跷板"成为市场触发调整的主要逻 辑，叠加周内严监管预期升温、后半周资金面有所收敛，也对行情形成一 定压制，全周呈现震荡走弱格局。 2、止盈还是再逢布局机会？ 近两周以来，债市震荡格局持续了一段时间，长端利率整体盘整的状态下， 市场进一步走出压缩利差行情，尽管市场仍维持在多头思维和长久期状态 下，但"恐高"的状态并未简单被宽松的资金平息，相应地，债市交易主 要围绕阶段性边际影响因素展开，故而上周与本周行情走出一定分化，本 周开始显现股债跷跷板带来的冲击。 这背后，也呈现出了几点特征：其一，资金利率"下台阶"的同时市场未 跟随下行，除 50 年国债利率在相对价值优势下吸引机构继续参与之外，其 他主要期限长债收益率更多偏横盘状态。其二，信用类资产波动幅度大于 利率债，上周不同品种资产出现"压利差"的特点，表现要好于国债，而 本周则转为调整行情，其中，二永债调整幅度更甚。其三，信用类资产"V" 型走势的背后，对应着以基金为主的交易盘从增配到止盈。 债 ...

Global Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments have been a core variable affecting global markets, with a pause in tightening announced in Q1 2025 after three rate hikes in 2024, leading to significant capital flow restructuring [3] - Emerging markets attracted over $80 billion in foreign capital inflows in the first four months of the year, a 65% increase compared to the same period last year, with Southeast Asian and Latin American markets being the focal points [3] - In contrast, developed economies in Europe and the US are still in an adjustment phase, with the Eurozone facing energy price volatility and weak manufacturing recovery, resulting in a 3.2% decline in the Euro against the Dollar [3] China Economic Performance - China's economy demonstrated strong resilience with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.2%, driven by high-end manufacturing and the digital economy [4] - The production of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, industrial robots by 28%, and the core AI industry scale surpassed 5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards an innovation-driven model [4] - The A-share market exhibited structural characteristics, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rising by 12.6% this year, outperforming the broader market, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and biomedicine [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to establish a diversified asset allocation framework in response to the complex market environment [5] - The commodity market is undergoing structural changes, with rising demand for lithium and cobalt due to the increasing share of renewable energy, and global battery demand expected to exceed 2 TWh in 2025 [5] - Green bonds are emerging as a growth point, with global issuance expected to surpass $500 billion this year, and China accounting for 25% of this market [5] - Three main investment themes are suggested: globally competitive high-end manufacturing firms, service companies benefiting from consumption upgrades, and tech companies positioned to capitalize on the digital economy [5] Conclusion on Global Financial Landscape - The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [6] - A scientific investment framework and a long-term perspective are essential for navigating the complexities of the financial waves in this uncertain era [6]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 债市或仍在做多窗口 证券研究报告 固收周度点评 20250706 债市震荡走强，机构继续博弈利差，50 年国债下至 1.94% 本周（6/30-7/4）债市维持震荡偏强格局，利率债收益率多数下行，跨季 后资金宽松，隔夜利率下至 1.3%水平，中短端表现强势；机构继续挖掘利 差行情，50 年国债利率下行幅度较大，相对价值优势吸引交易盘继续参与， 当然，债基极致拉久期的背后，市场也会在思考背后潜在的扰动因素。截 至 7/4，1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y、50Y 国债收益率较上周分别变动-0.9BP、-0.7BP、 -0.3BP、+0.2BP、-3.4BP 至 1.34%、1.35%、1.64%、1.85%、1.94%。 如何理解央行宽松的边界？ 首先，7 月流动性有哪些关切？ 一是财政和税期的扰动，7 月是传统缴税大月，月中税期缴款可能消耗超 储，财政存款沉淀将阶段性抽离流动性。二是政府债供给压力，7 月国债 发行节奏平稳的同时，地方债供给可能提速，尤其是新增专项债发行，预 估政府债供给压力可能高于季节性水平，对资金面或带来一定扰动。 对应的，观察信贷投放、存款搬家，及理财规模的边际变化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Asian emerging market credit fundamentals are currently favorably valued due to stimulus policies from China and other Asian countries to offset trade war impacts [1] - Asian central banks are easing monetary policies, contributing to low credit spreads in the region [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a cautious outlook for Asian credit markets as the Federal Reserve balances avoiding recession and controlling inflation [1] Group 2 - Local currency government bonds in Asia are supported by both fundamental and technical factors, with local buyers seeking to increase investments in these perceived risk-free securities [2] - Despite low yield levels, there is optimism for Asian local currency bonds due to favorable basic and technical factors, with some Asian emerging markets experiencing slowing inflation [2] - The expectation is that local central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies without significant concerns over inflation, especially in the context of potential economic slowdowns [2] Group 3 - The strength of the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken by Q1 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar index [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to benefit certain Asian local currency bond markets, with positive expectations for bond prices and exchange rates [3] - India is projected to be one of the least affected countries by tariff impacts, with a favorable outlook for the Indian bond market despite recent gains [3]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 超半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-16 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：债市顺风，赔率有限，仍重交易 近期市场情绪升温，投资者看多也在做多，市场情绪（买方与卖方） 上升至年初至今最高位，同时投资者选择拉长久期与加杠杆，基本面依然 对债市有利（社融由政府债支撑、物价依然偏弱），大行买短债也成为趋 势，可关注后续宽货币的政策信号，但在债市顺风环境下，利率整体下行 的赔率有限，从曲线形态看长债较历史极值空间约为 3bp，同时跨半年环 境下拉长久期是机会也是风险，历史上 6 月债市整体涨跌参半，仍宜以交 易思维对待。 ⚫ 卖方观点：超半数固收卖方看多债市 ...

在这一波动的环境下，股票市场估值处在高位。美国股市在很大程度上依赖少数几家市值极高的公 司来实现超额回报。以2024年为例，作为美股代表的标普500指数全年回报率为25%，若剔除英伟达这 一表现突出的科技股，该指数在同一时期的回报率则为20%。如果再剔除"美股七雄"，回报仅为12%。 对这种头部集中度极高的市场敞口，虽然在某些时期可能带来回报，但风险也极大。 固定收益市场并非没有隐患。在寻找股市替代方案的过程中，固定收益投资者往往会转向私募信 用，然而其中占比最大的中间市场直接贷款领域，其"待投资资本"（dry powder）已接近历史高位。我 们认为这可能是一个警示信号，即过多资金流入而投资机会有限，可能预示着未来的回报率将降低。 不确定性是当前投资环境的一个明显特征。全球正在努力应对美国反复无常的大规模关税计划，如 此旋风式的操作更加凸显了这种不确定性。此外，通胀上升正成为常态，而全球主要央行的政策分化也 达到了几十年来最严重的程度。事实上，上世纪70年代以来，央行之间还从未如此长期地步调不一，因 此，这又增添了一层不确定性，尤其对于那些在70年代之后的市场参与者而言，这一动态是全新的。 此外，该领域的主 ...

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 11 日 王兴 通信与军工行业首席研究员 座机：021-38476737 邮箱：wangxing@htsc.com 沈娟 银行与证券行业首席研究员 座机：0755-23952763 邮箱：shenjuan@htsc.com 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 沈娟 银行与证券行业首席研究员 座机：0755-23952763 邮箱：shenjuan@htsc.com 今日热点 通信：CPO 观察：博通的进展 近期我们观察到博通的 CPO（光电共封装）取得积极进展：1）5 月博通推 出单通道 200G 的 CPO 产品系列；2）6 月博通宣布交付 Tomahawk 6 （TH6）交换芯片，除支持常规电交换机外，TH6 亦可提供 CPO 版本。我 们认为博通与英伟达均在 CPO 领域加速推进，预计该类科技巨头厂商将共 同推动 CPO 技术的落地，促进产业链生态的成熟。我们看好 CPO 产业发展 前景，相关光无源器件、光芯片、光引擎厂商有望迎接机遇，推荐：太辰 光、天孚通信；建议关注：中际旭创、新易盛、华工科技。 风险提示：CPO 产业进展不及预期；AI ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 可考虑牛陡交易 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 高频数据跟踪：生产端，各行业开工率分化。需求端，乘用车厂家批发及厂家零售 同比增速高位回落。商品房成交面积同比增速处于较大波动中，6 月 8 日当周 30 大 中城市商品房销售面积下滑，同比增速为-33%左右。出口指数方面，SCFI、 CCFI 综合指数分别变动 8.1%、3.3%。价格端，原油价格上行，铜铝价格分化； 煤炭价格分化，动力煤活跃合约期货结算价与上周持平，焦煤活跃合约期货结算价 上行。中游方面，建材综合价格指数、水泥指数小幅下行，玻璃指数上行。螺纹钢 产量维持小幅下滑，库存较上周小幅下滑，期货价格抬升。下游消费端，蔬菜价格 上行，水果、猪肉价格均下滑。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the credit bond market had an independent performance. By the end of the month, the valuation yields of urban investment bonds with implicit ratings from 1 - 5 years reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - Short - duration spreads hit new lows, while term spreads and grade spreads still have room. The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. There is still room for compression in grade spreads and term spreads [2]. - Currently, the coupon advantage of credit bonds remains, but the valuation fluctuation risk has started to increase. The main reasons for the stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May were the decline in the central funds rate and the increased demand for credit bond allocation due to deposit transfer. However, overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter have a growing impact on the market [3]. - In the future, short - duration spreads of various implicit ratings have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. At the same time, the valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. - Strategically, investors are advised to adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for riding returns, and also consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. The annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Bond Market Performance in May - The valuation yields of 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. The 3 - year AA +, AA, and AA(2) implicit ratings had grade spreads of 7bp, 16bp, and 27bp compared to AAA, with 5 - 10bp compression space compared to historical lows. The historical quantiles of term spreads of 3 - year and 5 - year varieties compared to 1 - year varieties of the same rating were still in the 10% - 20% range [2]. Reasons for Market Performance and Future Outlook - The stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May was due to the decline in the central funds rate and increased credit bond allocation demand from deposit transfer. But overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter had a growing impact. At the end of May, fund redemptions caused significant bond - market fluctuations [3]. - Short - duration spreads have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. The valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. Investment Strategy - Adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for more riding returns. Also, consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. Based on the end - of - month yield curve, the annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 难有趋势行情，关注曲线交易机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2021 年以来债市延续的"资产荒"的逻辑在今年并不适用，债市整体呈现"负债荒"，负债缺 口和负债结构是今年债市交易的主线，当前市场缺少负债稳定的配置盘力量。债市难以趋势性 上行，在基本面稳定但仍有潜在不确定性的情况下，持续的负 carry 才能推动长端利率趋势性 回调，而二季度资金价格收紧概率不高。但债市近期缺乏赔率，模型显示 10bp 的正 carry 可拉 动银行间债市杠杆率抬升 0.1-0.2 个百分点左右。建议 10 年期国债收益率在 1.65%以上、30 年国债收益率在 1.9%以上逢调配置，负债稳定的机构可适当关注 3 年以上信用债票息机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% cjzqdt11111 2025-05-22 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2 ...