Onex Corporation (ONEX.F) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Onex Corporation (ONEX.F) - **Date of Conference**: September 04, 2025 - **Speaker**: Bobby LeBlanc, CEO Key Changes and Developments - Focus on intellectual honesty regarding competitive areas and restructuring human capital accordingly [6] - Successful fundraising across various business units, including OP, OnCap, and Credit [7] - Introduction of three new board members with relevant skill sets [7] Competitive Advantages - Strong organizational culture emphasizing intellectual honesty and investor orientation [8] - Focus on mid-cap private equity, financial services, industrials (especially aerospace), and business services as core competitive areas [8] - Significant growth in structured credit business, particularly CLOs, moving from mid-20s to seventh or eighth globally in issuance [10] Financial Performance and NAV - NAV growth has been decent over the past two years, with a compounded growth rate of 15% over the last five years [20] - Current NAV includes approximately $5.4 billion in private equity assets, which are undervalued in the market [16] - Share buybacks totaling $2.5 billion since 2020 have contributed to per-share NAV growth [18] Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Need for better organization of businesses to ensure revenue supports cost structures [13] - Aim to reduce capital intensity in asset management, potentially lowering the percentage of fund commitments [14] - Addressing the discount to NAV and improving market perception of the company's value [15][17] Market Environment and Fundraising - Current M&A environment for private equity is improving, but challenges remain due to pricing uncertainties and a sluggish IPO market [27][28] - OnCap raised 70% more third-party capital than the previous fund, aiding revenue growth [29] - Credit platform showing strong AUM growth, with expectations for continued scaling [35] Future Outlook and Strategy - Focus on successful fundraising and maintaining an investment-first culture [48] - Plans to close the gap between market value and intrinsic value through strategic capital deployment and share buybacks [46] - Emphasis on creating enterprise value and attracting third-party capital in targeted sectors [34][48] Conclusion - Onex Corporation is positioned to leverage its strong culture, competitive advantages, and recent fundraising successes to enhance shareholder value and close the valuation gap in the coming years [48]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of extending the duration of government-guided funds is emerging, with many new funds set to last over 10 years, indicating a shift towards more patient capital in the venture capital industry [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Duration Extension - The typical duration of RMB venture capital funds has historically been around 7-8 years, limiting their ability to support technology projects until they reach significant growth [1]. - By 2025, many newly established guiding funds in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are now set for durations exceeding 10 years, with some reaching up to 20 years [1]. - Existing guiding funds are also modifying management rules to extend their durations, with some second-phase funds extending their terms compared to the first phase [1]. Group 2: Impact on Sub-Funds - While mother funds are extending their durations, the actual duration of sub-funds has not significantly changed, typically remaining around 10-12 years due to investment and exit periods [2][3]. - Sub-funds generally have investment periods of 3-4 years, with few extending to 5 years, and their investment strategies remain unchanged despite the overall fund duration extension [3][4]. - The need for a balance in the duration of sub-funds is emphasized, as overly long durations could lead to complacency in fund management [2]. Group 3: Investor Expectations and Strategies - Limited Partners (LPs) are increasingly demanding quicker returns, leading to a focus on projects that can generate rapid capital returns [4][5]. - The emphasis on portfolio diversification has increased, with funds seeking a mix of fast-return projects and longer-term investments [4]. - The management fee structures are also being affected, as longer fund durations do not necessarily translate to higher management fees due to the nature of fee negotiations [4]. Group 4: Industry Sentiment and Future Challenges - The extension of fund durations is seen as a positive signal, fostering a more patient investment approach within the industry [6][7]. - There is a recognition of the challenges associated with exits, as unresolved exit issues could lead to a backlog of projects, creating a "dam" effect in the market [6]. - The alignment of fund durations with the tenure of local officials poses a challenge, as officials may prioritize short-term investment progress over long-term strategies [6].

Venture Capital Investment Strategies - Venture capital firms should consider taking companies public now, as current business models are creating high-margin businesses [1][19] - New allocators or investors need access to top decile managers to consistently achieve returns above the Public Market Equivalent (PME); otherwise, even top quartile performance is insufficient [1] - The venture industry is seeing a shift in partnership dynamics, with increased changes in partnerships over the past two years, driven by factors such as reduced compensation and a desire to avoid current market challenges [10] - The industry should be wary of multi-stage platforms, as the large fund sizes make it difficult to achieve the same returns as in the past [12] - The industry should be aware that thematic funds are approached agnostically, focusing on finding great partners with aligned skill sets rather than adhering to specific mandates [20] Endowment Management - Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) manages $4 billion on behalf of the university, with 85% allocated to equity and 15% to fixed income [6] - CMU targets 50% of its portfolio in privates (venture capital, private equity, real estate, natural resources, private credit) and the other 50% in hedge funds and liquids (public equities and fixed income) [6] - CMU is overweight venture by 5-10 percentage points compared to most endowments of its size and underweight hedge funds and real assets [6] - Endowments are facing headwinds, particularly those that may be subject to taxation, which could impact their draw and investment strategies [11] Venture Capital Fund Performance & Metrics - The median Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for mature venture capital funds is about 8% net, with the top quartile at 15%, and a Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC) of about 25x [6] - Top quartile Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) from 15-year vintage funds (1998-2015) is 18x [6] - A key question for new allocators is whether they will have access to top decile managers, as only those consistently achieve returns above the PME [6] - The industry should be aware that a 6x gross return is needed to achieve a 4x net return, considering fees of 25% and 30% for early-stage funds and 2% and 20% for growth funds [13]

Group 1: Core Views - The venture capital industry is currently in a phase of fundraising recovery and exploring diverse exit channels, with patient capital accelerating its entry into the market [1][3] - Full-chain collaboration is identified as a key strategy for breaking through challenges in the industry [1][7] Group 2: Fundraising Market Trends - The overall fundraising market is in a recovery phase, with a projected decline of 20.8% in 2024, narrowing to 2.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a gradual restoration of market confidence [4] - The role of state-owned guiding funds has shifted from a "招商思维" (investment attraction mindset) to an "产业构建思维" (industry construction mindset), focusing on matching industrial resources [4] - Patient capital is becoming a significant trend, with long-term funds from banks and insurance companies increasingly entering the venture capital space, exemplified by Guangzhou Industrial Investment's establishment of 9 financial asset investment companies totaling 150 billion [4] Group 3: Exit Strategies - Innovation and balance in exit strategies are crucial for venture capital institutions, with a focus on achieving a Distribution to Paid-In (DPI) ratio of at least 1 for Limited Partners (LPs) [5][6] - The diversification of exit channels is showing positive results, with the introduction of S funds as a new exit route gaining traction among institutions [6] - The current hot IPO market in Hong Kong is viewed as a short-term liquidity solution rather than a long-term stable option, while reforms in the A-share market present new opportunities for unprofitable hard tech companies [6] Group 4: Industry Development and Collaboration - Long-termism and value investing are emphasized as core principles for overcoming industry challenges, with a focus on high Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to support overall fund DPI [7] - Full-chain collaboration is being adopted by many state-owned enterprises, leveraging mother funds to attract social capital and focusing on key nodes in the industrial chain [7] - Suggestions for future industry development include structural problem-solving, embracing change while maintaining core principles, and deepening engagement in hard tech sectors [7]

Group 1: Market Trends - The fundraising market is in a recovery phase, with a projected decline of 20.8% in 2024, narrowing to 2.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a gradual restoration of market confidence [2] - Patient capital is becoming a significant trend, with long-term funds like banks and insurance companies accelerating their entry into the venture capital space, exemplified by the establishment of 9 financial asset investment companies (AIC) with a total scale of 150 billion yuan [2][3] - The shift in the role of state-owned guiding funds from "招商思维" (investment attraction mindset) to "产业构建思维" (industry construction mindset) is notable, focusing on matching industrial elements rather than short-term metrics [2] Group 2: Exit Strategies - Innovation in exit strategies is crucial, with a focus on balancing DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) and IRR (Internal Rate of Return) as a core challenge for venture capital institutions [3] - The adoption of diverse exit channels is showing initial success, with S funds becoming a significant part of investment strategies, providing a new exit route for general partners (GPs) [3] - The current IPO market in Hong Kong is viewed as a "first aid channel" rather than a "golden channel," with differing opinions on its long-term stability [4] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Emphasizing long-termism and value investing is seen as essential for overcoming industry challenges, with a focus on high IRR to support overall fund DPI [5] - Full-chain collaboration is becoming a key strategy for many state-owned enterprises, leveraging mother funds to attract social capital and focusing on critical nodes in the industrial chain [5] - Suggestions for future industry development include structural problem-solving, embracing change while maintaining core principles, and deepening engagement in hard technology sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance benchmarks of private equity funds in China, highlighting the challenges and expectations of Limited Partners (LPs) regarding return timelines and the importance of data transparency in the industry [4][5][7]. Group 1: Fund Performance Metrics - The report indicates that achieving a DPI (Distributions to Paid-In capital) of 1 within 7 years is considered excellent, while 9 years is the norm, and 13 years is a warning sign for fund performance [14][27]. - For funds established for 5 years, an excellent DPI can reach 50%, while those in the bottom quartile may take approximately 13 years to break even [14][27]. - The performance data from 2008 to 2023 shows that the top quartile funds have consistently outperformed, with a DPI of 2.03 in 2008 and declining to 0.00 by 2023 [15]. Group 2: Comparison with U.S. Funds - The article compares the performance of Chinese VC funds with U.S. VC funds, revealing similar return timelines: top quartile U.S. funds take 7-8 years to break even, while median funds take around 9 years [16][27]. - The findings suggest that the perceived slowdown in DPI is not unique to China but reflects a broader trend in the VC industry [18]. Group 3: Importance of Data Transparency - The report emphasizes the need for improved data transparency in the Chinese private equity market, as the current lack of transparency complicates the accurate assessment of fund performance [7][28]. - The Benchmark report serves as a critical tool for LPs to evaluate their investments and assess new funds, highlighting the importance of reliable data in establishing industry standards [8][28]. Group 4: Performance Realization - The article introduces the "performance realization degree" metric, which measures how much of the total value (TVPI) has been returned to LPs as cash (DPI), indicating that Chinese funds have a higher realization degree compared to their U.S. counterparts [22][28]. - The findings suggest that while the overall performance of Chinese funds appears strong, the realization of returns in cash is crucial for true value creation [28].

Core Viewpoint - The private equity (PE) industry is facing significant challenges, as evidenced by the low Distribution to Paid-In (DPI) ratios of major funds, raising questions about the sustainability of the industry's business model [1][2][9]. Group 1: DPI Performance - Blackstone's 2015 vintage private equity fund has a DPI of only 0.85, which is concerning for the industry as a whole [1][2]. - Other major funds also show low DPI figures, such as KKR's 2016 vintage at 0.90 and Hellman & Friedman’s 2018 vintage at 0.13, indicating a broader trend of underperformance [9]. - Blackstone's flagship fund, BCP VII, has a DPI that is the worst in its history, with a "gross DPI" of only 1.06 after ten years, compared to better performances from older funds [9][10]. Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Challenges - The current environment shows that older funds are struggling to exit investments, while new funds are having difficulty deploying capital, leading to a stagnation in the industry [8][11]. - Blackstone's latest flagship fund, BCP IX, has only called 2.9 million USD, primarily for management fees, indicating a lack of active investment [11]. Group 3: Revenue Models and Industry Shifts - Despite low DPI, Blackstone's private equity division generated 2.64 billion USD in distributable earnings in 2024, a 39.7% increase, suggesting a shift away from reliance on carry income [15][20]. - Blackstone's management fee income has increased significantly, while carry income has not kept pace, indicating a strategic move towards a more stable revenue model [18][19]. - KKR is also transitioning its business model to focus on dividends rather than carry, which has led to a significant increase in assets under management (AUM) and market value [22][23]. Group 4: Industry Outlook and Evolution - The VC/PE industry is entering a low-margin era, with many firms struggling to maintain profitability amid increasing operational costs and tighter fee structures [25][26]. - The traditional business model of relying on carry for income is being challenged, prompting firms to explore alternative strategies, such as focusing on operational capabilities and dividend income [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - Australian Capital emphasizes the importance of DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) as a core demand from LPs (Limited Partners) and has developed a unique investment strategy focused on early-stage investments in China, balancing risk and return through careful fund management and exit strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Australian Capital has adopted a strategy of controlling fund sizes between 200 million to 300 million RMB, with a minimum of 15 projects per fund to balance risk and return effectively [3]. - The firm prioritizes quick capital recovery through exit strategies that do not primarily rely on IPOs, achieving a DPI of 1 in four years and a 100% exit in six years with an IRR exceeding 30% for its first fund [3][4]. - The company has developed a unique "probability theory" for investments, focusing on early-stage projects and aiming to increase the success rate of investments to 50% by applying technical logic to project selection [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Management and Structure - Australian Capital maintains a higher proportion of its own capital in funds, with self-funding ratios reaching 10%-20% since 2015, aiming to increase this to 30%-50% to reduce external fundraising pressure [7][8]. - The firm follows a stable income structure where self-investment returns exceed management fees and fund carry, which is considered a robust model for GP (General Partner) profitability [7][8]. - The transition from a trustee management model to an active investment model is seen as essential for survival in a changing market, with a projected completion timeline of 3-5 years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the prevalence of "downrounds" in the current investment landscape, indicating a significant decline in valuations for many startups, with around 70% of newly financed projects experiencing valuation reductions of up to 60% compared to previous rounds [1][3][4]. Group 1: Downrounds and Market Sentiment - "Downround" has become a common term in the primary market, with many investors noting that new financing rounds often result in substantial valuation cuts [1][3]. - The reasons for downrounds include previously inflated valuations and stronger negotiation power from new investors, particularly state-owned or strategic entities [1][3]. - The current market reflects a return to rationality, with investors generally unwilling to accept excessively high valuations due to increased uncertainty [1][3]. Group 2: Challenges in Exiting Investments - The difficulty in exiting investments has led to a cautious approach among investors, contributing to the cycle of downrounds and poor exit conditions [3][4]. - Many funds, even those managed by top-tier General Partners (GPs), are reporting disappointing returns, with some funds yielding less than traditional savings accounts [3][4]. - The reliance on IPOs for exits has created a "bottleneck" in the market, as the slowdown in IPO activity has left many projects unable to exit successfully [4][5]. Group 3: Tensions Between LPs and GPs - The current exit difficulties have intensified tensions between Limited Partners (LPs) and GPs, particularly for funds established during the 2015-2016 "entrepreneurship wave" [4][5]. - Many LPs are unwilling to agree to extensions for fund durations, especially when the funds have not achieved a Distribution to Paid-In (DPI) ratio of 1 or higher [5][7]. - Some LPs have implemented strict exit clauses in their agreements, allowing them to demand forced exits under certain conditions [6][7]. Group 4: Adjustments in Investment Strategies - In response to the challenging exit environment, many investment firms are revising their exit strategies, with some focusing on early-stage investments and prioritizing returns to LPs [9][10]. - The establishment of dedicated exit committees within firms has become more common, reflecting the increasing importance of exit strategies in investment decision-making [11][12]. - Firms are also hiring specialized personnel to manage exits, indicating a shift towards more structured and strategic approaches to navigating the current market conditions [12][14].

"又到了每年盘点子基金表现情况的时候，可以用四个字来形容：惨不忍睹。 即使是偏头部 GP的基金，也有几支收益还不如余额宝 。 IRR尚且如此，DPI更是没戏，昔日的明星项目、 独角兽，估值普遍回调和打折，并且收不回来钱，老股转让都没人接。 "某LP人士告诉母基金 研究中心。 退出困境下， LP与GP的矛盾正在激化。 在当下这个时间点，踩着 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 1 6年的"双创"浪潮募集设立的基金正进入到了退出的关键阶 段。GP现阶段正面临着，大批存量已投项目等待退出，DPI成为悬在头上的达摩克利斯之剑。 在退出策略上，国内一直以来高度依赖IPO的单一退出路径。在国内，此前创投基金9 0%以上 项目退出主要通过IPO实现，随着IPO节奏放缓，一级市场出现退出"堰塞湖"。 而对 GP而言，也有苦衷——" 既要收益回报，又要招商引资，还要产能落地 ……现在的这种 退出形势，我们作为管理人只能积极寻找退出机会同时给基金做延期。在向LP征求延期意见的 时候，LP对我们灵魂拷问：延了就能退吗？延到什么时候能拿回来钱？还有国资LP对我们发 函，不同意延期，就是要退出。"某北京VC机构合伙人李力（化名）对母基金研究中 ...