摘要/ 机构情绪明显下行 上周为啥大跌？ 一个原因是机构情绪的回落！ 民生证券构建的个人和机构投资情绪指标显示，本周(20250317-20250321)个人投资情绪维 持高位，机构投资情绪周三开始明显下行；这种投资者情绪组合意味着市场未来或阶段偏弱 走势。 对于A股而言，科技股引领的"东升西落"阶段结束，市场再度回到对于基本面的定价。 二是"四月决断"马上到来！这个时候要做好防守！ 进入 4 月，上市公司开始集中披露业绩报告，同时两会和政治局会议召开对全年经济发展作 出指引，市场会基于微观企业盈利和宏观政策基调对股价进行修正。科技主题分支往往处于 新技术渗透初期，盈利兑现度不足，因此在3月末、4月初可能会阶段性退潮。 | 小盘成长相对沪深 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 胜摩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300超额收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

3月24日至3月30日当周重磅财经事件一览，以下均为北京时间： 重磅事件方面，中国发展高层论坛、中关村论坛年会、苹果上海开发者活动或推出国行苹果AI、中国央行进行最新MLF操作，美俄在沙特就乌克兰问题举行双 边磋商； 数据方面，关注美联储最爱通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数、美国3月PMI初值和四季度GDP终值； 财报方面，AH股上市公司密集公布财报，市场聚焦比亚迪、中国电信、泡泡玛特、海底捞、快手、顺丰控股等。 中国发展高层论坛2025年年会，欧美商界高管赴北京参会 中国发展高层论坛2025年年会计划于3月23日至24日在北京召开，主题为"全面释放发展动能，共促全球经济稳定增长"。 周五公布美联储最青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数，市场预计美国2月PCE物价指数同比增幅维持在2.5%的水平不变，核心PCE将从2.6%反弹至2.7%。此外， 美国3月PMI初值和四季度GDP终值、密歇根大学1/5年通胀预期终值都将于当周公布。 年会将围绕宏观政策与经济增长，改革激发增长新动能，提振消费与扩大内需，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，人工智能普惠包容发展，构建现代金融体系 服务实体经济发展，大健康产业高质量发展，人口结构 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3379.83 points (+0.41%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 10861.16 points (+0.33%), and the ChiNext Index at 2204.03 points (+0.19%) [2][4] - The total trading volume in both markets fell below 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in market activity [2][4] Sector Performance - The majority of the Shenwan first-level industry indices saw gains, with the leading sectors being Beauty and Personal Care (+4.78%), Defense and Military (+2.26%), and Food and Beverage (+1.92%) [6][7] - Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Electronics (-0.32%), Automotive (-0.32%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (-0.13%) [6][7] Trading Statistics - A total of 2,878 stocks rose, while 2,280 stocks fell, with 66 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 5 stocks hitting the limit down [5] - The trading volume was recorded at 1,118.71 million shares, with a total turnover of 14,818.96 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [8]. Core Viewpoints - The market experienced a significant opening drop but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.41% at 3379.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.33% at 10861.16 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.19% at 2204.03 points [2][4]. - The trading volume in both markets fell below 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in market activity [2]. - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the beauty care, defense, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while electronics, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors saw declines [2][6]. Market Performance Summary - The number of stocks that rose was 2,878, while 2,280 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. - The total trading volume was 1,118.71 million shares, with a total turnover of 14,818.96 billion yuan [5]. - The beauty care sector had the highest increase at 4.78%, followed by defense at 2.26% and food and beverage at 1.92% [6]. Sector Performance Summary - The top-performing sectors included beauty care, defense, and food and beverage, while the bottom sectors were electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - The beauty care sector's strong performance suggests potential investment opportunities, while the declines in electronics and automotive sectors may indicate risks [6][7].

Group 1 - DeepSeek announced the opening of the DeepGEMM code library, designed for efficient FP8 general matrix multiplication, with significant discounts on API calls during off-peak hours [2] - The China Securities Finance Corporation will no longer disclose margin financing and securities lending data, which will now be available on the China Securities Data Company's website [2] - China International Capital Corporation and China Galaxy Securities responded to merger rumors, stating they have not received any information regarding a merger from government departments or shareholders [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.01%, while major Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains [5] - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 1.71% and France's CAC40 up 1.15% [5] - The Asia-Pacific stock indices had varied performances, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.25% and New Zealand's S&P 50 up 1.18% [5] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 548.7 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 9.8 billion yuan [9] - The Hong Kong government projected a budget deficit of 87.2 billion HKD for the 2024/2025 fiscal year, with an expected economic growth rate of 2%-3% for 2025 [9] - Analysts predict a 5% economic growth target for this year's National People's Congress, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies [10] Group 4 - The A-share market saw a rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.02% and significant gains in the steel and robotics sectors [12] - The Hong Kong market experienced a surge, with the Hang Seng Index up 3.27% and notable increases in technology and real estate stocks [12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized support for Chongqing's economic and financial development [13] Group 5 - The Hong Kong government announced reforms to enhance the stock market, including the introduction of a "Tech Enterprise Line" and adjustments to dual primary listing requirements [14] - Xiaomi launched its end-to-end smart driving system and announced the release of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra smartphone with a 6000mAh battery [15][16] - The IPO of Mixue Ice Cream set a new record in Hong Kong with a subscription rate of 5125 times, raising 1.77 trillion HKD [16] Group 6 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced that from March 1, 2025, financial institutions in Hong Kong and Macau will no longer be required to meet a total asset threshold of 2 billion USD to invest in insurance companies [18] - The China Securities Association reported that 137 asset-backed securities plans were newly registered in January 2025, totaling 112.26 billion yuan [18] Group 7 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiated a pilot program for public sector vehicles in ten cities, aiming to promote the use of new energy vehicles [22] - The Hong Kong government plans to allocate 1 billion HKD to establish an artificial intelligence research institute [22] Group 8 - The U.S. Senate confirmed Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative [24] - The German Gfk consumer confidence index for March was reported at -24.7, below expectations [24] - The Thai central bank unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% [25]