But our next guest says based on the data the Fed should not cut rates next week. Torson SLock is the chief economist over Apollo Global Management. Torston, thanks for being with us right now.Take us through the case as to why the Fed needs to hold steady. >> Well, if you look at the incoming data, for example, we had a lot of discussions here now about a month ago of course of Triricolor and First Brands and whether the credit cycle was about to get worse. But if you look at the actual numbers for default ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The price of critical metal components in electronics has surged due to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in China, with dysprosium reaching $910 per kilogram, terbium at $3,700 per kilogram, and gallium at $1,325 per kilogram, marking significant increases from previous rates [1] - The FHFA announced that the 2026 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will increase to $832,750, with a ceiling of $1,249,125, reflecting adjustments in the housing market [10][11] - Mortgage rates have decreased for the second consecutive week, with the 30-year and 15-year rates falling to 6.19% and 5.44%, respectively, which are close to year-to-date lows [21] Group 2: Industry Innovations and Products - MortgageHalo offers an automated CRM platform designed for loan officers, enhancing client relationships and improving retention through automated marketing campaigns and timely lead alerts [7] - Eris Innovations reports a growing interest among mortgage lenders to hedge interest rate risk using SOFR-based products, which could lead to improved execution levels in capital markets [2] - The Earned Equity Program (EEP) is being promoted as a way to assist borrowers with non-traditional credit profiles, allowing lenders to support a significant percentage of FHA fall-out borrowers [9] Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance Updates - FHA has updated its Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1, incorporating previously published Mortgagee Letters and various technical edits [13] - Ginnie Mae's MBS portfolio increased from $2.83 trillion to $2.84 trillion, with significant monthly issuances supporting liquidity in the housing finance system [17] - The mortgage market is being shaped by shifting monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and technological advances, as discussed in a recent webinar [15]

Montgomery coning from Monkees live team who is with us this morning. Skyler, good to have your perspective on the program. It feels like we started the week with the BMJ, to some degree with the BMJ as well, with a Bloomberg scoop that sources are telling Bloomberg that the BMJ is ready to hike on the 18th 19th of December as long as nothing enormous happened between them, which still leaves kind of half a month.So we will see. But what is your evolving thinking around the BMJ. Yeah, sure.I mean, I think i ...

LONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - By Marc Jones, global markets correspondent What matters in US and global markets today It appears the U.S. economy is experiencing some pain and the dollar is among the assets that have fallen most as it heads for its 10th straight day of declines and its biggest annual drop since 2007. Talk of who could be the next Federal Reserve chair may be ​playing a part, but given current Chair Jerome Powell is expected to cut rates again next week, economic data is too. We have excitin ...

Core Insights - The corn market is experiencing strong export demand but is hindered by large supplies, leading to price stagnation [1][3] - Concerns about US corn supplies for the 2026 planting season are emerging, with expectations of tight vendor supplies [2] - The soybean market is currently waiting for significant export business, particularly from China, which has not yet materialized [6][10] Corn Market Analysis - The national corn index recently climbed above $4 for the first time since last spring, indicating some market momentum [3] - Despite solid demand, the weak basis suggests that there is still an abundance of supplies available [4] - If demand decreases during winter, the market could weaken due to the ample bushels on hand [4][5] Soybean Market Dynamics - The soybean market is seeing commercial activity but lacks substantial sales, particularly from China, which is a key player [6][9] - Weekly export sales and shipment numbers are lagging, indicating a delay in catching up with demand [8] - There is speculation that some sales to China may be occurring below reportable levels, which could affect future reporting [9] Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to result in a quarter-point rate cut, which could weaken the US dollar and support commodities [12][15] - Political factors are currently influencing market movements more than traditional economic indicators [13] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could impact crude oil markets, but current reactions have been muted [19] Silver and Biofuels Outlook - Increased demand for silver, driven by electric vehicle production, has led to record prices, with silver crossing $58 recently [21] - Changes in fuel economy standards could affect both the silver market and ethanol demand, as a shift towards gasoline vehicles may increase ethanol usage [22]

Market Overview - Major averages on Wall Street closed higher for the second consecutive day, with the Dow up nearly 1%, Nasdaq composite up 2%, and S&P 500 up 0.3% [1] - The US dollar index has moved lower, supporting higher asset prices [2] Sector Performance - Energy, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors led the market today [2] - Tesla's stock rose by 4%, while Alphabet increased by 1%. In contrast, Microsoft and Nvidia saw declines of 2% and a mixed performance, respectively, due to concerns over AI sales quotas [3] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin experienced a 2% increase over the last 24 hours, rising from $81,000 in November to $93,000, with traders speculating it could reach $100,000 [4] - Gold futures are currently at $4,238 per ounce, with silver futures also near highs [5] Economic Indicators - Weak labor market data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, which could be a key catalyst for the market rally [5] AI and Technology Insights - AI spending is highlighted as a significant driver for market performance, with expectations of broadening equity markets due to various tailwinds including deregulation and continued rate cuts [7][8] - The differentiation between winners and losers in the AI sector is expected to become more pronounced as companies like Meta and Oracle tap into debt markets for AI expansion [10][12] Salesforce Performance - Salesforce reported a Q3 earnings per share of $3.25, exceeding expectations of $2.86, with revenue expectations for Q4 between $11.13 billion and $11.23 billion [25][26] - The annual recurring revenue for Agent Force and Data 360 saw significant year-over-year growth of 114% and 333%, respectively, indicating strong investor confidence [27][28] Investment Strategies - Financials, healthcare, and energy sectors are recommended for overweight positions due to anticipated growth and regulatory changes [20] - Concerns exist regarding the lower-end consumer due to a K-shaped recovery, suggesting caution in consumer sector investments [23] Stock Analysis - Apple has shown strong performance, breaking out of previous highs and aligning with AI narratives [50][51] - Amazon is currently in a trading range, with expectations for a breakout in the new year [52] - Microsoft and Nvidia are experiencing consolidation after recent peaks, with ongoing scrutiny regarding their valuations [55][57] - Bank of America and JP Morgan are noted for their recent performance, with Bank of America hitting record highs [59][60] Quantum and Stable Investments - Companies like IBM are recognized for their stability and involvement in the quantum space, appealing to investors seeking both growth and security [63][66]

Economic Indicators - Japanese corporate spending on factories and equipment rose by 2.9% in July-September compared to the same period last year, indicating resilience in the economy despite U.S. tariffs [1][12] - The yen gained 0.2% to 155.84 per dollar, moving away from its 10-month low of 157.90, which raised concerns about potential yen-buying interventions from Tokyo [2][12] Currency Market Dynamics - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the rapid weakening of the yen are not fundamentally driven [4][12] - The dollar has experienced a broad pullback, providing some relief to the yen, although it remains only 0.9% stronger for the year and is near lows against the euro and sterling [6][12] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by recent shifts in Fed easing expectations [7][12] - The dollar faced its worst week in four months, impacted by the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair and expectations of a dovish policy shift [8][12] Other Currency Movements - The euro slightly increased by 0.02% to $1.1600 against a weaker dollar, while the British pound remained stable at $1.3240 after a positive budget announcement [6][7][12] - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.08% to $0.6543, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.09% to $0.5733, reflecting broader market trends [9][12] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin dropped by 3.6% to $87,881.82, while ether fell by 5% to $2,871.59, indicating volatility in the cryptocurrency market [10][12]

Company Performance - Seagate has emerged as the best performer in the S&P 500 this year, surpassing Palantir, which was previously in the top position [1] - The CEO of Valtry, Rob Luna, believes that Seagate's growth is just beginning and anticipates significant potential in the coming years [1][7] Market Trends - The current market trend shows that investors are often hesitant, questioning if they have missed out on gains, which is counterintuitive to the idea of investing in stocks that are still on the rise [2][3] - Historical examples, such as Amazon, illustrate that waiting for a stock to show value can lead to missed opportunities for substantial returns [4] Investment Strategies - The discussion emphasizes the importance of buying stocks that are currently performing well, rather than waiting for pullbacks, as this strategy has proven to be more profitable [5] - Companies like Seagate and Micron are highlighted as having strong growth potential, with expectations of 20% to 30% annualized growth for Seagate over the next two to three years [8] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is represented by Micron, which is currently the best-performing stock in its sector, benefiting from government support and a focus on security [10] - The physical world of AI is driving demand for companies involved in infrastructure, such as Alistair, which is working on sensor technology for applications like driverless cars and drones [11][12]

Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to be the most significant event next week, with other central banks like BOJ, BOE, and Bank of Canada also in focus [1] - A 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated, but the market will be more interested in the Fed's updated dot plot and qualitative commentary from Powell [2][3] - Markets have already priced in 25 basis point cuts at each of the final three meetings of the year, indicating limited room for more dovish guidance from the Fed [4] Economic Data - Recent economic data shows signs of a softening economy, particularly in the labor market, with disappointing job reports and a significant jump in weekly claims [5][6] - Consumer sentiment has also dropped, reinforcing expectations for the Fed to ease policy, while inflation remains above the Fed's target despite cooler-than-expected PPI data [7][8] Company Insights - FedEx is highlighted as a crucial earnings report next week, serving as a barometer for U.S. and global economic activity, particularly sensitive to trade dynamics [9] - There is concern regarding inventory levels as companies may have brought forward inventory to avoid tariffs, which could lead to inflationary pressures if replenishment occurs at higher post-tariff rates [10] - The closing of the dimminimous loophole is impacting many e-commerce companies, adding pressure to their operations [11] Trade Talks - Expectations for significant developments in China trade talks are low, with only headlines anticipated rather than any major agreements [12]

Group 1 - BlackRock's Rick Rieder is a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, as the White House continues its search [1][2] - Rieder recently interviewed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is focused on finding a successor to Jerome Powell and desires fundamental changes in the Fed's operations [2][3] - The discussion with Rieder included topics on monetary policy and structural issues within the central bank, indicating a shift from traditional approaches [3] Group 2 - The current administration has a list of 11 candidates for the Fed chair position, which includes various past and present officials, strategists, and economists [4] - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to result in the first interest rate cut since December 2024, although Trump is advocating for larger cuts to alleviate pressure on the housing market and government borrowing costs [5]