欧委会表示，欧元区各国总体财政立场明年应保持中性，并建议重新调整预算优先级，以满足战略 投资需要。 欧委会此前预计，欧元区预算赤字将从2024年占GDP的3.1%小幅上升至今年的3.2%，并在2026年 进一步升至3.3%，2027年升至3.4%。 欧委会当天在一份声明中表示，在评估所有成员国对欧盟财政框架的遵守状况后发现，欧盟面临若 干战略脆弱性，并持续遭遇结构性挑战，包括生产率偏低、人口结构压力，以及与国防、脱碳和数字经 济转型相关的公共财政支出需求不断增加等。欧委会呼吁，欧盟成员国要保持稳健的公共财政、增强竞 争力。 最新评估显示，芬兰2024年的预算赤字为GDP的4.4%，预计2025年将升至 4.5%，2026年为4.0%。 欧委会认为，有必要对芬兰启动应对过度赤字的相关程序。另外，德国2025年赤字预计将达到GDP的 3.1%，2026年为4.0%，2027年为3.8%。根据欧盟《稳定与增长公约》规定，各国政府年度预算赤字不 得超过GDP的3%，公共债务不得超过GDP的60%。 新华社布鲁塞尔11月25日电（记者康逸）欧盟委员会25日表示，德国因国防支出增加导致赤字超 标，但并未对德国启动应对过度 ...

据@CCTV国际时讯 消息，当地时间11月23日，路透社发布独家报道称美国"政府效率部"（DOGE）已提前8个 月解散。不过，"政府效率部"现任负责人——美国人事管理局局长斯科特·库珀随即否认了这则报道。他强 调，"政府效率部"只是不再设有"集中化的领导"。 而就在同一天，库珀曾公开表示"政府效率部"已"不再存在"，其多项职能已被人事管理局接管。这被视为该部 门解散的证据。 今年1月20日，特朗普宣誓就任美国总统当天便签署行政令，组建由亿万富翁马斯克牵头、名为"政府效率 部"的顾问委员会，旨在大幅削减联邦开支，恢复联邦政府的能力与效率。依据这份行政令，"政府效率部"本 应运作18个月，于2026年7月4日解散。 马斯克上任后，"政府效率部"开始大刀阔斧地裁撤联邦雇员，并削减机构预算，也招致广泛的批评。 今年5月28日，马斯克在社交媒体发文，宣布从"政府效率部"离职。随后，他因"大而美"法案与特朗普公开决 裂。近期，二人的关系有所修复。 美国参议院常设调查小组（PSI）的民主党成员在7月底发布一份调查报告称，"政府效率部"在6个月时间内， 非但未能实现节约开支，反而造成了巨额"浪费"，"浪费"的财政资金超过21 ...

CBO在20日发布的文章中预估，2025年-2035年这11年内将总共结余3万亿美元，低于8月份的4万亿美元 估算值。CBO曾在7月份表示，特朗普的减税法案将在未来十年（截至2034年）内使财政赤字增加3.4万 亿美元。 CBO主任斯瓦格尔（Philip Swagel）在文章中表示："大约三分之二的下调是由于对新数据的调整。"他 还表示，自8月份以来关税税率的调整"也降低了对赤字的预估影响"。 近几个月来，特朗普政府与多个贸易伙伴达成协议，降低了年初加征的关税税率。CBO目前估计，实 际关税税率比一年前的2.5%高出约14个百分点，该机构在8月份曾测算实际税率高出18个百分点。 特朗普政府近期一直在调整关税水平，以降低一些商品的成本。 当地时间20日，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）将特朗普政府关税政策带来的长期财政结余预期下调了1 万亿美元，加剧外界对美国借贷需求的担忧。统计数据显示，关税结余不足以完全抵消特朗普政府减税 政策的影响。 少了1万亿美元 在截至9月份的本财年，美国财政赤字为1.78万亿美元，2024年为1.82万亿美元。 CBO也认为，与美国政府原本的预算赤字相比，更高的关税收入将在2025年-2 ...

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 43 days and has ended, but the damage caused is largely irreversible [1] - The shutdown resulted in a significant economic impact, with an estimated GDP growth reduction of 1.5 percentage points for Q4, translating to an economic loss of approximately $7 to $15 billion [4] - The shutdown particularly affected Washington D.C., where over 40% of the workforce are government employees, leading to a 50% drop in restaurant revenues during this period [4] Economic Impact - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that the shutdown caused a permanent economic loss equivalent to the cost of building a new aircraft carrier, approximately $13 billion [4] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has plummeted to a three-year low, decreasing by 6% from the previous month and nearly 30% year-over-year [6][7] Government Operations - The reopening of government does not mean an immediate return to normal operations, as agencies need time to recall personnel and process backlogged work [9] - The backlog includes critical reports on inflation and labor markets that may never be published due to the shutdown [9] Future Risks - The temporary funding measure only extends government operations until January 30, raising concerns about another potential shutdown in less than three months if budget negotiations fail [10] - Key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding the extension of Obamacare subsidies, which could lead to significant increases in healthcare costs for millions of Americans [10][12] Political Landscape - The political divide remains significant, with increasing difficulty for bipartisan agreements, as evidenced by tensions within the Democratic Party following the shutdown [13] - The next potential shutdown crisis looms as leaders may have to choose between maintaining government operations and preserving their political positions [13]

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a 10% reduction in air traffic at 40 busy airports starting November 7 due to the ongoing federal government shutdown [1] - The shutdown has led to significant operational challenges, including increased flight cancellations and delays, particularly at Newark International Airport [3][5] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has warned that if the shutdown continues, more flight cancellations and delays are expected, along with longer security wait times due to reduced open security lanes [7] Impact on Airlines and Airports - Newark International Airport, one of the busiest in the U.S., has seen a noticeable decrease in passenger traffic and an average flight delay of 2 to 3 hours since the shutdown began [3] - Nearly half of the major air traffic control facilities in the U.S. are experiencing staff shortages, with New York area facilities facing a shortage of nearly 90% [3] - Airlines have begun to reduce flights, with many cutting 4% of their schedules on November 7 and planning to increase that to 10% in the coming days, posing challenges for travelers [9] Security and Operational Challenges - The shutdown has forced many security personnel to work unpaid, leading to increased absenteeism and stress-related illnesses among staff [3] - The reduction in open security lanes has resulted in longer wait times for passengers, further complicating the travel experience [7] - The FAA has indicated that the current situation may only be the beginning of more severe disruptions if the government shutdown persists [5][7]

Core Points - The U.S. government is approaching its longest shutdown in history, with the current shutdown entering its 35th day, matching the record set in 2018-2019 [1] - The shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of federal employees being furloughed and has impacted food assistance for 40 million Americans [1] - President Trump has refused to negotiate with Democrats, insisting that the government will only reopen if "radical left Democrats" agree to his terms [1] Group 1 - The shutdown has caused significant public distress, particularly affecting the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which has seen its funding expire for the first time in over 60 years [1] - There are indications that bipartisan discussions among a small group of senators may be moving towards a potential agreement to end the shutdown [1] - Polls indicate that the public largely blames President Trump and the Republican Party for the shutdown, with 52% of registered voters attributing responsibility to them [2] Group 2 - The Trump administration has stated that only half of the normal food stamp benefits will be issued for November, contradicting Trump's earlier statements about reopening the government [2] - The interruption of SNAP and other welfare programs is expected to create real pressure on both parties to resolve the impasse, as many voters will feel the direct impact [2] - Democrats believe their negotiating position has strengthened since November 1, as they have experienced firsthand the potential increase in health insurance premiums without tax credits [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 35th day, matching the longest shutdown during Trump's first term, with ongoing blame between Republicans and Democrats [1] - The shutdown has led to significant losses, including the first interruption of food assistance for low-income families and unpaid federal employees, causing economic decision-making to become blind due to lack of data [2] - The political polarization in Congress has resulted in this unprecedented shutdown, which is the 15th since 1981, with efforts to resolve the situation appearing minimal [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown continues for another week, the U.S. economy could lose $11 billion, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to gauge employment and economic conditions accurately [4] - Trump has focused on foreign affairs during the shutdown but has recently taken a hardline stance, insisting on the elimination of the Senate's 60-vote rule for lengthy debates [5] - Some moderate Democratic senators have shifted their stance to support reopening the government, while others insist on Republican concessions to reaffirm congressional funding authority against Trump's executive overreach [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its second month, approaching the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with no resolution in sight as both parties remain entrenched in their positions [2][7] - A federal judge has ordered the government to utilize emergency funds to partially distribute food assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which covers approximately 42 million people, or one-eighth of the U.S. population [4][5] - The monthly funding requirement for the SNAP program is about $8 billion, and many states are already experiencing delays in aid distribution [5][7] Group 2 - The annual enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance began on November 1, with approximately 24 million participants, of which 22 million are eligible for enhanced subsidies [7] - If the enhanced subsidies are not extended, affected participants could see their premiums increase significantly, with some estimates suggesting an average increase of up to 114% [7] - The ongoing political stalemate over healthcare benefits is preventing the passage of a temporary funding bill, with both parties using the shutdown to advance their political agendas [7]

Economic Impact - The recent government shutdown resulted in an economic loss of $18 billion, with nearly half of this amount, approximately $9 billion, being irreversible [3][4][6] - The shutdown led to the suspension of federal employees and contractors, causing a direct halt in productivity and economic activity [4][6] - Government services such as visa approvals and trade regulations were interrupted, negatively impacting business operations and investment decisions [6][12] Consumer and Business Confidence - The uncertainty caused by the shutdown led to reduced consumer spending and investment, further exacerbating economic downturn pressures [6][12] - Small businesses and local economies, particularly those reliant on government contracts or nearby federal employees, experienced significant revenue declines during the shutdown [15][12] Data Collection and Policy Implications - The interruption of key economic data collection during the shutdown hindered the federal government and the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [7][9] - The inability to assess the current economic state accurately may lead to delayed or inappropriate monetary policy responses, worsening the economic situation [9][11] Long-term Consequences - The shutdown highlighted systemic governance issues within the U.S. political system, raising concerns about the stability of the country's credit rating and overall economic governance [11][19] - Frequent shutdowns could lead to a loss of trust among international investors, potentially affecting U.S. debt rates and the dollar's value [11][21]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote to advance the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown began on October 1 due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, leading to a depletion of funds for normal government operations [2] - The largest food assistance program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), is at risk of running out of funds, potentially affecting approximately 42 million Americans who may face food insecurity [2] Group 2 - A coalition of 25 states and Washington D.C. has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, demanding the use of emergency funds to maintain SNAP benefits for November [2] - The lawsuit accuses the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) of violating the Food and Nutrition Act and the Administrative Procedure Act by refusing to utilize emergency reserves for SNAP [2] - USDA Secretary Rollins stated that the department does not have the required $9.2 billion to continue SNAP benefits, highlighting the financial constraints faced by the agency during the shutdown [3]