Economic Growth Overview - India's economy experienced a significant growth of 8.2% in the July-September period, marking a six-quarter high, driven by a surge in consumer demand and a reduction in goods and services tax (GST) [12][5][6] - The expansion was primarily led by a 9.2% growth in services and a 9.1% rebound in manufacturing [12][1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption, which constitutes nearly 60% of GDP, rose to a three-quarter high of 7.9% in the July-September period, up from 7% in the previous quarter [2][12] - Gross fixed capital formation, an investment measure, increased by 7.3%, slightly lower than the 7.8% growth in the prior quarter [2][12] - Agriculture growth was recorded at 3.5% in Q2, a slight decrease from 3.7% in Q1 [2][12] Future Growth Projections - The strong economic performance is expected to lead to upward revisions in growth estimates for FY26, with rating agency Crisil raising its forecast from 6.5% to 7% [7][12] - First-half FY26 growth was reported at 8%, an increase from 6.1% a year earlier, with gross value added (GVA) rising by 7.9% compared to 6.2% in the same period [7][12] Rural Consumption and Inflation - Strong agricultural performance and easing inflation are contributing to improved rural consumption growth, which is anticipated to continue into the first half of FY27 [8][12] - Retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October, which, combined with strong growth, has complicated the outlook for potential rate cuts [10][12] Trade and Policy Considerations - The imposition of a 50% tariff by the US on India, including a 25% penalty for importing Russian oil, is a significant factor affecting future growth, with ongoing negotiations for a trade deal [8][12] - The GST Council's approval of a two-slab tax structure is expected to positively impact consumption by lowering taxes on various household goods [8][12]

Accessible version Commodity Strategist Year Ahead 2026: Commodity Outlook Our top five themes Commodities set for another strong performance year The ICE MLCX TR index is up 6% YTD supported by large gains in precious and industrial metals prices, while agricultural and energy commodities also posted positive single digit returns, similar to BCOM. What will happen in 2026? Our economists are forecasting sticky inflation at 2.9%, with 75bps of rate cuts through 2026 and EURUSD at 1.22. Global GDP may expand ...

Commercial corn growers likely harvested 16.4 million tons of white and yellow corn, the Crop Estimates Committee said in an email on Thursday https://t.co/8KUODzc8aw ...

On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, joins @‌tracyalloway and @‌thestalwart to talk about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and raising the cost of beef https://t.co/WfYUapTAfI https://t.co/d6BVNIq6rO ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the CFTC's futures market data, particularly regarding gold and other precious metals, and the market's expectations for interest rate changes in December and January [2][26] - It highlights the significant price movements in gold, silver, and other assets, emphasizing the normalcy of price corrections after substantial gains [27][28] - The article also touches on the broader economic implications of potential interest rate cuts and their effects on asset valuations, particularly in the context of fund managers locking in profits [26][30] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Data Analysis - The CFTC data reflects a shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in January rising from 17.4% to 25.2% over two weeks [2][26] - Managed positions in gold futures have seen a net long position decrease of 10.3% as of October 7, while silver and platinum also experienced declines in net long positions [4][8][9] - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly from approximately $2,300 to around $4,000, indicating a potential for normal price corrections [27][28] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Asset Performance - The performance of gold compared to other assets shows that it has outperformed Nasdaq and Bitcoin year-to-date, despite recent declines [28] - The author references the investment strategies of notable figures, suggesting that holding physical gold and silver is a prudent approach amid market volatility [3][29] - The article warns against the mindset of expecting quick profits from high positions, likening it to gambling rather than investing [28] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Projections - The article posits that the U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could support further increases in gold prices [30][29] - It discusses the potential for ongoing economic challenges, including stagflation, which may drive demand for physical assets like gold [32][33] - The future of gold prices is tied to the actions of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical dynamics, particularly U.S.-China relations [31][32]

On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, joins @‌tracyalloway and @‌thestalwart to talk about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and raising the cost of beef https://t.co/WfYUapTAfI https://t.co/fm0lBYLbTY ...

Today, we've wiped out over half of all the beef cattle operations in business just over a generation ago. We've lost 52% of them. And the four largest packers controlled today about 80% of the marketplace.And consumers in 2024 paid about $823 per pound for beef. And so what we see today is a dysfunctional marketplace. As I described before, since 2017, we saw beef prices going up.that consumers were paying in the retail store. We saw cattle prices going down. The latest census shows that just in the 5-year ...

On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, joins @‌tracyalloway and @‌thestalwart to talk about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and raising the cost of beef https://t.co/WfYUapTAfI https://t.co/TbDLZI6Q5T ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, advocating for a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting due to concerns over a weak labor market [2][9] - Waller estimates ex-tariff inflation to be around 2.4% or 2.5%, suggesting that inflation is not a major problem given the weak labor market [3][9] - A more meeting-by-meeting approach is expected by January, with Waller acknowledging the challenges posed by new data influencing future rate decisions [3] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine's delegation for peace plan talks is returning from Geneva, following discussions between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan regarding a potential peace plan [4][9] - Erdogan has expressed readiness to mediate in the conflict, indicating broader international engagement on the issue [5] US Agriculture Sector - US Agriculture Secretary Rollins announces that aid for farmers is expected to be unveiled in the week following Thanksgiving, with a formal announcement anticipated soon [6] - China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, which could significantly boost US agricultural exports and farmer incomes [7][9] Market Movements - Spot gold prices have surged past the $4,080/oz mark, climbing 0.36% intraday, reflecting investor uncertainty or a flight to safety [10][9] - In US pre-market trading, major indices show gains, with tech giants like Google and Tesla leading the pack with increases of 3.5% and 2.1% respectively [11][9] Housing Market Imbalance - The US housing market experienced a significant imbalance in October, with home sellers exceeding buyers by 37%, marking the widest gap recorded since 2013 [13][9] - A report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that tariffs contribute to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand, leading to higher unemployment [14]

On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, joins @‌tracyalloway and @‌thestalwart to talk about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and raising the cost of beef https://t.co/WfYUapTAfI https://t.co/CFjDrhSWtG ...