Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with major firms expected to release earnings results in the coming weeks, particularly in pharma/biotech and medical devices [1] - Johnson & Johnson has set a positive tone for the earnings season by exceeding estimates and raising its sales expectations for 2025 [1] - Roche has reported solid growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by high demand for key drugs, leading to an upward revision of its earnings per share growth expectations for 2025 [2] Earnings Trends - As of October 22, 13.3% of Medical sector companies, representing 26.8% of the sector's market capitalization, have reported earnings, with 87.5% exceeding earnings estimates and the same percentage surpassing revenue expectations [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 7.4%, while revenues rose by 9.8%. However, third-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to decrease by 4.3%, with sales expected to rise by 8.1% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Expectations - Eli Lilly is expected to report strong results driven by demand for GLP-1 drugs and other oncology and immunology products, with a consensus estimate of $16.01 billion in sales and $6.02 per share in earnings [7][8] - Merck is anticipated to see growth from its cancer drug Keytruda, with estimates of $17.06 billion in sales and $2.36 per share in earnings [12] - AbbVie is projected to benefit from sales of Rinvoq, Skyrizi, and newer drugs, with estimates of $15.59 billion in sales and $1.80 per share in earnings [13][14] - Bristol Myers is expected to report revenues influenced by growth portfolio sales, with estimates of $11.83 billion in sales and $1.51 per share in earnings [15][16] - Gilead Sciences is likely to see revenue support from its HIV therapies, with estimates of $7.46 billion in sales and $2.15 per share in earnings, although impacted by changes in Medicare Part D [19][20]

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk has announced a major restructuring plan to restore momentum in its core businesses, focusing on diabetes and obesity therapies under the new CEO Mike Doustdar [1] - The restructuring will involve a reduction of approximately 9,000 jobs globally, including 5,000 in Denmark, which is about 11% of its total workforce [2] - The company anticipates annualized savings of around DKK 8 billion by 2026, which will be reinvested into R&D and manufacturing to meet the growing demand for GLP-1 therapies [2] Financial Impact - The restructuring will incur one-time charges of about DKK 8 billion, with DKK 9 billion expected to be recorded in Q3 2025, partially offset by DKK 1 billion in savings in Q4 [4] - As a result of these changes, Novo Nordisk has lowered its 2025 operating profit growth guidance to 4-10% at constant exchange rates, down from the previous range of 10-16% [4] Competitive Landscape - The restructuring comes after Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 sales and profit outlook due to slower-than-expected uptake of its semaglutide-based drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, amid rising competition from Eli Lilly's therapies [3] - The emergence of compounded semaglutide in the U.S. market has further diluted Novo Nordisk's growth prospects in the obesity sector [3] Long-term Strategy - Despite the short-term financial impact, the restructuring is viewed as a necessary investment to enhance long-term growth and maintain leadership in the diabetes and obesity markets [5]

Core Insights - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) is implementing a restructuring program to enhance bottom-line growth amid declining revenues from legacy drugs due to generic competition [1][10] - The restructuring aims to streamline operations in key areas such as R&D, manufacturing, and commercial functions, with a focus on aligning the operating model with strategic priorities [2][4] Financial Implications - The total expected charges for the restructuring program are approximately $2.5 billion through 2027, with $1.4 billion already incurred, primarily for employee termination and site exit costs [3][10] - BMY anticipates annual cost savings of around $2.0 billion by the end of 2027 as a result of the restructuring [3][10] Operational Changes - The restructuring will transform R&D operations to accelerate pipeline delivery and enhance the commercial operating model, while also establishing a more responsive manufacturing network [2] - Despite the restructuring, BMY expects operating expenses in 2025 to rise to $16.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $16.2 billion, reflecting investments in business development and growth opportunities [4] Market Performance - BMY's shares have declined by 16.5% year-to-date, contrasting with the industry growth of 4.9% [9] - The company's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 7.36X forward earnings, which is below the industry average of 14.83X [12] Earnings Estimates - The bottom-line estimate for 2025 has increased to $6.50 from $6.37 over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has risen to $6.07 from $6.02 [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **healthcare industry in China**, particularly the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, highlighting recent license-out events and deals in the first half of 2025. Company-Specific Insights Hengrui Medicine - **License Agreement with GSK**: On July 28, 2025, Hengrui licensed out global rights (excluding Greater China) for HRS-9821 and up to 11 other products to GSK for an upfront payment of **US$500 million** and potential milestone payments totaling **US$12 billion** [1][8][19]. - **Clinical Stage**: HRS-9821 is a PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase-I clinical trials, aimed at treating COPD as an auxiliary maintenance treatment [1]. - **Financial Impact**: The upfront payment is included in the DCF model, resulting in a **51.3% increase** in the 2025 EPS forecast [2][7]. The updated price objective for Hengrui is raised to **RMB56.8** from **RMB51.5** [2]. - **Market Capitalization Comparison**: Hengrui's market cap is approximately **74%** of GSK's, while its revenue is only about **10%** of GSK's projected revenue for 2024, indicating a potential **10+ years** for Hengrui to reach GSK's revenue level assuming a **20% CAGR** [2]. 3SBio - **License Agreement with Pfizer**: On July 24, 2025, 3SBio announced a license agreement with Pfizer for the development and commercialization of SSGJ-707 in mainland China, with a non-refundable option fee of up to **US$150 million** [3]. Industry Trends - **License-Out Deals Growth**: In the first half of 2025, the total value of license-out deals by Chinese firms reached **US$60 billion**, a **135% year-over-year growth**, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [4][12]. - **Upfront Payments**: Upfront payments for Chinese firms grew **196% year-over-year** to **US$2.6 billion** in 1H25, with the number of deals increasing by **71.4%** to **72** [4][13][15]. - **R&D Capability**: The surge in deals indicates that Chinese pharma/biotech firms possess world-leading R&D capabilities, leading to significant financial rewards through licensing [4]. Financial Metrics - **Hengrui's Financial Estimates**: - Total Revenue for 2025 is estimated at **RMB33.266 billion**, a **12.1% increase** from previous estimates [7]. - Net Income is projected at **RMB9.305 billion**, reflecting a **51.3% increase** [7]. - Basic EPS is expected to be **RMB1.47**, up from **RMB0.97**, marking a **51.3% increase** [7]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks for Hengrui**: Include setbacks in drug development, slow sales ramp-up of new products, increasing pricing pressures, and competition in the PD-1 market [22]. - **Upside Risks**: Higher-than-expected net profit margins and faster progress of pipeline candidates could positively impact the price objective [22]. Conclusion - The healthcare sector in China, particularly the pharmaceutical industry, is experiencing significant growth in licensing activities, with Hengrui Medicine and 3SBio leading notable deals. The financial outlook for Hengrui has improved significantly due to recent agreements, although risks remain that could impact future performance.

Industry Overview - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with most firms expected to release earnings results in the next two weeks, primarily consisting of pharma/biotech and medical device companies [1] - The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began in mid-July, highlighted by Johnson & Johnson's strong performance, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates, leading to raised revenue and earnings expectations for the year [1] Company Performance - Novartis surpassed second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, driven by a year-over-year increase in sales of key drugs, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance for core operating income [2] - Roche experienced solid growth in the first half of 2025, with high demand for key drugs offsetting declines in legacy drug sales [2] - As of July 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 27.2% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 88.9% outperforming earnings estimates and 100% beating revenue estimates [3] - Overall, second-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 0.9%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.9% compared to the previous year [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Merck, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, and Moderna are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week [4] - Merck has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.82% [5] - AstraZeneca has a mixed earnings history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.24% [8] - Bristol Myers has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.16% over the last four quarters [11] - AbbVie has also maintained a strong track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.55% [13] - Moderna has an excellent earnings history, with an average surprise of 31.60% in the last four quarters [15] Sales Drivers - Merck's growth in the second quarter is likely attributed to increased sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, driven by additional indications and patient demand [7] - AstraZeneca's sales are expected to be bolstered by strong demand for its cancer and diabetes medications [10] - Bristol Myers' revenue may be impacted by declines in legacy drug sales, but growth products are expected to partially offset this decline [12] - AbbVie's revenue is anticipated to be driven by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] - Moderna's revenues are expected to be influenced by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, while the focus is shifting to updates on its broader pipeline [16]

Summary of China Pharma and Biotech Conference Call Industry Overview - The China healthcare sector is experiencing its strongest rally since mid-2023, with the Hang Seng Biotech and MSCI China Healthcare indices showing year-to-date (YTD) returns of 57% and 38%, respectively, outperforming broader indices like Hang Seng and MSCI China at 20% and 16% [1][10] - The current market is at 30% of the peak seen during the last healthcare boom in 2020-2021, with a notable shift towards mature companies and top players rather than early-stage firms [1][2] - Public financing has surged, increasing 4 times in 1H25 compared to 1H24, with about two-thirds of IPO and follow-on offerings yielding positive returns [1][12] Market Valuation and Opportunities - Valuations in the China healthcare sector are now at or above global counterparts, with MSCI China healthcare P/S ratios crossing over with S&P 500 healthcare [2] - Individual stock performance varies significantly, with funds showing interest in companies with lower valuation multiples and potential for out-licensing deals [2][52] - Specific companies like CSPC are considered overheated with a PEG ratio of 14.5x, while Hengrui (2.3x) and Sino Biopharm (2.0x) are viewed as cheaper alternatives [3][44] Biotech Sector Insights - Biotech companies are valued based on market cap to projected 2032 revenue, ranging from 2-5x. Companies like BeiGene (2.7x) and Zai Lab (1.2x) are seen as undervalued, while Akeso (4.7x) and Kelun Biotech (5.6x) are considered relatively pricey [4][48] - The biotech sector has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, rising from US$102 billion to US$160 billion YTD 2025 [11] Clinical Trials and R&D - The number of clinical trial starts in China has shown consistent growth, with local assets making up over 50% of the global pipelines for the first time in 2025 [1][33] - Innovative drug modalities, particularly in oncology, have seen a resurgence in clinical trials, indicating sustained R&D efforts despite previous market downturns [32][36] Out-licensing Trends - There has been a boom in outbound licensing deals, with companies like RemeGen and Innovent leading the way. This trend is expected to continue, although there are concerns about saturation in certain drug classes [34][52] - The out-licensing model has remained resilient against geopolitical challenges, with no significant shifts in FDA attitudes towards China-originated drugs [34] Investment Implications - The report rates Akeso, Hansoh, Innovent, and Hengrui as Outperform, while BeiGene, CSPC, Sino Biopharm, and Zai Lab are rated as Market-Perform [7] - A methodological shift in valuation is noted, with increased emphasis on multiple-based valuation for mature companies, while biotechs will continue to use P/S and DCF models [8] Conclusion - The China pharma and biotech sector is on an upward trajectory, driven by strong market sentiment, increased public financing, and a robust pipeline of clinical trials. However, caution is advised regarding valuation levels and the sustainability of the current rally, particularly in the context of out-licensing deals and market saturation [52][53]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Healthcare Sector**: Anticipation of an Executive Order on drug pricing expected next week, with a probability of over 70% for the implementation of Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing to reduce the disparity between US and international drug prices [3][9] - **Transportation and Logistics**: Expected reduction in shipments due to tariffs, but supply chain disruptions may provide some offset. Favorable outlook for specific companies like XPO, NSC, and CP, while UPS and SAIA appear oversold [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)**: Notable shift in search dynamics with the first-ever decline in Safari searches, raising concerns about AI search potentially replacing traditional search methods. However, long-term monetization of AI is expected to ramp up [2][27] - **Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)**: Azure reported a 35% year-over-year revenue growth, with a 34% increase in backlog, outperforming Amazon's AWS and Google's GCP. Combined cloud backlog growth of 33% indicates strong core demand despite AI capacity constraints [5][27] - **Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)**: Focus on Robotaxi and affordable model launches, but concerns over tariffs and execution risks contribute to share price volatility [6][27] - **Walmart Inc. (WMT)**: Anticipated Q1 sales are expected to be in line or slightly better, but caution is advised due to product mix and potential impacts on EBIT growth [5][27] - **Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)**: Continued performance exceeding expectations, with FY27 EPS estimates raised to approximately $25. Merger synergies of $2.7 billion expected to phase in from Q2 [7][27] - **MP Materials**: Potential factory closures in the US due to the absence of rare earth magnet flows from China, impacting industries such as aerospace and electric vehicles [7][27] - **GeneDx**: Management confidence in over 30% volume growth for NICU genetic diagnostics this year, with a compelling valuation at 4x projected 2026 revenues [8][27] Market Dynamics - **Quant Strategy**: Increasing EPS risk indicated by Q1 earnings beats and misses, with the Mag 7 model yielding a cumulative long-short return of 10.5% since its launch [2] - **Russell Rebalance**: Notable buy/sell pressure on specific stocks leading into the June 27 rebalance, with BAM, FLUT, and HWM among the top gainers, while SSB and HQY are under pressure [4] Additional Considerations - **Tariffs and Supply Chain**: The impact of tariffs on shipments and the potential for redirected flows to mitigate some negative effects [4] - **AI and Search Trends**: The evolving landscape of search engines and the implications of AI on traditional search methods [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the healthcare and technology sectors, along with specific company performances and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, indicating a favorable investment rating for large caps in the current market cycle [5][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small caps due to better pricing power and operational efficiency in a slowing macroeconomic environment [5][8]. - It highlights the attractiveness of large-cap healthcare stocks compared to staples, noting that healthcare trades at a discount and offers better defensive hedges [5][8]. - The report also points out that industrials are favored over consumer discretionary goods within cyclicals, citing stronger pricing power and less exposure to tariffs [5][8]. - A focus on high-quality stocks is recommended, as they are expected to perform better in a slowing economic environment [5][8]. - The report indicates a preference for US equities over international equities, particularly the S&P 500, due to its quality growth attributes and lower volatility [6][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Preferences - Large caps are preferred over small caps due to their relative outperformance in a late-cycle environment [5][8]. - Large-cap healthcare is favored over staples, with a noted 4-turn discount to the S&P and a 6-turn discount to staples, making it a better defensive hedge [5][8]. - Industrials are preferred over consumer discretionary goods, benefiting from stronger pricing power and structural exposure to infrastructure build-out [5][8]. - High-quality stocks are recommended for investment, particularly those with less leverage and lower earnings volatility [5][8]. - The report suggests selective investment in high-quality cyclicals that have already priced in a slowdown [5][8]. - US equities, particularly the S&P 500, are favored over international equities due to their quality growth characteristics and improving earnings revisions [6][9]. Market Outlook - The S&P 500 has surpassed previous resistance levels, indicating a potential for further gains if positive developments continue [14]. - A trade deal with China is seen as crucial for maintaining corporate confidence and supporting equity markets [15][17]. - The report notes that while earnings season has been better than feared, there are still concerns about future earnings revisions and macroeconomic conditions [19][21]. - The report anticipates a mid-single-digit percent hit to EPS growth in 2025 and 2026, which is typical in moderate growth slowdowns [26][27].

Core Insights - The Medical sector is experiencing a robust first-quarter earnings season, with several drugmakers reporting results, and large caps like J&J, Merck, and Amgen exceeding earnings and sales estimates [1][2] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to rise by 40%, with revenues expected to increase by 8.3% [3] Earnings Performance - As of April 30, 45% of Medical sector companies, representing approximately 57.9% of the sector's market capitalization, have reported earnings, with 66.7% beating both earnings and revenue estimates [2] - Year-over-year earnings growth for the sector is reported at 60.5%, while revenues have increased by 7.8% [2] Company Highlights - **Novo Nordisk**: Expected to report earnings of 92 cents per share and revenues of $11.33 billion, with strong sales anticipated from diabetes and obesity care products [6][7] - **Pacira BioSciences**: Projected earnings of 57 cents per share and revenues of $174.96 million, driven by sales of its pain-management product Exparel [8][9] - **Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals**: Expected to report a loss of $1.54 per share and revenues of $141.99 million, with growth driven by its lead drug Crysvita [10][11] - **Acadia Pharmaceuticals**: Anticipated earnings of 6 cents per share and revenues of $241.74 million, primarily from sales of Nuplazid for Parkinson's disease psychosis [12][13] - **Denali Therapeutics**: Expected loss of 71 cents per share and revenues of $8.3 million, with updates on pipeline programs anticipated during the earnings report [17][18] Earnings Surprise Potential - The Earnings ESP methodology indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have a high chance of delivering earnings surprises, with a success rate of up to 70% [4][5]

Industry Overview - The first-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is underway, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Biogen, and Regeneron set to announce results [1] - Johnson & Johnson and Merck have reported results, both exceeding first-quarter estimates for earnings and sales, while Sanofi had mixed results, beating earnings estimates but missing sales [1] Earnings Trends - As of April 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 33.8% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 77.8% surpassing estimates for both earnings and revenues [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 4.7%, and revenues rose by 9.4% [3] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are expected to increase by 35%, while sales are projected to rise by 7.8% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 44.16% [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $13.88 billion and 64 cents per share, respectively [6] - Non-COVID operational revenues are driving growth, supported by products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, despite a decline in sales of COVID products [7] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly has had mixed performance, exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.47% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $12.62 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [8] - Growth is expected to be driven by demand for FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, although sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations [9][10] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.23% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $7.96 billion and $4.15 per share, respectively [11] - Product sales are expected to be driven by strong volume growth, although prices may decline due to higher rebates [12] Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.80% [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is $2.23 billion and $3.52 per share, respectively [13] - Lower sales of multiple sclerosis drugs are likely to be offset by revenues from new drugs [14] Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron has had mixed results, surpassing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.23% [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is $3.28 billion and $8.43 per share, respectively [17] - Sales of Eylea are expected to have declined due to competition, but sales of Eylea HD and Dupixent are likely to have surged [18][19]