智通财经7月15日电，今日24时，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将开启。机构普遍预测，国内成品油价或 将出现年内第六次下调。 国内油价或年内第六降 ...

第12届世界化学工程大会暨第21届亚太化工联盟大会昨天开幕，一批引领未来产业发展的前沿材料和新 装备集中亮相。 中国已成为最大化工产业 前沿材料集中亮相世界化学工程大会 有一款能在极端环境中安全工作的薄膜，可在零下260摄氏度至零上420摄氏度的超宽温域内保持稳定物 理特性，广泛应用于高端电器绝缘层、新能源汽车电池隔膜、航空航天热防护等关键场景，而这款产品 研发整整用了20年。 参展商汤昌丹：这个材料是买不到现成的装备的，每一款薄膜的性能和浆料的性能都是用不同的单体的 配方表现出来的。 前沿材料的量产，离不开高端装备的"保驾护航"。这款石油化工领域的高精密传感器测量精度达万分之 五，相当于能在1吨的重量中精准识别500克的变化。 参展商唐田：它是通过微位移的变化，把我们的压力信号变成电信号，这个产品的制造工艺要求非常精 密。 能源化工行业首个国家级备案大模型"昆仑大模型"正式亮相，其3000亿参数的语言模型覆盖油气全产业 链，已在智能勘探、生产优化等100个场景落地应用，让研发周期平均缩短30%以上。 参展商孙筱：这是橡胶领域首个可对基本单元、序列、分子量等结构进行设计与预测的大模型。用户可 以根据对橡胶组分 ...

Group 1 - The company, Hunan Baile Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB -38 million to -57 million for the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be RMB -36 million to -55 million [2][3] - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [2] Group 2 - In the same period of the previous year, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB -134 million and a net loss of RMB -141 million after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [4] - The earnings per share for the first half of 2024 was reported at RMB -0.27 [5] Group 3 - The primary reasons for the expected loss in the first half of 2025 include a sluggish macroeconomic environment, technological obsolescence, and overcapacity in the downstream markets of new energy and traditional energy [6] - Some clients have reduced or canceled their capacity expansion plans, leading to decreased equipment investment demand and prolonged project acceptance cycles, which have increased costs [6] - Intense competition in the domestic lithium battery equipment and petrochemical industries has resulted in a decline in gross margins for the company's orders [6]

石油化工产业不仅是能源转化的"心脏"，更是工业经济的"血脉"。 它的应用像空气一样无处不在，比如早餐包装的塑料盒，上班穿的化纤衬衫，手机里的电器元件，新能 源汽车的各种零部件都是来自炼化产品。 从基础民生到高端科技，从传统制造到战略新兴产业，石油炼化是国家能源安全、工业发展和经济稳定 的重要支柱。 以中石油为例，"减油增化"战略成功落实，2024年化工商品产量同比增长10.4%，乙烯和PX产量同比分 别增长8.1%和31.4%。 此外，2024年一年之内完成可研批复55项，一系列转型升级项目加紧推进，有力支撑炼化业务加快向产 业链中高端迈进。可以说，中国石油炼化企业正在向"率先建成世界一流"的目标迈进。 在未来，随着新质炼化时代的到来，从大国变为强国是中国石油化工产业追求的终极目标。 广东揭阳地势平坦，海岸线绵长，淡水资源丰富，为大规模建厂、造码头以及化工生产，提供了得天独 厚的自然条件。 这是企业选择落户广东揭阳惠来县的重要原因之一。 作为中石油一次性投资最大的炼化一体化项目，广东石化的建设并非一帆风顺。 2018年，项目重启之时，地处广东揭阳南海之滨的厂区，几乎还是一张白纸。 重启也为企业带来了崭新的定位 ...

公司代码：600688 公司简称：上海石化 编号：临 2025-031 注 1：销量不包括来料加工业务。 注 2：产销量差距部分为内部自用。 以上销量和销售收入数据不包含本集团石油化工产品贸易数据。 二、2025 年上半年主要产品和原材料价格变动情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"，连 同其附属公司，"本集团"）根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监 管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十三号-化工》第十五条的 相关规定，特将截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止 6 个月主要经营数据公告如 下： 产品名称 产量（万吨） 销量（万吨） 销售收入 （人民币千元） 炼油产品 柴油 119.87 118.62 7,705,825 汽油 166.81 167.58 13,496,370 航空煤油 注 1 112.61 68.69 3,316,209 化工产品 对二甲苯 注 2 35.29 35.25 2,124,337 苯 注 1 17.48 17.43 1,03 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-14 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】科创债规模和跨市场利 差怎么看？——科创债专题之三 20250711》 - 2025.07.11 生产：钢铁产业链下降，沥青、PTA、轮胎开工率升高 7 月 11 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 0.48 pct，高炉开工率下 降 0.31 pct，螺纹钢产量下降 4.42 万吨；石油沥青开工率升高 1.0 pct；化工 PX 开工率下降 0.74 pct，PTA 开工率升高 1.43 pct；汽车 全钢胎开工率升高 0.81 pct，半钢胎开工率升高 2.51 pct。 需求：商品房成交边际回落，BDI 触底反弹 7 月 6 日当周，商品房成交面积下降，存销比下降；土地成交面 积持续回升，住宅用地成交溢价率下降；电影票房较前一周增加 1.98 亿元；汽车厂家日均零售减少 5.57 万辆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to oscillate, with a strategy of lightly shorting and buying call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [1][3][5] - **LPG**: Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, with a strategy of temporary observation. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [1][6][8] - **L**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of buying on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [1][10][11] - **PP**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and opportunistically taking a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1][13][14] - **PVC**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [1][16] - **PX**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [1][17][18] - **PTA/PR**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [1][19][21] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [1][22][24] - **Glass**: Expected to be long on rebounds, with a strategy of going long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [2][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][29][30] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to continue to rebound, with a strategy of following the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [2][32][33] - **Methanol**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2][34] - **Urea**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. UR is expected to be in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of lightly shorting. BU is expected to be in the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan/ton [2] - **Propylene**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Propylene is expected to be in the range of 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On July 11, WTI rose 2.82%, Brent rose 2.51%, and SC fell 3.11% [3] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase in August. However, the oil price has strong support due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP in August. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand growth is expected to slow down. US crude oil inventory increased by 710 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ending July 4 [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short - position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PG main contract closed at 4164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4590 (+0), 4496 (+2), and 4620 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [6] - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices are the dominant factor. Although oil prices are supported in the short term, LPG supply is relatively sufficient, so it oscillates in a narrow range. PDH device profit remained unchanged at - 384 yuan/ton as of July 11. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [8] L - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of L contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5%. The North China basis was - 101 (month - on - month increase of 28) [10] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost support has improved and the agricultural film start - up rate has increased month - on - month, the downstream demand for polyethylene is in the off - season. Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. However, new devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons, so the medium - and long - term outlook is weak [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [10] PP - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PP contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The East China basis was 49 (month - on - month increase of 34), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, and the export profit margin has turned positive. However, the continuous increase in warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space. Device restart plans are increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. New capacity of 2 million tons is planned to be added in the third quarter, so the medium - and long - term supply is under pressure [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and opportunistically take a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [13] PVC - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PVC contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The Changzhou basis was - 120 (month - on - month increase of 60), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Basic Logic**: Policy expectations drive the disk to rebound, and the price of动力煤 has risen. However, export orders have weakened month - on - month, the off - season inventory accumulation pressure is obvious, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The production is expected to increase next week, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Bohua and Wanhua. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [16] PX - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The PX09 contract closed at 6694 (-88) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 74 (+10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 426 (+88) yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. Supply and demand are in a tight balance. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and the basis is strong. It fluctuates with the cost recently [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [18] PTA/PR - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (-20) yuan/ton. The TA09 contract closed at 4700 (-42) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 38 (+26) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 15 (+22) yuan/ton [19] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is expected to weaken, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is continuously declining at a high level, and the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing, and the basis is weakening [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (-3) yuan/ton. The EG09 contract closed at 4305 (-20) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was - 26 (+7) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 78 (+17) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than that of restarts, and the arrival volume is lower than the same period. However, the expected arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is decreasing, and the terminal weaving start - up continues to decline. The low inventory supports the disk price, and the oil price is oscillating strongly recently [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [24] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation increased, and the disk rose slightly. The Hubei basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [26] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological improvement process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production this week has increased slightly, the inventory of glass enterprises has continued to decline, but it is still 10% higher than the same period last year. The fuel price has increased, and the spot quotation has been raised [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [27] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the disk rose, the main contract basis decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [29] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, which boosted the morale of the industrial chain. However, as the impact of policy speculation weakens, the center of gravity of soda ash has declined, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventory again. The supply of the soda ash market is at a high level, and the inventory of soda ash plants is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially raised, the disk center of gravity moved up, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has a summer overhaul season inventory reduction expectation. The overall start - up of caustic soda is still at a high level, and there is an expectation of new capacity commissioning. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The main downstream alumina start - up has rebounded, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk in May. The cost support has moved down. The liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [33] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (-23) yuan/ton. The main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2370 (-28) yuan/ton. The methanol East China basis was 11 (+13) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol devices are under overhaul, but the comprehensive start - up load remains relatively high. Overseas methanol devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, the load of coastal MTO external procurement devices has continued to decline, and the start - up load of traditional demand is generally high. The social inventory has increased, and the port basis has weakened [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has shown weak price performance this week, with 28.2% of the 170 tracked products increasing in price, while 40.6% decreased, and 31.2% remained stable [1][3] - Key products with notable price increases include trichloromethane, butane (CFR East China), caustic soda (32% ion membrane, Shandong), butadiene (Shandong), and lithium carbonate [1][3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - As of July 11, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $70.36 and $68.45 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.02% and 2.93% respectively from the previous week [2] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August due to low global oil market inventories [2] - The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than previous estimates [2] Group 3: Price and Margin Analysis - The average inventory conversion loss for crude oil this week was 254 yuan/ton, while propane had a loss of 493 yuan/ton [3] - The chemical product price spread has also shown weakness, with 43.1% of the 130 tracked spreads increasing, while 54.6% decreased [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The valuation of the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors is currently at 18.1x and 24.7x PE (TTM), which is 12.0% and -8.1% relative to historical averages [4] - The chemical industry is expected to see structural opportunities and valuation recovery in the second half of the year, driven by domestic demand and policy stimulus [4] - Three investment themes are suggested: focusing on domestic demand, exploring cyclical opportunities due to supply constraints, and accelerating domestic substitution in new materials [4]

东海期货： 最新数据显示，截至7月9日当周，中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为33.9%，环比上涨0.8%，沥青周产量 为56.6万吨，环比上涨2.4%。其中，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为32.7%，环比上涨1.0%。 7月份沥青全国炼厂计划量与5-6月份基本持平，且今年华东地区在6月底陆续出梅，较往年同期提前十 天左右，给市场带来利好。 机构观点 消息面 7月11日，上期所石油沥青厂库期货仓单39350吨，环比上个交易日持平；石油沥青仓库期货仓单42950 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 油价区间运行，沥青价格维持震荡。近期发货量明显回落，厂库去化结束，有拐头累积迹象。另外近期 基差开始出现小幅下行，现货情况一般，社库短期保持微幅累积态势。需求旺季整体表现一般，并未有 超出市场预期表现，后期关注库存去化情况，短期或略有不及预期，继续跟随原油中枢高位，但整体偏 弱震荡。 国信期货： 当前沥青基本面呈现供需双弱格局。供应端，企业开工负荷率虽处同期低位，但变化有限。需求端表现 更为关键，终端刚性需求整体低迷，难以对沥青价格形成有效提振。受此影响，市场观望情绪异常浓 厚，下游用户及贸易商普遍采取谨慎策略，入市积极性不高 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/14 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/11 | 美元/桶 | 68.45 | 66.57 | 2.82% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/11 | 美元/桶 | 70.36 | 68.64 | 2.51% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/11 | 美元/吨 | 584.25 | 591.00 | -1.14% | | 游 | | | | | | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/11 | | 美元/吨 | 719.50 | 726.50 | -0.96% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/11 | 美元/吨 | 837.00 | 847.67 | -1.26% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 202 ...