Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Group 1 - The current A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations occurring within short time frames [1] - Historical analysis shows that the average gain during "valuation expansion" phases since 2005 is 21.9%, lasting an average of 53 trading days [1] - Factors leading to the end of valuation expansion include policy tightening, external negative shocks, and excessive valuation and sentiment [1] Group 2 - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by the US government aims to boost AI subsidies and promote domestic chip manufacturing, with a projected economic growth impact of 0%-0.6% by 2026 [8] - The bill's long-term effects may lead to a decrease in economic growth rates after 2028 [8] Group 3 - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market by promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, and green housing [16] - Recent data indicates that the maximum electricity load in China reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, driven by extreme heat [11] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry in Shenzhen is being promoted through ten measures aimed at high-quality development [15] - The aviation sector is seeing regulatory changes with the establishment of a leadership group to develop general aviation and low-altitude economy [12] Group 5 - The food delivery market is witnessing intense competition, with Meituan reporting over 1.2 billion orders in a single day [5][34] - The e-commerce platform Taobao is launching a significant subsidy campaign, aiming for a substantial increase in order volume [34] Group 6 - The latest industry trends indicate that the textile, light manufacturing, and media sectors are in a recession phase, while the computer, communication, and defense industries are expanding [27] - The pharmaceutical and food and beverage sectors are expected to see an increase in their economic outlook, while the construction materials and steel industries may experience a decline [28]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a "strong in Shenzhen, weak in Shanghai" characteristic last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [2] - The banking sector index reached a new high, indicating a shift of funds from overvalued sectors to policy-benefiting areas [2] - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry was 1.30%, with 81% of sectors showing positive returns, particularly steel, building materials, and banking, which rose by 5.06%, 3.96%, and 3.77% respectively [2][13] Fund Issuance - A total of 20 funds were issued last week, including 11 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 5.328 billion units [4][10] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index increased by 0.71% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index rising by 1.60% and the mixed equity fund index increasing by 1.25% [3][9] Global Asset Review - International equity markets showed slight divergence, with U.S. stocks continuing to rise, driven by Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, while European markets displayed weakness due to concerns over economic recovery [5] - Commodity markets experienced significant differentiation, with oil prices influenced by U.S. economic data and international risk factors, while metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and silver recorded gains [5] Domestic Bond Market Review - The bond market remained stable, with the China Bond Composite Index rising by 0.15% and the convertible bond index performing well with a gain of 1.21% [14]

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on weekly price and transaction volume changes[3][17][18] - The construction process involves identifying industries where price and transaction volume deviate significantly, with industries outside the ellipse in quadrant 1 indicating short-term significant crowding[17] - Last week, the building materials industry showed significant trading crowding[18]

| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3461.15, up by 0.18% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.17% to 10534.58, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.90% to 2164.09 [1][2] - The overall market showed a trend of more stocks rising than falling, with over 3200 stocks increasing in value and more than 60 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (up 1.69%), Electric Equipment (up 1.38%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (up 1.35%) [1][2] - Conversely, sectors such as Coal, Transportation, and Steel showed declines, with Coal down by 1.16% [1][2] IPO Activity - As of June 30, a total of 43 IPOs were accepted by the three major exchanges, with a total of 152 IPOs accepted throughout June [3] - The increase in IPO acceptance is attributed to changes in the policy environment, calendar effects, and ongoing support for technological innovation in the capital market [3] Market Trends and Outlook - The market is currently in a stable upward trend, supported by core heavyweight stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining a position above the 5-day moving average [4] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to shift market focus towards fundamental drivers, with stable profit-generating industries likely to receive valuation premiums [4] - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Electric Equipment, Pharmaceuticals, and Finance [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industrialized prefabricated fiber cement boards with pre-finished surfaces are revolutionizing curtain wall materials in the construction industry, meeting higher demands for quality, efficiency, and environmental protection [1][2] - These boards are produced with automated spraying lines, ensuring uniform color, gloss, and texture, and can achieve various effects such as metallic, stone-like, or solid colors [1] - Prefabricated panels exhibit excellent adhesion and weather resistance, utilizing high-performance coatings like fluorocarbon paint, which are UV resistant, washable, and long-lasting, significantly extending the lifespan of curtain walls [1] Group 2 - The prefabricated boards eliminate the need for secondary spraying and on-site construction, fundamentally avoiding quality issues such as color differences, wrinkles, and bubbles [1] - The construction process is simplified, requiring only cutting and direct installation, which reduces construction time by at least 50% and improves site management by minimizing dust and noise [1] - Although the price per panel is slightly higher, the overall project budget becomes more controllable due to savings in labor, management costs, and reduced maintenance expenses [1] Group 3 - As processes mature and standardize, prefabricated decorative fiber cement boards are expected to become standard in high-end curtain wall projects, aligning with the construction industry's sustainable development trends [2] - The evolution of fiber cement boards from traditional on-site construction to prefabricated integration enhances curtain wall quality and efficiency while injecting green and high-quality innovation into modern architecture [2]

Group 1: Overview of the Event - The event "Media Visits China National Building Material Group for High-Quality Development" was successfully held from June 23 to 27, with nearly ten media outlets exploring seven enterprises under China National Building Material Group [1] Group 2: North New Materials - North New Materials emphasizes "green technology and quality life," achieving significant results in the green building materials sector [2] - The company has developed a circular economy and promotes energy-efficient and prefabricated buildings, creating a full lifecycle green building industry closed loop [2] - In 2024, North New Materials successfully consumed 15.23 million tons of industrial by-product gypsum, significantly reducing reliance on natural mineral resources [2] Group 3: Innovation in Building Materials - North New Materials has continuously innovated, launching a series of home decoration products and prefabricated interior systems, including the popular Luban Universal Board [3] - The company integrates traditional culture with modern building technology through its product lines, enhancing both aesthetics and performance [3] Group 4: Cadmium Telluride Solar Glass - The cadmium telluride solar glass technology developed by Handan China National Building Material has become a key focus, marking a significant breakthrough in 2017 with the world's first large-area cadmium telluride solar glass [4] - This technology allows buildings to convert sunlight into electricity while providing ample natural light, thus achieving energy-saving and environmental protection [4] Group 5: Wind Power Blade Innovations - The wind power blades produced by China National Materials Technology in Pingxiang have a length of 108 meters, utilizing advanced materials and modular assembly techniques to reduce weight by over 10% [7] - The company has maintained the largest domestic market share for 14 consecutive years and has been the global leader for the past three years [8] Group 6: High Voltage Insulators - China National Electric Porcelain specializes in high-voltage insulators, with products meeting international standards and being supplied to major companies like Siemens and ABB [9] - The company holds over 70 patents and has developed innovative products to address market needs, maintaining a leading position in the high-voltage insulator sector [9] Group 7: Cement Industry Transformation - Jiangxi Shanggao Southern Cement has achieved comprehensive resource utilization in its mining operations, earning recognition as a "green mine" [11] - The company has implemented advanced technologies to reduce carbon emissions significantly, with a projected 29% reduction in carbon emissions by 2024 [12] Group 8: Foam Ceramics - Jiangxi New Materials has transitioned to producing foam ceramics, utilizing industrial waste to create innovative building materials [13] - The company has developed a range of products that are gradually replacing traditional materials, achieving a production and sales rate of 120% in 2023 [14] Group 9: Zero Carbon Fiber Glass - Giant Stone Group in Huai'an has established the world's first zero-carbon intelligent manufacturing base for fiberglass, achieving net-zero emissions through renewable energy [15] - The company is also developing a production line for electronic-grade fiberglass, contributing to carbon neutrality and addressing global carbon tariffs [16] Group 10: Conclusion - China National Building Material Group is driving the transformation from "material manufacturing" to "material creation" through technological innovation and industry collaboration, setting a national benchmark for high-quality development in the building materials sector [17]

7月3日，A股市场整体上涨。 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出48.18亿元，尾盘净流入4.1亿元，全天净流出24.75亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 人提供随圆 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-7-3 | -24. 75 | -48. 18 | 4. 10 | 36. 21 | | 2025-7-2 | -331.90 | -120. 22 | -18.91 | -157.53 | | 2025-7-1 | -231. 12 | -105.84 | -1.95 | -90. 80 | | 2025-6-30 | -39.95 | -29.38 | 12. 66 | 17.18 | | 2025-6-27 | -154. 13 | -87.80 | -22.52 | -36. 69 | 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出超60亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出66.99亿元，创业板净流出12.37亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据( ...