以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者温世君 棱镜 . 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 1600亿身家，3000亿营收。 来源：棱镜 文：温世君 编辑：孙春芳 这并不奇怪。生于1947年的张学信，早在2015年就已交出了帅印，将信发集团有限公司的法 人代表、董事长、总经理一口气变更为1981年出生的儿子张刚。彼时，张学信68岁，张刚34 岁。 相对于这对父子的财富体量，信发集团的公众关注度并不高。这家发迹于鲁西县城的企业，在 核心的铝业领域，已掌控从铝土矿、氧化铝、发电（包括新能源）到电解铝、铝加工、化工、 建材的产业链。 近年来，信发集团或张刚个人控制的实体更是持续用大资金收购上游矿山资源：2025年7月， 以合计约55亿元资金，取得国内储量最大的铅锌矿"火烧云"40%股权。在主业相关的铝土矿 领域，在2025年5月分别以10.12亿元、16.12亿元收购广西金龙铝土矿采矿权、山西正义铝 土矿探矿权，在2024年10月以45.57亿元收购山西下枣林铝土矿采矿权…… 但这家山东首富父子的企业，却一直不上市、不发债，不公开财务报表。这是为何呢？ 这里插播一条课程资讯： 报名 「吴世春·西安出行活动」， 1月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with new home and second-hand home transaction areas still showing negative year-on-year growth, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024. New construction starts and development investments continue to decline, and funding is tight, indicating an ongoing deleveraging cycle. The overall loss level of the industry has further expanded compared to the second quarter, suggesting that the fundamentals remain weak. Future policy support and stabilization of the industry are expected to drive market trends [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is benefiting from a dual advantage of cost and policy due to the elimination of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities. The sector is expected to see stable support from urban village renovations and the acceleration of affordable housing construction. Current valuations are at historical lows, making certain stocks attractive for defensive and long-term investment [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of November 13, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.07% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 11.37% [13][17]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to one focused on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [4][28]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 2.63% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.3 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.38% [29][32]. - The cement industry is expected to see a significant increase in profitability due to the implementation of carbon trading regulations and the elimination of inefficient capacities. The sector is supported by ongoing construction projects and a favorable valuation environment [4][50]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and Binhai Group (002244) in the real estate sector, and Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801) in the building materials sector [4][53].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders improved significantly to 2.96 billion from a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year [1] Cement Sector - Tianshan shares experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025, with a sales volume of 144.1 million tons, down 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a greater decline than the industry average [2] - The company's Q3 revenue was 18.96 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, while net profit was -0.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [2] Engineering Sector - China National Materials International's Q3 2025 performance remained stable year-on-year, with a revenue of 32.998 billion, a 3.99% increase, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, a 0.68% increase [3] - The Q3 revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while net profit decreased by 1.18% to 0.653 billion [3] New Materials Sector - China National Materials Technology reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235% [3] - The main business faced challenges due to credit impairment losses in blade business and a temporary decline in fiberglass prices, although prices began to rise in September [3] Gypsum Board Sector - BNBM's gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters, and a Q3 revenue drop of 6.20% [4] - The company expects revenue growth in waterproof and paint businesses due to its state-owned enterprise background and resource advantages [4] - Q3 net profit was 0.657 billion, a year-on-year decline of 29.47% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the attributable net profit was 2.96 billion, showing significant improvement compared to a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year. The estimated attributable net profit for Q3 2025 is 1.6 billion, up 20% from 1.33 billion in the same period last year [2][4]. Segment Summaries 1. **Cement Segment**: The company experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025. The national cement production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The company’s sales of cement and clinker were 144.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a more significant decline than the industry average. The single-quarter revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.96 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.26 billion, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year [5][6]. 2. **Engineering Segment**: The engineering business showed stable growth, with a total revenue of 32.998 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, up 3.99% year-on-year. The Q3 2025 single-quarter revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while the net profit was 0.653 billion, down 1.18% year-on-year [6]. 3. **New Materials Segment**: The new materials segment reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235%. The main business saw some marginal changes, with a decrease in prices for fiberglass yarn. However, there was an improvement in the AI electronic cloth business due to increased demand and better yield rates, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 5.7%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. 4. **North New Materials**: The gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, and a 6.20% decline in Q3. Despite this, the waterproof business is expected to maintain growth due to the company's strong background and funding advantages [7].

Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, down 2.25% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77% [1] Revenue Performance - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 6.347 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 29.47% [1][2] - The gypsum board business is expected to face price and volume declines due to significant demand pressure, while the waterproof business is anticipated to maintain growth due to the company's state-owned enterprise background and financial advantages [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, a slight decrease of approximately 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 27.8%, down 2.3 percentage points from 30.1% in the previous year [2] - Despite the overall pressure in the real estate sector, the gypsum board industry remains relatively stable in profitability, indicating the company's pricing power due to its high market share [2] Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 14.3%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, with sales and management expense ratios rising by 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [3] - In Q3, the expense ratio rose to 16.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, with increases in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [3] Cash Flow and Operational Quality - The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was 82.8%, a slight decline of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 saw an improvement to 96.3%, up 7.0 percentage points [3] - The net cash ratio for the first three quarters was 59.5%, down 26.5 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 showed an increase to 87.9%, up 16.4 percentage points [3] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its high market share and pricing power, with potential recovery in gypsum board margins if demand stabilizes [4] - Expansion into new product categories and accelerated mergers and acquisitions are anticipated, with existing channel resources expected to generate quick sales growth [4] - Projected earnings for 2025 and 2026 are 3.34 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.9 and 10.1 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year, totaling 19.905 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit drop of 17.77% to 2.586 billion yuan [3][9]. - The gypsum board business is under pressure, but the waterproof and coating segments are expected to maintain growth due to the company's strong background and resource advantages [9]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, slightly down from the previous year, indicating stable profitability despite market challenges [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77% [3][9]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 6.347 billion yuan, a decline of 6.20%, while net profit fell by 29.47% to 0.657 billion yuan [3][9]. Business Segments - The gypsum board segment is facing significant demand pressure, leading to expected declines in both price and sales volume [9]. - The waterproof business is projected to grow, leveraging the company's state-owned enterprise background and financial strength [9]. - The coating segment, following the consolidation of Jia Baoli, is also expected to benefit from the company's distribution channels and client connections [9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, down approximately 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, with Q3 gross margin at 27.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points [9]. - The company maintained a relatively stable operating quality, with a cash collection ratio of 82.8% for the first three quarters, slightly down from the previous year [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in gross margins if demand stabilizes, with ongoing structural adjustments potentially leading to higher profitability [9]. - The expansion of product categories and potential mergers and acquisitions are anticipated to accelerate growth, particularly in the waterproof and coating segments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese building materials industry is at a critical juncture of transformation, moving from a "building materials powerhouse" to a "building materials stronghold," with a focus on "green," "high-end," "digital," and "international" development [2][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 19.905 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.655 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.586 billion yuan [3]. - The company invested 816 million yuan in R&D, focusing on high-performance waterproof materials and special functional coatings [3]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company is transitioning from a B2B to a C2C strategy, expanding its high-end paint business with over 300 new stores and integrating various product categories to provide comprehensive home decoration solutions [4]. - Emphasizing both brand and service quality is key to increasing market share in the C-end market, ensuring consumer trust in product quality and delivery [4]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - The company has established a "one body, two wings" strategy, achieving over 65% market share in gypsum board and positioning itself among the top in the waterproof and coating sectors [5]. - The company aims to balance market share and profitability in its gypsum board business while enhancing its competitive edge through innovation and resource optimization [5]. Group 4: Global Expansion - The global building materials market is projected to reach $2.5 trillion by 2025, with China accounting for over 20% of this market [7]. - The company has seen a 66% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with successful projects in Thailand, Tanzania, and Uzbekistan [7][8]. - The company is adapting its products and marketing strategies to meet diverse regional market demands, including developing anti-mold technology for the Kazakhstan market [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to deepen its focus on traditional inorganic non-metallic and organic polymer fields, increasing R&D investment in green building materials and system solutions [8]. - The goal is to transition from a manufacturing enterprise to a platform enterprise, enhancing brand integration and differentiation to lead in both technology and brand value [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 29.17 CNY, reflecting a 15x PE for 2025 [4][7]. Core Views - The company's main business of gypsum board continues to face pressure, with a 17.8% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters, totaling 2.59 billion CNY [1]. - Despite the challenges in the gypsum board segment, the company is experiencing growth in its two wings of business, particularly in waterproofing and coatings, benefiting from an increase in market share [2]. - The company is focusing on a strategy that combines organic growth with external expansion, aiming for high-quality development in niche markets [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenues of 19.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.59 billion CNY, down 17.8% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 13.3%, down 2.4 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.54 billion CNY, a decrease of 43.1% year-on-year, although the decline in Q3 was less severe at 13.3% [3]. Market Conditions - The price of gypsum board is expected to continue declining due to sustained pressure on demand, with a 16.8% year-on-year drop in housing completion area impacting demand [2]. - The company is implementing product upgrades and expanding into home decoration and rural markets to mitigate market decline and stabilize prices [2]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.31 billion CNY, 3.86 billion CNY, and 4.41 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting adjustments due to the declining gypsum board prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the company's "one body, two wings" strategy to yield positive results in the future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to pressure in its gypsum board business, while its two wings business segments showed growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.531 billion yuan, down 17.52% [1] - For Q3 alone, revenue was 6.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.20%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 655 million yuan, down 29.47%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 639 million yuan, down 29.79% [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 29.53% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the expense ratio increased by 0.86 percentage points to 14.27% [2] - The net profit margin fell by 2.37 percentage points to 13.14% [2] - Operating cash flow was 1.539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.13% [2] Business Segments - The gypsum board business faced challenges due to insufficient demand, intensified competition, and price declines, while the two wings business segments continued to grow [1] - The company plans to maintain a development strategy that combines internal growth and external expansion, focusing on niche markets to create new performance growth drivers [1] International Expansion - The company is advancing its overseas layout, focusing on regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Europe, and the Mediterranean [3] - An intention to acquire 100% of a foreign construction materials company was announced in August 2025, which could accelerate the expansion of its overseas business [3] Investment Outlook - The company is accelerating its "one body, two wings, global layout" strategy, with significant long-term value expected [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.364 billion, 3.959 billion, and 4.432 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.98, 2.33, and 2.61 yuan per share [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's main business of gypsum board is under pressure, leading to a larger decline in revenue and profit, while its two wings (waterproof and paint businesses) continue to grow [2][4] - The company aims to combine internal growth with external expansion, focusing on niche markets to create new performance growth points [2] - The company is advancing its "one body, two wings, global layout" strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term value [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77% [1][7] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 6.347 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year, and net profit was 657 million yuan, down 29.47% [1][7] - The gross margin decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 29.53%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.37 percentage points to 13.14% [3] Business Segment Performance - The company's gypsum board business is facing challenges due to insufficient demand and intensified competition, resulting in price declines [2] - The waterproof and paint businesses are performing well, contributing positively to overall growth [2][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.364 billion yuan, 3.959 billion yuan, and 4.432 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.98 yuan, 2.33 yuan, and 2.61 yuan for the same years [4]