来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近期A股整体呈现震荡上行格局，市场成交维持高位，赚钱效应明 显修复。与此同时，主要宽基指数涨跌互现，市场风格分化进一步加剧。代表大盘蓝筹的上证50和沪深 300指数表现较弱，而中证500和中证1000等中小盘指数则大幅领涨。逆周期调节政策落地后，春季行情 将如何演绎？市场结构性分化会否延续？请看本周机构研判。 中信证券：市场信心持续恢复中 消费链的增配时点就是当下 近期宽基ETF的赎回规模继续放大，在此背景下，不同行业和个股的承接力相差较大。从结构上来看， 主动型机构超配的板块和个股在宽基ETF赎回潮中反而超额收益更明显。往后看，市场信心处于持续恢 复过程中，只要估值处于相对低位、具备增长逻辑且非宽基权重股的行业，预计都将出现修复。其中消 费链的增配时点就是当下到3月前后，地产链亦可能在此阶段发生明显修复。 此外，在"资源+传统制造定价权重估"的基本思路下，围绕化工、有色、新能源、电力设备构建的基础 组合，仍然是优先配置方向。在此基础上，投资者可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分内需 品种（如免税、航空、建材等）或高景气品种（半导体设备、材 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth and Structure - In 2025, Wenzhou's GDP is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, reaching 10213.9 billion yuan, marking it as a "trillion-dollar city" [1] - The private economy constitutes over 90% of Wenzhou's economic structure, with nearly 1.6 million registered private enterprises and individual businesses [3] - Wenzhou's economic growth is supported by innovation in the private sector, with significant contributions from industries such as electrical, footwear, new energy, and artificial intelligence [3][4] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Wenzhou has established a city-level artificial intelligence bureau and is focusing on emerging sectors like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy [4] - In 2025, the city's industrial added value is expected to grow by 10.3%, with strategic emerging industries and high-tech sectors seeing increases of 14.4% and 11.8% respectively [4] - The city has developed significant industrial clusters in electrical and new energy sectors, with the electrical industry recognized as a national advanced manufacturing cluster [6] Group 3: Openness and Connectivity - Wenzhou is enhancing its role as a national comprehensive transportation hub, with a focus on developing a near-ocean shipping center and a regional international aviation hub [7][8] - The port's cargo throughput is projected to reach 100.86 million tons by 2025, positioning Wenzhou among the "billion-ton ports" [7] - The total import and export volume is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, with trade networks extending to 237 countries and regions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Transportation Investment Group is focusing on transforming traditional transportation and nurturing emerging industries to achieve high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant growth in assets and revenue [1][12]. Group 1: Traditional Transportation Transformation - The company has successfully managed 77 major transportation infrastructure projects with a total investment of nearly 178 billion yuan, completing investments of approximately 32.1 billion yuan [1]. - Key projects include the extension of Tongjing Road, the Su-Tai Expressway, and the expansion of Suzhou North Station, contributing to Suzhou's development as a national comprehensive transportation hub [1]. Group 2: Digital Transformation in Highway Management - The company is leading the digital transformation in highway management, with the first holographic perception smart highway for vehicle-road collaboration completed during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - A total of 36 toll stations and 256 lanes have undergone digital transformation, with plans to upgrade all 45 toll stations by 2026 [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industry Development - 2025 marks the beginning of the new quality productivity development year for the company, focusing on eight emerging industries including new energy and new materials [6]. - The "Super Charging" network for new energy charging terminals has seen a growth of 245.1%, and new materials have been successfully applied in over 30 projects [8]. Group 4: AI Integration and Innovation - The company is actively engaging in the AI sector, launching the Suzhou AI Innovation Application Laboratory and applying AI technology in various operational areas [10]. - The first data product, the "Toll Evasion Audit Model Data Set," has been introduced, marking a step towards market-oriented data exploration [10]. Group 5: Party Building and State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The company emphasizes high-quality party building to drive high-quality development, establishing a "Pioneer Party Building" system with 70 regulations and 80 case studies [12][14]. - The company has introduced 263 talents during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on developing a high-quality talent team to support its transformation [14]. Group 6: Future Development Goals - The company aims to achieve a comprehensive transportation and financial group with 10 billion yuan in revenue and 100 billion yuan in assets, positioning itself as a leading state-owned enterprise in China [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, while the ChiNext Index is down 0.34% and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 2.41% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - CITIC Securities reports that market confidence is gradually recovering, suggesting that sectors with logical narratives at relatively low valuations may see recovery [1] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the short-term market will continue to exhibit a differentiated pattern, supported by high elasticity sectors attracting new capital and a stable RMB exchange rate [2] - Huajin Securities notes that the short-term economic and profit recovery trends are weak, with PPI expected to rise and A-share profits maintaining a structural recovery trend [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends increasing allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and enhancing returns through domestic demand or high-growth sectors [1] - Zhongtai Securities anticipates that after the Spring Festival, the market's pricing logic will shift from risk preference and valuation expansion to performance verification and profit growth [2] - Everbright Securities advises investors to maintain a steady approach and hold stocks through the holiday, predicting a new upward momentum post-Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Sector Focus - Everbright Securities highlights sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals as key areas of focus, depending on market style [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is noted for its recent recovery, with specific sub-sectors like space computing and upstream materials expected to remain active [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes that the recent cooling in the market affects the rhythm and structure rather than the overall trend, with the core logic supporting the upward spring market remaining unchanged. The current spring market is still in progress, and although the market rhythm has slowed, the upward trend continues, with the profit effect expanding to a broader range [1]. Group 1: Liquidity and Catalysts - A liquidity-rich environment is the core driving force supporting the upward trend of the spring market, stemming from the strong performance of insurance funds and the influx of foreign capital due to the appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - Insurance funds have shown impressive performance in the "opening red" period, with individual insurance premium growth rates exceeding 30% for leading companies, and some companies' individual insurance premiums surpassing 10 billion [1]. - The first half of this year is expected to see a peak in the maturity of residents' fixed deposits, creating an important window for residents to increase their allocation to equity assets [2]. - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is attracting foreign capital back to the market, with a record high of $99.9 billion in bank foreign exchange settlement surplus in December 2025, including a $11.5 billion surplus in securities investment [2]. Group 2: Market Structure and Performance - The current market is characterized by a warm macro environment and supportive policies, which are enhancing market risk appetite and driving the profit effect to expand across various sectors [3]. - The upcoming week will feature a concentrated window for industry catalysts, particularly with the earnings reports from North American tech giants, which may influence the domestic market [4]. - The earnings preview period is approaching its peak, with a disclosure rate expected to reach around 55%, which will significantly impact market structure [4][7]. Group 3: Earnings Forecasts and Sector Focus - As of January 23, 2025, 889 A-share listed companies have released earnings forecasts, with 304 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, primarily in sectors such as computing, chemicals, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology [5][6]. - The sectors with high growth or exceeding expectations in earnings forecasts include storage, new energy (battery storage, grid equipment), chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - The report highlights that industries with low price increases during the current market rally include AI hardware, new energy, and various cyclical sectors [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - February is anticipated to be a core window for bullish market activity, with a typical pattern of market volatility driven by liquidity and risk appetite, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors [9]. - The report suggests that themes such as AI applications, commercial space, and energy narratives should be revisited as they may gain renewed attention in February [9].

Group 1 - The economic operation characteristic of "production stronger than demand, external demand better than internal demand" has persisted throughout the year, with macroeconomic indicators showing weakness and a loose monetary policy environment [2][3][6] - Industrial production remains resilient, with December's industrial added value growing by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][36] - The export amount in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, also better than expected [6][36] Group 2 - Recent weeks have seen a significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, exceeding 570 billion yuan, while thematic industry ETFs have seen inflows of around 110 billion yuan [3][12][43] - The current market sentiment remains high, with investor sentiment indices indicating a state of excitement, suggesting potential short-term risks [10][40] Group 3 - The focus on investment should be on "technology + resource products," with AI semiconductors and new energy being the core areas of current prosperity [4][35] - Emerging hotspots such as AI applications, space photovoltaics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are continuously catalyzing market interest [4][50][51] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance rate for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][54] - The South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5% since December, while energy and industrial product indices have only increased by about 7%, suggesting better investment value in the non-ferrous sector [5][54] Group 5 - The AI and semiconductor sectors maintain high levels of prosperity, driven by demand for AI model training and inference, which boosts the associated supply chain [50] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery, supported by growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - Wenzhou is set to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan by 2025, reaching 1,021.39 billion yuan, marking its entry into the "trillion club" through a focus on reform, openness, and innovation [1] Group 1: Private Economy - The private economy is a crucial driving force for Wenzhou's socio-economic development, with over 90% of enterprises, industrial added value, employment, exports, and tax revenue coming from this sector [3] - Wenzhou has nearly 1.6 million registered private enterprises and individual businesses, showcasing its entrepreneurial spirit and robust industrial chain [3] - The "Wenzhou model" emphasizes a "small commodities, large market" approach, fostering rapid growth in light manufacturing and specialized markets [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Wenzhou is focusing on technological innovation as a key driver, with significant growth in strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries, and core digital economy sectors, with respective increases of 14.4%, 11.8%, and 16.4% in manufacturing value added by 2025 [4] - The establishment of the China Intelligent Valley has attracted 435 AI companies, enhancing the local industrial chain from algorithm development to smart terminals [4] - Traditional industries are transforming alongside the cultivation of new leading industries, propelling Wenzhou onto a path of high-quality development [4] Group 3: Openness and Connectivity - Wenzhou is enhancing its connectivity through the construction of a comprehensive transportation hub, with a cargo throughput of 100.86 million tons by 2025, positioning it as a key player in global logistics [7] - The city has implemented a 240-hour visa-free transit policy at its air and sea ports, facilitating international trade and tourism [7] - By 2025, Wenzhou's total import and export volume is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, with trade networks extending to 237 countries and regions, demonstrating the multiplier effect of openness [8]

Core Viewpoint - The redemption scale of broad-based ETFs continues to expand without signs of slowing down, impacting various industries and individual stocks differently, with a notable effect on sectors and stocks that institutions are underweighting [1][2][3] Group 1: ETF Redemption Dynamics - The redemption of broad-based ETFs has led to a significant change in the ETF market structure, with cumulative net redemptions of 8,458 billion yuan since October 2024, while industry/theme ETFs have seen net subscriptions of 5,864 billion yuan [3] - As of January 23, 2026, the total scale of broad-based ETFs is approximately 20,574 billion yuan, with industry/theme ETFs at 15,115 billion yuan, representing 42% of the total [3] - The redemption behavior of broad-based ETFs is perceived more as a profit-taking strategy rather than a means to cool down the market, indicating strong market sentiment and active trading [4] Group 2: Sector Performance and Opportunities - During the recent redemption period, 86 stocks in the CSI 300 index outperformed the index by over 2%, primarily in the electronics, electric new energy, and chemical sectors, while 121 companies underperformed, mainly in non-bank financials and pharmaceuticals [5] - The consumer chain is expected to see increased allocation from now until the Two Sessions, with travel consumption leading the recovery, and the market is pricing in positive changes in consumer sentiment [7][8] - The real estate chain may also experience significant recovery, with signs of market stabilization in new home transactions and rental yields in major cities [9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A strategy focusing on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing power" is recommended, emphasizing sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment, which are expected to provide stable returns amid market fluctuations [10] - Investors are encouraged to increase allocations to non-bank financials and select domestic demand sectors, such as duty-free, aviation, and quality real estate developers, to capture potential policy changes and enhance returns [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity-rich environment continues to support the upward trend of the spring market, with expectations for further catalysts in the near future [1] Group 1: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The abundant liquidity is a core driver for the current spring market rally, supported by strong insurance premium inflows and the maturity of resident deposits, alongside the appreciation of the RMB attracting foreign capital [5][7] - Insurance companies have reported significant growth in individual insurance premiums, with many companies exceeding a 30% growth rate, contributing to a substantial influx of new capital into the market [5] - The peak maturity of resident deposits is expected in the first half of the year, providing an opportunity for residents to increase their allocation to equity assets, particularly in the first quarter [5] Group 2: Performance Expectations and Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings reports from North American tech giants are anticipated to influence the domestic market, particularly in sectors related to AI and computing power [10][12] - As of January 23, 2025, 889 A-share companies have released earnings forecasts, with 304 companies expecting a net profit growth rate exceeding 50%, primarily in sectors such as computing power, chemicals, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [15][18] - The current earnings forecasts indicate that sectors with high growth and exceeding expectations include storage, battery storage, grid equipment, chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [18] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Industries with high growth potential and relatively low price increases include AI hardware, batteries, and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to attract investor attention [22][25] - The sectors with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials, indicating a positive trend for these industries [25][26] - February is projected to be a key period for market activity, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and energy narratives, suggesting renewed interest in these themes [29][32]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that market confidence is continuously recovering, and sectors that are relatively low and logically sound, but not in broad-weighted industries, are expected to see recovery [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - The consumer chain is identified as a key area for allocation, particularly from now until after the Two Sessions, focusing on expected trading [1] - The real estate chain may also experience significant recovery during this period, with the construction materials sector already showing signs of improvement [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A foundational portfolio is constructed around chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment, based on the principle of "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing power" [1] - This portfolio serves as an anxiety-reducing allocation choice amid the contradiction between the desire for growth and regulatory counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - There is a recommendation to increase allocation in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) at low points, while enhancing returns through certain domestic demand varieties or high-prosperity sectors [1]