1月19日，Counterpoint Research发布的最新报告显示，受存储短缺导致价格上涨影响，2025年第四季度 中国智能手机出货量同比下降1.6%，全年同比下降0.6%。除第一季度外，2025年其余季度均录得同比 收缩。 从第四季度来看，苹果以21.8%的市场份额领跑国内市场，OPPO以15.8%的市场份额位居第二，vivo以 15.7%的份额紧随其后，华为、小米、荣耀分别排名第四至第六。从全年来看，华为以16.9%的市场份 额夺得榜首，但前三名并未拉开明显差距。苹果、vivo分别以16.7%、16.4%的市场份额位列第二、第三 名。小米（15.7%）、OPPO（15.5%）、荣耀（13.4%）分列第四至第六。 1月22日，苹果中国官网上线新春限时优惠活动，用户于2026年1月24日0时1分至1月27日23时59分以符 合条件的支付方式购买iPhone、Mac、iPad和Apple Watch等指定产品，最高可立省1000元。 不过观察者网注意到，最新发布的iPhone 17系列手机产品不在降价范围内。 该机构分析认为，苹果四季度出货量同比大增28%，得益于iPhone 17系列的强劲吸引力和供应量 ...

Core Insights - The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure by U.S. tech firms is significantly impacting the global memory chip supply, leading to increased prices as manufacturers prioritize data center components over consumer devices [1][12] Industry Overview - Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the top three memory chip producers, are struggling to meet demand, reporting strong quarterly earnings due to rising semiconductor prices [2][12] - Research firms IDC and Counterpoint predict a decline in global smartphone sales by at least 2% this year, marking the first annual drop since 2023 [3][12] - The PC market is expected to contract by at least 4.9% in 2026, following an 8.1% growth last year, while console sales are projected to decrease by 4.4% this year after a 5.8% growth in 2025 [4][12] Manufacturer Challenges - Manufacturers like Apple and Dell face difficult decisions regarding whether to absorb rising costs or pass them onto consumers, risking demand suppression [5][12] - Analysts expect that the ongoing price increases will lead to weaker consumer device sales in 2026, compounded by broader inflationary pressures [6][12] - Counterpoint estimates memory prices could rise by 40% to 50% in Q1, following a 50% surge last year [6][12] Price Inflation Impact - Some products have experienced a staggering 1,000% price inflation over the last two quarters, with consumers likely to see significantly higher prices for laptops, mobile phones, wearables, and gaming devices soon [7][12] - The impact of rising prices is expected to be most severe for low- and mid-range device manufacturers, including Chinese smartphone makers like Xiaomi and PC firms like Lenovo [7][12] Stock Market Reactions - Shares of companies such as Raspberry Pi, Xiaomi, Dell, HP Inc., and Lenovo fell in the last quarter of 2025, with Xiaomi experiencing a notable 27.2% decline [8][12] - HP has announced plans to raise PC prices due to significant memory chip costs, while Raspberry Pi's CEO described the cost surge as "painful" [8][12] Retail Sector Implications - The weaker demand outlook may negatively affect sales at electronics retailers like Best Buy, which had previously warned that tariff-driven price increases could deter potential buyers [9][12] Company-Specific Insights - Apple is considered better positioned to handle the memory chip price surge due to its scale, pricing power, and supplier network, typically maintaining stable prices for its flagship iPhone lineup [11][12] - Apple has absorbed substantial tariff-related costs in the past without passing them on to customers, although it may need to raise prices to cover higher input costs [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is set to release its AI glasses in the first half of this year, featuring various functionalities and a lightweight design, supported by the HarmonyOS for seamless cross-device collaboration [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features and Market Trends - The upcoming Huawei AI glasses will come in three colors and support functions such as photo and video capture, audio playback, and real-time translation [1]. - The global smart eyewear market is projected to see significant growth, with an expected shipment of 4.296 million units by Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 74.1% [3]. - The Chinese market is also expected to grow, with a forecasted shipment of 4.508 million units by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.7% [3]. Group 2: Industry Competition and Consumer Sentiment - Major tech companies, including Meta, Google, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Baidu, are entering the AI glasses market, indicating a shift from niche products to a growing demand for smart eyewear [3]. - Despite the high interest in smart glasses, consumer feedback highlights concerns over the redundancy of features compared to smartphones, comfort issues due to weight, and battery life limitations [4]. - The market is transitioning from viewing smart glasses as smartphone accessories to recognizing them as independent smart devices, with AI integration becoming more prevalent [4]. Group 3: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The introduction of government subsidies for smart glasses priced under 6000 yuan, offering a 15% discount up to 500 yuan, is expected to encourage consumer adoption [4]. - The competition in the smart eyewear market is shifting towards user experience, with comfort, practical AI functionalities, and ecosystem completeness becoming critical factors [5]. - Leading manufacturers are focusing on ecosystem collaboration and innovative scenarios to transform smart glasses from novelty items to everyday smart assistants [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report centers on the **China Technology and Communications** sector, with a specific emphasis on AI opportunities in computing, networking, edges, and agents [1][30]. - **Market Outlook**: Despite three years of outperformance compared to MSCI China, there are high expectations and macro/sector risks anticipated for 2026 [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Trends**: H shares are preferred over A shares, with H shares trading 0.5 standard deviations above the 10-year historical forward P/E averages, while A shares are trading above 2 standard deviations [1][30]. - **AI Opportunities**: The report emphasizes embracing AI opportunities across various sectors, particularly in computing and networking, with localization in China being a significant factor [1]. - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include upstream supply issues, material cost increases, and downstream project delivery challenges [1]. - **Stock Recommendations**: - **Hardware/Components**: Luxshare, DSBJ, Lens Tech, Conant, TCL are preferred. - **Semiconductors**: Montage is highlighted. - **Software**: Kingdee is favored. - **Communication Infrastructure**: Eoptolink and TFC are recommended [1][2]. Market Projections - **Smartphone Shipments**: A forecasted decline of 5% YoY for global and China smartphone shipments in 2026, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) by 7% and 5% respectively [1]. - **Foldable Smartphones**: Anticipated shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to reach 20 million in 2025, 29 million in 2026, and 45 million in 2027, driven by the foldable iPhone [1]. - **Camera Lens Shipments**: Expected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2 billion in 2026, and back to 4.4 billion in 2027 [1]. - **AI Glasses**: Global shipments are expected to reach 15 million in 2026, representing a 123% YoY increase [1]. - **AI-PCB Demand**: Total demand for AI-PCB is projected to be RMB 96 billion (US$ 13 billion) in 2026, with a growth rate of 101% YoY [1]. - **Optical Transceiver Market**: Expected to reach US$ 37.4 billion in 2026, with significant shipment increases [1]. Subsector Preferences - **Sector Performance**: Semiconductor sector is expected to lag behind hardware and communication infrastructure, with a projected earnings growth of 52% YoY for semiconductors in 2026 [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Preference for semiconductor stocks, followed by communication and hardware, with IT services and software being the least favored [1][30]. Additional Insights - **Foreign Investment Trends**: Increased foreign investment in A-share tech names, with a notable rise in holdings in the overall A-share technology sector [13]. - **IPO Activity**: Anticipation of several IPOs in 1H26, which could provide quality tech names for investors [1][30]. - **Market Volatility**: Expected volatility in 1H26 due to high expectations for AI and potential market corrections [30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the China Technology and Communications sector's outlook for 2026.

| | 遭公司 | 值老板: 重关系 管风险 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 锤子科技(成都)股份有限公司 | 8 天厨一下 品应用 · | 商务合作 企业级产品。 | | ▲ 此处有 ... · | | 基本信息 576 | 法律诉讼 15 | 经营风险 | 经营信息 520 公司发展 26 | 知识产权 270 | | 历史信息 117.0 | | 工商信息 ● | | | | | | 7天眼查 | | Alle 工商信息 历史工南信息 | | | | | 工商官网快报》 | ■ 骨出 | | 企业名称 | 锤子科技(成都)股份有限公司 曾用名 锤子科技(北京) 有限公司 更多1 | | | | | | | 法定代表人 | 管志良 猛关联企业 10 | 登记状态 7 | 存续 | 天眼评分 > | 80 | | | | | 成立日期 | 2012-05-28 | | | | | 统一社会信用代码 | 91510100MAC4CHQW16 | 注册资本 > | 3149,7963万人民币 | 实缴资本 | 3149.79 ...

编辑｜瑜见 苹果中国官网最新上线新春限时优惠活动，用户于2026年1月24日0时1分至1月27日23时59分以符合条件 的支付方式购买iPhone、Mac、iPad和Apple watch等指定产品最高立省1000元。但最新发布的iPhone 17 系列手机产品不在降价范围内。 记者｜钱童心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is offering discounts of up to 1,000 yuan ($143.60) on selected products in China from January 24 to January 27 [1] Group 1: Discounts and Promotions - The discount applies to designated iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch models [1]

Core Insights - The top three smartphone brands in China by activation volume in 2025 are vivo, Xiaomi, and Apple, with vivo maintaining the first position despite a slight decline in activation volume [1][5] - Xiaomi surpassed Apple to claim the second position, largely due to the success of the Xiaomi 17 series, which includes models with activation volumes exceeding one million [2][6] - The activation volume gap between the top five brands is minimal, with less than 3 million units separating vivo from Huawei, indicating a highly competitive market where a single popular model can significantly influence brand rankings [1][5] Brand Performance Summary - **Vivo**: Ranked first with an activation volume of 4,635.70 thousand units, a market share of 16.77%, and a year-on-year decline of 2.58% from 4,758.52 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] - **Xiaomi**: Ranked second with an activation volume of 4,588.45 thousand units, a market share of 16.60%, and a year-on-year growth of 5.41% from 4,352.78 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] - **Apple**: Ranked third with an activation volume of 4,520.65 thousand units, a market share of 16.35%, and a year-on-year growth of 9.34% from 4,134.30 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] - **OPPO**: Ranked fourth with an activation volume of 4,399.58 thousand units, a market share of 15.91%, and a year-on-year growth of 7.63% from 4,087.78 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] - **Huawei**: Ranked fifth with an activation volume of 4,340.02 thousand units, a market share of 15.70%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.96% from 4,382.18 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] - **Others**: The remaining brands collectively accounted for 5,164.91 thousand units, with a market share of 18.68% and a year-on-year decline of 8.93% from 5,671.15 thousand units in 2024 [2][6] Market Dynamics - The competition among the top brands is extremely tight, with minor differences in activation volumes leading to significant shifts in rankings [5][9] - The timing of new product launches, such as the Huawei Mate 80 series, can greatly impact market standings, suggesting that strategic release schedules are crucial for maintaining competitive positions [5][8] - Xiaomi's Lu Weibing emphasized the intense competition in the Chinese market, indicating that the leading positions are very fragile and require continuous effort to maintain [9]

人民财讯1月22日电，苹果中国官网最新上线新春限时优惠活动，用户于2026年1月24日0时1分至1月27 日23时59分以符合条件的支付方式购买iPhone、Mac、iPad和Apple Watch等指定产品最高立省1000元。 但最新发布的iPhone17系列手机产品不在降价范围内。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月22日，苹果中国官网最新上线新春限时优惠活动，用户于2026年1月24日0时1分至1月 27日23时59分以符合条件的支付方式购买iPhone、Mac、iPad和Apple Watch等指定产品最高立省1000 元。但最新发布的iPhone17系列手机产品不在降价范围内。 ...