2025年5月14日 行情宝明日猪价 01 明日猪价 | | | 行情宝5月14日价格参考 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 省份 | 猪价(元/公斤) | 涨跌 | | 东北 | 黑龙江 | 14.2-14.8 | 稳 | | | 吉林 | 14.0-15.0 | 稳 | | | 辽宁 | 13.9-15.0 | 弱稳 | | 华北 | 内蒙古 | 14.4-15.0 | 稳 | | | 山西 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | | 河北 | 14.7-15.3 | 稳 | | | 河南 | 14.6-15.4 | 稳 | | से | 湖北 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | | 湖南 | 14.2-14.7 | 稳 | | | 江西 | 214.4-15.2 | 稳 | | 华东 | 川东 | 2 14.9-15.6 | 稳 | | | 安徽う | 15.1-15.5 | 稳 | | | 浙江 | 15.2-15.7 | 稳 | | | 江苏 | 15.3-15.7 | 稳 | | | 福建 | 14.6-15.1 | 稳 | | 中南 | 广东 | 14 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.15 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country continued to rise today. The national average price of culled chickens is 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [3][6][9]. - **Inventory**: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of May 1st, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.03 days and 0.05 days respectively compared to the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 1st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2nd, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides 15 charts, including the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the price of egg - laying hen chicks, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens and future inventory projections, various spreads and basis, and the profit expectations of egg - laying hen farming and the single - jin average profit trend of fresh eggs [13][17][21][25][29][40][42].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 242 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.58% [2] - The company has consistently focused on cash dividends to improve shareholder returns over the past three years [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing some pig farms while planning new constructions, with all capacity adjustments based on strict cost-benefit analysis [1] - The decrease in pig output is attributed to the closure of inefficient farms, which is part of the strategy to enhance management efficiency and production quality [2] - The company has implemented measures to control breeding costs, including optimizing production management and improving breeding efficiency [2] Group 3: Market and Investment Concerns - The company acknowledges the current low stock price and dividend yield, emphasizing compliance and steady development to enhance intrinsic value [2] - The company is exploring other projects in line with the Hainan Free Trade Port policies to provide returns to investors, especially in light of the stagnation of the horse racing project [2] - As of May 10, 2025, the total number of shareholders was approximately 99,300 [2] Group 4: Asset Management - The Yangpu flour mill has faced operational challenges due to high logistics costs and has been strategically suspended to focus on core profitable businesses [3] - The company is considering asset disposal or transformation plans for the flour mill based on market conditions [3] - The company has not planned any developments related to the horse racing project and has no current arrangements for it [4]

Core Viewpoint - The beef and dairy cattle market in China has shown signs of recovery in 2023 after a period of low prices in the previous year, aided by a series of relief policies implemented by various departments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since March 2023, the market price of beef has gradually rebounded, particularly in Jilin Province, a key beef production area, where significant price increases have been observed in April [3][5]. - The price of live cattle has influenced the beef market, with reports indicating a bustling trading environment in major live cattle markets in northern regions [5][7]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Jilin Province allocated 47.75 million yuan to implement a comprehensive program for free distribution of high-quality beef cattle frozen semen, aimed at improving cattle quality and reducing breeding costs [9]. - The province has also introduced a subsidy policy for "stalk and ear collection" to transition cattle feeding from traditional dry straw to fermented silage, enhancing feed quality [11]. Group 3: Production Efficiency - Farmers report that cattle fed with fermented feed yield significantly more meat compared to those fed with dry straw, with an increase of 50-80 pounds per 500-pound cattle [13]. - The focus on improving cattle utilization efficiency and reducing feeding costs is expected to enhance overall production capacity, benefiting farmers [15].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-13 中大猪出栏增加，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13870元/吨，较前交易日变动-55.00元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.07元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1200，较前交易日变动+55；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 15.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1340，较前交易日变动+15；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.61元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+740，较前交易日变动+55。 据农业农村部监测，5月12日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.52，比上周五下降0.20个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为115.91，比上周五上升0.10个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.85元/公斤，比上周五上升1.1%； 牛肉62.98元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%；羊肉59.94元/公斤，比上周五上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.98元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.3%；白条鸡17.27元/公斤，比上周五下降0 ...

Industry Overview - In 2024, the growth of sow production capacity is expected to be slow, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025, which may result in better-than-expected pig prices [1] - The average national pig price in Q1 2025 is reported at 15.0 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.6% [1] - The total pig output from listed companies in Q1 2025 reached 47.59 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 26% and accounting for 24% of the national output [1] Company Performance - Major listed pig companies turned profitable in Q1 2025, primarily due to favorable pig prices, declining feed costs, and improved production efficiency [2] - The total profit for 16 listed pig companies in Q1 2025 was 8.2 billion CNY, with operating cash flow reaching 13.1 billion CNY, leading to a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio by 0.2 percentage points to 60% [2] - The construction projects and capital expenditures of major listed pig companies continued to decline, with year-on-year decreases of 41% and 25%, respectively, due to cautious expectations regarding future pig prices [2] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on high-quality pig companies with significant cost advantages and strong performance delivery capabilities, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group and Dongrui Co., Ltd. [1]

仔猪价格涨跌互现 周均价刷新7个半月高点 金十期货5月13日讯，养殖端补栏情绪分化，部分地区补栏积极性依然较强，国内仔猪价格涨跌互现， 周均价进一步攀升，刷新7个半月高点。据对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，5月第1周全国仔猪 平均价格39.57元/公斤，比前一周上涨0.1%，刷新7个半月高点，同比上涨3.8%。新疆、浙江、上海、 天津、青海等14个省份仔猪价格上涨，贵州、湖北、山西、河南、重庆等13个省份仔猪价格下跌，内 蒙、湖南价格持平。华北地区价格较高，为41.85元/公斤；西南地区价格较低，为37.24元/公斤。 （农 业农村部） ...

养殖户状告牧原销售病猪，一审判了！ 据智通财经报道，5月12日，牧原股份出示的民事判决书显示，其子公司南阳市卧龙牧原养殖有限公司 （简称卧龙牧原）与内乡县鸿福农牧有限公司（简称鸿福农牧）的合同纠纷案迎来一审判决。 河南省内乡县人民法院认为，鸿福农牧提交的证据不能证明卧龙牧原违反合同约定和相关规定，也不能 证明混群销售、接种血清制品或开展对型免疫等措施会引起蓝耳病毒的发生，亦不能证明其场区的蓝耳 病毒因卧龙牧原交付的生猪而感染，驳回其686.746万元索赔请求。 据上海证券报报道，该诉讼案在4月10日至11日进行为期两天的庭审，双方围绕各自主张，提交证据。 双方争议主要有二：一是被告卧龙牧原交付生猪是否符合合同约定，检疫是否符合法律规定；二是原告 鸿福农牧法定代表人常先云养殖场猪群死亡，是否因卧龙牧原销售的怀孕母猪所致。 针对上述判决结果，卧龙牧原相关负责人表示，公司严格履行合同约定，交付的生猪质量健康，经检验 检疫合格，符合合同约定，不存在质量问题。 原告代理律师李巧霞表示，不服法院一审判决，将提起上诉。 购买100多头母猪后暴发传染病 常先云介绍，种猪到达原告猪场当日即出现较强的应激反应，其中一头一胎怀孕母 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is crucial for national economy and people's livelihood, with the government emphasizing support for stable development in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - China is a major player in the livestock industry, with a projected production of 96.63 million tons of meat from pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry in 2024, reflecting a 0.2% increase from the previous year [1]. - The industry is experiencing rapid modernization through the adoption of new technologies such as IoT, blockchain, and AI, transitioning from traditional farming methods to green and intelligent farming [1][3]. - The livestock sector plays a vital role in ensuring food security, increasing farmers' income, and promoting rural revitalization [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The livestock industry faces multiple challenges, including increased competition from imported products, limited financial support, insufficient domestic supply of breeding stock and feed, and shrinking profit margins [2]. - The government report emphasizes the need for policy support to stabilize the livestock and fishery sectors, focusing on enhancing supply security and accelerating industrial transformation [2]. - A comprehensive supply chain system is proposed, integrating feed, breeding, slaughtering, and cold chain logistics to improve resilience and ensure stable production [2]. Group 3: Transformation and Upgrading - The industry is encouraged to shift from single farming to large-scale operations, promoting ecological circular models and integrated agricultural systems [3]. - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation and application, transitioning from speed-focused growth to quality and efficiency [3]. - Ensuring safety in ecological practices, animal disease prevention, product quality, and veterinary production is critical for the industry's sustainable development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The President of Mexico anticipates that the United States will soon resume imports of live cattle [1] Group 1 - The expectation of the U.S. resuming live cattle imports indicates a potential recovery in trade relations between Mexico and the U.S. [1]