每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.055 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 445 million yuan, up 15.20% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 2.46% [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.158 billion yuan, a decline of 1.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.30% to 152 million yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 16.82% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a stable revenue growth driven by wind energy (42% of revenue, up 23%), rail transportation (12%, up 26%), industrial engineering (10%, up 15%), and automotive (35%, up 4%). The total profit for the year is projected to be 521 million yuan, a 30.51% increase [9]. - The wind energy segment is anticipated to generate approximately 8.37 billion yuan in revenue, with a sales volume of about 21.2 GW, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year. The average price per MW is expected to be around 386,000 yuan, down 8% [9]. - The automotive segment is projected to turn profitable, with a revenue of 7.1 billion yuan, improving from a loss of 217 million yuan to a profit of 11 million yuan [9]. Segment Analysis - The rail transportation segment is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 11.0%, while the industrial engineering segment is projected to generate 1.92 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 10.4% [9]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue from rail transportation and industrial engineering declined significantly due to temporary factory relocations, impacting overall profitability [9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth across all segments in 2025, with wind energy expected to contribute the most to profit elasticity. The automotive segment is expected to solidify its turnaround, while rail transportation and industrial engineering may face short-term challenges due to factory relocations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, driven by a recovery in domestic wind power demand, but faced pressure on profitability due to low wind turbine prices and rising costs in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 624 million yuan, up 29.55% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.301 billion yuan, representing an 86.41% year-on-year increase, although it decreased by 13.94% compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 121 million yuan, a 39.14% increase year-on-year, with a slight quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.97% [2]. Group 2: Market and Product Performance - The company experienced a 9.58% increase in sales of casting products, totaling 490,400 tons, while revenue from ductile iron products decreased by 5.30% to 4.266 billion yuan [3]. - The gross margin for the company declined by 1.32 percentage points year-on-year to 17.34% in 2024, and further decreased by 6.24 percentage points to 15.53% in Q1 2025 [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The company has established an annual casting capacity of 700,000 tons and a precision processing capacity of 420,000 tons by the end of 2024, with plans to increase precision processing capacity to 540,000 tons [4]. - The company aims to benefit from the accelerated wind power construction in 2025, leveraging its sufficient production capacity [4]. Group 4: Business Diversification - The company is actively expanding into nuclear power and alloy steel sectors, with ongoing research in nuclear fuel storage and high-end alloy steel markets [5]. - In 2024, revenue from the alloy steel business reached 78 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.71%, with a gross margin increase of 1.35 percentage points to 4.73% [5].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance as domestic offshore wind construction is expected to accelerate [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00 percentage points to 15.05% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 1.355 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.63% year-on-year, but it turned a profit with a net profit of 66 million yuan [1][2]. - The offshore wind construction is anticipated to ramp up in 2025-2026, providing strong momentum for the company's performance recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.355 billion yuan, down 19.63% year-on-year, while net profit was 66 million yuan, recovering from a loss [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 436 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.63% [1]. Business Segments - The pile foundation business generated revenue of 854 million yuan in 2024, down 22.67%, with a gross margin decline of 6.03 percentage points to 4.29% [2]. - The wind tower segment saw revenue of 320 million yuan, a decrease of 18.71%, but with a gross margin increase of 4.38 percentage points to 7.90% [2]. - The jacket structure segment achieved revenue of 138 million yuan, up 6.82%, with a gross margin increase of 10.28 percentage points to 4.79% [2]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company will achieve net profits of 668 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.113 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.07, 4.07, and 5.12 yuan [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and planning new export bases to enhance its market presence [3].

Core Viewpoint - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant upward trend in demand and profitability, with a notable performance turnaround in Q1 2025, indicating a potential industry inflection point [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, reflecting sustained high demand [1][2]. - The wind power equipment sector achieved revenues of 37.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [1][2]. - The overall industry is expected to see a revenue of 192 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a challenging year ahead despite the positive Q1 performance [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Profitability - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a slowdown in power station transfers impacting earnings, highlighting the growing importance of manufacturing profitability [2]. - The average sales price of wind turbines for leading companies is projected to decrease to 1,550 yuan/kW in 2024, with limited further decline expected [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of casting and forging companies, driven by revenue structure adjustments and fixed cost amortization during a traditionally low-demand season [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in revenue and profitability, with key recommendations focusing on companies benefiting from domestic price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [4]. - Companies in the subsea cable and foundation segments, like Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth driven by high demand [4]. - The casting and blade segments, including Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co., are highlighted for their significant performance elasticity due to supply-demand tightness and price increases [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is a leader in wind power aerial work equipment, holding the top market share in the wind power segment. The continuous release of domestic wind power projects is expected to drive growth in the supply chain, significantly benefiting the company. Additionally, with controllable expenses and the expansion into non-wind power businesses, the company's profitability is anticipated to continue improving [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.299 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 315 million yuan, up 52% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 365 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year, and net profit was 77 million yuan, down 13% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 317 million yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 99 million yuan, up 69% year-on-year [4]. Business Segments - Wind power sales accounted for 97% of the company's main business revenue in 2024, totaling 1.25 billion yuan. The company is actively expanding into international markets and focusing on steady growth in its core business. Non-wind power sales were 35 million yuan, making up 3% of main business revenue. The company is also innovating in non-wind sectors, including industrial and construction lifting equipment and safety protection products [9]. Cost Management - The company has shown significant cost control, with a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expenses in 2024. Total expenses for sales, management, and R&D were 127 million, 118 million, and 85 million yuan respectively, with a combined year-on-year growth of only 0.7%. The expense ratio dropped to 25.4%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin in Q1 2025 reached 31.1%, an increase of approximately 7 percentage points year-on-year and 10 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. International Expansion - The company is enhancing its international presence, having established wholly-owned subsidiaries in the USA, Germany, India, Japan, and Brazil. It has a dedicated overseas sales team and local teams in key regions to meet global customer needs. In 2024, overseas business revenue was 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, accounting for 50% of the company's main business revenue [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 400 million yuan and 480 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 and 11 times [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 86.4% [7] - The company is expected to reach a profit turning point due to the ongoing development of wind farms and the tight supply of large wind power castings [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 9.0 billion and 10.6 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.0% and 16.7% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 46.96 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.87% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 6.24 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.55% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.88 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13.55 [8] - The company's gross margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 17.34%, with a net profit margin of 13.28% [8]

日月股份（603218） 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：Q1 收入 同比大幅增长，静待盈利拐点 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4656 | 4696 | 6037 | 6885 | 7436 | | 同比（%） | (4.30) | 0.87 | 28.56 | 14.05 | 8.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 481.51 | 623.81 | 904.31 | 1,055.28 | 1,159.08 | | 同比（%） | 39.84 | 29.55 | 44.97 | 16.69 | 9.84 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 25.45 | 19.64 | 13.55 | 11.61 | 10.57 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary ...