分析师：姚遥 S1130512080001 联系人：彭治强 • 25Q3板块盈利继续向上，制造端盈利修复趋势明显。据【SW风电设备】口径统计，Q3风电板块实现收入662亿元，同比+27%， 530抢装后行业需求仍然维持较好水平；实现归母净利润14.5亿元，同比+4.6%，板块盈利依然延续了一季度以来的同比增长趋 势，同时考虑到对板块整体盈利影响较大的整机环节三季度仅有少量电站转让，产业链制造端盈利修复趋势明显。行业经营 性净现金流继续改善，Q3板块经营性净现金流34亿元，同比增加7亿元。Q3行业存货规模继续提升，合同负债阶段性下降，预 计Q4装机旺季行业需求有望保持高增。 • 行业量价持续超预期，看好本轮整机盈利弹性释放周期的长度及幅度。前三季度国内风电招标维持高位，结合整机企业在手 订单看，截至Q3末头部企业在手订单同比保持20-30%的增速，测算当前行业在手订单约300GW，充裕的在手订单有望保证后续 行业需求及价格维持较好水平。1-10月国内陆风中标均价为1593元/kW，较24年提升12%，随着25Q4-27FY交付项目中高价订单占比 持续提升，看好整机环节盈利弹性释放周期延续至2027年。 • 分环 ...

国都聚成（011389）成立日期2021年3月25日，最新规模1166.62万。今年以来收益11.43%，同类排名 5681/8150；近一年收益11.95%，同类排名5539/8043；成立以来亏损44.9%。 国都聚成（011389）基金经理为廖晓东、张晓磊、龚勇进。 11月4日，运达股份跌5.05%，截至发稿，报18.05元/股，成交3.42亿元，换手率2.66%，总市值142.03亿 元。 资料显示，运达能源科技集团股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市西湖国际科技大厦A座18F，成立日期 2001年11月30日，上市日期2019年4月26日，公司主营业务涉及大型风力发电机组的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：风电机组87.54%，新能源EPC总承包6.36%，其他4.04%，发电收入2.06%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国都证券旗下1只基金重仓运达股份。国都聚成（011389）三季度持有股数2万股，占基金净 值比例为3.25%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约1.92万元。 龚勇进累计任职时间1年216天，现任基金资产总规模1166.65万元，任职期间最佳基金回报9.93%， 任 职期 ...

证券研究报告 乘风而起，行业业绩与信心共振 风电行业2026年度投资策略 姓名 殷晟路（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522080001 邮箱：yinshenglu@kysec.cn 姓名 陈诺（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070008 邮箱：chennuo@kysec.cn 2025年 11 月 3 日 核心观点 1. "十五五"国内风电装机有望再上台阶 在"双碳"目标及2035年风光装机达36亿千瓦的规划指引下，国内风电需求基本盘稳固，在新能源全面入市的背景下，由于风电 出力与负荷曲线更匹配，风电的上网电价较高，业主的新能源项目开发偏好正在向风电倾斜。2024年国内风电新增装机86.99GW， 2021-2024年累计国内风电新增装机272.1GW，较"十三五"期间的145.5GW大幅提升。2025年10月《风能北京宣言2.0》提出"十 五五"期间国内风电年新增装机容量不低于120GW，其中海风年新增不低于15GW，"十五五"期间国内风电装机规模有望再上台 阶。 2. 陆风反内卷初见成效，海风仍有较大增长潜力 2023-2024年受价格战影响，风机企业盈利能力集体承压，随着行业自律公约的签订及开发 ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 运达股份(300772.SZ) 风机盈利修复，后续增长可期 事件：2025 年 10 月 29 日，公司发布 25 年三季报，风机制造业务的 毛利率有所修复。 2025 年 1-9 月公司实现收入 184.86 亿元，同比+33%，归母净利润 2.52 亿 元，同比-6%；扣非归母净利润 2.22 亿元，同比+32%。2025 年前三季度毛利 率 9.1%。 单 Q3 来看，公司实现收入 75.92 亿元，同/环比+43%/+10%；归母净利润 1.08 亿元，同/环比-9%/+27%；扣非归母净利润 0.94 亿元，同/环比-16%/+14%。 毛利率 9.3%，环比上升 1.2pct，主要在于风机制造板块的盈利能力有所修 复。 订单需求旺盛，在手订单充足。 根据三季报的最新披露，2025 年 Q1/Q2/Q3 分别新增订单 5.6/6.4/6.2GW,前 三季度累计新增订单 18.1GW，基本与去年同期新增订单量（18.7GW）持平， 订单需求依旧相当旺盛。截至 2025 年三季度末，公司累计在手订单已达到 46.9GW。充足的在手订单奠定后续交付规模增长的基础。 风机中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.33% on October 31, with Sany Heavy Energy leading the drop [1][2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the wind power equipment sector included: - Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. (603507) with a closing price of 24.28, up 1.76% - Daqian Heavy Industry (002487) with a closing price of 50.30, up 1.64% - Electric Wind Power (688660) with a closing price of 20.63, up 1.38% [1] - Major decliners included: - Sany Heavy Energy (688349) with a closing price of 28.28, down 5.04% - Goldwind Technology (002202) with a closing price of 15.70, down 4.15% - Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772) with a closing price of 18.27, down 3.69% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The wind power equipment sector saw a net outflow of 1.114 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 914 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Daqian Heavy Industry (002487) with a net inflow of 1.04 billion yuan from institutional investors - Tian Shun Wind Energy (002531) with a net inflow of 12.26 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

盈利预测与估值 考虑到电站转让节奏较慢，我们下调公司25 年电站转让业务营收假设，同时由于公司风机盈利修复进 度较快，我们上调公司25-27 年风机制造业务毛利率假设，预计25-27 年归母净利润为5.56/12.65/16.3 亿 元（较前值-18.78%/+24.47%/+22.33%），对应EPS 为0.71/1.61/2.07 元。考虑到可比公司26 年Wind 一致 预期均值14.64x，我们给予公司26 年14.64xPE 估值，对应目标价23.57 元（前值17.40 元，对应25 年 20xPE）。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，下游需求不及预期，电站转让进度不及预期等。 行业：破卷典型案例，量价景气向上 10 月27 日，《经济半小时》播出《破立之间：高质量发展的产业实践 风电破卷》，对行业价格自律、 评标规则改良、政府行为规范等给予积极评价，鼓励企业从卷价格向拼价值的思想转变，为行业迈向高 质量发展指明方向。 需求层面，《风能北京宣言2.0》目标"十五五"/"十六五"国内风电年均新增装机120/140GW+，夯实产业 发展信心；价格层面，25 年以来陆风加权平均中标价格持续提升，其中9 月为15 ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3985.00万元，特大单买入1094.52万元，占比4.05%，卖出2811.40万 元，占比10.40%；大单买入3616.37万元，占比13.37%，卖出5884.48万元，占比21.76%。 10月31日，运达股份盘中下跌2.00%，截至11:05，报18.59元/股，成交2.70亿元，换手率2.04%，总市值 146.27亿元。 截至9月30日，运达股份股东户数3.34万，较上期减少13.08%；人均流通股20891股，较上期增加 15.09%。2025年1月-9月，运达股份实现营业收入184.86亿元，同比增长32.72%；归母净利润2.51亿元， 同比减少5.76%。 分红方面，运达股份A股上市后累计派现2.81亿元。近三年，累计派现1.53亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，运达股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股902.48万股，相比上期减少179.86万股。华夏复兴混合A（000031）位居第六大流通股 东，持股549.47万股，持股数量较上期不变。博时恒乐债券A（014846）位居第七大流通股东，持股 454.91万股 ...

Core Insights - The wind power equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.51% on October 30, with Yunda Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Wind Power Equipment Sector Performance - Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772) closed at 18.97, up 4.98% with a trading volume of 432,800 shares and a transaction value of 813 million [1] - Feiwo Technology (301232) closed at 43.82, up 4.58% with a trading volume of 77,700 shares and a transaction value of 335 million [1] - Goldwind Technology (002202) closed at 16.38, up 4.53% with a trading volume of 2.3035 million shares and a transaction value of 3.789 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Tianneng Heavy Industry (300569) up 3.23% and Xinsuo Lian (300850) up 2.55% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The wind power equipment sector experienced a net outflow of 105 million from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 254 million [2] - The overall retail investors had a net outflow of 149 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Goldwind Technology had a main fund net inflow of 18.3 million, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 122 million [3] - Feiwo Technology experienced a main fund net inflow of 39.64 million, with retail funds showing a net outflow of 25.05 million [3] - Yunda Co., Ltd. had a main fund net inflow of 32.52 million, while retail funds had a net outflow of 39.30 million [3]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 7.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.28%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 108 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.64% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.12% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 7.592 billion yuan, up 43.22% year-on-year and 10.28% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 108 million yuan, down 9.64% year-on-year but up 27.12% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's comprehensive gross margin in Q3 2025 was 9.27%, with wind turbine gross margin exceeding 8%, an increase from 7.27% in the first half of 2025 [1] Order Backlog and Growth Potential - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a strong order backlog of 46.87 GW, indicating continued growth potential [1] - The company is expected to benefit from increased wind turbine delivery prices in 2026, leading to improved gross margins [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's 2025 profit forecast was revised down by 8.2% to 651 million yuan due to slower-than-expected pace of power station sales [3] - The 2026 profit forecast was raised by 17.8% to 1.146 billion yuan, reflecting optimism about the domestic wind product market [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21.8 times for 2025 and 12.4 times for 2026, with a target price increase of 7.7% to 23.29 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 28.9% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million RMB, a decrease of 5.8% [2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 7.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 43.2% year-on-year growth and a 10.3% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 108 million RMB, down 9.6% year-on-year but up 27.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 9.27%, a decrease of 2.37 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.19 percentage points from Q2, with expectations for further improvement in wind turbine manufacturing margins [3]. - The company’s order backlog reached approximately 46.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, indicating a positive outlook for sales growth in 2026 [3]. - The company’s operating expense ratio has decreased, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 3.92%, 0.73%, and 2.62% respectively, all showing year-on-year declines [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.5 billion RMB, a 32.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 251 million RMB, down 5.8% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 9.27%, with expectations for improvement in wind turbine manufacturing margins due to increased order deliveries and price hikes [3]. - The company’s order backlog has grown to 46.9 GW, suggesting strong sales potential for 2026 [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 550 million RMB, 1.32 billion RMB, and 1.85 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 11, and 8 [5].