Core Viewpoint - The current market shows signs of excessive speculation, particularly in stocks that lack profitability, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [2][24][33] Group 1: Market Valuation and Speculative Stocks - Fed Chairman Jay Powell indicated that equity prices are "fairly highly valued," raising concerns about the sustainability of speculative stocks [3][24] - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 25 times this year's earnings and 22 times next year's earnings, which is on the higher side but not excessively expensive given the expected earnings growth [5][6] - A significant number of speculative stocks have rallied dramatically, with only a small fraction being profitable; a recent screen identified 55 stocks that rose at least 50% in September, with only six being profitable [17][24] Group 2: Specific Stock Examples - Energy Fuels, a uranium company, has seen its stock rise over 215% this year despite ongoing losses, raising questions about its valuation [11][12] - Ollo, another nuclear stock, has surged 518% for the year, driven by positive headlines, but it lacks revenue, indicating speculative behavior [13][14] - AS Space Mobile, a satellite broadband company, is up 158% this year but continues to lose money, highlighting the risks associated with speculative investments [15][16] Group 3: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The company will adopt a more cautious approach towards speculative stocks, emphasizing the need for wise speculation and risk management [9][24] - The recommendation of holding one speculative stock per portfolio remains, but there will be a stronger emphasis on evaluating the risks associated with such investments [24][25] - The focus will shift towards identifying non-speculative stocks with solid fundamentals as potential investment opportunities [34]

LVMH is ramping up its expansion in South Korea, with the luxury conglomerate looking to diversify its global presence as geopolitical and economic uncertainties hurt the consumer spending outlook in the US and China https://t.co/0skJ9TgyNS ...

Best Buy has been making job cuts across the company, including reductions to its Geek Squad team https://t.co/ClcR8ckG9M ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing less volatility and more complacency, which could change as the year progresses [4][5] - Historically, September is one of the worst months for stock performance, but this year has bucked that trend due to better-than-expected economic data and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][5][22] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 25 times current year consensus EPS, indicating a stretched market multiple that necessitates earnings growth to justify valuations [9][10] - There is a focus on 2026 earnings, with the S&P 500 trading at about 22.5 times projected earnings for that year, which is considered not overly expensive [12][13] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates multiple times, which could lead to a more favorable environment for both fixed income investments and the stock market [14][15] - Long-term interest rates have decreased, which may act as a catalyst for the housing market and refinancing opportunities for homeowners [18][19] Sector Analysis - The small-cap Russell 2000 has shown significant recovery, up nearly 9% this year, indicating a broadening market rally beyond just large-cap stocks [23][24][43] - Banks and private equity firms are expected to perform well due to favorable monetary policy and strong investment banking activity [50][52] Consumer Spending Trends - American Express is favored over Visa due to its strong travel business and membership benefits, which are expected to drive growth [62][67] - Amazon is preferred over Walmart for its diversified offerings and potential for monetizing its media assets [59][61] Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for housing stocks if interest rates continue to decline, which could stimulate demand [19][20] - Private equity firms are expected to benefit from lower interest rates and robust investment banking activity, positioning them for strong performance [52][55] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "wall of worry," where investors are hesitant to enter due to fear of missing out, which could support continued upward momentum [34][35] - The breadth of the market rally is improving, with more sectors participating, which is a positive sign for overall market health [43][44]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue of $86.11 billion, an increase from $79.7 billion in the same quarter last year [1] - Analysts predict earnings per share of $5.80, up from $5.15 in the previous year’s fourth quarter [2] - Costco has consistently beaten revenue estimates, achieving this in two consecutive quarters and five out of the last ten quarters [2] Earnings Estimates - Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at $86.11 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 15.3% [1] - Expected earnings per share of $5.80 indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [2] Consumer Behavior and Store Traffic - Costco stores in Northern New Jersey showed significant traffic, outperforming competitors like Amazon Fresh and Walmart [3] - The grocery section was noted as the busiest area, with consumers seeking value amidst anticipated price increases due to tariffs [4] - Overall visits to Costco increased by 3.2% year-over-year in April, May, and June, with a further increase of 5.5% in August [6] Membership and Revenue Streams - Membership fees generated $1.24 billion in the third quarter, up from $1.12 billion the previous year, highlighting the importance of this high-margin revenue [9] - The recent membership fee increase in September 2024 is expected to contribute positively to profitability [9] Operational Improvements - Early openings for executive members have been implemented to improve store operations and customer experience [5] - This strategy has reportedly reduced congestion and improved the flow of visitors, enhancing the overall shopping experience [6] Comparable Sales and Growth - Comparable sales rose by 5.7% year-over-year in the third quarter, with growth observed across the US, Canada, and other international markets [8] - Continued growth in store traffic and new store openings will be critical indicators for future performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the Leverage Shares 2X Long COST Daily ETF (NASDAQ:COTG) aims to provide investors with double daily exposure to Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), capitalizing on the company's strong performance in the consumer spending sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The new ETF was listed on September 18 and is designed to offer 200% of Costco's daily performance, both gains and losses [1][3]. - The fund features an industry-low expense ratio of 0.75% for single-stock leveraged ETFs, targeting active traders interested in short-term fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Market Positioning - By including Costco, the ETF diversifies beyond technology giants, reflecting a strategic move towards consumer-oriented sectors [2][5]. - Costco's business model, characterized by low-cost and high-volume sales, positions it as a reliable indicator of consumer demand, especially in an inflationary environment [3][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The ETF is expected to attract investors looking to leverage Costco's loyal customer base and its potential for growth in the bulk-buying market [2][6]. - Themes ETFs' Chief Revenue Officer highlighted Costco's fantastic growth and customer loyalty as key reasons for the ETF's introduction [4].

Core Insights - Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is expected to decline significantly, with projections indicating the addition of under 500,000 positions in Q4 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and an 8% decrease from the previous year [2][4] Group 1: Hiring Trends - Retailers are facing multiple challenges including tariffs, inflation, and a shift towards automation, which is leading to fewer seasonal hires [3][4] - Major retailers like Target have not disclosed their seasonal hiring plans yet, contrasting with last year when they announced specific hiring numbers [5][6] - Companies such as Spirit Halloween and Bath & Body Works have released their hiring plans, with Spirit planning to hire 50,000 and Bath & Body Works planning to hire 32,000 workers [7][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall job market has shown signs of slowing, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below expectations [9][10] - Consumers are under financial pressure due to persistent inflation and high interest rates, which may dampen demand during the holiday season [11] - Reports indicate that consumers plan to spend 5% less on holiday gifts and related expenses this year, marking the first significant drop since 2020 [12]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets opened positively on September 24, 2025, recovering from losses experienced the previous day, with major indexes near all-time highs [1][2][3] - The S&P 500 was up 0.2% at 6674 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 113 points (0.2%), and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% [2] Economic Indicators - Investors are focused on upcoming economic data, particularly the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show slight inflation acceleration [4] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, acknowledging the Fed's recent rate cut but not signaling immediate further cuts [5] - Revised U.S. GDP numbers, consumer confidence data, and reports on home sales and durable goods orders are also anticipated [6] Company Developments - Alibaba (BABA) shares surged nearly 9% in premarket trading after announcing increased AI spending plans beyond $50 billion [7] - Micron Technology (MU) gained over 1% following better-than-expected earnings and strong guidance [8] - Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 2.8% due to concerns over its $100 billion deal with OpenAI but showed signs of recovery, up nearly 1% in premarket [9][10] - Boeing (BA) stock rose by 2% after Uzbekistan Airways announced a purchase agreement for 14 Dreamliner airplanes [11] - Lithium Americas (LAC) shares soared on news of potential U.S. government investment in its lithium project [11] Earnings Reports - Cintas Corporation (CTAS) is expected to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings with a consensus EPS forecast of $1.19 [12] - AutoZone Inc. (AZO) reported adjusted earnings that missed estimates, leading to a slight stock dip [12] - Firefly Aerospace (FLY) saw a significant stock drop of 15.3% after reporting a wider-than-expected loss [12] - Kenvue (KVUE) climbed 1.6% after recovering from previous losses related to comments about its Tylenol product [12] Market Sentiment - The market remains dynamic, with investors weighing economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy signals, and individual company performance, indicating a cautious optimism focused on growth sectors [13]

Group 1 - Retailers are cautious about hiring goals for the holiday season, with many remaining silent on their plans [3][4] - Factors affecting seasonal hiring include looming tariffs, inflationary pressures, and a shift towards automation and permanent staff [4] - Target is focusing on utilizing existing employees by offering more hours rather than hiring new seasonal staff [5] Group 2 - Retail hiring during the holiday season is projected to fall below 500,000 positions, marking the lowest point since 2009 [7] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports a 4% year-over-year decrease in seasonal hiring in 2024, with 543,100 jobs added in Q4 [7] - The retail industry has consistently hired above 500,000 seasonal employees since 2009, following the economic recovery [5]

Core Insights - Citi Trends, Inc. is a leading off-price value retailer focused on apparel, accessories, and home trends primarily for African American families in the United States [1] - The company will present at the inaugural Global Consumer & Retail Conference hosted by Telsey Advisory Group in collaboration with Santander Corporate & Investment Banking [1] - The presentation is scheduled for October 8, 2025, at 8:45 a.m. ET [1]