Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is expected to report a 4.1% increase in revenues for Q3 2025, with estimates at $3.02 billion compared to the previous year [1][11] - The company is projected to experience a decline in earnings per share, with a consensus estimate of an adjusted loss of seven cents, reflecting a 112.3% increase from last year's quarterly level [2][11] Revenue and Sales Performance - The Aluminum segment is anticipated to benefit from increased demand for products such as slab, billet, and rod in Europe and North America, with third-party sales estimated at $2.11 billion, indicating a 17% increase from the prior year [3][4] - The Alumina segment, however, is expected to show weakness, with third-party sales projected at $813 million, representing an 18.9% decrease from the previous year [7][11] Strategic Developments - Alcoa's partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with IGNIS EQT and the acquisition of Alumina Limited, are expected to enhance revenue streams [5] - Efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to support performance in the upcoming quarter [6] Market Conditions - The company faces challenges in the Alumina segment due to a weak bauxite market influenced by safety and environmental inspections [7] - Global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds, particularly a stronger U.S. dollar, may negatively impact Alcoa's overseas operations [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record steel shipments of 3,600,000 tons in Q3 2025, with revenues of $4,800,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $664,000,000, reflecting strong operational execution despite market headwinds [7][11] - Earnings per diluted share were reported at $2.74, with operating income from steel operations increasing by 30% sequentially to $498,000,000 [11][12] - Cash flow from operations was robust at $723,000,000, with liquidity exceeding $2,200,000,000 at the end of September [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel operations saw a significant increase in operating income driven by record shipments and metal spread expansion, with average scrap costs declining by $27 per ton [12][13] - The metals recycling operations reported operating income of $32,000,000, significantly higher than the previous quarter, supported by strong domestic steel demand [13][21] - Steel fabrication operations achieved operating income of $107,000,000, a 15% increase from the second quarter, with a backlog extending through 2026 [13][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic steel industry operated at a production utilization rate of 78%, while the company's mills operated at a higher rate of 88%, reflecting strong demand and operational efficiency [23] - Coated flat rolled steel volume and pricing compressed due to an inventory overhang from imports, but prices are expected to improve as the market stabilizes [24][26] - The company anticipates that steel prices have bottomed out and will see upward movement in 2026, supported by recent trade rulings and tariffs [24][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transformational growth initiatives, including decarbonization efforts and expanding its aluminum operations, which are expected to achieve monthly EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2025 [15][18] - The strategic capital allocation prioritizes high-return growth opportunities while maintaining a strong dividend profile and share repurchase program [16][32] - The company aims to leverage its competitive advantages in metals recycling and aluminum to enhance earnings potential and market share [22][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding steel demand and pricing dynamics, citing ongoing onshoring activity and infrastructure spending as key drivers [29][44] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from favorable trade policies and a growing domestic manufacturing base, which is expected to support steel consumption [42][43] - Management highlighted the importance of safety and operational excellence as foundational to the company's success and future growth [10][45] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased $661,000,000 of its common stock in 2025, representing 3.4% of outstanding shares, while maintaining investment-grade ratings [15][16] - The aluminum operations are expected to contribute significantly to the company's earnings, with a projected through-cycle EBITDA contribution of over $1,400,000,000 from recent investments [44][107] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the aluminum rolling mill and its impact on commercial activities? - Management noted that accelerated qualifications for can sheet products have opened doors for negotiating longer-term contracts, with expectations for a favorable product mix in 2026 [52][54] Question: What is the expected exit run rate for the aluminum operations? - Management confirmed expectations for EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2025, with ongoing certification processes impacting costs but not altering the overall positive outlook [58][59] Question: What are the capital allocation priorities for next year? - The company plans to maintain a balanced cash allocation strategy, with potential increases in dividends and continued share repurchases, while exploring organic growth opportunities [64][66] Question: How is the company positioned in the rail market? - Management indicated a commitment to the rail market, anticipating growth and improved product quality, while maintaining a stable mix in structural shipments [84][85] Question: What is the outlook for the flat rolled steel business? - Management expressed optimism for the Sinton facility, expecting improved performance as inventory overhang diminishes and market conditions stabilize [90][96]

Group 1 - Alcoa is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $3.1 billion, driven by stronger aluminum prices and increased shipment volumes [2] - Margins may face slight pressure due to high energy costs and input inflation, although cost-control measures could mitigate some of this impact [2] - The recovery in demand from aerospace, automotive, and packaging sectors supports volume expansion, but significant earnings growth will depend on sustained price strength and operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - Alcoa has a current market capitalization of $9.4 billion, with annual revenue of $13 billion, operating profits of $1.6 billion, and a net income of $1.0 billion [3] - Historical earnings data shows that positive one-day returns occurred approximately 37% of the time over the last five years, dropping to 25% over the last three years [5] - The median of positive one-day returns is 2.9%, while the median of negative returns is -5.4% [5]

Group 1 - The article upgrades the rating on Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) from Hold to Buy, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1] - The analyst, Alberto, has a Master's degree in Business Economics and possesses a strong managerial and economic background, which supports the credibility of the analysis [1] - The investment strategy discussed is versatile, catering to various investor profiles, including those focused on dividends, value propositions, or growth opportunities [1]

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：过剩延续 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 2. 韩国：与美国关税谈判取得"实质性进展"。韩国最高政策负责人表示，韩国在与美国的关税谈判中， 许多问题上达成了广泛共识。双方在 3500 亿美元投资基金的结构上仍存在分歧，该基金是美国对韩国商品 关税上限为 15% 的协议的核心内容。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 20910 | O | 25 | 200 | 330 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 20920 | ー | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2767 | -14 | 10 | 153 | 172 | | 沪铝主力合约 ...

Vedanta’s Hidden Agenda: BALCO Employees Deprived of 5% Equity Allotment in Remaining 49% DisinvestmentShashankdubeysd3 min read·Just nowJust now--Press enter or click to view image in full sizePress enter or click to view image in full sizePress enter or click to view image in full sizePress enter or click to view image in full sizeWhen the Government of India disinvested 51% of Bharat Aluminium Company Limited (BALCO) in 2nd March 2001 to Sterlite Industries (now Vedanta Limited), it retained the remainin ...

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Week of 9th to 15th Oct 2025) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly in aluminum production, inventory, and consumption [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 853kt, unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 361kt, +1% WoW, +7% YoY, and +7% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum production: 35.4 million tonnes (mnt), +2.9% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 14.4 mnt, +5.9% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 976kt as of 16th Oct, -3% WoW, +1% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Social Inventory**: 776kt, -2% WoW, -1% YoY, +4% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Producers' Inventory**: 200kt, -10% WoW, +10% YoY, +12% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 684kt, -3% WoW, -1% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 292kt, -3% WoW, +8% YoY, +14% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 917kt, +22% WoW, +6% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 923kt, +10% WoW, +3% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 355kt, +30% WoW, +15% YoY, +7% YoY on the lunar calendar - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 36.3 mnt, +4.1% YoY - Ingot: +3.5% YoY - Billet: +7.7% YoY [4] Takeaways - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusion of various inventory types [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, but higher than 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels increased WoW and are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The current sector pecking order in terms of demand recovery is copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]

Core Insights - Alcoa (AA) is expected to report a quarterly loss of -$0.07 per share, a decline of 112.3% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $3.02 billion, reflecting a 4.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 26.4% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [1][2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Total sales for Aluminum are projected at $2.11 billion, a 16.8% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - Third-party sales for Bauxite are expected to reach $138.59 million, indicating a 49% increase year-over-year [4] - Third-party sales for Alumina are estimated at $813.43 million, reflecting an 18.9% decline compared to the previous year [4] Price and Shipment Estimates - Intersegment sales for Aluminum are expected to be $4.50 million, a 10% decrease year-over-year [5] - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina is projected at $376.78, down from $485.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum is estimated at $3340.11, compared to $2877.00 in the same quarter of the previous year [6] - Third-party alumina shipments are expected to reach 2,195 thousand metric tons, up from 2,052 thousand metric tons year-over-year [6] Production Estimates - Third-party aluminum shipments are projected at 627 thousand metric tons, slightly down from 638 thousand metric tons in the previous year [7] - Intersegment alumina shipments are expected to be 1,104 thousand metric tons, compared to 1,027 thousand metric tons last year [7] - Alumina production is projected at 2,414 thousand metric tons, down from 2,435 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [8] - Aluminum production is expected to reach 583 thousand metric tons, up from 559 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [8] - Bauxite production is projected at 10 million metric tons, compared to 9 million metric tons in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have returned +13.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which changed by +0.7% [10] - Alcoa holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [10]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corp. has seen a significant increase in its quality ranking, moving into the top 10th percentile among peers, indicating strong operational efficiency and financial health [1][2] - The company's quality score rose from 88.85 to 91.20, reflecting a 2.35-point improvement amid challenging market conditions [2] - Alcoa's position is strengthened by its role as a supplier of lightweight alloys to major companies like Ford and RTX Corp., which rely on high-strength aluminum components [3] Group 2 - Recent disruptions in the industry, such as a fire at Novelis' plant that affected 40% of U.S. automaker aluminum sheets, have increased Alcoa's reliability as a supplier [4] - Ford is actively seeking to mitigate aluminum shortages for its popular F-150 and SUVs, which positions Alcoa to gain a larger market share [4] - Alcoa's quality score is complemented by a strong value score at the 89.13th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation compared to its assets, earnings, and sales [5] Group 3 - The company's growth score stands at 72.03, suggesting steady earnings and revenue expansion, while its momentum score is at 58.63, indicating building price strength [6] - Alcoa shares experienced a 1.84% increase on Thursday but saw a decline of 1.21% in after-hours trading, with a year-to-date drop of 2.26% and a 7.98% decline over the year [7]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corp. has shown significant improvement in its quality ranking, moving into the top 10th percentile among peers, indicating strong operational efficiency and financial health [1][2] Group 1: Quality Score Improvement - Alcoa's quality score increased from 88.85 to 91.20, reflecting a 2.35-point improvement, which highlights enhanced operational efficiency amid market challenges [2] - The achievement of joining the top 10% of peers is timely for Alcoa, as it supplies critical lightweight alloys to major companies like Ford and RTX Corp. [3] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - Recent disruptions in the industry, such as a fire at Novelis' plant that affected 40% of U.S. automaker aluminum sheets, have positioned Alcoa as a reliable supplier, allowing it to capture greater market share [4] - Ford is increasingly relying on Alcoa to mitigate shortages for its popular F-150 and SUVs, further solidifying Alcoa's market position [4] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - Alcoa's quality score reflects superior profitability metrics and fundamental strength compared to competitors, with a value score at the 89.13th percentile indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The growth score of 72.03 suggests steady earnings and revenue expansion, while a momentum score of 58.63 indicates building price strength [6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Alcoa shares ended 1.84% higher on Thursday but saw a decline of 1.21% in after-hours trading, with a year-to-date decrease of 2.26% and a 7.98% decline over the year [7]