氧化铝行业分析及展望 20251210 摘要 2026 年中国氧化铝市场预计过剩 400-500 万吨，总平衡产能约为 9,100-9,200 万吨，但实际运行产能高达 9,600 万吨，下游电解铝厂库 存高企加剧供需压力，若不减产，每月过剩量约 35 万吨。 预计 2026 年 1 月起氧化铝减产将逐步兑现，部分企业可能战略性减少 40-200 万吨产能，降低开工率以缓解库存压力，长单比例下降也为减 产提供空间，1-2 月或逐步释放减产生量。 2026 年全球铝土矿供应总体充裕，中国依赖几内亚矿源，印尼、印度、 越南等地使用本地矿石，互不冲突。几内亚明年增量预计达 8,000- 10,000 吨，总体过剩至少 5,000-6,000 吨，确保市场供应充足。 铝市场核心矛盾在于新疆到期仓单转现货销售，对现货市场造成压力， 导致氧化铝价格下跌。聚生仓库成交活跃，而成通和中江仓库仓单难以 成交，盘面定价未直接反映成本估值。 短期内关注 12 月底银联盟长单价格谈判，若定价低于 70 美元/吨将压 低矿石价格至 65 美元左右，影响盘面估值区间至 2,400-2,600 元。关 注 1 月份长单转现货带来的流动性释 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the alumina market are dominated by bearish factors, and the weak trend is expected to continue. Domestic imported ore supply is expected to increase, which may put pressure on ore prices and lead to a potential decline in the cost support for alumina. The supply side has a high level of operating capacity with only minor disruptions due to environmental protection, while the demand side is relatively rigid, and inventory continues to accumulate, indicating an expected surplus in the market. Attention should be paid to news of production cuts on the supply side [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Transaction Data - The alumina futures (active) price decreased from 2793 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, to 2783 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a drop of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price fell from 2906 yuan/ton to 2873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 118 yuan/ton to 138 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price rose from 318 US dollars/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 274.73 yuan/ton to 225.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.9 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 16,487 tons to 253,654 tons, while the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and imported Guinea bauxite CIF remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 0.36% last week, closing at 2783 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2873 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. Bauxite prices remained stable due to a stalemate between supply shortages and downstream price - pressing. The start of operations of Guinea's NIMBAMININGCOMPANYS.A. may increase the supply of imported bauxite in the Chinese market. The alumina supply decreased slightly as a Hebei alumina enterprise's two roasting furnaces were under maintenance due to environmental protection. As of November 6, the total alumina production capacity in China was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89%. The demand for alumina was stable as electrolytic aluminum enterprises operated steadily, but some downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase and mainly executed long - term contracts. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 254,000 tons last Friday, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - On the ore side, the start of shipments by Guinea's NIMBAMININGCOMPANYS.A. and the end of the rainy season in Guinea are expected to increase the surplus of bauxite in China. On the supply side, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 96.3 million tons last week due to the maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a Hebei alumina enterprise. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable, and enterprises mainly executed long - term contracts with low willingness to purchase spot goods. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 254,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the expected increase in domestic imported ore supply may put pressure on ore prices and lead to a decline in the cost support for alumina. The supply side has a high operating capacity with only minor environmental - related maintenance, and the consumption side is rigid, with inventory continuing to accumulate and an expected market surplus. The alumina market is expected to remain weak [2][6] Industry News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for alumina futures contracts starting from the settlement on November 7, 2025. The daily price limit was adjusted to 7%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 8%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 9%. The "Xingxian Yangjiagou Bauxite Joint Trial Operation Plan" was approved and filed, with a production capacity of 450,000 tons/year for the second system and a six - month joint trial operation period. Guinea's ELITE MINING company resumed bauxite shipments in mid - October 2025 after the rainy - season maintenance [7] Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - month spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][25]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The current market is repeating the logic from March to May: oversupply drives down spot prices, leading to enterprise production cuts, spot shortages, and price increases that will drive a complete reversal in the market. However, the production cut-off line is uncertain. Currently, the cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and factories are still profitable, so there are no production cuts. Alumina production capacity will continue to drive output growth, and the oversupply will continue to expand [4]. Group 2: Domestic Alumina Balance Sheet - **Total Supply**: Ranges from 676.94 to 765.21 million tons from January to August 2025, with fluctuations [4]. - **Total Production**: Varies from 693.50 to 773.82 million tons during the same period, showing an overall upward trend [4]. - **Imports**: Fluctuate between 1.07 and 12.59 million tons, with an expected increase in the next two months but still maintaining a net export status [4][12]. - **Exports**: Range from 17.10 to 29.67 million tons, with relatively stable export volumes [4]. - **Total Consumption**: Ranges from 642.87 to 722.77 million tons, showing a steady growth trend [4]. - **Excess Quantity**: Fluctuates from -11.02 to 51.52 million tons, indicating periods of oversupply and shortage [4]. - **Year-on-Year Production Growth**: Ranges from -0.10% to 12.85%, with significant growth in some months [4]. - **Year-on-Year Consumption Growth**: Ranges from 0.19% to 3.80%, showing relatively stable consumption growth [4]. Group 3: Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Continue to decline. As of Monday this week, the average prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou are 2907, 2920, 2858, and 3133 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of decline [12]. - **Overseas Spot Prices**: Slightly increased during the National Day holiday and then declined in sync with the domestic market. As of Monday this week, the FOB price in Western Australia is 323 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina is 76.35 yuan/ton, remaining profitable since early September [12]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Futures Price Trends**: The price of the main alumina futures contract first rose and then fell this week. It opened at 2898 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 2820 yuan/ton this Monday, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.79% [15]. - **Futures Market Structure**: The current C structure of the futures market is stable [15]. Group 5: Cost - **Imported Bauxite Prices**: The average CIF price of imported Guinea bauxite is 73 US dollars/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton. The average CIF price of imported Australian bauxite is 70 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [20]. - **Regional Costs**: The fully taxed costs in various regions are estimated to be around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, lower than in the first half of the year [20]. Group 6: Supply Side - **Weekly Production**: As of last Friday, the weekly production of alumina is 186.3 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.3 million tons or 0.16% [30]. - **Operating Capacity**: As of last Friday, the operating capacity of alumina reaches 9855 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week and hitting a record high [30]. - **New Investment Projects**: There are no new alumina investment projects this year [30]. Group 7: Inventory - **Total Inventory**: As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (including factory, in-transit, raw material, and port inventories) is 457.6 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9 million tons [36]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory inventories of alumina and raw material inventories of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by about 1 million tons during the National Day holiday due to inventory adjustments [36].

Summary of the Aluminum Oxide Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum oxide industry has transitioned from oversupply to a tighter supply situation due to production cuts by companies such as Shanxi Aokeda, Senze Aluminum, and Xinfeng from late March to early May, leading to a decrease in operating levels from 93.6 million tons to 86.5 million tons [1][5][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Cost Increases**: The production costs of aluminum oxide have been rising, primarily due to fluctuations in ore structure costs. Domestic ore supply tightness has led to increased reliance on imported ore, with prices rising from 1,460 RMB to nearly 2,000 RMB [1][6]. - **Guinea Bauxite Price Impact**: The price of bauxite from Guinea has decreased to 70 USD/ton, which has lowered domestic production costs for aluminum oxide to around 2,700 RMB in Shandong and 2,900 RMB in Shanxi. However, the long transportation cycle of 40 days complicates the timing of using high and low-priced ores [1][7][8]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Aluminum oxide prices have fluctuated significantly, dropping from a high of 5,850 RMB/ton to a low of 2,850 RMB/ton. This volatility is attributed to high operating rates, previous high-profit margins, and expectations of new production capacity releases [3][12]. - **Production Cuts**: When aluminum oxide prices fell to 2,850 RMB/ton, companies faced losses of 500 RMB/ton, prompting widespread production cuts across the industry [1][10]. - **Future Supply and Demand**: The outlook for the aluminum oxide market in 2025 is not optimistic due to significant new production capacity coming online, such as the projects from Nong'an and Guotou Beihai. If the industry stabilizes around 70 USD, spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 and 3,000 RMB [3][26][27]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Guinea's Government Actions**: The Guinea government has nationalized unexploited mines, affecting companies like Shunda and potentially tightening global ore supply. While domestic reserves are currently sufficient, prolonged issues could impact prices significantly [3][21][22]. - **Production Recovery and Market Dynamics**: There are rumors of production recovery, but these lack logical support. The overall market price has only seen a slight increase, indicating that if production resumes, prices may revert to previous levels [11][17]. - **Non-Metallurgical Demand**: There has been a significant increase in non-metallurgical demand for aluminum oxide, which has contributed to strong purchasing activity in recent months [16]. - **Transportation Challenges**: The transportation route from Guinea to China is lengthy and complex, taking over 40 days, which affects the timing and pricing of ore availability [8]. - **Cost Structure**: The overall industry cost structure is under pressure, with cash costs and full costs differing by approximately 150 to 200 RMB due to depreciation and financial costs [34][35]. Conclusion The aluminum oxide industry is currently facing a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating prices, rising production costs, and significant changes in supply dynamics due to both domestic and international factors. The anticipated new production capacities and government actions in Guinea will play crucial roles in shaping the market's future.