Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the new stock market, indicating a potential for structural volatility and recommending selective investment in event-driven or growth-catalyzed sectors [1][12]. Core Insights - The new stock market showed signs of slight recovery last week, with an average increase of 1.2% for new stocks listed since 2025, compared to a previous decline of -3.3%, and approximately 46.0% of new stocks achieved positive returns [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing complexity of the overseas situation, which continues to suppress overall market risk appetite, thereby limiting the active spread of new stocks [1][2]. - Key upcoming events, such as the NVIDIA GTC conference and expectations surrounding the ChiNext reform, are anticipated to boost local trading activity and investor sentiment in specific sectors [2][12]. Summary by Sections New Stock Performance - Last week, two new stocks were available for online subscription, both from the North Exchange, with an average issuance P/E ratio of 15.0X and an average subscription success rate of 0.0292% [4][23]. - The average first-day increase for newly listed stocks on the North Exchange was approximately 92%, with a secondary market increase of 34.6% following the first day [4][25][26]. - Since 2025, the average increase for new stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges was 1.2%, with about 46.0% of new stocks showing gains, while North Exchange stocks averaged a 1.6% increase with 51.4% showing gains [6][28]. Upcoming New Stocks - This week, two new stocks are set to be listed, both from the North Exchange, with an expected issuance P/E ratio of 12.1X [7][34]. - Six new stocks will open for subscription this week, including two from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and two from the ChiNext [7][34]. - Three new stocks will begin the inquiry process, with notable companies such as Taijin New Energy and Huigu Materials being highlighted for their market potential [7][35]. Suggested Stocks to Watch - The report recommends monitoring emerging stocks in sectors with growth potential, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and energy exports, while also considering stocks in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption that may see cyclical interest [2][12][41]. - Specific stocks suggested for short-term attention include Fengbei Biological, Heyuan Biological-U, and Hengkun New Materials, among others [8][41].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The electronic sub-sectors have shown differentiation, with the semiconductor sector increasing by 7.07% year-to-date, while consumer electronics have decreased by 5.22% [3][10] - The upcoming GTC 2026 conference is expected to be a pivotal moment for the "big inference" era, with inference model traffic surpassing 50% since 2025 [24][26] - The report highlights three key technological advancements: LPU (Language Processing Unit), CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), and storage solutions driven by AI computing needs [24][32] Summary by Sections LPU - LPU is a specialized computing architecture optimized for large model inference, emphasizing low latency and high throughput compared to traditional GPUs. NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq is seen as a strategic move to enhance inference capabilities [26][24] - The anticipated introduction of the new Feynman architecture at GTC may incorporate LPU to further optimize AI inference performance, potentially leading to upgrades in server motherboards and PCB designs [26][31] CPO - CPO technology integrates optical modules with switching chips to reduce power consumption and signal loss in high-speed interconnects. The transition to CPO is expected to occur in phases, initially in data center scale-out networks, and later in scale-up applications as technology matures [29][24] - NVIDIA's ongoing investments in optical interconnects suggest a forthcoming launch of scale-up CPO solutions at GTC [29][30] Storage - The demand for high-bandwidth storage is increasing due to AI computing needs, with the next-generation HBM4 expected to enhance bandwidth, capacity, and energy efficiency. The HBM market remains concentrated among a few leading manufacturers, and current production capacity is tight, leading to longer order lead times and rising prices [32][33] - NVIDIA is also optimizing storage architectures for AI inference, which is expected to maintain high levels of industry prosperity [32]

Group 1 - The new stock market is experiencing a slight recovery, with an average increase of 1.2% for new stocks listed since 2025, and approximately 46.0% of these stocks achieving positive returns [1][12][28] - The upcoming Nvidia GTC conference and expectations for reforms in the ChiNext board are anticipated to boost local trading activity, despite overall market risk appetite being constrained by complex overseas situations [2][12] - The focus remains on sectors with long-term growth potential, such as AI computing, commercial aerospace, and energy exports, while also considering sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption for potential rotation based on expected catalysts [3][12] Group 2 - Last week, there were two new stocks available for online subscription, both from the North Exchange, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of 15.0X and a subscription success rate of 0.0292% [4][23] - The average first-day increase for newly listed stocks on the North Exchange was approximately 92%, indicating a slight decrease in trading enthusiasm compared to the previous week [4][25] - The upcoming week will see two new stocks from the North Exchange ready for listing, with an expected issuance price-earnings ratio of 12.1X, and six new stocks set to open for subscription [7][34][35] Group 3 - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks such as Fengbei Biological, Heyuan Biological-U, Hengkun New Materials, Hanhai Group, and Qiangyi Co., which are expected to show structural highlights despite the overall market's risk aversion [8][41] - For mid-term investments, stocks like Jundingda, Maijia Xincai, Duopule, Hehe Information, Sikan Technology, and Guoke Tianceng are recommended for potential investment opportunities [8][41]

重点关注 "全球央行超级周"来袭，美联储将公布利率决议 本周，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行等将密集公布利率决议，市场紧盯 美联储降息点阵图。 北京时间3月19日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议。市场普遍预期联邦基金目标利率将 维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，连续第二次会议按兵不动。但投资者关注的问题是：鉴 于中东冲突及由此引发的能源价格飙升（可能推高通胀），美联储将对未来几个月 的降息前景释放何种信号。自冲突爆发以来，投资者已大幅下调降息预期，目前市 场完全定价今年全年仅降息一次。 宏观•要闻 "十五五"规划纲要发布 《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》全文13日发布。十四届全国人大 四次会议3月12日表决通过了关于国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要的决议，决定批准 这个规划纲要。纲要共分为18篇："奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面""建设现代化产业体系 巩 固壮大实体经济根基""加快高水平科技自立自强 引领发展新质生产力""深入推进数字中国建设 提 升数智化发展水平""建设强大国内市场 加快构建新发展格局""加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济 体制 增强高质量发展动力""扩大高水平对外 ...

- The report tracks the market performance of various indices and sectors for the week of March 9, 2026, to March 13, 2026, highlighting the divergence in performance among different indices and sectors[1][12][13] - The report includes a quantitative sentiment tracking section, which discusses volume-based timing signals for various indices, indicating a bullish view for indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, while maintaining a cautious view for others like CSI 1000 and the ChiNext Index[24][25] - The report introduces the "Number of Rising Stocks in CSI 300" sentiment indicator, which calculates the proportion of CSI 300 constituent stocks with positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[26] - The report also discusses the "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator," which uses the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 closing price to determine market trends and sentiment[33][34] - The report evaluates market profitability through cross-sectional and time-series volatility, noting that the short-term Alpha environment has deteriorated for indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000[38][39][42] - The report tracks institutional research activities, highlighting the most researched stocks and sectors, and provides data on the number of research activities conducted by different types of institutions[43][45][53][55] - The report includes a section on stock index futures tracking, providing weekly statistics for various futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, and discussing the changes in basis and annualized returns[58][59][60][61] - The report tracks southbound capital flows, noting a net inflow of HKD 524.40 billion for the week, with specific inflows from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects[72][74] - The report provides data on changes in financing scale, noting an increase in financing balance by CNY 182.78 billion as of March 12, 2026[74][75] - The report tracks the ETF market, providing data on weekly returns and net inflows/outflows for different types of ETFs, including stock, cross-border, Hong Kong, and commodity ETFs[76][77][78] - The report discusses the tracking of fund clustering degree, using the degree of separation indicator to monitor the clustering degree of funds, noting a slight decline in the clustering degree as of March 13, 2026[84][86][87]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic industry, particularly focusing on investment opportunities in domestic semiconductor materials and AI computing infrastructure [4]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for innovation in the electronic information and machinery sectors, highlighting the importance of developing high-end and scarce products, and accelerating breakthroughs in key components and materials [4]. - There is a significant focus on the domestic production of semiconductor materials, with recommendations to invest in areas such as photolithography materials, electronic gases, high-purity wet electronic chemicals, and large-size silicon wafers due to their low domestic production rates [4]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in advanced processes, storage chips, and third-generation semiconductor fields, emphasizing the need to enhance manufacturing capabilities and develop high-performance processors and high-density storage [4]. - The importance of domestic AI computing chips is highlighted, with a call for the development of high-performance AI chips and foundational software stacks, as well as innovations in model architecture and algorithm optimization [4]. - The report underscores that the demand for computing power is supported by policies aimed at enhancing digital infrastructure and promoting the digital economy, including the establishment of national computing power facilities [4]. Summary by Sections - **Semiconductor Materials**: Focus on domestic production and investment opportunities in low domestic supply areas such as photolithography materials and electronic gases [4]. - **Advanced Processes and Storage Chips**: Emphasis on improving manufacturing capabilities and developing high-performance components in the semiconductor industry [4]. - **AI Computing Chips**: Highlighting the critical role of domestic AI chips in supporting infrastructure and innovation in AI technologies [4]. - **Policy Support for Computing Demand**: Policies are in place to enhance digital infrastructure and support the growth of the digital economy, ensuring a stable demand for computing power [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, convertible bonds have shown a "negative convexity" characteristic, with returns and drawdowns significantly worse than the underlying stocks. The compression of convertible bond valuations started in the first week after the Spring Festival. Although the equity market performed well during this period, there was an obvious structural shift, and the technology sector was weak. Additionally, non - callable convertible bonds generally entered the second round of call - counting periods. Despite the decent performance of the underlying stocks, high - parity convertible bonds, new bonds, and sub - new bonds actively compressed their valuations due to poor expectations. Subsequently, the conflict between the US and Iran impacted global risk appetite, causing a surge in oil prices and a weak and volatile domestic equity market. The compression of convertible bond valuations spread comprehensively, and the valuations in the debt - biased and balanced intervals also declined significantly. From a rolling perspective, the 100 - yuan premium rate has returned to around the +1 standard deviation level, and the central value has significantly shifted down from the previous high. In the short term, convertible bond valuations have compressed to a stage - low. With the expectation of a mid - term slow - bull equity market, the convertible bond market has shown a certain cost - effectiveness, and opportunities for individual bonds with certain cost - effectiveness in valuation can be actively explored [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - Convertible bonds have a "negative convexity" feature, performing worse than underlying stocks. The valuation compression started after the Spring Festival, affected by market structure shift, call - counting periods, and the US - Iran conflict. Currently, the 100 - yuan premium rate is around +1 standard deviation, and the convertible bond market has cost - effectiveness [1][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - Due to the surge in oil prices caused by the US - Iran conflict and the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the domestic equity market stabilized compared to last week, with small and micro - cap stocks relatively weak. Convertible bonds continued to digest valuations this week. After removing outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate decreased by 0.5% to 31.8%, roughly equal to the +1 standard deviation level. This week, the valuation compression spread from high - parity and long - duration bonds to other intervals, showing a universal full - interval compression. The compression in the debt - biased and balanced convertible bonds was generally over 1%. From a term perspective, the valuation compression of new bonds over 5.5 years was close to 4%, and the compression in the 2 - 4 - year interval was also relatively large. In terms of individual bonds, high - parity bonds above 140 yuan with large valuation compression were mostly those in the call progress or about to enter the call - counting period, with obvious pre - emptive characteristics, and the valuation compression due to call expectations was about 10%. Other bonds with large valuation compression in the balanced and debt - biased intervals were mostly new bonds that had not entered the conversion period. Bonds around 3 years, such as Yake and Daimei, also had relatively large valuation compression due to the downward trend of the underlying stocks. In addition, the valuations in the extremely low - parity area below 60 yuan were generally compressed [4][6][9]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 9 convertible bonds, including Fenggong and Liyang, announced redemptions, and 4 announced non - redemptions, with a call rate of 69%. Currently, there are 31 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. Among the non - delisted bonds, the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity bonds is 12.2 billion yuan. There are currently 47 convertible bonds in the redemption progress. 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 11 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 13 convertible bonds are expected to enter the call - counting period within the next month [23][27]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Weining Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and no convertible bond announced the result of the downward revision. As of now, 79 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 18 cannot be revised downward due to net asset constraints, 0 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but have not issued an announcement, 21 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 6 have issued the board of directors' pre - plan for downward revision but have not gone to the shareholders' meeting [31]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put option, among which 1 is also accumulating days for downward revision, and 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval [33]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.3 billion yuan; there are 9 convertible bonds in the process of passing the listing committee, with a to - be - issued scale of 8.2 billion yuan [35].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market shows resilience amidst fluctuating expectations regarding the US-Iran conflict, with previous stable policies preventing excessive surges and maintaining market expectations for mid-term trends [1][4] - The A-share market is adapting to a competitive mindset, reflecting changes in relative national power and China's ability to navigate complex international environments, indicating a significant optimization of market characteristics and a solid foundation for a bull market [1][4] - The current market is transitioning from a structural bull phase to a range-bound phase, with overall static valuations at historical highs, making it more challenging to uncover new structural opportunities [1][5] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market is in a transitional phase from the "first stage upward" to a "range-bound" phase, with the US-Iran conflict serving as a confirmation of this phase transition [1][5] - Static valuations in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, defense, computing, and basic chemicals are at historical highs, indicating increased difficulty in identifying new structural opportunities [1][5] - The report anticipates that the range-bound market may persist for 1-2 quarters, with the potential for a bull market 2.0 to start around mid-2026, depending on industry trends [1][5] Group 3 - The market's accumulation phase is characterized by a lack of high-low cuts or style switches, focusing instead on the dissipation of leading sectors and core stocks entering high-level oscillation zones [1][6] - The report emphasizes that investment opportunities are primarily derived from the extension of mainline assets and the expansion of macro narratives, with a focus on sectors like basic chemicals and AI-related investments [1][6][7] - Historical experiences from 2014 and 2018-19 suggest that the accumulation phase precedes the initiation of bull market 2.0, with weak positive correlations between industry performance during this phase and previous bull market stages [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - The industry is focusing on CXL technology, with Nvidia expected to drive advancements. Key investment targets include companies such as Lanqi Technology, Jucheng Co., Jiangbolong, and Baiwei Storage [3][9]. - The CXL memory pooling solution is anticipated to optimize storage system efficiency and reshape future AI storage architectures. This solution allows for unified addressing and scheduling of memory resources across CPUs, GPUs, and other accelerators, supporting larger-scale and higher-concurrency AI model training and inference tasks [8]. - The CXL memory pooling scheme is gradually being perfected, with leading manufacturers accelerating their applications. The CXL 4.0 specification, set to be released in November 2025, will double the data rate to 128 GT/s compared to CXL 3.0 [8]. - Continuous innovation in CXL memory pooling solutions is expected to further adapt to AI inference demands, enhancing model inference efficiency and addressing existing storage architecture issues [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report emphasizes the importance of CXL technology in the industry, highlighting Nvidia's role in its advancement. Recommended investment targets include Lanqi Technology (688008, Buy), Jucheng Co. (688123, Not Rated), Jiangbolong (301308, Not Rated), and Baiwei Storage (688525, Not Rated) [3][9]. Industry Focus - The report discusses the growing demand for AI, which is driving a persistent shortage in NAND storage. The need for AI computing power is expected to continue influencing storage shortages [7]. - The CXL memory pooling solution is seen as a critical innovation that can alleviate current bottlenecks in memory resources, thereby enhancing the performance of AI applications [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the resilience of A-shares amidst geopolitical conflicts, indicating that China's asset pricing is adapting to a changing competitive landscape, which enhances market resilience [3][4]. - The report identifies two types of inflation assets: new economy and strategic resources, highlighting that capital expenditure in the new economy is on the rise, creating a scarcity-driven demand expansion, while strategic resource security is a necessity under great power competition [3][4]. - The report outlines the need for a capital market that supports asset allocation migration, emphasizing the importance of diversifying resident asset allocation, optimizing resource allocation towards strategic directions, and revitalizing existing assets to support innovation and transformation [5]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a structural bull phase, transitioning to a range-bound adjustment period, with limited adjustment magnitude but a duration measured in quarters [7][8]. - The report predicts that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 will be better than in 2025, with a projected year-on-year growth of 12.9% under neutral assumptions, and an optimistic scenario suggesting a growth rate of 16.6% [8][9]. - The report maintains a mid-term projection of a "two-stage bull market," indicating that the current phase is a transition from structural bull to a range-bound adjustment, with a potential new upward trend starting in the second half of 2026 [9][11]. Group 3 - The report discusses the structural characteristics of the "Bull Market 2.0" accumulation phase, referencing historical experiences from 2014 and 2018-2019, indicating that this phase is characterized by the exhaustion of leading sectors and a decrease in the space for new opportunities [11][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of extending main asset lines and macro narratives, particularly focusing on the AI industry chain and cyclical alpha opportunities, as potential investment avenues during this phase [12]. - The report suggests that the structural bull and comprehensive bull phases are interconnected, with a focus on technology and cyclical alpha remaining as mid-term directions for investment [12].