Core Insights - JD.com has launched a new hotel initiative, including the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program" offering up to three years of zero commission for partner hotels and traffic support for newly onboarded hotels until July 30 [1][2] - The initiative aims to leverage JD's extensive customer base of over 800 million consumers and strong supply chain capabilities to enhance hotel operations and efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy - The new hotel plan is a response to reduced inventory from major OTA platforms, highlighting the urgency for JD to expand its direct hotel connections [2] - JD's high-end customer base, with over 40 million JD PLUS members, and significant daily active users (1.88 billion) provide a strong foundation for monetizing its OTA services [2][3] Group 2: Financial Implications - The zero-commission policy and associated costs for talent recruitment and potential consumer subsidies may pressure JD's short-term profit margins [3] - The scale of investment in the hotel business is expected to be lower than that of the food delivery sector due to its lower internal priority and strategic value [3] Group 3: Industry Impact - JD's entry into the hotel market is expected to intensify competition in the online travel sector, which had stabilized post-pandemic [4] - The extent of competition will depend on JD's investment budget and execution; a potential price war could negatively impact existing OTA platforms' short-term performance [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies have a clear insight into consumer trends and market dynamics, which drives their continuous expansion in the stable lodging and ticket booking sectors [1] - The domestic tourism market is experiencing rapid recovery post-pandemic, with four key factors expected to drive growth: lower-tier market consumers, the affluent elderly demographic, the enthusiastic Z generation, and the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism [1] - The current competitive landscape among OTA platforms is stable, and there is optimism regarding the diversification of domestic OTA platforms to enhance business growth [5] Group 2 - Despite the pressure on travel prices due to the rapid recovery of flights and hotel availability, it is anticipated that the decline in travel prices will stabilize by 2025, aided by structural changes in the travel demographic [2] - The OTA platform industry has become an integral part of daily life for Chinese consumers, with increasing penetration rates leading to rapid market growth [3] - Chinese OTA platforms are expanding their business scope through acquisitions and self-built initiatives, particularly in overseas markets, while also launching vacation services to capitalize on the recovery of inbound tourism and the popularity of customized travel [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.5%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3 billion RMB, up 13.6% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations by 8.3%, driven by strong growth in international business and inbound travel demand [1][2] - The company is expected to increase its investment in international business over the next two years, which may lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term, but this is anticipated to open new growth avenues and greater profit flexibility in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company’s international OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 70% year-over-year, with international business accounting for 14% of total revenue, up from 10% for the full year 2024 [2] - The inbound travel demand saw a 100% year-over-year increase in bookings, benefiting from favorable visa policies [2] Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 79.1%, showing a slight decline due to the increased proportion of lower-margin international business [3] - Management indicated a focus on expanding overseas operations, which may lead to short-term profit margin pressure but is expected to strengthen the company's global positioning and ensure sustainable profit release in the long run [3] Technology Deployment - The management is focusing on the comprehensive deployment of AI technology in business operations, utilizing extensive real-time travel data for personalized travel recommendations and competitive pricing [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.3 billion, 71.3 billion, and 82.4 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.7 billion, 22.5 billion, and 26 billion RMB [5][12] - The target price for the company's US stock is set at $75.50, while the target price for the Hong Kong stock is HKD 563.70, based on a PE valuation method [5][15]