2025年10月8日 证券研究报告 | 社服行业10月投资策略： 双节出游韧性增长，Q 4兼顾高景气方向与周期预期修复 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：张鲁 证券分析师：杨玉莹 联系人：周瑛皓 0755-82150809 010-88005377 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn yangyuying@guosen.com.cn zhouyinghao@guosen.com.cn S0980511040003 S0980521120002 S0980524070006 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 ◼ 行情回顾：9月板块跑输大盘，低估值且存在边际改善信号标的或区域题材相对领涨。2025.9.1-9.30 A股消费者服务板块涨2.69%，跑输沪 深300 5.89pct；2025.9.1-10.6港股消费者服务板块涨0.27%，跑输中信港股通指数6.68pct，其中国庆假期跌1.78%，跑输2.15pct。个股来 看，低估值且出现边际改善信号如行动教育、港股高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that cities aiming to attract and retain the younger generation, particularly Generation Z, should leverage their culinary offerings as a key component of their "soft power" alongside industrial development [1]. Group 1: Importance of Culinary Culture - Culinary offerings are crucial for cities to appeal to Generation Z, who prioritize emotional value and social experiences over traditional consumption patterns [1]. - The Michelin Guide's Bib Gourmand list highlights affordable yet delicious dining options, aligning with Generation Z's desire for high emotional value at lower costs [3][5]. Group 2: City Rankings and Culinary Diversity - As of August 2025, Guangzhou leads with 45 Bib Gourmand restaurants, followed by Shanghai with 30, and Hangzhou and Xiamen with 26 each [4]. - Guangzhou's culinary scene is diverse, featuring various cuisines such as Cantonese, Teochew, and Southeast Asian, with 34 out of 45 Bib Gourmand restaurants having an average cost of under 100 yuan [5][4]. Group 3: Regional Culinary Developments - Hangzhou has improved its culinary reputation, now ranking among the top cities for Bib Gourmand selections, showcasing local Zhejiang cuisine [7]. - Nanjing is recognized for its duck dishes and has 16 Bib Gourmand restaurants, reflecting a rich culinary diversity [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for Traditional Brands - Traditional brands, or "laozihao," are essential for showcasing a city's culinary culture and attracting Generation Z talent, but they face challenges in modernization [9]. - As of August 2025, there are 216 traditional dining brands across various cities, with Beijing and Shanghai having the most [10]. Group 5: Policy Support for Culinary Innovation - Cities are implementing policies to revitalize traditional dining brands, focusing on innovation and cultural integration to enhance their appeal to younger consumers [11]. - The shift in policy focus aims to improve the "self-sustaining" capabilities of traditional brands, making them more competitive in the modern market [11]. Group 6: Emotional and Cultural Value of Food - Food serves as a social connector for Generation Z, who engage with culinary experiences through social media, enhancing their connection to the city [14]. - Culinary experiences provide emotional comfort and cultural understanding, fostering a sense of belonging among young people [14]. Group 7: Future Implications for Urban Development - The article suggests that cities can enhance their attractiveness to global young talent by developing diverse and culturally rich culinary industries, which may significantly influence urban growth [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses how cities can attract young people, particularly Generation Z, through food, emphasizing the importance of culinary culture in urban development [1][8] - Generation Z, characterized by their unique employment and consumption perspectives, seeks emotional value and self-fulfillment rather than adhering to traditional norms [1][8] - The presence of Michelin-starred and Bib Gourmand restaurants in a city reflects its culinary competitiveness and ability to attract young talent [2][3] Group 2 - As of August 2025, 11 cities in China have made it to the Michelin list, with a total of 228 restaurants included in the Bib Gourmand category, showcasing a diverse culinary landscape [3][4] - Guangzhou leads with 45 Bib Gourmand restaurants, where 34 of them have an average cost of under 100 yuan, highlighting the city's reputation for affordable yet delicious dining options [4][3] - Cities like Hangzhou and Nanjing have improved their culinary offerings, with Hangzhou breaking the stereotype of being a "food desert" and Nanjing showcasing its diverse duck dishes [4][5] Group 3 - The article highlights the significance of traditional brands and cultural heritage in attracting Generation Z, with 216 Chinese time-honored brands identified in the restaurant sector as of August 2025 [6][7] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have the highest number of these traditional brands, but challenges remain in modernizing and revitalizing them to appeal to younger consumers [6][7] - Policies across various cities are focusing on revitalizing traditional dining brands, aiming to enhance their market presence and cultural relevance [7][8] Group 4 - Food is seen as having three key attributes for Generation Z: social, emotional, and cultural, which can enhance their connection to a city [8][9] - The article suggests that cities should not only focus on the quantity of restaurants but also on the quality and diversity of culinary experiences to attract young talent [8][9] - Cities like Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing are noted for their ability to attract global young talent through their culinary offerings, while other cities can enhance their livability through affordable dining options [9][10]

当前港股消费的机会 - 对话鹏华基金张羽翔 20250910 摘要 国证港股通消费主题指数聚焦新消费领域，包含 IP 潮玩、茶饮、黄金珠 宝、户外运动服饰及美护等稀缺标的，受益于港股新消费板块的困境反 转逻辑，尤其是在 2025 年经济触底回升的预期下，该指数成分股有望 表现出高品质、高毛利、高增长的特性。 国证港股通消费指数与其他消费指数相比，更专注于新兴高成长性的消 费者领域，降低了家电、食品饮料（特别是酒类）的权重，与中证香港 综合大盘相比，也更纯粹地聚焦新兴消费，避免了互联网平台公司及智 能汽车等行业的干扰。 当前市场处于震荡上行通道，每次调整后的底部空间逐级抬升，政策底 线明确，特别国债发行、消费贷补贴等措施支撑实体经济恢复，大量存 款向权益类资产迁移，新兴高成长性消费者领域受益于政策支持和 Z 世 代推动，结构性机会明显。 Z 世代的崛起是新兴高成长性消费者领域脱颖而出的重要原因，他们追 求个性化、高品质、高科技产品，并愿意为此支付溢价，他们的消费习 惯和趋势引领了未来的重要方向，决定了未来公司和行业的成长空间。 Q&A 港股消费板块的投资机会有哪些？ 港股消费板块在当前市场环境下展现出显著的投资 ...

Group 1: Trend in Toy Industry - The toy industry is experiencing phenomenal growth in 2025, with Pop Mart achieving a revenue of 138.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a pre-tax profit of 61.57 billion RMB, up 401.2% [2] - Pop Mart has evolved from a single blind box manufacturer to an "IP full industry chain operator," with 13 artist IPs generating over 100 million RMB in revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The card game sector, represented by Ka You, is also seeing significant growth, with a projected revenue of 100.57 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 278% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The rise of emotional consumption and the "Z generation" is driving the toy market, with over 500 million people in this demographic expected by 2024, leading to a market size of approximately 600 billion RMB [3] - The toy market is shifting towards mid-to-high-end products, with blind boxes, building toys, and card games leading the growth [4] - The overseas expansion of Chinese toy brands, particularly Pop Mart, is becoming a new trend, with significant revenue growth in international markets [4] Group 3: New Tea Beverage Industry Transformation - The new tea beverage industry is undergoing a transformation, focusing on "quality-price ratio" and large-scale operations, with major brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming achieving impressive market valuations [7] - Mixue Ice City reported a revenue of 148.7 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, with a global store count of 53,014 [8] - Gu Ming's revenue reached approximately 56.63 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, indicating a strong performance in the mid-tier market [8] Group 4: Competitive Strategies and Market Outlook - The franchise model is becoming mainstream in the new tea beverage sector, allowing brands to expand rapidly with lower capital investment [9] - Supply chain management is emerging as a critical competitive advantage, with leading companies focusing on direct sourcing and optimizing logistics to enhance product quality and profitability [9] - The Z generation's increasing demand for health-conscious options is expected to drive the tea beverage industry towards more refined and stable offerings [9]

Core Insights - The upcoming "2025 China Higher Education Blue Book" by Zhangshang University aims to provide in-depth insights into the trillion-level Generation Z consumer market, highlighting the complexity of current college consumption patterns [1][5] - The college consumption market in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with annual consumption for college students reaching approximately 850 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to grow to 1.6 trillion yuan by 2028, reflecting a 5% annual growth rate [1][4] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The complexity of college consumption is characterized by significant regional and urban-rural differences, with varying preferences across different areas, such as a focus on trendy digital products in Beijing and Shanghai versus value-for-money in Southwest regions [4][5] - There exists a contradiction in consumer values among college students, where some indulge in emotional spending while others adhere to minimalist and sustainable consumption principles, indicating a diverse range of spending behaviors [4][5] - The decision-making process for purchases is non-linear, with students showing willingness to spend on certain products while being hesitant about others, reflecting a unique consumption logic [4][5] Group 2: Challenges for Brands - Brands face challenges such as "market blind spots and growth anxiety," "marketing dilemmas and trust gaps," and "strategic misalignment and resource misallocation" when trying to penetrate or deepen their presence in the college market [5] - There is a pressing need for a comprehensive report that systematically addresses these complexities and provides insights for brands looking to engage with this demographic [5] Group 3: Data Foundation - The collaboration between Zhangshang University and Wenzhou University’s Big Data Research Institute since 2017 has established a robust data ecosystem, enabling the collection of extensive, multi-dimensional, and real-time data on college student behaviors [6] - This data foundation allows for a deeper understanding of user preferences, consumption motivations, and underlying trends in the college market, moving beyond simple market share statistics [6] Group 4: Report Focus Areas - The report is expected to redefine consumption decision-making logic, emphasizing the importance of authentic recommendations and social validation among college students, potentially introducing a new decision-making framework [8][9] - It will delve into emotional and value recognition, exploring how trends like "emotional consumption" and "sustainable consumption" influence Generation Z's purchasing behavior [8][9] - The report may provide detailed analyses of consumption patterns based on regional and category-specific characteristics, guiding brands to adopt tailored marketing strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [9]

Market & Consumer Analysis - The Japanese cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth and transformation, with a projected market size of $191.9 billion in 2024 and expected to exceed $260 billion by 2029, indicating stable growth [2] - The consumer demographic in Japan is diverse, with significant segments including the elderly population, which accounts for nearly 30% of the population aged 65 and above, holding over half of the national wealth and prioritizing quality and service [3] - The rise of the "solo economy" is notable, with over half of Tokyo's population living alone, leading to increased demand for small appliances and minimalist home products [4] - Working women in Japan seek efficiency in their purchases, favoring time-saving products in beauty, convenience foods, and home cleaning [5] - Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, is a key demographic, being digital natives who are active on social media and prefer personalized, niche brands [5] Major Platforms - The Japanese e-commerce market is dominated by three major platforms: - Rakuten, the largest local e-commerce platform, holds a market share of 28.8% with over 120 million members, known for high user loyalty [5] - Yahoo! Shopping, with an approximate market share of 18%, offers stable traffic and strong search capabilities, particularly for second-hand goods [7] - Amazon Japan, which has a market share of about 25%, is recognized for its diverse product categories and high consumer trust [9] - New emerging platforms such as Temu, TK, and Mercari are also gaining traction, suggesting sellers should test the market on a small scale before deeper engagement [10] Product Selection Recommendations - Popular product categories for sellers to consider include: - Home and living products that are eco-friendly, convenient, multifunctional, and storage-efficient, such as collapsible storage boxes and smart small appliances [11] - Fashion items, particularly workplace attire, with a preference for minimalist designs, indicating a trend towards simple yet professional clothing [13] - Beauty and skincare products, where Japanese consumers show a strong interest in quality and efficacy, particularly in skincare with whitening, moisturizing, and anti-aging properties [15] Conclusion - The Japanese cross-border market presents both opportunities and challenges, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right platform and adhering to precise product selection strategies for sellers of all sizes to find their niche and achieve growth [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of the jewelry industry driven by Generation Z, emphasizing their preference for personalization, social responsibility, and environmental consciousness, which is reshaping the market from traditional luxury symbols to personalized self-expression vehicles [7][11][21]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The global jewelry market was approximately $340 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%-5% [11][12]. - China accounts for 35% of global jewelry demand, with the market size for jewelry and jade ornaments reaching approximately 820 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [13][11]. - The online sales share in the jewelry industry increased from 13% in 2020 to 20% in 2023, with expectations to surpass 30% by 2026 [15][17]. Group 2: Digital Transformation Trends - The jewelry industry is accelerating its digital transformation, utilizing technologies such as AR/VR for virtual try-ons, AI for personalized recommendations, and blockchain for enhanced customer experience [11][14]. - Brands are required to adopt omnichannel operations and social media marketing to meet the demands of Generation Z consumers [11][15]. - Digital practices include data collection across channels, customer analysis, and growth analytics to achieve precise marketing and user retention [11][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Marketing Strategies - Generation Z is projected to drive over 50% of global jewelry consumption growth by 2030, with a focus on personalized designs and brand stories [21][23]. - The unique characteristics of Generation Z consumers include a preference for customization, digital engagement through social media, and a strong emphasis on brands' social responsibility [21][23]. - Jewelry brands face challenges in providing personalized and digital experiences while effectively utilizing social media and e-commerce platforms for targeted marketing [24][27]. Group 4: Case Studies and Practical Applications - A jewelry brand successfully increased its online channel share to 20% through data-driven optimization of its mini-program layout and membership operations, resulting in improved user retention and repurchase rates [11][14]. - The report outlines a three-tiered data solution for jewelry brands, focusing on data infrastructure, product analysis, and application models to enhance user experience and marketing effectiveness [36][38].

Group 1: LABUBU's Market Performance - LABUBU's unique mint green collectible sold for 1.08 million yuan at an auction, highlighting its exclusivity and high demand [1] - The company's market value reached 347.5 billion HKD, with its founder Wang Ning becoming the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of 20.3 billion USD [1] - The secondary market for LABUBU products shows significant price premiums, with the hidden variant "Ben Wo" averaging 1,200 yuan, over 10 times its original price [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption reflects a shift from traditional value-for-money and functionality to quality and personal satisfaction, driven by technological advancements and new business models [2] - New consumption is characterized by a "consumption grading" phenomenon, where consumers are willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [5] - The Z generation's consumption behavior, emphasizing value and quality, is a key driver of the new consumption wave [5] Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The supply side benefits from ongoing infrastructure improvements and increased digital R&D investments, leading to an intelligent upgrade in consumer goods [7] - Historical insights from Japan's consumption changes in the 1990s provide valuable lessons for understanding current new consumption trends [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment favors high-growth assets, making new consumption a focal point for investment [8] - Performance validation through fundamental research shows promising growth potential in new consumption companies, with one leading Hong Kong stock projected to achieve a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan in 2024, a 188.77% increase [8] - New consumption is seen as a consensus direction for funds, with opportunities in both Hong Kong and A-share markets [8]

Group 1 - HSBC's investment market outlook indicates that policy support and structural highlights will inject positive expectations into the A-share market [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, ensuring efficiency and accuracy, while retaining future policy flexibility [1] - The focus of monetary policy will be on enhancing policy transmission, reducing overall financing costs, and promoting the use of structural monetary policy tools [1] Group 2 - HSBC maintains a positive view on A-shares, particularly favoring high-quality growth sectors [2] - The consensus forecast from Wind indicates that the profit growth rates for AI infrastructure, AI drivers, and AI applications are expected to significantly increase by 2025 [2] - The acceleration of capital expenditure by major Chinese tech companies and telecom service providers is noted, with expectations for cloud business revenue to grow as AI integration deepens [2]