以下文章来源于黄青春频道 ，作者黄青春Youth 黄青春频道 . 看清流量迁徙的切面 作者： 黄青春Youth 来源： 黄青春频道 携程正不动声色走进暴风雨前夜。 -------------------------- 2 月 26 日，携程公布 2025 年第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩，足以让整个互联网行业侧目。 事实上，穿透财报亮眼数据的表象， 携程净利润暴涨的核心支点并非旅游主业。 2025 年全年，携程实现营业收入 624 亿元，同比增长 17%，增速是同期国内旅游消费整体 增速的近两倍（文旅部公布行业增速为 9.2%）； 归母净利润达 332.94 亿元，同比暴涨 94.74%，创下公司成立以来的最高盈利纪录，归母 净利润率突破 50%，与贵州茅台不相上下。 财报显示，2025 年携程 332.94 亿元归母净利润中，"其他收入"达 213.21 亿元，同比飙涨 860%；其中，仅出售印度 OTA 平台 MakeMyTrip 部分股权就入账 170 亿元，而 2024 年全 年"其他收入"仅为 22 亿元。 剔除全年 199 亿元一次性投资利得后，携程核心主业的真实盈利水平清晰显现： 这意味着， 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating income of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with a significant increase in international bookings, contributing to a revenue share of 18% in Q4 2025. The overall booking volume for the international OTA platform grew approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings and improve transaction efficiency, positioning itself to capitalize on new distribution channels [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2026 estimated revenue of 71.68 billion RMB, 2027 estimated revenue of 81.87 billion RMB, and 2028 estimated revenue of 91.82 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.86%, 14.22%, and 12.15% respectively [6] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 16.37 billion RMB, with a significant drop in growth rate to -50.83%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 14.50% and 13.53% in 2027 and 2028 respectively [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 22.94 RMB in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.06 [6] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The company's travel vacation revenue was 1.1 billion RMB, also up 21% year-over-year, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, primarily due to growth in corporate clients [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating by Caitong Securities, highlighting its strong competitive barriers as a leading player in the domestic OTA industry, with outbound and international business being key growth drivers for the medium to long term [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported net operating revenue of 15.4 billion yuan (YoY +21%), exceeding expectations by 3.6%; adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 billion yuan (YoY +15%), and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.5 billion yuan (YoY +15%), surpassing expectations by 7.7% [1] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 71.7 billion yuan, 81.9 billion yuan, and 91.8 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 19.1 billion yuan, 21.9 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan [1] Business Segment Performance - Q4 2025 accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan (YoY +21%), driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings; transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion yuan (YoY +12%), with significant growth in international flight bookings; vacation revenue was 1.1 billion yuan (YoY +21%), benefiting from international service expansion; and business travel management revenue was 800 million yuan (YoY +15%), primarily due to growth in corporate clients [2] - The international OTA platform saw a year-on-year booking volume increase of approximately 60%, with Trip.com becoming a core driver of international revenue, raising its revenue share to 18% in Q4 2025; the company's internationalization strategy continues to deepen, opening up space for long-term growth [2] AI Integration - The AI Agent is not merely a "replacement for transactions" but is reshaping traffic entry points and decision-making processes; the company views AI traffic entry as a new distribution channel, efficiently directing external AI traffic through deeper Agent-to-Agent transactions [3] - The company leverages self-developed vertical Agents, utilizing years of accumulated real booking data, preferences, and high-quality reviews to continuously enhance advantages in real-time pricing, secure payments, and 24/7 global service, thereby improving conversion efficiency and service premium capabilities in the long term [3]

春节假期刚过，携程迎来其2025年第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩，财报显示，携程集团2025全年营收624亿元，剔除投资收益净利润134亿元。2025年全 年国际OTA平台总预订同比增长约60%，全年服务入境旅客约2000万人次。 产业结构性破局 中央经济工作会议明确提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。扩大内需被列为2026年中国经济工作的八大重点任务之首。政策对服务消费的刺激态度明 确，文旅产业作为服务业重要品类，乘数效应显著，有望成为政府扩大内需的政策方向，文旅产业链上酒店、OTA、景区等有望直接受益。 当前促消费新举措陆续出台，或对下阶段服务消费起到明显拉动作用。2025年9月，商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，将统筹利 用财政、金融等手段，优化服务供给，激发服务消费新增量。商务部等三部门进一步印发《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通知》，提出完 善"1+N"政策措施体系，加大服务消费政策支持力度。 值得注意的是，内需增量在扩大，但市场上依然存在品质不足等问题，从供给端来看，有些产品千篇一律，部分景区依然是门票单一化收入结构、一些地方 导游还出现坐地起价和强制购物等问题。 ...

证券研究报告 携程集团 (9961 HK/TCOM US) 4Q25 业绩：境外业务延续高增长 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 2 月 26 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 携程公布 4Q25 业绩，收入 154 亿元，yoy+20.8%，超 VA 一致预期 3.7% （简称预期）。调整后经营利润 32 亿元，高于预期 1.2%；调整后经营利润 率 20.7%，略低于预期 0.5pct，4Q25 销售与营销费用率 28.5%，高于预期 1.3pct，主要由于国际业务拓展的投入。4Q25 国内旅游需求景气，国际 OTA 平台全年总预订量同比增长 60%，全球化业务贡献营收占比提升至 40%， 成为长期结构性增长来源；银发旅游、"娱乐 + 旅游" 等细分赛道表现亮 眼。同时四季度公司宣布董事会组成变更，范敏、季琦辞任董事，任命吴亦 泓及萧杨为新任独立董事。26 年 1 月公司收到国家市场监管总局反垄断调 查，带来短期不确定性，但是我们长期看好公司国内稳健增长、全球化布局 的长期潜力。维持买入评级。 4Q25 收入增长超预期，盈利稳健彰显经营韧性 携程 4Q25 收入 154 亿元，yoy+21%，超预期 3.7%， ...

2026年1月14日，国家市场监督管理总局官网发布公告，依法对在线旅游（OTA）行业巨头携程集团涉 嫌滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查，最终决定处罚其65亿元。此次舆情爆发前两日，携程市值 两日蒸发近千亿港元。 然而，比股价暴跌更值得关注的，是危机演进过程中的一个鲜明反差：一边是监管信号持续释放、商家 怨气长期累积、公众疑虑日渐加深；另一边是携程看似谦恭配合，实则回避核心、缺乏实质性自省 的"沉默式"回应。这种"垄断者的傲慢"与"公关的沉默"，最终共同点燃了这场必然的"爆雷"。 对于肩负特殊使命与社会责任的国有企业而言，携程的教训绝非隔岸观火。它如同一面棱镜，折射出在 复杂的市场与社会期待下，企业治理与舆情风险防控体系的深层命题。 携程的教训，对于国有企业而言，具有比一般民营企业更为深刻和紧迫的启示。国企不仅要在市场中具 有竞争力，而且肩负着政治、经济和社会多重责任，其公众期待更高，容错空间更小。因此，国企的舆 情风险治理，必须超越"公关技巧"层面，升维至"韧性治理"的战略高度。 启示一：建立"社会效益"与"经济效益"的双重评价基线。国企决不能陷入"唯规模论""唯利润论"的陷 阱。携程"带病盈利"的教训警 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of TripAdvisor (TRIP.US) experienced significant movement ahead of its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, with market focus on earnings expectations, institutional ratings, industry environment, and technical factors [1] - In the week leading up to the earnings report (February 4 to 11), TripAdvisor's stock price fell approximately 17.53%, with a volatility of 20.36% and a notable increase in trading volume [2] - Institutions generally expect the company's Q4 FY2025 revenue to be $413 million, reflecting a slight year-over-year increase of 0.42%, but anticipate a loss per share of -$0.134, indicating a shift from profit to loss [3] Group 2 - Wedbush maintained a "Hold" rating on TripAdvisor as of February 6, 2026, but lowered the target price from $20 to $15, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's short-term performance [4] - The travel industry is facing structural challenges, with growth relying on improvements in "value for money." Additionally, competition in the OTA sector is intensifying, and regulatory scrutiny, such as the investigation into Ctrip Group for alleged monopoly practices, may impact the entire sector [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the OTA (Online Travel Agency) sector experienced over 202,000 complaints in 2025, marking a 16.09% increase from 2024, with a notable correlation between complaint volume and holiday travel demand [2][14] Complaint Trends - The increase in complaints is significantly linked to holiday periods, particularly around Labor Day and National Day, with additional spikes during Spring Festival and summer vacations [2][14] - Common complaints include unreasonable refund and change policies for flight bookings, misleading hotel descriptions, and issues with fast-track services at tourist attractions [3][15] Complaint Amount Distribution - Over half of the complaints (56%) were for amounts under 500 yuan, indicating strong consumer awareness regarding their rights even for smaller transactions [4][16] Complaint Distribution by Platforms - A total of 50 OTA platforms received complaints, with 41 platforms having fewer than 1,000 complaints, accounting for only 0.95% of the total. In contrast, 6 platforms received over 10,000 complaints, representing 91.30% of the total complaints [5][18] Complaint Handling Performance - The overall complaint handling performance was positive, with a response rate of 97.56%. Major platforms like Fliggy, Tongcheng, Ctrip, Zhixing, and Qunar had an average response rate of 98.70% for complaints exceeding 10,000 [6][19] Regional Complaint Distribution - Guangdong province had the highest complaint volume, accounting for over 14%, followed by Jiangsu with over 6%. Other provinces like Zhejiang, Shandong, and Sichuan also had complaint rates exceeding 5% [7][20] Gender Distribution of Complaints - The gender distribution of complaints was relatively balanced, with males slightly higher at 50.89% compared to females at 49.11%, showing a minimal difference of 1.78 percentage points [8][21]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，培育服务消费是促消费的重要举措，酒店板块作为出行 服务重要场景有望受益。2025年以来酒店行业RevPAR趋势修复，预计在更长假期时段以及禁酒令对商 务影响的基数下2026年酒店大盘间夜需求中个位数增长。基于商业用地租金下降幅度放缓、资深加盟商 情绪谨慎、头部四大酒店集团Pipeline减少，该行认为2026年酒店行业供给将会降速，高线城市入住率 翻正预期下价格料有弹性，预计头部酒店RevPAR同比实现低个位数增长，将带来EPS超预期和PE提升 的机会。在优先保障成交率和客户体验的基础下，若未来OTA平台降低佣金率，会进一步推动行业连锁 化率提升。建议重视酒店行业贝塔配置机会;同时关注OTA平台的后续规范性发展。 RevPAR趋势修复，2026年酒店大盘间夜需求预计中个位数增长 回顾2025年酒店行业RevPAR同比表现，根据酒店之家1~3月为-5.1%、-3.0%、-2.8%，9~12月依次 为-0.3%、+4.3%、+4.2%、+0.2%，数据回升趋势明确、供给档次结构拉动及新老店差异定价策略下 ADR带动显著，同时全年整体间夜量增长7.2%。展望2026年，考虑禁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for antitrust issues, including big data price discrimination and exclusive agreements, which has caused a significant market reaction [2][11]. Group 1: Regulatory Investigation - The State Administration for Market Regulation has officially launched an antitrust investigation into Ctrip, citing industry issues such as big data price discrimination and exclusive agreements [2][11]. - Following the announcement, Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, reflecting market concerns about Ctrip's practices as a major player in the domestic OTA market [2][11]. - Ctrip has responded by stating it will actively cooperate with the investigation, indicating a shift towards compliance in the platform economy [2][11]. Group 2: Employee Welfare - Amid the regulatory scrutiny, Ctrip is noted for its generous employee benefits, which include a childbirth subsidy of 50,000 yuan for employees who have been with the company for three years [6][12]. - The company also offers 100,000 to 150,000 yuan in subsidies for female employees seeking egg freezing and assisted reproductive services, emphasizing a commitment to being "female-friendly" [6][12]. - Ctrip maintains a hybrid work model, which has garnered positive reactions from employees, contrasting with the pressures of traditional work schedules [6][12][13]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - Ctrip's newly launched "Smart Engine 3.0" signifies its ambition to evolve beyond a simple intermediary platform, leveraging AI to enhance user experience [4][14]. - The AI assistant can generate comprehensive travel plans in seconds, utilizing past consumer behavior and real-time data to provide tailored solutions [7][19]. - Ctrip is implementing AI-driven monitoring to address pricing transparency issues, aiming to detect violations before user complaints arise [7][19]. Group 4: International Business Growth - Ctrip's international business (Trip.com) has seen significant growth, with its share surpassing 14% in 2025, even outperforming major competitors like Booking in Southeast Asia [8][16]. - The company is expanding its global footprint through initiatives like the "First Go China" inbound tourism project and coverage of 20 million travel points worldwide [8][16]. - As Ctrip represents "Chinese service" on the global stage, it carries heightened expectations and responsibilities beyond mere ticket booking [8][16]. Conclusion - Ctrip is at a critical juncture in 2026, facing regulatory challenges while simultaneously investing in employee welfare and technological advancements [17]. - The antitrust investigation may serve as a necessary transformation for Ctrip, while its focus on innovation and human-centric policies could pave the way for a new era in the industry [17].