2026年度格隆汇"下注中国"十大核心资产已正式发布，携程集团（TCOM.US/9961.HK）历经多轮筛选 与角逐，最终入选成为核心资产中消费旅游领域的标杆标的。 以下是关于携程的入选逻辑与深度解析： 2025年国内消费市场虽仍存压力，但旅游细分赛道率先展现明确复苏迹象，叠加十五五规划"居民消费 率显著提升"的政策红利，服务消费成为消费升级的核心方向。作为中国在线旅游（OTA）行业的领军 企业，携程正告别"单一预订平台"的标签，加速推进从"国内OTA龙头"到"全域旅游生态服务商"的结构 性转型。 凭借"国内基本盘稳固+国际业务突围+供应链全覆盖+技术赋能"的独特模式，携程已构建起兼具"抗周 期韧性+成长确定性"的盈利结构。2025年前三季度公司营收470亿元，同比增长16%，调整后营业利润 132.9亿元，同比增长11.5%，在消费大环境承压下展现出极强的稳健性，成为2026年"消费复苏+政策红 利"行情中最具配置价值的核心标的。 | 南旅管理 | 18 | 20 | | --- | --- | --- | | 其他 | 34 | 45 | | 投资要点 | | | | 旅游服务业是国内消费里相对确定有增长 ...

2026年度格隆汇"下注中国"十大核心资产已正式发布，携程集团（TCOM.US/9961.HK）历经多轮筛选与角逐，最终入选成为核心资产中消 费旅游领域的标杆标的。 以下是关于携程的入选逻辑与深度解析： 2025年国内消费市场虽仍存压力，但旅游细分赛道率先展现明确复苏迹象，叠加十五五规划"居民消费率显著提升"的政策红利，服务消费成 为消费升级的核心方向。作为中国在线旅游（OTA）行业的领军企业，携程正告别"单一预订平台"的标签，加速推进从"国内OTA龙头"到"全 域旅游生态服务商"的结构性转型。 凭借 "国内基本盘稳固+国际业务突围+供应链全覆盖+技术赋能"的独特模式，携程已构建起兼具"抗周期韧性+成长确定性"的盈利结构。 2025年前三季度公司营收470亿元，同比增长16%，调整后营业利润132.9亿元，同比增长11.5%，在消费大环境承压下展现出极强的稳健 性，成为2026年"消费复苏+政策红利"行情中最具配置价值的核心标的。 | | 营收结构 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 24年Q1-Q3(亿) | 25年Q1-Q3 (亿) | | 住宿预订 | 164 | 198 | | 父 ...

责任编辑：史丽君 责任编辑：史丽君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S（09961）"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。报告表示，近期携 程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行认为，短期舆论影 响可控，长期而言，集团作为OTA龙头份额大概率不会降低，且对整体业绩影响较小。 该行预计，2026年携程集团境内收入增9%、出境增12%、纯海外增34%，整体收入增速13%，经调整净 利润225.8亿人民币。当前估值约16.5倍，低于历史估值中枢的18倍，建议逢低布局。展望2026年，该行 预计境内酒店价格逐步企稳回升、竞争格局相对稳定的背景下公司境内酒店业务增速有望持续领先行 业，同时Trip.com有望驱动海外业务延续高增长，携程有望持续实现份额提升与利润释放。 中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S（09961）"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。报告表示，近期携 程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行认为，短期 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：新知财商早观 2025年的携程，就像一艘在风浪中调整航向的巨轮，既没有偏离航线，也尚未找到平稳前行的节奏。 文丨新知君 编辑丨新知君 2025年的时间轴行至终点时，携程集团站在了一个充满矛盾的十字路口。 资本市场的聚光灯下，它交出了一份堪称亮眼的年度成绩单：全年营收628.5亿元，同比增长15.8%；归 母净利润386.7亿元，同比激增189.3%，其中三季度经调整净利润同比暴涨221.2%的表现，直接拉动全 年盈利水平大幅提升。中信建投、中金等机构纷纷给出"买入"评级，中信建投更是将目标价上调至 715.52港币，理由是"国际业务突破、AI战略落地见效，核心竞争力持续巩固"。 但与财务数据的红火形成鲜明对比的，是贯穿全年的负面舆情风暴。 从上半年的"大数据杀熟"投诉量同比增长40%，到下半年云南民宿协会联合200余家商家公开指控其"垄 断定价、强制二选一"，再到四季度因柬埔寨旅游合作项目未充分提示安全风险引发用户集体维权，"卸 载携程"的话题多次冲上微博热搜，相关话题阅读量累计超50亿次。 更严峻的是监管层面的压力，2025年下 ...

Industry Overview - The service consumption sector in China has significant growth potential, with the current GDP per capita exceeding $13,000, indicating a shift from goods to service consumption as the economy matures [4][7][24] - The proportion of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented service consumption in China is relatively low, particularly in cultural, leisure, and health sectors, suggesting substantial room for improvement [4][7][24] - Recent government policies at both central and local levels have been introduced to support service consumption, focusing on the needs of the elderly and Generation Z, which are expected to drive growth in health, tourism, and new consumption sectors [4][7][24] Tourism and Travel - The domestic tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with 4.998 billion trips expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [8][46] - The government has implemented various supportive policies to enhance tourism, including the issuance of travel vouchers and promotional activities to stimulate demand [8][58] - The tourism industry is undergoing consolidation, with companies optimizing resources and enhancing operational efficiency to drive high-quality development [8][58] Local Lifestyle - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, although there is significant market differentiation, with high-end dining facing challenges while mass dining remains robust [10][10] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing growth driven by delivery services, with leading brands expanding their store presence despite potential challenges from subsidy reductions [10][10] - Meituan is facing increased competition in the delivery market, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality to enhance long-term value [10][10] Education and Employment - The education sector is gradually recovering, with leading institutions expected to gain market share due to their brand strength and resource capabilities [11][11] - The human resources sector is seeing structural demand recovery, with AI technology providing opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][11] Summary of Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors that combine valuation safety margins with growth logic, particularly in health, tourism, and new consumption areas driven by demographic changes [4][7][24]

公司发布2025Q3 业绩，25Q3 实现收入55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%。 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：刘乐文/陈如练 核心观点 公司发布2025Q3 业绩，25Q3 实现收入55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%。 实现经调整净利润10.60 亿元，同比+16.5%。收入符合预期，利润表现优质。25Q3 经调整利润率 19.3%，同比+1.0pct。10 月中旬正式完成对万达酒管的收购。至25Q3 末公司年付费用户达到2.53 亿， 年累计服务人次突破20 亿，创历史新高。公司不断推进场景、业务、技术等环节的赋能，出境业务持 续向好，预计将持续受益行业心智的提升和业务模式拓展。 事件 用户规模稳步突破，行业心智稳定提升 截至25Q3 末，公司年付费用户达到2.53 亿，年累计服务人次突破20 亿，创历史新高。季度月均付费用 户4770 万也再创新高。 公司推出"新旅人公益计划2.0"，帮助产业链合作伙伴高质量发展。25Q3 公司MSCI ESG 评级升至最高 的AAA。交通业务端，公司"首乘无忧"服务人次环比增超300%，目前服务已覆盖25 个重要空港城市。 公司在哈尔滨、海口等城市设立近20 个会员服 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip stands out as the only internet company in the top ten of the net profit margin rankings in the Fortune China 500 list, showcasing its exceptional profitability with an 80% gross margin and a 32% net profit margin, significantly outperforming competitors like Tencent and Pinduoduo [6][9]. Group 1: Ctrip's Market Position and Performance - Ctrip's net profit surged sixfold to 10 billion in 2022, and by Q3 of this year, it achieved a quarterly net profit of 19.9 billion [6][9]. - Ctrip holds a dominant market share of 56% in terms of GMV in 2024, indicating its strong competitive position [13]. - The company has consistently maintained a high level of profitability, with earnings nearly tripling compared to pre-pandemic levels [34]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like JD, Alibaba, and Douyin have aggressively entered the hotel and travel market, but their efforts have not significantly threatened Ctrip's position [9][16]. - Despite attempts by competitors to undercut Ctrip with lower commission rates and subsidies, Ctrip's established market presence and customer loyalty have allowed it to maintain its leading position [17][20]. - The hotel industry has seen a resurgence, with a significant increase in new hotel openings, yet Ctrip's revenue growth remains robust, outpacing the overall market recovery [23]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Ctrip's business model focuses on "air ticket traffic, hotel monetization," which has created a complex relationship with airlines and hotels, balancing low-margin air ticket sales with higher-margin hotel bookings [20][21]. - The company has built a vast network of partnerships, with over 8,000 domestic and 20,000 global hotel partners, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [26]. - Ctrip's customer service infrastructure is extensive, with over 16,000 employees dedicated to customer support, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [26][29]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry in China is characterized by a high concentration of individual operators, which complicates the relationship with OTA platforms like Ctrip [19][24]. - The rise of hotel chains has increased competition, but Ctrip's established market position allows it to leverage its scale for better pricing and service offerings [21][23]. - The ongoing evolution of the OTA model, with debates over value creation and service quality, highlights the challenges faced by platforms in maintaining their competitive advantages [25].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, primarily driven by substantial other income from the sale of a stake in MakeMyTrip [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's revenue reached 471 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and net profit was 291 billion, up 93.6% [2]. - The Q3 net profit was 199 billion, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192 billion by 3.6% [2]. - Ctrip's revenue in 2023 doubled to 446 billion, with a revenue index of 125, and is projected to reach 534 billion in 2024 [5]. - From 2019 to Q3 2025, Ctrip's revenue had a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation bookings and transportation ticketing are the two main revenue streams, contributing 80% of total income [8]. - In 2019, accommodation revenue was 140 billion and transportation revenue was 135 billion, together accounting for 77% of total revenue [9]. - In 2023, accommodation and transportation revenue indices reached 128 and 132, respectively, indicating a strong recovery post-pandemic [10]. Cost Management - Ctrip has significantly improved its cost management, reducing total expense ratio by 12 percentage points since 2019 [14]. - In 2023, the gross profit margin increased to 81.8%, while the total expense ratio decreased to 56.3% compared to 2019 [16]. - By Q3 2025, Ctrip achieved a gross profit of 381 billion with a gross profit margin of 81.1% [16]. Competitive Landscape - The travel market is expected to see over 6 billion domestic trips and a total spending of 6.5 trillion by 2025, indicating a competitive environment with numerous players [22]. - Ctrip faces competition from various OTA platforms, traditional travel agencies, and new entrants like JD.com and Meituan [23][24]. - Ctrip's unique advantages include a vast hotel resource network, with over 1.4 million global hotel partnerships and nearly 100% coverage of high-star hotels in China [28]. Strategic Advantages - Ctrip has established a strong market position by acquiring competitors and enhancing its service offerings [25]. - The company operates over 7,000 offline stores across more than 300 cities, providing a significant advantage in customer trust and service [31]. - Ctrip's call center, with approximately 12,000 seats, offers 24/7 support, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty [32].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip stands out as the only internet company in the top ten of the net profit margin rankings in the Fortune China 500 list, showcasing its exceptional profitability with an 80% gross margin and a 32% net profit margin, significantly outperforming competitors like Tencent and Pinduoduo [2][5]. Group 1: Ctrip's Market Position and Performance - Ctrip's net profit surged sixfold to 10 billion in 2022, and by the third quarter of this year, it achieved a quarterly net profit of 19.9 billion, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2][9]. - Despite fierce competition from major players like JD and Alibaba, Ctrip's market position remains stable, with a projected 56% market share in GMV for 2024 [9][11]. - Ctrip's success is attributed to its early market entry and aggressive acquisition strategy, which included significant investments in traditional booking centers and other OTA platforms [11][12]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Meituan and JD have attempted to disrupt Ctrip's dominance with aggressive pricing strategies, such as zero commission offers, but have struggled to gain significant traction [12][13]. - The hotel industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a notable increase in new hotel openings, yet Ctrip continues to benefit from its established market presence and operational efficiencies [19][20]. - The OTA market's dual-sided scale effect favors larger platforms like Ctrip, making it increasingly difficult for new entrants to compete effectively [11][21]. Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - Ctrip's business model focuses on "air ticket traffic, hotel monetization," allowing it to leverage low-margin air ticket sales to drive higher-margin hotel bookings [16][19]. - The company has built a robust customer service infrastructure, with over 16,000 employees in its travel call center, enhancing its ability to serve customers effectively [21][24]. - Ctrip's international operations have also seen significant growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 40% [24][27]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry is facing a paradox where both OTAs and hotels rely on each other for business, creating a delicate balance in their relationship [15][19]. - The rise in hotel chain consolidation has shifted some power dynamics, but Ctrip's established relationships and market share continue to provide it with a competitive edge [19][20]. - The ongoing evolution of the OTA model, with discussions around the value created for the industry, highlights the complexities of the market and the challenges faced by both OTAs and traditional hotel operators [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in Q3 2025, with net operating income reaching 18.3 billion yuan (YoY +16%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 19.9 billion yuan (YoY +194%) [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The company's Q3 2025 net operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders showed robust year-on-year growth, driven by resilient domestic tourism demand, high growth in cross-border/international business, and a one-time gain from the sale of MMYT.O [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism and the development of inbound tourism, alongside continuous improvements in its global OTA platform and the application of AIGC in the cultural tourism sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Business - Diverse travel demands are driving steady growth in the domestic market, with significant increases in bookings from remote areas like Urumqi, Hohhot, and Lhasa, which saw nearly 30% year-on-year growth [2] - The company is targeting the silver-haired market, with user numbers and total transaction volume for its "Old Friends Club" growing over 70% year-on-year [2] - Collaborations with several entertainment companies have been established to further drive revenue growth in the youth travel segment [2] Group 3: Outbound Business - The outbound business continues to grow steadily, with cross-border flight capacity recovering to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of 2019 levels [2] Group 4: Global OTA Business - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region, and mobile platforms accounting for over 70% of total bookings [3] - Inbound tourism bookings surged over 100% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining the primary source of inbound tourists, while Europe and the US markets also showed strong growth [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - As a leading player in the OTA industry, the company is expected to benefit from the release of domestic tourism demand, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism, and the deepening of its global OTA business [3] - The company forecasts net operating income of 61.9 billion, 70.1 billion, and 79.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 31.8 billion, 20.4 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to diluted EPS of 48.6, 31.3, and 34.8 yuan [3] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 440.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 678 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]