2025 年11 月18 日公司公告2025Q3 财报，整体实现净营业收入183亿元（YoY+16%），归母净利润199 亿元（YoY+194%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润192 亿元（YoY+221%）。其中交通票务实现净营业收入 63 亿元（YoY+12%），住宿预订实现净营业收入80 亿元（YoY+18%），旅游度假实现净营业收入16 亿元（YoY+3%），商旅管理实现净营业收入7.6亿元（YoY+15%）。 出境业务：持续稳健增长，长途旅行需求不断释放。据公司在财报电话会中披露，2025Q3 行业整体跨 境航班运力已经恢复到2019 年同期的88%，公司出境酒店和机票预订量同比增长近20%、已恢复至2019 年同期的140%水平，展现出强劲的市场竞争力，中国游客不断扩大旅行半径，对长线旅游目的地兴趣 增加，驱动行业持续复苏。 全球OTA 业务：Trip.com 预订持续高增长，入境游表现亮眼。1）2025Q3 国际OTA 平台总预订同比增 长约60%，其中亚太地区贡献显著；目前移动端贡献超过70%的总预订量，是关键增长引擎；2）入境 游显著增长，2025Q3 入境旅游预订量同比增长超100%，亚太 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：利 润强劲增长，关注国际业务长期增量（买入）*旅 游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟》——2025-08-31 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：旅 游需求持续强劲，关注国际业务长期增量（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 2025-05-24 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q4 财报点评：延 续高质量增长，看好国际业务长期增量空间（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 事件: 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | 8.0% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of the "choose one from two" (二选一) accusation against Ctrip, highlighting the risks of monopolistic behavior in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) sector and its impact on market dynamics [4][5][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Competition - Ctrip is currently facing scrutiny after being questioned by the Zhengzhou Market Supervision Bureau, with media focusing on its pricing strategies and potential monopolistic practices [5][19]. - The OTA industry is more complex than the food delivery sector, involving higher consumer decision costs and a longer supply chain, which could lead to greater risks if monopolistic behavior is established [9][10]. - Ctrip's market dominance is significant, with projections indicating it will hold a 56% market share in 2024, far surpassing competitors like Tongcheng (15%) and Meituan (13%) [16][18]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies and Merchant Impact - Ctrip's commission structure places significant financial pressure on hotel merchants, with basic commissions ranging from 12% to 15%, and total costs potentially nearing 30% [11][12][13]. - Merchants have reported that Ctrip's "price adjustment assistant" and "golden card" system may effectively force them into a "choose one from two" scenario, limiting their pricing autonomy and market choices [22][34]. - The article suggests that Ctrip's operational strategies may create a closed market where it dictates terms, impacting the competitive landscape for merchants [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) shares rose over 3%, currently up 3.66% at 595 HKD, with a trading volume of 805 million HKD, driven by increasing tourism demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The tourism market is experiencing a peak in bookings as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach [1] - The Golden Week tourism market is expected to continue growing, supported by the recovery of the domestic tourism market [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - Ctrip is recognized as a leader in the domestic OTA industry, establishing strong competitive barriers in supply chain, user perception, and global resource integration [1] - The recovery of the domestic tourism market provides stable support for Ctrip's domestic business growth, while inbound and international business is seen as a core driver for long-term performance growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ctrip Group-S (09961) is rated as "Buy" with projected revenues of 62 billion, 71.2 billion, and 80.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and Non-GAAP net profits of 19.4 billion, 22.4 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively [1] - Ctrip is recognized as a leader in the domestic OTA industry, establishing strong competitive barriers in supply chain, user mindset, and global resource integration [1] - The recovery of the domestic tourism market provides stable support for Ctrip's domestic business growth, while inbound and international business is seen as the core driver for long-term performance growth [1] Group 2 - Ctrip has been early in adopting AI technology, starting large model research and development in 2013, and has released its first travel-specific large model product [2] - In 2024, Ctrip plans to launch two AI-driven content products that integrate user search data and real reviews, enhancing user engagement and experience [2] - In Q1 2025, Ctrip's AI applications have saved 20% in labor costs, and AI-assisted content production tools have reduced content creation time from 8.5 minutes to 15 seconds, achieving a content qualification rate of over 98.9% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Trip.com Group (09961) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 62 billion to 80.9 billion yuan and Non-GAAP net profit growth from 19.4 billion to 25.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, highlighting the company's strong competitive advantages in the domestic OTA industry and the recovery of the domestic travel market as key growth drivers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Trip.com Group are estimated at 62 billion yuan in 2025, 71.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 80.9 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach 19.4 billion yuan in 2025, 22.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 25.6 billion yuan in 2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - Trip.com Group is recognized as a leader in the domestic OTA industry, establishing significant competitive barriers in supply chain management, user perception, and global resource integration [1]. - The recovery of the domestic travel market provides stable support for the company's domestic business growth, while inbound and international business is identified as a core driver for long-term performance growth [1]. Group 3: International Business Performance - The outbound travel market is rapidly recovering, with the gross transaction value (GTV) for outbound travel in Q1 2025 reaching 120% of the same period in 2019, significantly surpassing the industry average [1]. - In Q1 2025, the volume of flight orders recovered to 95%, hotel accommodation orders to 80%, and vacation business orders to over 70% [1]. Group 4: AI Technology Integration - The company began its AI technology layout in 2013, launching its first travel-specific large model product, and plans to release two AI-driven content products in 2024 [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 20% reduction in labor costs through applications like intelligent customer service and guide service monitoring, while AI-assisted content production tools reduced content creation time from 8.5 minutes to 15 seconds, achieving a content qualification rate of over 98.9% [2]. - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance internal efficiency and external user experience, thereby improving user stickiness and profitability [2].

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited Stock Code: 0780 Investor Presentation August 2025 Disclaimer The materials used in this investors presentation are being furnished to you for your information only, which shall be kept in strict confidence. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (the "Company") or its connected person, or any of their respective directors, officers, employees, advisers or representatives as to, and no reliance should be placed on, th ...

Summary of Tongcheng Travel Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Partnerships**: Tongcheng Travel has formed a strategic partnership with Ctrip to share resources, aiming for mutual benefits and expanding beyond traditional OTA business through acquisitions to deepen its presence in the entire tourism industry chain, including travel agencies and tavern companies, to create new growth curves [2][3] 2. **Market Positioning**: The OTA industry is characterized by a relatively healthy competitive landscape, with Ctrip focusing on mid-to-high-end markets, Meituan expanding into lower-tier local life services, and Tongcheng concentrating on lower-tier markets for long-distance travel. This differentiation allows companies to share market growth while maintaining good profit margins [2][6] 3. **Resource Coverage**: By the end of 2024, Tongcheng Travel aims to cover 720 airlines, 460,000 routes, and 3.9 million hotels, indicating a high entry barrier due to the extensive supply chain it is building [2][8] 4. **Acquisitions and Growth**: Tongcheng Travel is actively acquiring upstream core tourism resources to build a competitive tourism supply chain ecosystem, including the establishment of the Yilong Hotel Technology Platform and a diversified tavern brand matrix. The acquisition of Tongcheng Travel Industry is expected to accelerate product layout and capitalize on the recovery of outbound tourism [2][9] 5. **Financial Projections**: Revenue projections for Tongcheng Travel from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 19.7 billion, 22.7 billion, and 26 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 3.3 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan respectively. The estimated valuation for 2025 is approximately 14 times earnings [3][5] 6. **Investment Opportunity**: The current adjusted net profit for the year is projected at 3.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 14 times, indicating that the current valuation is significantly undervalued relative to the company's growth rate. This presents a good investment opportunity for potential returns [5][10] Additional Important Insights 1. **User Growth**: The daily active users of Tongcheng's app are continuously increasing, indicating a strong user engagement and potential for future growth in the lower-tier market for long-distance travel [8] 2. **Competitive Advantages**: Tongcheng Travel's deep focus on lower-tier markets, combined with the support from major shareholders like Ctrip and Tencent, enhances its resource supply at low costs, making it a formidable player in the OTA space [8] 3. **Profitability Improvement**: The overall profitability of Tongcheng Travel is expected to improve as user marketing strategies are optimized and refined subsidy measures are implemented [9]

Core Insights - The competition in the hotel and travel industry is intensifying, with Douyin, JD, and Alibaba all making significant moves to capture market share [2][3][4] - Douyin is investing heavily in subsidies for the hotel industry, offering discounts and special rates to attract new customers [2][22] - The hotel industry is seen as a lucrative market, with leading players like Ctrip achieving high profit margins compared to other e-commerce platforms [5][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The hotel industry has historically been stable, but recent shifts in online traffic dynamics are prompting major players to deepen their involvement [5][10] - Ctrip holds a dominant market share of 56%, with projected gross margins of 81.3% and net margins of 32.3% for 2024, significantly outperforming JD and Alibaba [5][8] - Meituan's hotel revenue grew from 332.37 billion yuan in 2022 to 430.7 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a consistent revenue share [8] Group 2: Strategic Moves by Major Players - JD's entry into the food delivery market is a strategic move to leverage its large user base for hotel bookings, creating a closed-loop commercial ecosystem [11][14] - Alibaba's integration of Fliggy and Ele.me into its e-commerce group aims to enhance synergies and expand its consumer platform [3][13] - Douyin's approach focuses on content-driven user engagement to convert interest into transactions, utilizing its large user base for hotel bookings [10][22] Group 3: Industry Growth and Challenges - The OTA market is projected to grow, with a 17.8% increase in transaction volume expected in 2024, reaching 2.07 trillion yuan [18] - The supply of hotels is expanding, with the number of hotel rooms expected to reach 17.64 million by the end of 2024, indicating a trend towards standardization and online integration [18] - Despite growth, the hotel industry faces challenges such as declining average daily rates and occupancy rates, with predictions of a 5-7% drop in 2025 [21][22] Group 4: Competitive Strategies - Douyin's competitive edge lies in its ability to offer low prices and attract consumers through its vast traffic pool [22][24] - JD's strategy includes a "three-year zero commission" policy to attract small and medium-sized hotels, enhancing its supply chain capabilities [24][25] - Alibaba's focus on leveraging its existing platforms to drive traffic to Fliggy is seen as a way to capture a larger share of the hotel market [26]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry is intensifying, particularly with Douyin's recent aggressive entry into the market following JD's announcement to expand into the travel sector. This indicates a strategic shift and heightened rivalry among major players like Ctrip, Meituan, Douyin, and others [6][7][8]. Group 1: Douyin's Strategy - Douyin's local life business will invest significant platform subsidies from July 15 to the end of August, aiming to attract users and enhance its market presence [2][4]. - The platform will support live broadcasts from chain hotel brands and offer various promotional pricing strategies, including discounts as low as 60% [4][6]. - Douyin's initiatives reflect its determination to penetrate the OTA landscape and compete effectively during the summer travel season [6][34]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The OTA market is characterized by a "7+2+1" structure, with Ctrip dominating with a 56% GMV market share, followed by Meituan and Douyin as emerging players [12][26]. - The competition is driven by the increasing reliance of hotels on online channels, with some hotel groups deriving over 50% of their orders from OTAs [9][11]. - The rise of short video and live streaming has reshaped the value chain in the hotel industry, allowing platforms to leverage traffic advantages [8][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has evolved through several phases, with Ctrip initially consolidating its position, followed by Meituan's differentiated approach, and now Douyin's aggressive entry [14][15]. - JD's entry into the OTA space is seen as a potential disruptor, similar to the initial strategies of Meituan and Alibaba [15][16]. - The OTA industry is witnessing a shift in power dynamics, with new players like Douyin and Kuaishou building short links between content and booking, challenging traditional OTA models [43]. Group 4: Financial Projections and Growth - Douyin's hotel merchant payment GMV is projected to reach 90 billion yuan in 2024, a 50% increase from 2023, driven by its content ecosystem and merchant support strategies [37]. - The platform's innovative approaches, such as live streaming and targeted promotions, have significantly boosted conversion rates and user engagement [38][39]. - The OTA market is expected to see a redistribution of market share, with new channels capturing over 12% of hotel booking shares by 2024 [43].